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Ontario

Oakville North—Burlington


MPP: Triantafilopoulos, Effie (PCPO)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Likely PCPO
Oakville North—Burlington 50% ± 9%▲ PCPO 34% ± 8%▼ OLP 9% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 47.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oakville North—Burlington >99%▲ PCPO <1%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Oakville North—Burlington

OLP 34% ± 8% PCPO 50% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 4% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Oakville North—Burlington 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 12% GPO 4% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 39% PCPO 38% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 40% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 41% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 40% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 39% OLP 35% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 40% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 40% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 40% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 40% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 46% OLP 36% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 46% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 46% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 46% OLP 36% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 43% OLP 37% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 43% OLP 37% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 44% OLP 36% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 44% OLP 36% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 41% OLP 38% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 44% OLP 36% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 45% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 44% OLP 38% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 42% OLP 40% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 44% OLP 39% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 45% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 46% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 50% OLP 34% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Oakville North—Burlington

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 62% OLP 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 57% OLP 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 63% OLP 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 62% OLP 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 57% OLP 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 53% OLP 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 63% OLP 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 68% OLP 32% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 69% OLP 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 68% OLP 32% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 71% OLP 29% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 73% OLP 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 73% OLP 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 80% OLP 20% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 80% OLP 20% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 79% OLP 21% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 81% OLP 19% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 92% OLP 8% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 85% OLP 15% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 85% OLP 15% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 71% OLP 29% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 86% OLP 14% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 82% OLP 18% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Oakville North—Burlington



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 36.8% 46.4% 47.2% 50% ± 9% OLP 46.1% 24.4% 35.3% 34% ± 8% NDP 11.7% 24.4% 9.9% 9% ± 4% GPO 3.4% 3.7% 4.3% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0% ± 1%