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Progressive Conservative Party

Latest update: May 24, 2026
LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 202543.0%
Current vote projection37.7% ± 4.1%
Current number of MPP79
Current seat projection53 [39-69]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | May 24, 2026 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PC 338Canada Ontario 4.5 seat/% [39-69] 38% ± 4% 2018 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | May 24, 2026

28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 33.5% ▼ 37.7% ± 4.1% ▼ Max. 41.8% ▼ 2025 43.0% Probabilities % PC

Seat projection | May 24, 2026

21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 39 ▼ 53 ▼ Majority 63 seats Max. 69 ▼ 2025 80 seats Probabilities % PC

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Timmins
George Pirie
 PC Safe PCPO
2.
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Nolan Quinn
 PC Safe PCPO
3.
Kenora—Rainy River
Greg Rickford
 PC Safe PCPO
4.
Essex
Anthony Leardi
 PC Safe PCPO
5.
Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Trevor Jones
 PC Safe PCPO
6.
York—Simcoe
Caroline Mulroney
 PC Safe PCPO
7.
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Michael Tibollo
 PC Safe PCPO
8.
Nipissing
Vic Fedeli
 PC Safe PCPO
9.
Sarnia—Lambton
Bob Bailey
 PC Safe PCPO
10.
King—Vaughan
Stephen Lecce
 PC Safe PCPO
11.
Thornhill
Laura Smith
 PC Safe PCPO
12.
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Billy Denault
 PC Safe PCPO
13.
Oxford
Ernie Hardeman
 PC Safe PCPO
14.
Etobicoke North
Doug Ford
 PC Safe PCPO
15.
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Rob Flack
 PC Safe PCPO
16.
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Laurie Scott
 PC Safe PCPO
17.
Brantford—Brant
Will Bouma
 PC Safe PCPO
18.
Dufferin—Caledon
Sylvia Jones
 PC Likely PCPO
19.
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Stephen Pinsonneault
 PC Likely PCPO
20.
Barrie—Innisfil
Andrea Khanjin
 PC Likely PCPO
21.
Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes
Steve Clark
 PC Likely PCPO
22.
Markham—Unionville
Billy Pang
 PC Likely PCPO
23.
Niagara West
Sam Oosterhoff
 PC Likely PCPO
24.
Brampton North
Graham Mcgregor
 PC Likely PCPO
25.
Windsor—Tecumseh
Andrew Dowie
 PC Likely PCPO
26.
Simcoe North
Jill Dunlop
 PC Likely PCPO
27.
Huron—Bruce
Lisa Thompson
 PC Likely PCPO
28.
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Kevin Holland
 PC Likely PCPO
29.
York Centre
Michael Kerzner
 PC Likely PCPO
30.
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Jess Dixon
 PC Likely PCPO
31.
Brampton West
Amarjot Sandhu
 PC Likely PCPO
32.
Scarborough North
Raymond Cho
 PC Likely PCPO
33.
Durham
Todd Mccarthy
 PC Likely PCPO
34.
Algoma—Manitoulin
Bill Rosenberg
 PC Likely PCPO
35.
Brampton East
Hardeep Grewal
 PC Likely PCPO
36.
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Michael Parsa
 PC Likely PCPO
37.
Simcoe—Grey
Brian Saunderson
 PC Leaning PCPO
38.
Perth—Wellington
Matthew Rae
 PC Leaning PCPO
39.
Wellington—Halton Hills
Joseph Racinsky
 PC Leaning PCPO
40.
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Ric Bresee
 PC Leaning PCPO
41.
Brampton South
Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria
 PC Leaning PCPO
42.
Northumberland—Peterborough South
David Piccini
 PC Leaning PCPO
43.
Richmond Hill
Daisy Wai
 PC Leaning PCPO
44.
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Donna Skelly
 PC Leaning PCPO
45.
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
John Jordan
 PC Leaning PCPO
46.
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Paul Vickers
 PC Leaning PCPO
47.
Brampton Centre
Charmaine Williams
 PC Leaning PCPO
48.
Bay of Quinte
Tyler Allsopp
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
49.
Kitchener—Conestoga
Mike Harris
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
50.
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Vijay Thanigasalam
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
51.
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Doug Downey
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
52.
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Stéphane Sarrazin
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
53.
Scarborough—Agincourt
Aris Babikian
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
54.
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Neil Lumsden
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
55.
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Graydon Smith
 PC Toss up PC/GPO
56.
Markham—Thornhill
Logan Kanapathi
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
57.
Etobicoke Centre
Kinga Surma
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
58.
Mississauga—Malton
Deepak Anand
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
59.
Carleton
George Darouze
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
60.
Cambridge
Brian Riddell
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
61.
Hamilton Mountain
Monica Ciriello
 PC Leaning OLP
62.
Markham—Stouffville
Paul Calandra
 PC Leaning OLP
63.
Scarborough Centre
David Smith
 PC Leaning OLP
64.
Willowdale
Stan Cho
 PC Leaning OLP
65.
Sault Ste. Marie
Chris Scott [Elected as PC]
 I Leaning NDP
66.
Oakville North—Burlington
Effie Triantafilopoulos
 PC Leaning OLP
67.
Pickering—Uxbridge
Peter Bethlenfalvy
 PC Leaning OLP
68.
Whitby
Lorne Coe
 PC Leaning OLP
69.
Humber River—Black Creek
Tom Rakocevic
 N Toss up OLP/PC/NDP
70.
Eglinton—Lawrence
Michelle Cooper
 PC Leaning OLP
71.
York South—Weston
Mohamed Firin
 PC Leaning OLP
72.
Peterborough—Kawartha
Dave Smith
 PC Leaning OLP
73.
Mushkegowuk—James Bay
Guy Bourgouin
 N Leaning NDP
74.
Mississauga Centre
Natalia Kusendova
 PC Leaning OLP
75.
Milton
Zee Hamid
 PC Leaning OLP
76.
Newmarket—Aurora
Dawn Gallagher Murphy
 PC Likely OLP
77.
Mississauga—Streetsville
Nina Tangri
 PC Likely OLP
78.
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Silvia Gualtieri
 PC Likely OLP
79.
Oakville
Stephen Crawford
 PC Likely OLP
80.
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Rudy Cuzzetto
 PC Likely OLP
81.
Don Valley North
Jonathan Tsao
 L Likely OLP
82.
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Sheref Sabawy
 PC Likely OLP
83.
Ajax
Robert Cerjanec
 L Likely OLP
84.
Burlington
Natalie Pierre
 PC Likely OLP
85.
Niagara Centre
Jeff Burch
 N Likely NDP
86.
Timiskaming—Cochrane
John Vanthof
 N Likely NDP
87.
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Sandy Shaw
 N Likely NDP
88.
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Lee Fairclough
 L Likely OLP
89.
Thunder Bay—Superior North
Lise Vaugeois
 N Likely NDP
90.
Oshawa
Jennifer French
 N Likely NDP
91.
St. Catharines
Jennie Stevens
 N Likely NDP
92.
Sudbury
Jamie West
 N Likely NDP
93.
Scarborough—Guildwood
Andrea Hazell
 L Likely OLP
94.
Scarborough Southwest
Doly Begum
 N Likely NDP
95.
Kanata—Carleton
Karen Mccrimmon
 L Likely OLP
96.
Windsor West
Lisa Gretzky
 N Safe NDP
97.
Nepean
Tyler Watt
 L Safe OLP
98.
Kiiwetinoong
Sol Mamakwa
 N Safe NDP
99.
Nickel Belt
France Gélinas
 N Safe NDP
100.
London—Fanshawe
Teresa Armstrong
 N Safe NDP
101.
Haldimand—Norfolk
Bobbi Ann Brady
 I IND safe
102.
London North Centre
Terence Kernaghan
 N Safe NDP
103.
London West
Peggy Sattler
 N Safe NDP