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Niagara Falls

Latest update: March 20, 2026
N
MPP: Wayne J. Gates
New Democratic Party
Safe NDP
Projection — Niagara Falls → Regional projection — Hamilton-Niagara → All Ontario provincial districts → Ontario projection map → Ontario polls → Back to 338Canada Ontario home → Ontario simulator → Riding roulette! →

Recent electoral history | Niagara Falls


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 56% ± 9% 50.8% 48.1% 55.0% PC 34% ± 9% 35.6% 36.5% 34.5% OLP 6% ± 3% 9.4% 8.4% 6.3% NBPO 2% ± 1% 0.0% 2.8% 1.6% GPO 1% ± 1% 3.5% 2.7% 1.6% ONP 0% ± 1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.5% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%

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338Canada Niagara Falls projection

Latest update: March 20, 2026

Niagara Falls 46% 65% 56% ± 9% ▼ NDP 26% 43% 34% ± 9% PC 3% 9% 6% ± 3% OLP NDP 2025 54.95% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 20, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara Falls >99% NDP <1% PC <1% OLP Odds of winning | March 20, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Niagara Falls

Odds of winning | Niagara Falls