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Ontario

Kenora—Rainy River


MPP : Greg Rickford (PCPO)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe PCPO

Recent electoral history | Kenora—Rainy River


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 29.5% 48.4% 59.4% 60% ± 11% NDP 52.7% 37.5% 19.9% 18% ± 9% OLP 14.9% 10.6% 11.4% 18% ± 8% GPO 2.9% 3.6% 3.8% 2% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2% ± 3%

Kenora—Rainy River 60% ± 11% PCPO 18% ± 9%▼ NDP 18% ± 8%▲ OLP PCPO 2022 59.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Kenora—Rainy River >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Kenora—Rainy River

OLP 18% ± 8% PCPO 60% ± 11% NDP 18% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Kenora—Rainy River 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 60% NDP 16% OLP 14% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 61% NDP 16% OLP 14% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 64% NDP 16% OLP 14% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 64% NDP 15% OLP 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 63% NDP 16% OLP 14% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 64% OLP 15% NDP 14% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 64% OLP 15% NDP 14% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 65% OLP 14% NDP 14% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 64% NDP 14% OLP 14% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 64% OLP 14% NDP 14% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 64% NDP 15% OLP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 64% NDP 14% OLP 14% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 65% OLP 15% NDP 14% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 65% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 66% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 66% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 67% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 67% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 65% OLP 16% NDP 13% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 66% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 66% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 66% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 66% OLP 16% NDP 13% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 66% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 65% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 65% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 65% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 66% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 66% OLP 15% NDP 13% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 60% NDP 19% OLP 17% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 60% NDP 19% OLP 17% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO 60% NDP 18% OLP 18% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Kenora—Rainy River

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-27