logo
logo
Ontario

Thornhill


MPP: Smith, Laura (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Thornhill


PC Party of Ontario Laura Smith
Liberal Party Ben Dooley
Ontario NDP Faiz Qureshi
Green Party Marcelo Levy
New Blue Party Luca Mele
Moderate Party Aleksei Polyakov

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Thornhill 54% ± 9% PCPO 34% ± 9% OLP 6% ± 3% NDP 4% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 53.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thornhill >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Thornhill

OLP 34% ± 9% PCPO 54% ± 9% NDP 6% ± 3% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Thornhill 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 52% OLP 32% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 52% OLP 32% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 56% OLP 30% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 56% OLP 30% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 55% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 55% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 55% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 56% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 56% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 53% OLP 33% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 54% OLP 32% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 54% OLP 33% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 54% OLP 33% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 54% OLP 33% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 53% OLP 35% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 53% OLP 34% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 6% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Thornhill

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Thornhill



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 44.7% 61.1% 53.3% 54% ± 9% OLP 43.3% 14.8% 29.7% 34% ± 9% NDP 8.0% 19.3% 7.8% 6% ± 3% GPO 2.4% 2.2% 3.3% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 1% ± 1%