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York—Simcoe

Latest update: May 24, 2026
PC
MPP: Caroline Mulroney
Ontario PC
Safe PCPO
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Recent electoral history | York—Simcoe


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 53% ± 9% 57.3% 56.8% 59.4% OLP 30% ± 8% 13.6% 17.3% 23.9% NDP 8% ± 4% 23.4% 11.1% 7.7% GPO 5% ± 3% 4.8% 7.3% 4.8% NBPO 2% ± 2% 0.0% 4.5% 2.0% ONP 1% ± 1% 0.0% 1.9% 0.8%

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338Canada York—Simcoe projection

Latest update: May 24, 2026

York—Simcoe 44% 62% 53% ± 9% ▼ PC 21% 38% 30% ± 8% ▲ OLP 4% 12% 8% ± 4% NDP 2% 8% 5% ± 3% GPO PC 2025 59.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 24, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York—Simcoe >99% PC <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 24, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | York—Simcoe

Odds of winning | York—Simcoe