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Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: December 30, 2022

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 202240.8%
Current vote projection40.4% ± 4.5%
Current number of MPP83
Current seat projection83 [66-94]

Vote projection | December 30, 2022

30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 35.9% 40.4% ± 4.5% Max. 44.9% Probabilities % PCPO

Seat projection | December 30, 2022

48 53 58 63 68 73 78 83 88 93 98 103 108 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 63 seats Min. 66 2022 83 seats 83 Max. 94 Probabilities % PCPO

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Timmins Safe PCPO >99%
2. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO >99%
3. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO >99%
4. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO >99%
5. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO >99%
6. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO >99%
7. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO >99%
8. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO >99%
9. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO >99%
10. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO >99%
11. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO >99%
12. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO >99%
13. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO >99%
14. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO >99%
15. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO >99%
16. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO >99%
17. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO >99%
18. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO >99%
19. Oxford Safe PCPO >99%
20. Simcoe North Safe PCPO >99%
21. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO >99%
22. Bay of Quinte Safe PCPO >99%
23. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO >99%
24. Whitby Safe PCPO >99%
25. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO >99%
26. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO >99%
27. Niagara West Safe PCPO >99%
28. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO >99%
29. Durham Safe PCPO >99%
30. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO >99%
31. Brampton West Safe PCPO >99%
32. Essex Safe PCPO >99%
33. Thornhill Safe PCPO >99%
34. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
35. Carleton Safe PCPO >99%
36. Kanata—Carleton Safe PCPO >99%
37. Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
38. Nipissing Safe PCPO >99%
39. Brampton South Likely PCPO >99%
40. Scarborough North Likely PCPO >99%
41. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO >99%
42. Cambridge Likely PCPO >99%
43. Brampton North Likely PCPO >99%
44. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Likely PCPO >99%
45. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO >99%
46. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO >99%
47. Brantford—Brant Likely PCPO >99%
48. Windsor—Tecumseh Likely PCPO 99%
49. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 99%
50. Brampton Centre Likely PCPO 99%
51. Kitchener South—Hespeler Likely PCPO 99%
52. Burlington Likely PCPO 99%
53. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO 99%
54. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 98%
55. York Centre Likely PCPO 98%
56. Brampton East Likely PCPO 98%
57. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 97%
58. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 96%
59. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO 96%
60. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO 95%
61. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO 94%
62. Mississauga—Streetsville Likely PCPO 94%
63. Don Valley North Likely PCPO 94%
64. Peterborough—Kawartha Likely PCPO 91%
65. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Leaning PCPO 89%
66. Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO 88%
67. Sault Ste. Marie Leaning PCPO 88%
68. Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO 86%
69. Willowdale Leaning PCPO 83%
70. Nepean Leaning PCPO 82%
71. Scarborough Centre Leaning PCPO 81%
72. Oakville Leaning PCPO 78%
73. Ajax Leaning PCPO 75%
74. Mississauga—Erin Mills Leaning PCPO 75%
75. Milton Leaning PCPO 72%
76. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 70%
77. Parry Sound—Muskoka Toss up PCPO/GPO 69%
78. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Toss up OLP/PCPO 68%
79. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Toss up PCPO/NDP 65%
80. York South—Weston Toss up PCPO/NDP 62%
81. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 59%
82. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 58%
83. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO 58%
84. Oshawa Toss up PCPO/NDP 33%
85. Niagara Centre Toss up PCPO/NDP 32%
86. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up PCPO/NDP 30%
87. Haldimand—Norfolk IND leaning 29%
88. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up PCPO/NDP 22%
89. Don Valley West Leaning OLP 20%
90. St. Catharines Leaning NDP 15%
91. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 12%
92. Timiskaming—Cochrane Leaning NDP 12%
93. Windsor West Leaning NDP 10%
94. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Likely NDP 9%
95. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Likely NDP 7%
96. Algoma—Manitoulin Likely NDP 5%
97. London North Centre Likely NDP 3%
98. Don Valley East Likely OLP 3%
99. Niagara Falls Likely NDP 3%
100. London West Likely NDP 2%
101. Sudbury Likely NDP 2%
102. Orléans Likely OLP 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Timmins Safe PCPO
2. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO
3. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO
4. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO
5. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO
6. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO
7. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO
8. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO
9. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO
10. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO
11. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO
12. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO
13. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO
14. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO
15. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO
16. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO
17. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO
18. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO
19. Oxford Safe PCPO
20. Simcoe North Safe PCPO
21. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO
22. Bay of Quinte Safe PCPO
23. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO
24. Whitby Safe PCPO
25. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO
26. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO
27. Niagara West Safe PCPO
28. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO
29. Durham Safe PCPO
30. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO
31. Brampton West Safe PCPO
32. Essex Safe PCPO
33. Thornhill Safe PCPO
34. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Safe PCPO
35. Carleton Safe PCPO
36. Kanata—Carleton Safe PCPO
37. Richmond Hill Safe PCPO
38. Nipissing Safe PCPO
39. Brampton South Likely PCPO
40. Scarborough North Likely PCPO
41. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO
42. Cambridge Likely PCPO
43. Brampton North Likely PCPO
44. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Likely PCPO
45. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO
46. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO
47. Brantford—Brant Likely PCPO
48. Windsor—Tecumseh Likely PCPO
49. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO
50. Brampton Centre Likely PCPO
51. Kitchener South—Hespeler Likely PCPO
52. Burlington Likely PCPO
53. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO
54. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO
55. York Centre Likely PCPO
56. Brampton East Likely PCPO
57. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO
58. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO
59. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO
60. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO
61. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO
62. Mississauga—Streetsville Likely PCPO
63. Don Valley North Likely PCPO
64. Peterborough—Kawartha Likely PCPO
65. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Leaning PCPO
66. Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO
67. Sault Ste. Marie Leaning PCPO
68. Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO
69. Willowdale Leaning PCPO
70. Nepean Leaning PCPO
71. Scarborough Centre Leaning PCPO
72. Oakville Leaning PCPO
73. Ajax Leaning PCPO
74. Mississauga—Erin Mills Leaning PCPO
75. Milton Leaning PCPO
76. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO
77. Parry Sound—Muskoka Toss up PCPO/GPO
78. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Toss up OLP/PCPO
79. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Toss up PCPO/NDP
80. York South—Weston Toss up PCPO/NDP
81. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO
82. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO
83. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO
84. Oshawa Toss up PCPO/NDP
85. Niagara Centre Toss up PCPO/NDP
86. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up PCPO/NDP
87. Haldimand—Norfolk IND leaning
88. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up PCPO/NDP
89. Don Valley West Leaning OLP
90. St. Catharines Leaning NDP
91. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP
92. Timiskaming—Cochrane Leaning NDP
93. Windsor West Leaning NDP
94. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Likely NDP
95. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Likely NDP
96. Algoma—Manitoulin Likely NDP
97. London North Centre Likely NDP
98. Don Valley East Likely OLP
99. Niagara Falls Likely NDP
100. London West Likely NDP
101. Sudbury Likely NDP
102. Orléans Likely OLP