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Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: June 7, 2025

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 202240.8%
Current vote projection43.3% ± 4.3%
Current number of MPP80
Current seat projection82 [65-90]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 7, 2025 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PCPO 338Canada Ontario 3.5 seat/% 82 [65-90] 43% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | June 7, 2025

34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 38.9% ▼ 2022 40.8% 43.3% ± 4.3% ▼ Max. 47.6% ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Seat projection | June 7, 2025

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 63 seats Min. 65 ▼ 82 ▼ 2022 83 seats Max. 90 ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Timmins Safe PCPO >99%
2. Vaughan—Woodbridge Safe PCPO >99%
3. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO >99%
4. Thornhill Safe PCPO >99%
5. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO >99%
6. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO >99%
7. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO >99%
8. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO >99%
9. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO >99%
10. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO >99%
11. Essex Safe PCPO >99%
12. Oxford Safe PCPO >99%
13. Nipissing Safe PCPO >99%
14. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO >99%
15. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO >99%
16. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO >99%
17. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO >99%
18. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO >99%
19. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO >99%
20. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO >99%
21. Simcoe North Safe PCPO >99%
22. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO >99%
23. Niagara West Safe PCPO >99%
24. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO >99%
25. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO >99%
26. Brampton North Safe PCPO >99%
27. Brampton West Safe PCPO >99%
28. Durham Safe PCPO >99%
29. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO >99%
30. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO >99%
31. Brampton East Safe PCPO >99%
32. Kitchener South—Hespeler Safe PCPO >99%
33. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
34. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO >99%
35. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO >99%
36. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO >99%
37. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Safe PCPO >99%
38. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO >99%
39. Brampton South Safe PCPO >99%
40. Windsor—Tecumseh Likely PCPO >99%
41. Richmond Hill Likely PCPO >99%
42. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Likely PCPO >99%
43. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Likely PCPO >99%
44. York Centre Likely PCPO >99%
45. Brampton Centre Likely PCPO >99%
46. Scarborough North Likely PCPO >99%
47. Algoma—Manitoulin Likely PCPO 99%
48. Bay of Quinte Likely PCPO 99%
49. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Likely PCPO 99%
50. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Likely PCPO 99%
51. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO 99%
52. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO 97%
53. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO 97%
54. Carleton Likely PCPO 97%
55. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 96%
56. Cambridge Likely PCPO 95%
57. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 92%
58. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 92%
59. Whitby Likely PCPO 92%
60. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO 91%
61. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO 91%
62. Scarborough—Agincourt Leaning PCPO 86%
63. Etobicoke Centre Leaning PCPO 84%
64. Hamilton Mountain Leaning PCPO 84%
65. Milton Leaning PCPO 84%
66. Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO 82%
67. Newmarket—Aurora Leaning PCPO 82%
68. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO 79%
69. Parry Sound—Muskoka Leaning PCPO 77%
70. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO 77%
71. Oakville Leaning PCPO 74%
72. Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO 73%
73. Mississauga East—Cooksville Leaning PCPO 71%
74. Scarborough Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 63%
75. Willowdale Toss up OLP/PCPO 61%
76. Sault Ste. Marie Toss up PCPO/NDP 57%
77. York South—Weston Toss up OLP/PCPO 56%
78. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 55%
79. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP 53%
80. Burlington Toss up OLP/PCPO 53%
81. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO 53%
82. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up PCPO/NDP 49%
83. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO 48%
84. Oshawa Toss up PCPO/NDP 30%
85. Niagara Centre Leaning NDP 24%
86. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Leaning NDP 22%
87. Timiskaming—Cochrane Leaning NDP 22%
88. Don Valley North Leaning OLP 19%
89. Kanata—Carleton Leaning OLP 16%
90. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning NDP 16%
91. Sudbury Leaning NDP 15%
92. St. Catharines Leaning NDP 15%
93. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Leaning OLP 12%
94. Nepean Likely OLP 7%
95. Windsor West Likely NDP 5%
96. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP 4%
97. Nickel Belt Likely NDP 4%
98. Scarborough Southwest Likely NDP 3%
99. London—Fanshawe Likely NDP 2%
100. London West Likely NDP 1%
101. London North Centre Likely NDP 1%