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Ontario

York—Simcoe


MPP: Mulroney, Caroline (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | York—Simcoe


Liberal Party Fatima Chaudhry
Ontario NDP Justin Graham
Green Party Jennifer Baron
New Blue Party Brent Fellman
Ontario Party Alana Hollander
Libertarian Party Sean Conroy
Moderate Party Franco Colavecchia

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

York—Simcoe 59% ± 9%▲ PCPO 21% ± 7% OLP 9% ± 4% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 56.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York—Simcoe >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | York—Simcoe

OLP 21% ± 7% PCPO 59% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 4% GPO 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | York—Simcoe 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 56% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 56% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 59% OLP 19% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 60% OLP 18% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 59% OLP 19% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 59% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 59% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 60% OLP 19% NDP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 60% OLP 19% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 58% OLP 21% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 58% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 58% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 58% OLP 21% NDP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 58% OLP 21% NDP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 58% OLP 21% NDP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 58% OLP 21% NDP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 59% OLP 21% NDP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 59% OLP 21% NDP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 58% OLP 22% NDP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 58% OLP 22% NDP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 58% OLP 21% NDP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 59% OLP 21% NDP 9% GPO 8% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | York—Simcoe

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | York—Simcoe



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 40.1% 57.3% 56.8% 59% ± 9% OLP 35.2% 13.6% 17.3% 21% ± 7% NDP 17.6% 23.4% 11.1% 9% ± 4% GPO 6.2% 4.8% 7.3% 8% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 1% ± 1%