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Ontario


Don Valley East


MPP: Shamji, Adil (OLP)


Latest projection: April 4, 2024

Likely OLP
Don Valley East 47% ± 10%▼ 30% ± 9%▲ 14% ± 6%▲ 5% ± 4% OLP 2022 43.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 4, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Don Valley East >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | April 4, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Don Valley East

OLP 47% ± 10% PCPO 30% ± 9% NDP 14% ± 6% GPO 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Don Valley East 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Don Valley East

OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Don Valley East



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 58.7% 35.9% 43.9% 47% ± 10% PCPO 24.3% 33.1% 32.1% 30% ± 9% NDP 12.0% 27.4% 15.5% 14% ± 6% GPO 3.4% 2.5% 4.1% 5% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1%