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Ontario

Niagara Falls


MPP : Wayne J. Gates (NDP)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Likely NDP

Recent electoral history | Niagara Falls


2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 47.4% 50.8% 48.1% 54% ± 9% PCPO 32.8% 35.6% 36.5% 35% ± 9% OLP 14.4% 9.4% 8.4% 6% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 2% ± 2% GPO 3.4% 3.5% 2.7% 2% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 1%

Niagara Falls 54% ± 9% NDP 35% ± 9% PCPO 6% ± 3% OLP NDP 2022 48.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara Falls >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Niagara Falls

OLP 6% ± 3% PCPO 35% ± 9% NDP 54% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Niagara Falls 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 42% PCPO 41% OLP 10% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 42% NDP 42% OLP 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 44% NDP 41% OLP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 43% NDP 42% OLP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 42% NDP 42% OLP 10% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 44% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 44% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 42% NDP 42% OLP 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 44% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 44% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 41% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 41% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 41% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 42% PCPO 40% OLP 12% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 42% PCPO 40% OLP 12% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 41% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 41% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 42% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 42% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 42% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 42% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 42% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 42% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 42% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 55% PCPO 35% OLP 6% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 54% PCPO 35% OLP 6% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 54% PCPO 35% OLP 6% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Niagara Falls

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 52% PCPO 48% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 51% NDP 49% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 51% NDP 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 64% NDP 36% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 65% NDP 35% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 72% NDP 28% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 58% NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 53% NDP 47% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 58% NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 73% NDP 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 74% NDP 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 52% NDP 48% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 51% NDP 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 52% NDP 48% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 62% PCPO 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 60% PCPO 40% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 51% PCPO 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 51% PCPO 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 54% PCPO 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 54% PCPO 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 55% PCPO 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 55% PCPO 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 56% PCPO 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 55% NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-27