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Ontario

Niagara Falls


MPP elect: Wayne J. Gates (NDP)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe NDP

Candidates | Niagara Falls


PC Party of Ontario Ruth-Ann Nieuwesteeg
Liberal Party Shafoli Kapur
Ontario NDP Wayne J. Gates
Green Party Celia Taylor
New Blue Party Gary Dumelie
Ontario Party Andrew Soifert
Independent Joedy Burdett

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Niagara Falls 55% ± 0%▲ NDP 35% ± 0%▼ PCPO 6% ± 0%▼ OLP NDP 2022 48.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Niagara Falls >99%▲ NDP <1%▼ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Niagara Falls

OLP 6% ± 0% PCPO 35% ± 0% NDP 55% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Niagara Falls 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 42% PCPO 41% OLP 10% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 42% NDP 42% OLP 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 44% NDP 41% OLP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 43% NDP 42% OLP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 42% NDP 42% OLP 10% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 44% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 44% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 42% NDP 42% OLP 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 43% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 44% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 44% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 41% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 41% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 41% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 42% PCPO 40% OLP 12% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 42% PCPO 40% OLP 12% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 41% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 41% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 42% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 42% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 42% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 42% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 42% PCPO 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 42% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 42% NDP 41% OLP 12% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 55% PCPO 35% OLP 6% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Niagara Falls

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 52% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 49% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 36% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 35% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 28% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 47% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 48% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 48% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 62% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 60% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 51% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 51% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 54% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 54% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 55% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 55% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 56% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Niagara Falls



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 47.4% 50.8% 48.1% 55% ± 0% PCPO 32.8% 35.6% 36.5% 35% ± 0% OLP 14.4% 9.4% 8.4% 6% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 2% ± 0% GPO 3.4% 3.5% 2.7% 2% ± 0% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 0% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 0%