logo
Ontario

Haldimand—Norfolk


MPP elect: Bobbi Ann Brady (IND)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
IND safe

Candidates | Haldimand—Norfolk


PC Party of Ontario Amy Martin
Liberal Party Vandan Patel
Ontario NDP Erica Englert
Green Party Anna Massinen
New Blue Party Garry Tanchak
Independent Bobbi Ann Brady

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Haldimand—Norfolk 64% ± 0%▲ IND 24% ± 0%▼ PCPO 6% ± 0%▼ OLP 4% ± 0%▼ NDP PCPO 2022 30.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Haldimand—Norfolk >99%▲ IND <1%▼ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Haldimand—Norfolk

OLP 6% ± 0% PCPO 24% ± 0% NDP 4% ± 0% IND 64% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Haldimand—Norfolk 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP IND February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 30% NDP 12% OLP 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 30% NDP 11% OLP 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 33% NDP 11% OLP 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 33% NDP 11% OLP 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 33% NDP 11% OLP 9% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 33% NDP 10% OLP 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 33% NDP 9% OLP 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 36% NDP 10% OLP 10% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 36% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 36% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 36% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 37% NDP 10% OLP 10% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 37% NDP 10% OLP 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 37% OLP 10% NDP 10% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 24% OLP 6% NDP 4% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Haldimand—Norfolk

OLP <1% NDP <1% IND >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP NDP IND February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Haldimand—Norfolk



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 52.2% 57.1% 30.5% 24% ± 0% NDP 23.2% 26.9% 13.9% 4% ± 0% OLP 19.7% 9.2% 7.3% 6% ± 0% GPO 4.9% 4.1% 4.1% 2% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 1% ± 0% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 64% ± 0%