logo
Ontario

Recent electoral history | Don Valley East


2018 2022 2025 Projection OLP 55% ± 11% 35.9% 43.9% 56.6% PC 34% ± 10% 33.1% 32.1% 32.3% NDP 7% ± 5% 27.4% 15.5% 7.6% GPO 3% ± 3% 2.5% 4.1% 2.8%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Ontario flag

338Canada Don Valley East projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Don Valley East 45% 66% 55% ± 11% OLP 24% 44% 34% ± 10% PC 3% 12% 7% ± 5% NDP OLP 2025 56.61% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Don Valley East >99% OLP <1% PC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Don Valley East

OLP 55% ± 11% PC 34% ± 10% NDP 7% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Don Valley East 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 OLP 44% PC 35% NDP 13% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 44% PC 35% NDP 12% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 43% PC 38% NDP 12% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 42% PC 39% NDP 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 43% PC 38% NDP 12% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 44% PC 38% NDP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 44% PC 38% NDP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 43% PC 39% NDP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 43% PC 39% NDP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 43% PC 39% NDP 11% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 42% PC 39% NDP 12% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 43% PC 39% NDP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 44% PC 39% NDP 11% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 44% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 44% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 45% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 45% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 45% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 46% PC 38% NDP 10% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 46% PC 38% NDP 10% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 45% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 45% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 45% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 45% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 45% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 45% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 45% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 45% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 45% PC 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 57% PC 32% NDP 8% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 56% PC 33% NDP 8% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 57% PC 32% NDP 7% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 OLP 56% PC 33% NDP 7% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 OLP 54% PC 36% NDP 6% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 OLP 55% PC 36% NDP 6% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 OLP 54% PC 36% NDP 7% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 OLP 55% PC 34% NDP 7% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 OLP 55% PC 34% NDP 7% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 OLP 55% PC 34% NDP 7% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Don Valley East

OLP >99% PC <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 OLP 91% PC 9% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 90% PC 10% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 73% PC 27% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 72% PC 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 77% PC 23% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 79% PC 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 79% PC 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 71% PC 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 73% PC 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 77% PC 23% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 70% PC 30% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 73% PC 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 76% PC 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 78% PC 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 79% PC 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 81% PC 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 81% PC 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 81% PC 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 90% PC 10% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 87% PC 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 83% PC 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 83% PC 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 84% PC 16% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 84% PC 16% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 84% PC 16% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 84% PC 16% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 84% PC 16% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 81% PC 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 81% PC 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP >99% NDP <1% PC <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 OLP >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 OLP 99% PC 1% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 OLP >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 OLP >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 OLP >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 OLP >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 OLP >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-18