logo
logo
Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: February 28, 2025

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 202240.8%
Current vote projection43.0% ± 0.4%
Current number of MPP80
Current seat projection80 [74-81]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PCPO 338Canada Ontario 3.0 seat/% 80 [74-81] 43% ± 0% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | February 28, 2025

42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 42.6% ▼ 43.0% ± 0.4% ▼ Max. 43.4% ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Seat projection | February 28, 2025

70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 20% 15% 10% 5% Min. 74 ▼ 80 ▼ Max. 81 ▼ 2022 83 seats Probabilities % PCPO

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Timmins Safe PCPO >99%
2. Vaughan—Woodbridge Safe PCPO >99%
3. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO >99%
4. Thornhill Safe PCPO >99%
5. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO >99%
6. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO >99%
7. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO >99%
8. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO >99%
9. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO >99%
10. Brampton North Safe PCPO >99%
11. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
12. Brampton West Safe PCPO >99%
13. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO >99%
14. Essex Safe PCPO >99%
15. Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
16. Oxford Safe PCPO >99%
17. Nipissing Safe PCPO >99%
18. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO >99%
19. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO >99%
20. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO >99%
21. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO >99%
22. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO >99%
23. Brampton South Safe PCPO >99%
24. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO >99%
25. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO >99%
26. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO >99%
27. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO >99%
28. Brampton East Safe PCPO >99%
29. Simcoe North Safe PCPO >99%
30. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO >99%
31. Durham Safe PCPO >99%
32. Niagara West Safe PCPO >99%
33. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO >99%
34. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO >99%
35. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO >99%
36. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO >99%
37. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO >99%
38. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO >99%
39. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Safe PCPO >99%
40. Kitchener South—Hespeler Safe PCPO >99%
41. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO >99%
42. Windsor—Tecumseh Safe PCPO >99%
43. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO >99%
44. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Safe PCPO >99%
45. York Centre Safe PCPO >99%
46. Bay of Quinte Safe PCPO >99%
47. Kitchener—Conestoga Safe PCPO >99%
48. Brampton Centre Safe PCPO >99%
49. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Safe PCPO >99%
50. Scarborough North Safe PCPO >99%
51. Algoma—Manitoulin Safe PCPO >99%
52. Carleton Likely PCPO >99%
53. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO >99%
54. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO >99%
55. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 99%
56. Cambridge Likely PCPO 99%
57. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 99%
58. Whitby Likely PCPO 99%
59. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 99%
60. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO 99%
61. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO 97%
62. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO 94%
63. Milton Likely PCPO 93%
64. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO 93%
65. Hamilton Mountain Likely PCPO 92%
66. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 91%
67. Parry Sound—Muskoka Likely PCPO 90%
68. Mississauga Centre Likely PCPO 90%
69. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO 89%
70. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO 85%
71. Oakville Leaning PCPO 84%
72. Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO 82%
73. Mississauga East—Cooksville Leaning PCPO 78%
74. Scarborough Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 64%
75. Willowdale Toss up OLP/PCPO 63%
76. York South—Weston Toss up OLP/PCPO 54%
77. Sault Ste. Marie Toss up PCPO/NDP 53%
78. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 53%
79. Burlington Toss up OLP/PCPO 51%
80. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO 51%
81. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP 49%
82. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up PCPO/NDP 42%
83. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO 42%
84. Oshawa Leaning NDP 14%
85. Timiskaming—Cochrane Leaning NDP 11%
86. Don Valley North Likely OLP 9%
87. Niagara Centre Likely NDP 9%
88. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Likely NDP 7%
89. Thunder Bay—Superior North Likely NDP 6%
90. Sudbury Likely NDP 4%
91. Kanata—Carleton Likely OLP 4%
92. St. Catharines Likely NDP 3%
93. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Likely OLP 1%