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Ontario

Brantford—Brant


MPP: Bouma, Will (PCPO)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Safe PCPO
Brantford—Brant 46% ± 9%▲ PCPO 24% ± 7%▲ NDP 16% ± 6% OLP 9% ± 5% GPO 3% ± 2%▼ NBPO PCPO 2022 44.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Brantford—Brant >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Brantford—Brant

OLP 16% ± 6% PCPO 46% ± 9% NDP 24% ± 7% GPO 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Brantford—Brant 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 43% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 7% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 15% GPO 7% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 42% NDP 28% OLP 17% GPO 7% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 43% NDP 27% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 44% NDP 27% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 43% NDP 27% OLP 16% GPO 7% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 15% GPO 6% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 42% NDP 28% OLP 16% GPO 6% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 41% NDP 26% OLP 18% GPO 7% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 41% NDP 26% OLP 18% GPO 7% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 41% NDP 26% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 39% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 39% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 39% NDP 28% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 40% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 40% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 40% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 39% NDP 27% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 37% NDP 29% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 37% NDP 32% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 37% NDP 32% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 37% NDP 32% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 38% NDP 32% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 40% NDP 31% OLP 13% GPO 9% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 44% NDP 28% OLP 13% GPO 7% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 44% NDP 29% OLP 13% GPO 7% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 44% NDP 27% OLP 13% GPO 8% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 44% NDP 26% OLP 14% GPO 8% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 44% NDP 27% OLP 14% GPO 8% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 44% NDP 27% OLP 13% GPO 8% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 39% NDP 29% OLP 13% GPO 10% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 40% NDP 29% OLP 13% GPO 10% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 41% NDP 29% OLP 13% GPO 9% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 41% NDP 28% OLP 13% GPO 9% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 39% NDP 30% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 41% NDP 29% OLP 13% GPO 9% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 13% GPO 9% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 14% GPO 9% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 41% NDP 25% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 42% NDP 24% OLP 18% GPO 9% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 43% NDP 25% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 43% NDP 24% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 44% NDP 24% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 46% NDP 23% OLP 15% GPO 9% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 44% NDP 24% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 45% NDP 23% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 46% NDP 24% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Brantford—Brant

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 93% NDP 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 86% NDP 14% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 86% NDP 14% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 86% NDP 14% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 87% NDP 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Brantford—Brant



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 29.5% 42.0% 44.2% 46% ± 9% NDP 27.4% 40.9% 28.3% 24% ± 7% OLP 37.9% 9.5% 13.0% 16% ± 6% GPO 4.0% 4.7% 6.8% 9% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 3% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1% ± 1%