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Recent electoral history | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 52% ± 9% 44.8% 42.5% 49.8% OLP 34% ± 9% 13.6% 40.8% 35.7% NDP 6% ± 4% 28.2% 7.8% 6.7% GPO 4% ± 3% 11.7% 4.4% 4.0% NBPO 2% ± 2% 0.0% 2.9% 2.2%

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338Canada Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 42% 61% 52% ± 9% PC 25% 44% 34% ± 9% OLP 3% 10% 6% ± 4% NDP 1% 7% 4% ± 3% GPO PC 2025 49.85% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte >99% PC <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

OLP 34% ± 9% PC 52% ± 9% NDP 6% ± 4% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 43% OLP 42% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 43% OLP 42% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 46% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 46% OLP 40% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 45% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 45% OLP 42% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 45% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 46% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 46% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 46% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 46% OLP 40% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 46% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 46% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 46% OLP 42% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 46% OLP 42% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 45% OLP 42% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 47% OLP 40% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 47% OLP 40% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 46% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 46% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 47% OLP 40% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 47% OLP 40% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 47% OLP 40% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 48% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 48% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 48% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 48% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 49% OLP 38% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 49% OLP 38% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 50% OLP 36% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 50% OLP 36% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 50% OLP 36% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 51% OLP 35% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 54% OLP 33% NDP 5% GPO 4% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 54% OLP 34% NDP 5% GPO 4% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 53% OLP 33% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 52% OLP 34% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 52% OLP 34% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 52% OLP 34% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

OLP <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 58% OLP 42% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 74% OLP 26% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 71% OLP 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 72% OLP 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 78% OLP 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 75% OLP 25% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 74% OLP 26% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 73% OLP 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 71% OLP 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 84% OLP 16% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 82% OLP 18% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 84% OLP 16% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-18