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Recent electoral history | Niagara Falls


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 57% ± 9% 50.8% 48.1% 55.0% PC 34% ± 9% 35.6% 36.5% 34.5% OLP 6% ± 3% 9.4% 8.4% 6.3% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 2.8% 1.6% GPO 1% ± 1% 3.5% 2.7% 1.6% ONP 0% ± 1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.5% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%

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338Canada Niagara Falls projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Niagara Falls 47% 66% 57% ± 9% NDP 25% 42% 34% ± 9% PC 3% 9% 6% ± 3% OLP NDP 2025 54.95% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara Falls >99% NDP <1% PC <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Niagara Falls

OLP 6% ± 3% PC 34% ± 9% NDP 57% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Niagara Falls 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 42% PC 41% OLP 10% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 42% NDP 42% OLP 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 44% NDP 41% OLP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 43% NDP 42% OLP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 42% NDP 42% OLP 10% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 44% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 44% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 42% NDP 42% OLP 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 44% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 44% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 41% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 41% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 41% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 42% PC 40% OLP 12% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 42% PC 40% OLP 12% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 41% PC 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 41% PC 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 42% PC 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 42% PC 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 42% PC 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 42% PC 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 42% PC 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 42% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 42% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 55% PC 35% OLP 6% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 54% PC 35% OLP 6% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 54% PC 35% OLP 6% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 54% PC 36% OLP 6% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 49% PC 41% OLP 6% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 51% PC 39% OLP 6% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 53% PC 37% OLP 6% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 56% PC 34% OLP 6% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 56% PC 34% OLP 6% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 57% PC 34% OLP 6% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Niagara Falls

OLP <1% PC <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 52% PC 48% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 51% NDP 49% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 51% NDP 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 64% NDP 36% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 65% NDP 35% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 72% NDP 28% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 58% NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 53% NDP 47% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 58% NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 73% NDP 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 74% NDP 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 52% NDP 48% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 51% NDP 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 52% NDP 48% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 62% PC 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 60% PC 40% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 51% PC 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 51% PC 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 54% PC 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 54% PC 46% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 55% PC 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 55% PC 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 56% PC 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 55% NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% PC <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP >99% PC <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP >99% PC <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP >99% PC <1% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 90% PC 10% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 96% PC 4% OLP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP >99% PC <1% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP >99% PC <1% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP >99% PC <1% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP >99% PC <1% OLP <1% 2026-02-18