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Ontario

Thornhill


MPP: Smith, Laura (PCPO)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
Likely PCPO
Thornhill 51% ± 9%▼ PCPO 33% ± 9%▲ OLP 8% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 53.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Thornhill >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Thornhill

OLP 33% ± 9% PCPO 51% ± 9% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Thornhill 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO 52% OLP 30% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 52% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 52% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 52% OLP 30% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 48% OLP 32% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 48% OLP 32% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 49% OLP 32% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 49% OLP 31% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 49% OLP 31% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 52% OLP 30% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 50% OLP 32% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 50% OLP 33% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 49% OLP 34% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 50% OLP 32% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 51% OLP 32% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 52% OLP 30% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 54% OLP 30% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 52% OLP 31% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 53% OLP 30% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 55% OLP 29% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO 51% OLP 33% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | Thornhill

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | Thornhill



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 44.7% 61.1% 53.3% 51% ± 9% OLP 43.3% 14.8% 29.7% 33% ± 9% NDP 8.0% 19.3% 7.8% 8% ± 4% GPO 2.4% 2.2% 3.3% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1% ± 1%