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Ontario

Haldimand—Norfolk


MPP: Brady, Bobbi Ann (IND)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
IND likely
Haldimand—Norfolk 39% ± 12%▲ IND 29% ± 9%▼ PCPO 12% ± 5% NDP 9% ± 4% OLP 5% ± 3% GPO 3% ± 3% ONP PCPO 2022 30.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Haldimand—Norfolk 91%▲ IND 9%▼ PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Haldimand—Norfolk

OLP 9% ± 4% PCPO 29% ± 9% NDP 12% ± 5% GPO 5% ± 3% IND 39% ± 12% Popular vote projection % | Haldimand—Norfolk 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO IND January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO 30% NDP 13% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 30% NDP 13% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 30% NDP 13% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 30% NDP 13% OLP 7% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 27% NDP 15% OLP 8% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 27% NDP 15% OLP 8% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 28% NDP 14% OLP 8% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 28% NDP 14% OLP 8% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 26% NDP 15% OLP 8% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 28% NDP 14% OLP 7% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 30% NDP 14% OLP 7% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 29% NDP 14% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 29% NDP 14% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 27% NDP 12% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 28% NDP 12% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 28% NDP 12% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 29% NDP 12% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 29% NDP 12% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 31% NDP 11% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 30% NDP 11% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 30% NDP 11% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 31% NDP 12% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO 29% NDP 12% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | Haldimand—Norfolk

OLP <1% PCPO 9% NDP <1% IND 91% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP IND January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO 22% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 22% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 22% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 22% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 12% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 14% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 15% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 9% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 12% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 19% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 17% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 15% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 8% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 8% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 9% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 10% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 12% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 17% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 13% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 14% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 15% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO 9% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | Haldimand—Norfolk



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 52.2% 57.1% 30.5% 29% ± 9% NDP 23.2% 26.9% 13.9% 12% ± 5% OLP 19.7% 9.2% 7.3% 9% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 3% ± 3% GPO 4.9% 4.1% 4.1% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 2% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39% ± 12%