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Ontario

Durham


MPP: Mccarthy, Todd (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Durham


PC Party of Ontario Todd Mccarthy
Liberal Party Brad Jakobsen
Ontario NDP Chris Borgia
Green Party Sanjin Zeco
New Blue Party James Leventakis
Ontario Party Sheri Thurston
Centrist Party Asif Khan
Independent Fawad Kiyani

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Durham 49% ± 9% PCPO 29% ± 8% OLP 14% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 45.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Durham >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Durham

OLP 29% ± 8% PCPO 49% ± 9% NDP 14% ± 5% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Durham 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 46% OLP 27% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 47% OLP 27% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 50% OLP 26% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 50% OLP 26% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 49% OLP 26% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 50% OLP 27% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 50% OLP 27% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 51% OLP 26% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 51% OLP 26% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 48% OLP 28% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 48% OLP 27% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 48% OLP 28% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 49% OLP 28% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 49% OLP 29% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 49% OLP 29% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 49% OLP 29% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 49% OLP 29% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 49% OLP 29% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 48% OLP 30% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 48% OLP 30% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 49% OLP 29% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 49% OLP 29% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Durham

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Durham



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 32.6% 47.0% 45.8% 49% ± 9% OLP 34.2% 16.8% 24.9% 29% ± 8% NDP 28.4% 31.7% 18.6% 14% ± 5% GPO 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1% ± 1%