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Ontario

Niagara Falls


MPP: Gates, Wayne (NDP)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
Leaning NDP
Niagara Falls 43% ± 9%▲ NDP 38% ± 9%▼ PCPO 13% ± 5% OLP 4% ± 2% GPO NDP 2022 48.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara Falls 80%▲ NDP 20%▼ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Niagara Falls

OLP 13% ± 5% PCPO 38% ± 9% NDP 43% ± 9% GPO 4% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Niagara Falls 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 NDP 46% PCPO 37% OLP 9% GPO 3% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 46% PCPO 37% OLP 9% GPO 3% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 46% PCPO 37% OLP 9% GPO 3% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 47% PCPO 37% OLP 9% GPO 3% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 50% PCPO 33% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 50% PCPO 33% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 49% PCPO 34% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 48% PCPO 34% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 50% PCPO 32% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 49% PCPO 34% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 48% PCPO 36% OLP 8% GPO 4% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 48% PCPO 36% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 48% PCPO 36% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 43% PCPO 34% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 41% PCPO 36% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 42% PCPO 36% OLP 15% GPO 4% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 43% PCPO 37% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 42% PCPO 38% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 40% PCPO 40% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 42% PCPO 38% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 41% PCPO 39% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 42% PCPO 39% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 NDP 43% PCPO 38% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2025-01-20 Stiles NDP leader Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | Niagara Falls

OLP <1% PCPO 20% NDP 80% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 NDP 91% PCPO 9% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 92% PCPO 8% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 92% PCPO 8% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 95% PCPO 5% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 99% PCPO 1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 99% PCPO 1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 97% PCPO 3% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 93% PCPO 7% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 83% PCPO 17% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 88% PCPO 12% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 83% PCPO 17% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 56% PCPO 44% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 72% PCPO 28% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 67% PCPO 33% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 67% PCPO 33% OLP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 NDP 80% PCPO 20% OLP <1% 2025-01-20 Stiles NDP leader Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | Niagara Falls



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 47.4% 50.8% 48.1% 43% ± 9% PCPO 32.8% 35.6% 36.5% 38% ± 9% OLP 14.4% 9.4% 8.4% 13% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 2% ± 2% GPO 3.4% 3.5% 2.7% 4% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%