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Ontario

York—Simcoe


MPP: Mulroney, Caroline (PCPO)

Latest projection: October 9, 2024
Safe PCPO
York—Simcoe 55% ± 9%▼ PCPO 18% ± 6% OLP 11% ± 5%▲ NDP 10% ± 5%▲ GPO 3% ± 3% NBPO PCPO 2022 56.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York—Simcoe >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | October 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | York—Simcoe

OLP 18% ± 6% PCPO 55% ± 9% NDP 11% ± 5% GPO 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | York—Simcoe 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO October 9, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 55% OLP 22% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 53% OLP 22% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 53% OLP 22% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 53% OLP 21% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 53% OLP 21% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 53% OLP 22% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 53% OLP 22% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 53% OLP 22% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 52% OLP 23% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 54% OLP 22% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 54% OLP 22% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 54% OLP 22% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 53% OLP 22% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 53% OLP 21% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 52% OLP 21% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 50% OLP 26% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 50% OLP 26% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 49% OLP 25% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 48% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 48% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 48% OLP 25% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 48% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 48% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 48% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 48% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 49% OLP 24% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 51% OLP 23% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 52% OLP 22% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 54% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 57% OLP 17% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 56% OLP 17% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 56% OLP 18% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 56% OLP 18% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 56% OLP 18% NDP 10% GPO 8% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 56% OLP 18% NDP 11% GPO 8% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 50% OLP 18% NDP 12% GPO 11% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 51% OLP 18% NDP 12% GPO 11% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 52% OLP 18% NDP 12% GPO 10% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 52% OLP 18% NDP 12% GPO 10% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 50% OLP 19% NDP 12% GPO 11% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 52% OLP 18% NDP 12% GPO 10% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 55% OLP 17% NDP 12% GPO 10% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 54% OLP 19% NDP 12% GPO 10% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 54% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 9% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 52% OLP 22% NDP 11% GPO 9% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 53% OLP 21% NDP 11% GPO 10% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 11% GPO 9% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 54% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 9% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 55% OLP 18% NDP 11% GPO 10% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 57% OLP 18% NDP 10% GPO 9% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 55% OLP 18% NDP 11% GPO 10% 2024-10-09

Odds of winning | York—Simcoe

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO October 9, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09

Recent electoral history | York—Simcoe



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 40.1% 57.3% 56.8% 55% ± 9% OLP 35.2% 13.6% 17.3% 18% ± 6% NDP 17.6% 23.4% 11.1% 11% ± 5% GPO 6.2% 4.8% 7.3% 10% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 3% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 1% ± 2%