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Ontario

Niagara Falls


MPP: Gates, Wayne (NDP)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Toss up PCPO/NDP
Niagara Falls 42% ± 9%▲ NDP 39% ± 9% PCPO 13% ± 5% OLP 4% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 48.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara Falls 67% NDP 33% PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Niagara Falls

OLP 13% ± 5% PCPO 39% ± 9% NDP 42% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Niagara Falls 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 37% NDP 35% OLP 17% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 36% NDP 35% OLP 17% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 37% NDP 35% OLP 17% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 37% NDP 35% OLP 17% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 37% NDP 35% OLP 17% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 36% PCPO 35% OLP 17% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 36% PCPO 35% OLP 17% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 36% PCPO 35% OLP 18% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 36% PCPO 35% OLP 18% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 36% NDP 35% OLP 17% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 36% NDP 35% OLP 17% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 36% NDP 35% OLP 17% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 36% NDP 35% OLP 17% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 36% NDP 35% OLP 17% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 35% NDP 35% OLP 17% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 35% NDP 33% OLP 19% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 35% NDP 33% OLP 19% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 35% NDP 33% OLP 18% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 34% PCPO 34% OLP 18% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 34% PCPO 34% OLP 18% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 34% PCPO 34% OLP 18% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 34% NDP 34% OLP 18% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 34% NDP 34% OLP 18% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 17% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 17% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 35% PCPO 33% OLP 17% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 35% PCPO 34% OLP 17% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 35% PCPO 34% OLP 17% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 35% PCPO 34% OLP 17% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 34% PCPO 34% OLP 17% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 36% PCPO 36% OLP 13% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 48% PCPO 36% OLP 8% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 49% PCPO 36% OLP 8% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 46% PCPO 37% OLP 9% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 46% PCPO 37% OLP 9% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 46% PCPO 37% OLP 9% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 47% PCPO 37% OLP 9% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 50% PCPO 33% OLP 9% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 50% PCPO 33% OLP 9% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 49% PCPO 34% OLP 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 48% PCPO 34% OLP 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 50% PCPO 32% OLP 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 49% PCPO 34% OLP 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 48% PCPO 36% OLP 8% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 48% PCPO 36% OLP 9% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 48% PCPO 36% OLP 9% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 43% PCPO 34% OLP 16% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 41% PCPO 36% OLP 16% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 42% PCPO 36% OLP 15% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 43% PCPO 37% OLP 13% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 42% PCPO 38% OLP 12% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 40% PCPO 40% OLP 12% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 42% PCPO 38% OLP 13% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 41% PCPO 39% OLP 13% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 42% PCPO 39% OLP 13% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Niagara Falls

OLP <1% PCPO 33% NDP 67% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 64% NDP 36% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 56% NDP 44% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 63% NDP 37% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 66% NDP 34% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 63% NDP 37% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 54% PCPO 46% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 57% PCPO 43% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 52% PCPO 48% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 55% PCPO 45% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 52% NDP 48% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 55% NDP 45% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 59% NDP 41% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 59% NDP 41% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 60% NDP 40% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 52% NDP 48% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 64% NDP 36% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 64% NDP 36% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 64% NDP 36% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 53% NDP 47% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 53% NDP 47% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 69% PCPO 31% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 97% PCPO 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 97% PCPO 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 83% PCPO 17% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 88% PCPO 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 83% PCPO 17% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 80% PCPO 20% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 72% PCPO 28% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 67% PCPO 33% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 67% PCPO 33% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Niagara Falls



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 47.4% 50.8% 48.1% 42% ± 9% PCPO 32.8% 35.6% 36.5% 39% ± 9% OLP 14.4% 9.4% 8.4% 13% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 2% ± 2% GPO 3.4% 3.5% 2.7% 4% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%