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Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: June 30, 2024

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 202240.8%
Current vote projection40.3% ± 4.0%
Current number of MPP79
Current seat projection86 [67-100]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 30, 2024 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PCPO 338Canada ©2023 3.7 seat/% 86 [67-100] 40% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | June 30, 2024

31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 36.3% ▼ 40.3% ± 4.0% ▼ Max. 44.4% ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Seat projection | June 30, 2024

47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 102 107 112 117 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 63 seats Min. 67 ▼ 2022 83 seats 86 ▼ Max. 100 ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Timmins Safe PCPO >99%
2. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO >99%
3. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO >99%
4. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO >99%
5. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO >99%
6. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO >99%
7. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO >99%
8. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO >99%
9. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO >99%
10. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO >99%
11. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO >99%
12. Essex Safe PCPO >99%
13. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO >99%
14. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO >99%
15. Oxford Safe PCPO >99%
16. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO >99%
17. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO >99%
18. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO >99%
19. Nipissing Safe PCPO >99%
20. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO >99%
21. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO >99%
22. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO >99%
23. Whitby Safe PCPO >99%
24. Simcoe North Safe PCPO >99%
25. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO >99%
26. Bay of Quinte Safe PCPO >99%
27. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO >99%
28. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO >99%
29. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO >99%
30. Durham Safe PCPO >99%
31. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO >99%
32. Niagara West Safe PCPO >99%
33. Brampton West Safe PCPO >99%
34. Windsor—Tecumseh Safe PCPO >99%
35. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO >99%
36. Thornhill Safe PCPO >99%
37. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO >99%
38. Kitchener South—Hespeler Safe PCPO >99%
39. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
40. Carleton Safe PCPO >99%
41. Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
42. Brampton South Safe PCPO >99%
43. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO >99%
44. Brampton North Likely PCPO >99%
45. Brampton Centre Likely PCPO >99%
46. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO >99%
47. Sault Ste. Marie Likely PCPO >99%
48. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO >99%
49. Cambridge Likely PCPO >99%
50. Brampton East Likely PCPO >99%
51. Scarborough North Likely PCPO >99%
52. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO >99%
53. Burlington Likely PCPO 99%
54. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 99%
55. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 98%
56. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 98%
57. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 98%
58. Kanata—Carleton Likely PCPO 98%
59. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO 98%
60. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO 97%
61. York Centre Likely PCPO 96%
62. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO 95%
63. Milton Likely PCPO 94%
64. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO 93%
65. Don Valley North Likely PCPO 90%
66. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO 90%
67. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO 88%
68. Oakville Leaning PCPO 84%
69. York South—Weston Leaning PCPO 81%
70. Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO 81%
71. Nepean Leaning PCPO 79%
72. Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO 79%
73. Willowdale Leaning PCPO 76%
74. Niagara Centre Leaning PCPO 73%
75. Scarborough Centre Leaning PCPO 72%
76. Ajax Leaning PCPO 72%
77. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Leaning PCPO 71%
78. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Leaning PCPO 70%
79. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO 67%
80. Parry Sound—Muskoka Toss up PCPO/GPO 62%
81. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 59%
82. Timiskaming—Cochrane Toss up PCPO/NDP 59%
83. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO 57%
84. Oshawa Toss up PCPO/NDP 54%
85. St. Catharines Toss up PCPO/NDP 51%
86. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 50%
87. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up PCPO/NDP 48%
88. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 44%
89. Windsor West Toss up PCPO/NDP 43%
90. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP 41%
91. Algoma—Manitoulin Toss up PCPO/NDP 38%
92. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up PCPO/NDP 33%
93. Sudbury Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 23%
94. London North Centre Leaning NDP 21%
95. Niagara Falls Leaning NDP 20%
96. London West Leaning NDP 18%
97. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning OLP 18%
98. Don Valley West Leaning OLP 16%
99. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 15%
100. Haldimand—Norfolk IND leaning 12%
101. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP 8%
102. London—Fanshawe Likely NDP 8%
103. Hamilton Mountain Likely NDP 5%
104. Kiiwetinoong Likely NDP 4%
105. Nickel Belt Likely NDP 3%
106. Waterloo Likely NDP 2%
107. Don Valley East Likely OLP 1%