338Canada.com - Ontario - Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: May 19, 2021

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 201840.5%
Current vote projection32.9% ± 4.9%
Current number of MP's71
Current seat projection54 ± 21



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PCO safe >99%
2. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PCO safe >99%
3. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PCO safe >99%
4. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes PCO safe >99%
5. Wellington—Halton Hills PCO safe >99%
6. Dufferin—Caledon PCO safe >99%
7. Simcoe—Grey PCO safe >99%
8. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PCO safe >99%
9. Thornhill PCO safe >99%
10. York—Simcoe PCO safe >99%
11. Haldimand—Norfolk PCO safe >99%
12. Barrie—Innisfil PCO safe >99%
13. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PCO safe >99%
14. Huron—Bruce PCO safe >99%
15. Markham—Unionville PCO safe >99%
16. Parry Sound—Muskoka PCO safe >99%
17. Bay of Quinte PCO likely >99%
18. Hastings—Lennox and Addington PCO likely >99%
19. Elgin—Middlesex—London PCO likely >99%
20. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PCO likely >99%
21. Niagara West PCO likely >99%
22. Nipissing PCO likely >99%
23. Oxford PCO likely 99%
24. Etobicoke North PCO likely 99%
25. Perth—Wellington PCO likely 99%
26. Durham PCO likely 99%
27. Kanata—Carleton PCO likely 98%
28. Simcoe North PCO likely 98%
29. Carleton PCO likely 98%
30. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PCO likely 97%
31. Kenora—Rainy River PCO likely 97%
32. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PCO likely 94%
33. Nepean PCO likely 93%
34. Sault Ste. Marie PCO likely 90%
35. Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCO likely 90%
36. King—Vaughan PCO leaning 89%
37. York Centre PCO leaning 88%
38. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO leaning 87%
39. Sarnia—Lambton PCO leaning 87%
40. Scarborough North PCO leaning 86%
41. Whitby PCO leaning 85%
42. Mississauga Centre PCO leaning 83%
43. Kitchener—Conestoga PCO leaning 80%
44. Scarborough—Agincourt PCO leaning 72%
45. Brampton South PCO leaning 71%
46. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up 66%
47. Pickering—Uxbridge Toss up 65%
48. Markham—Thornhill Toss up 62%
49. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up 60%
50. Richmond Hill Toss up 57%
51. Northumberland—Peterborough South Toss up 51%
52. Scarborough—Rouge Park Toss up 49%
53. Willowdale Toss up 48%
54. Mississauga—Malton Toss up 48%
55. Brampton West Toss up 46%
56. Oakville North—Burlington Toss up 44%
57. Brantford—Brant Toss up 43%
58. Markham—Stouffville Toss up 42%
59. Vaughan—Woodbridge Toss up 42%
60. Peterborough—Kawartha Toss up 41%
61. Cambridge Toss up 37%
62. Scarborough Centre Toss up 36%
63. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up 35%
64. Ajax Toss up 30%
65. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up 30%
66. Burlington Toss up 30%
67. Brampton Centre Toss up 27%
68. Don Valley North OLP leaning 19%
69. Milton OLP leaning 18%
70. Mississauga—Erin Mills OLP leaning 18%
71. Essex NDP leaning 17%
72. Oakville OLP leaning 16%
73. Niagara Centre NDP leaning 11%
74. Etobicoke Centre OLP likely 10%
75. Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP likely 7%
76. Oshawa NDP likely 6%
77. Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP likely 6%
78. Eglinton—Lawrence OLP likely 4%
79. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP leaning 4%
80. Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP likely 3%
81. Kiiwetinoong NDP likely 3%
82. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell OLP likely 3%
83. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up 2%
84. Brampton North NDP leaning 2%
85. Don Valley West OLP likely 1%
86. Niagara Falls NDP likely <1%
87. St. Catharines NDP leaning <1%
88. Scarborough Southwest NDP likely <1%
89. Kitchener Centre NDP leaning <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PCO safe
2. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PCO safe
3. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PCO safe
4. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes PCO safe
5. Wellington—Halton Hills PCO safe
6. Dufferin—Caledon PCO safe
7. Simcoe—Grey PCO safe
8. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PCO safe
9. Thornhill PCO safe
10. York—Simcoe PCO safe
11. Haldimand—Norfolk PCO safe
12. Barrie—Innisfil PCO safe
13. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PCO safe
14. Huron—Bruce PCO safe
15. Markham—Unionville PCO safe
16. Parry Sound—Muskoka PCO safe
17. Bay of Quinte PCO likely
18. Hastings—Lennox and Addington PCO likely
19. Elgin—Middlesex—London PCO likely
20. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PCO likely
21. Niagara West PCO likely
22. Nipissing PCO likely
23. Oxford PCO likely
24. Etobicoke North PCO likely
25. Perth—Wellington PCO likely
26. Durham PCO likely
27. Kanata—Carleton PCO likely
28. Simcoe North PCO likely
29. Carleton PCO likely
30. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PCO likely
31. Kenora—Rainy River PCO likely
32. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PCO likely
33. Nepean PCO likely
34. Sault Ste. Marie PCO likely
35. Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCO likely
36. King—Vaughan PCO leaning
37. York Centre PCO leaning
38. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO leaning
39. Sarnia—Lambton PCO leaning
40. Scarborough North PCO leaning
41. Whitby PCO leaning
42. Mississauga Centre PCO leaning
43. Kitchener—Conestoga PCO leaning
44. Scarborough—Agincourt PCO leaning
45. Brampton South PCO leaning
46. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up
47. Pickering—Uxbridge Toss up
48. Markham—Thornhill Toss up
49. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up
50. Richmond Hill Toss up
51. Northumberland—Peterborough South Toss up
52. Scarborough—Rouge Park Toss up
53. Willowdale Toss up
54. Mississauga—Malton Toss up
55. Brampton West Toss up
56. Oakville North—Burlington Toss up
57. Brantford—Brant Toss up
58. Markham—Stouffville Toss up
59. Vaughan—Woodbridge Toss up
60. Peterborough—Kawartha Toss up
61. Cambridge Toss up
62. Scarborough Centre Toss up
63. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up
64. Ajax Toss up
65. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up
66. Burlington Toss up
67. Brampton Centre Toss up
68. Don Valley North OLP leaning
69. Milton OLP leaning
70. Mississauga—Erin Mills OLP leaning
71. Essex NDP leaning
72. Oakville OLP leaning
73. Niagara Centre NDP leaning
74. Etobicoke Centre OLP likely
75. Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP likely
76. Oshawa NDP likely
77. Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP likely
78. Eglinton—Lawrence OLP likely
79. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP leaning
80. Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP likely
81. Kiiwetinoong NDP likely
82. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell OLP likely
83. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up
84. Brampton North NDP leaning
85. Don Valley West OLP likely
86. Niagara Falls NDP likely
87. St. Catharines NDP leaning
88. Scarborough Southwest NDP likely
89. Kitchener Centre NDP leaning



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