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Ontario

Durham


MPP: Mccarthy, Todd (PCPO)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
Safe PCPO
Durham 45% ± 9%▼ PCPO 28% ± 8%▲ OLP 18% ± 6%▲ NDP 5% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 45.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Durham >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Durham

OLP 28% ± 8% PCPO 45% ± 9% NDP 18% ± 6% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Durham 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO 45% OLP 26% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 45% OLP 26% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 45% OLP 26% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 45% OLP 26% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 41% OLP 26% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 42% OLP 26% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 43% OLP 26% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 43% OLP 26% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 40% OLP 27% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 43% OLP 26% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 45% OLP 25% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 44% OLP 27% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 44% OLP 27% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 42% OLP 29% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 44% OLP 28% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 44% OLP 27% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 45% OLP 27% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 46% OLP 25% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 48% OLP 25% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 46% OLP 26% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 47% OLP 25% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 49% OLP 24% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO 45% OLP 28% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | Durham

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | Durham



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 32.6% 47.0% 45.8% 45% ± 9% OLP 34.2% 16.8% 24.9% 28% ± 8% NDP 28.4% 31.7% 18.6% 18% ± 6% GPO 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1% ± 1%