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Ontario

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte


MPP elect: Doug Downey (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte


PC Party of Ontario Doug Downey
Liberal Party Rose Zacharias
Ontario NDP Tracey Lapham
Green Party Tim Grant
New Blue Party Alex Della Ventura
Libertarian Party Erin Patterson

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 50% ± 0%▲ PCPO 36% ± 0%▼ OLP 7% ± 0%▲ NDP 4% ± 0%▼ GPO PCPO 2022 42.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte >99%▲ PCPO <1%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

OLP 36% ± 0% PCPO 50% ± 0% NDP 7% ± 0% GPO 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 43% OLP 42% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 43% OLP 42% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 46% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 46% OLP 40% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 45% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 45% OLP 42% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 45% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 46% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 46% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 46% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 46% OLP 40% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 46% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 46% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 46% OLP 42% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 46% OLP 42% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 45% OLP 42% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 47% OLP 40% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 47% OLP 40% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 46% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 46% OLP 41% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 47% OLP 40% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 47% OLP 40% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 47% OLP 40% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 49% OLP 38% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 49% OLP 38% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 50% OLP 36% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 58% OLP 42% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 74% OLP 26% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 71% OLP 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 72% OLP 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 78% OLP 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 75% OLP 25% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 74% OLP 26% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 73% OLP 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 71% OLP 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 84% OLP 16% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 82% OLP 18% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 84% OLP 16% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 38.5% 44.8% 42.5% 50% ± 0% OLP 39.3% 13.6% 40.8% 36% ± 0% NDP 15.0% 28.2% 7.8% 7% ± 0% GPO 6.8% 11.7% 4.4% 4% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2% ± 0%