338Canada.com - Ontario - Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: April 18, 2021

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 201840.5%
Current vote projection37.5% ± 5.3%
Current number of MP's71
Current seat projection64 ± 20



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PCO safe >99%
2. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PCO safe >99%
3. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PCO safe >99%
4. Thornhill PCO safe >99%
5. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes PCO safe >99%
6. Simcoe—Grey PCO safe >99%
7. York—Simcoe PCO safe >99%
8. Haldimand—Norfolk PCO safe >99%
9. Wellington—Halton Hills PCO safe >99%
10. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PCO safe >99%
11. Dufferin—Caledon PCO safe >99%
12. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PCO safe >99%
13. Huron—Bruce PCO safe >99%
14. Barrie—Innisfil PCO safe >99%
15. Hastings—Lennox and Addington PCO safe >99%
16. Markham—Unionville PCO safe >99%
17. Elgin—Middlesex—London PCO safe >99%
18. Nipissing PCO safe >99%
19. Bay of Quinte PCO safe >99%
20. Niagara West PCO safe >99%
21. Perth—Wellington PCO safe >99%
22. Oxford PCO safe >99%
23. Parry Sound—Muskoka PCO safe >99%
24. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PCO safe >99%
25. Durham PCO safe >99%
26. Etobicoke North PCO likely >99%
27. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PCO likely >99%
28. Whitby PCO likely >99%
29. Kanata—Carleton PCO likely >99%
30. Kenora—Rainy River PCO likely >99%
31. Simcoe North PCO likely >99%
32. Carleton PCO likely 99%
33. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PCO likely 99%
34. Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCO likely 99%
35. Sault Ste. Marie PCO likely 99%
36. Sarnia—Lambton PCO likely 98%
37. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO likely 98%
38. King—Vaughan PCO likely 98%
39. Nepean PCO likely 98%
40. Kitchener—Conestoga PCO likely 96%
41. York Centre PCO likely 96%
42. Scarborough North PCO likely 95%
43. Brampton South PCO likely 94%
44. Kitchener South—Hespeler PCO likely 92%
45. Brampton West PCO likely 91%
46. Pickering—Uxbridge PCO leaning 89%
47. Markham—Thornhill PCO leaning 85%
48. Newmarket—Aurora PCO leaning 85%
49. Richmond Hill PCO leaning 82%
50. Brampton Centre PCO leaning 81%
51. Brantford—Brant PCO leaning 81%
52. Mississauga—Malton PCO leaning 79%
53. Scarborough—Rouge Park PCO leaning 76%
54. Oakville North—Burlington PCO leaning 73%
55. Markham—Stouffville PCO leaning 71%
56. Willowdale PCO leaning 71%
57. Vaughan—Woodbridge Toss up 70%
58. Northumberland—Peterborough South Toss up 69%
59. Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up 64%
60. Scarborough Centre Toss up 63%
61. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up 59%
62. Oshawa Toss up 55%
63. Essex Toss up 54%
64. Ajax Toss up 48%
65. Burlington Toss up 46%
66. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up 43%
67. Niagara Centre Toss up 43%
68. Cambridge Toss up 41%
69. Mississauga Centre Toss up 39%
70. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up 39%
71. Peterborough—Kawartha Toss up 33%
72. Brampton North Toss up 26%
73. Milton OLP leaning 26%
74. Don Valley North OLP leaning 24%
75. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up 23%
76. Oakville OLP leaning 18%
77. Scarborough Southwest NDP leaning 14%
78. Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP leaning 14%
79. Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP leaning 13%
80. Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP leaning 13%
81. Kiiwetinoong NDP leaning 12%
82. Niagara Falls NDP leaning 12%
83. Etobicoke Centre OLP leaning 11%
84. Brampton East NDP likely 9%
85. St. Catharines Toss up 9%
86. Kitchener Centre Toss up 8%
87. London North Centre NDP likely 7%
88. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell OLP likely 6%
89. Waterloo NDP likely 6%
90. York South—Weston OLP leaning 4%
91. Eglinton—Lawrence OLP likely 3%
92. Windsor West NDP likely 2%
93. Timmins NDP likely 2%
94. Don Valley West OLP likely 2%
95. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP likely 2%
96. Humber River—Black Creek OLP likely 1%
97. Ottawa West—Nepean OLP likely 1%
98. Scarborough—Guildwood OLP likely <1%
99. London West NDP likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PCO safe
2. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PCO safe
3. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PCO safe
4. Thornhill PCO safe
5. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes PCO safe
6. Simcoe—Grey PCO safe
7. York—Simcoe PCO safe
8. Haldimand—Norfolk PCO safe
9. Wellington—Halton Hills PCO safe
10. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PCO safe
11. Dufferin—Caledon PCO safe
12. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PCO safe
13. Huron—Bruce PCO safe
14. Barrie—Innisfil PCO safe
15. Hastings—Lennox and Addington PCO safe
16. Markham—Unionville PCO safe
17. Elgin—Middlesex—London PCO safe
18. Nipissing PCO safe
19. Bay of Quinte PCO safe
20. Niagara West PCO safe
21. Perth—Wellington PCO safe
22. Oxford PCO safe
23. Parry Sound—Muskoka PCO safe
24. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PCO safe
25. Durham PCO safe
26. Etobicoke North PCO likely
27. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PCO likely
28. Whitby PCO likely
29. Kanata—Carleton PCO likely
30. Kenora—Rainy River PCO likely
31. Simcoe North PCO likely
32. Carleton PCO likely
33. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PCO likely
34. Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCO likely
35. Sault Ste. Marie PCO likely
36. Sarnia—Lambton PCO likely
37. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO likely
38. King—Vaughan PCO likely
39. Nepean PCO likely
40. Kitchener—Conestoga PCO likely
41. York Centre PCO likely
42. Scarborough North PCO likely
43. Brampton South PCO likely
44. Kitchener South—Hespeler PCO likely
45. Brampton West PCO likely
46. Pickering—Uxbridge PCO leaning
47. Markham—Thornhill PCO leaning
48. Newmarket—Aurora PCO leaning
49. Richmond Hill PCO leaning
50. Brampton Centre PCO leaning
51. Brantford—Brant PCO leaning
52. Mississauga—Malton PCO leaning
53. Scarborough—Rouge Park PCO leaning
54. Oakville North—Burlington PCO leaning
55. Markham—Stouffville PCO leaning
56. Willowdale PCO leaning
57. Vaughan—Woodbridge Toss up
58. Northumberland—Peterborough South Toss up
59. Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up
60. Scarborough Centre Toss up
61. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up
62. Oshawa Toss up
63. Essex Toss up
64. Ajax Toss up
65. Burlington Toss up
66. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up
67. Niagara Centre Toss up
68. Cambridge Toss up
69. Mississauga Centre Toss up
70. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up
71. Peterborough—Kawartha Toss up
72. Brampton North Toss up
73. Milton OLP leaning
74. Don Valley North OLP leaning
75. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up
76. Oakville OLP leaning
77. Scarborough Southwest NDP leaning
78. Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP leaning
79. Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP leaning
80. Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP leaning
81. Kiiwetinoong NDP leaning
82. Niagara Falls NDP leaning
83. Etobicoke Centre OLP leaning
84. Brampton East NDP likely
85. St. Catharines Toss up
86. Kitchener Centre Toss up
87. London North Centre NDP likely
88. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell OLP likely
89. Waterloo NDP likely
90. York South—Weston OLP leaning
91. Eglinton—Lawrence OLP likely
92. Windsor West NDP likely
93. Timmins NDP likely
94. Don Valley West OLP likely
95. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP likely
96. Humber River—Black Creek OLP likely
97. Ottawa West—Nepean OLP likely
98. Scarborough—Guildwood OLP likely
99. London West NDP likely



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