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Ontario

Don Valley East


MPP: Shamji, Adil (OLP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Leaning OLP

Candidates | Don Valley East


PC Party of Ontario Roger Gingerich
Liberal Party Adil Shamji
Ontario NDP Frank Chu
Green Party Joshua Miersch
Moderate Party Krasimir Penkov

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Don Valley East 45% ± 10% OLP 39% ± 9% PCPO 10% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPO OLP 2022 43.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Don Valley East 83% OLP 17% PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Don Valley East

OLP 45% ± 10% PCPO 39% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 5% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Don Valley East 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 44% PCPO 35% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 44% PCPO 35% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 43% PCPO 38% NDP 12% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 42% PCPO 39% NDP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 43% PCPO 38% NDP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 44% PCPO 38% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 44% PCPO 38% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 43% PCPO 39% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 43% PCPO 39% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 43% PCPO 39% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 42% PCPO 39% NDP 12% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 43% PCPO 39% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 44% PCPO 39% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 44% PCPO 39% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 44% PCPO 39% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 45% PCPO 39% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 45% PCPO 39% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 45% PCPO 39% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 46% PCPO 38% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 46% PCPO 38% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 45% PCPO 39% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 45% PCPO 39% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Don Valley East

OLP 83% PCPO 17% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 91% PCPO 9% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 90% PCPO 10% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 73% PCPO 27% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 72% PCPO 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 77% PCPO 23% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 79% PCPO 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 79% PCPO 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 71% PCPO 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 73% PCPO 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 77% PCPO 23% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 70% PCPO 30% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 73% PCPO 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 76% PCPO 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 78% PCPO 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 79% PCPO 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 81% PCPO 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 81% PCPO 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 81% PCPO 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 90% PCPO 10% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 87% PCPO 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 83% PCPO 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 83% PCPO 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Don Valley East



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 58.7% 35.9% 43.9% 45% ± 10% PCPO 24.3% 33.1% 32.1% 39% ± 9% NDP 12.0% 27.4% 15.5% 10% ± 5% GPO 3.4% 2.5% 4.1% 4% ± 3%