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Ontario

Niagara Falls


MPP: Gates, Wayne (NDP)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Leaning NDP
Niagara Falls 43% ± 9%▲ NDP 37% ± 8%▲ PCPO 13% ± 5%▼ OLP 4% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 48.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara Falls 83%▼ NDP 17%▲ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Niagara Falls

OLP 13% ± 5% PCPO 37% ± 8% NDP 43% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Niagara Falls 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP

Odds of winning | Niagara Falls

OLP <1% PCPO 17% NDP 83% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Niagara Falls



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 47.4% 50.8% 48.1% 43% ± 9% PCPO 32.8% 35.6% 36.5% 37% ± 8% OLP 14.4% 9.4% 8.4% 13% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 2% ± 2% GPO 3.4% 3.5% 2.7% 4% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%