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Haldimand—Norfolk

Latest update: February 18, 2026
I
MPP: Bobbi Ann Brady
Independent
IND safe
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Recent electoral history | Haldimand—Norfolk


2018 2022 2025 Projection IND 62% ± 14% 0.0% 35.0% 63.6% PC 26% ± 11% 57.1% 30.5% 24.5% OLP 5% ± 3% 9.2% 7.3% 5.5% NDP 4% ± 3% 26.9% 13.9% 4.1% GPO 2% ± 2% 4.1% 4.1% 1.6% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 3.2% 0.7%

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338Canada Haldimand—Norfolk projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Haldimand—Norfolk 48% 76% 62% ± 14% IND 15% 37% 26% ± 11% PC 2% 9% 5% ± 3% OLP 1% 7% 4% ± 3% NDP IND 2025 63.65% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Haldimand—Norfolk >99% IND <1% PC <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Haldimand—Norfolk

OLP 5% ± 3% PC 26% ± 11% NDP 4% ± 3% IND 62% ± 14% Popular vote projection % | Haldimand—Norfolk 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP IND February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 30% NDP 12% OLP 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 30% NDP 11% OLP 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 33% NDP 11% OLP 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 33% NDP 11% OLP 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 33% NDP 11% OLP 9% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 33% NDP 9% OLP 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 36% NDP 10% OLP 10% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 36% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 36% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 36% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 37% NDP 10% OLP 10% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 37% NDP 10% OLP 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 24% OLP 6% NDP 4% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 25% OLP 6% NDP 4% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 25% OLP 6% NDP 4% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 26% OLP 6% NDP 4% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 28% OLP 5% NDP 3% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 28% OLP 6% NDP 3% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 27% OLP 5% NDP 4% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 26% OLP 5% NDP 4% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 26% OLP 5% NDP 4% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 26% OLP 5% NDP 4% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Haldimand—Norfolk

OLP <1% PC <1% NDP <1% IND >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP IND February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 11% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 20% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 22% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 19% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 19% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 19% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 21% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 21% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 20% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 19% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 20% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 20% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 19% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 47% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 46% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 49% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 49% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 48% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 49% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 55% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 54% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 53% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 53% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 54% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 53% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 53% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 56% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 55% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP <1% PC <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2026-02-18