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Ontario

Oakville North—Burlington


MPP: Triantafilopoulos, Effie (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Oakville North—Burlington


PC Party of Ontario Effie Triantafilopoulos
Liberal Party Kaniz Mouli
Ontario NDP Caleb Smolenaars
Green Party Ali Hosny
New Blue Party Charles Wroblewski

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Oakville North—Burlington 48% ± 9% PCPO 39% ± 9% OLP 7% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 47.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oakville North—Burlington 92%▲ PCPO 8%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Oakville North—Burlington

OLP 39% ± 9% PCPO 48% ± 9% NDP 7% ± 4% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Oakville North—Burlington 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 49% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 50% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 49% OLP 36% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 49% OLP 36% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 49% OLP 36% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 50% OLP 36% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 50% OLP 36% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 47% OLP 38% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 48% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 48% OLP 38% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 47% OLP 40% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 47% OLP 40% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Oakville North—Burlington

OLP 8% PCPO 92% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 87% OLP 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Oakville North—Burlington



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 36.8% 46.4% 47.2% 48% ± 9% OLP 46.1% 24.4% 35.3% 39% ± 9% NDP 11.7% 24.4% 9.9% 7% ± 4% GPO 3.4% 3.7% 4.3% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 1% ± 1%