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Ontario

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte


MPP: Downey, Doug (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Toss up OLP/PCPO
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 43% ± 9%▲ PCPO 41% ± 9% OLP 7% ± 4% NDP 6% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 42.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 61%▲ PCPO 39%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

OLP 41% ± 9% PCPO 43% ± 9% NDP 7% ± 4% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 42% OLP 23% NDP 18% GPO 11% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 41% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 41% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 41% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 41% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 41% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 40% OLP 24% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 40% OLP 24% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 40% OLP 25% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 41% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 41% OLP 24% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 42% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 43% OLP 24% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 43% OLP 24% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 42% OLP 24% NDP 20% GPO 11% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 42% OLP 25% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 42% OLP 25% NDP 19% GPO 11% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 40% OLP 24% NDP 18% GPO 15% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 39% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 15% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 39% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 15% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 39% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 15% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 40% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 15% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 40% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 15% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 39% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 15% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 39% OLP 23% NDP 19% GPO 15% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 36% OLP 25% NDP 20% GPO 15% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 37% OLP 25% NDP 19% GPO 15% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 37% OLP 25% NDP 19% GPO 15% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 37% OLP 25% NDP 19% GPO 15% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 39% OLP 32% NDP 14% GPO 11% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 43% OLP 30% NDP 13% GPO 10% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 42% OLP 42% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 8% GPO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 42% PCPO 39% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 42% PCPO 39% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 44% PCPO 37% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 42% PCPO 39% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 42% OLP 40% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 43% PCPO 40% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 44% PCPO 40% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 47% PCPO 37% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 45% PCPO 39% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 43% PCPO 40% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 43% PCPO 41% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 44% OLP 40% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 43% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

OLP 39% PCPO 61% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 58% OLP 42% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 OLP 50% PCPO 50% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP 57% PCPO 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 58% PCPO 42% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 50% OLP 50% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 75% PCPO 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 75% PCPO 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 67% PCPO 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 65% PCPO 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 87% PCPO 13% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 66% PCPO 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 66% PCPO 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 73% PCPO 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 95% PCPO 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 81% PCPO 19% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 68% PCPO 32% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 61% PCPO 39% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 57% OLP 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 69% OLP 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 57% OLP 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 61% OLP 39% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 38.5% 44.8% 42.5% 43% ± 9% OLP 39.3% 13.6% 40.8% 41% ± 9% NDP 15.0% 28.2% 7.8% 7% ± 4% GPO 6.8% 11.7% 4.4% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1% ± 2%