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Haldimand—Norfolk


MPP: Brady, Bobbi Ann (IND)


Latest projection: March 5, 2024

IND likely
Haldimand—Norfolk 38% ± 12%▲ IND 28% ± 9%▲ 12% ± 5% 10% ± 4% 5% ± 4% 4% ± 3% 3% ± 2%▲ PCPO 2022 30.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Haldimand—Norfolk 92% IND 8% <1% Odds of winning | March 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Haldimand—Norfolk

OLP 10% ± 4% PCPO 28% ± 9% NDP 12% ± 5% GPO 5% ± 4% ONP 4% ± 3% IND 38% ± 12% Popular vote projection % | Haldimand—Norfolk 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO ONP IND

Odds of winning | Haldimand—Norfolk

OLP <1% PCPO 8% NDP <1% GPO <1% IND 92% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO IND

Recent electoral history | Haldimand—Norfolk



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 52.2% 57.1% 30.5% 28% ± 9% NDP 23.2% 26.9% 13.9% 12% ± 5% OLP 19.7% 9.2% 7.3% 10% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 4% ± 3% GPO 4.9% 4.1% 4.1% 5% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 3% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 38% ± 12%