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Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: May 18, 2022

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 201840.5%
Current vote projection37.6% ± 3.8%
Current number of MPP's68
Current seat projection77 [53-97]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO hold >99%
2. Oxford Safe PCPO hold >99%
3. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO hold >99%
4. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO hold >99%
5. Haldimand—Norfolk Safe PCPO hold >99%
6. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO hold >99%
7. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO hold >99%
8. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO hold >99%
9. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO hold >99%
10. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO hold >99%
11. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO hold >99%
12. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO hold >99%
13. Niagara West Safe PCPO hold >99%
14. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO hold >99%
15. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO hold >99%
16. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO hold >99%
17. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO hold >99%
18. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO hold >99%
19. Thornhill Safe PCPO hold >99%
20. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO hold >99%
21. Whitby Safe PCPO hold >99%
22. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO hold >99%
23. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO hold >99%
24. Bay of Quinte Safe PCPO hold >99%
25. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO hold >99%
26. Nipissing Safe PCPO hold >99%
27. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Safe PCPO hold >99%
28. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO hold >99%
29. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO hold >99%
30. Flamborough—Glanbrook Likely PCPO hold >99%
31. Durham Likely PCPO hold >99%
32. Simcoe North Likely PCPO hold >99%
33. Kitchener South—Hespeler Likely PCPO hold >99%
34. Kenora—Rainy River Likely PCPO hold >99%
35. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO hold >99%
36. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Likely PCPO hold 99%
37. Parry Sound—Muskoka Likely PCPO hold 99%
38. York Centre Likely PCPO hold 99%
39. Kanata—Carleton Likely PCPO hold 99%
40. King—Vaughan Likely PCPO hold 99%
41. Carleton Likely PCPO hold 99%
42. Scarborough North Likely PCPO hold 98%
43. Brampton Centre Likely PCPO gain 98%
44. Oshawa Likely PCPO gain 98%
45. Sault Ste. Marie Likely PCPO hold 97%
46. Brampton West Likely PCPO hold 97%
47. Brampton South Likely PCPO hold 96%
48. Nepean Likely PCPO hold 95%
49. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO hold 92%
50. Newmarket—Aurora Leaning PCPO hold 89%
51. Markham—Thornhill Leaning PCPO hold 88%
52. Essex Leaning PCPO gain 87%
53. Scarborough—Agincourt Leaning PCPO hold 87%
54. Brampton East Leaning PCPO gain 84%
55. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO hold 81%
56. Mississauga—Malton Leaning PCPO hold 80%
57. Richmond Hill Leaning PCPO hold 77%
58. Cambridge Leaning PCPO hold 77%
59. Northumberland—Peterborough South Leaning PCPO hold 76%
60. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO hold 75%
61. Niagara Centre Leaning PCPO gain 75%
62. Mississauga—Erin Mills Leaning PCPO hold 74%
63. Markham—Stouffville Leaning PCPO hold 73%
64. Brampton North Leaning PCPO gain 72%
65. Vaughan—Woodbridge Leaning PCPO hold 72%
66. Milton Leaning PCPO hold 71%
67. Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO hold 70%
68. York South—Weston Toss up OLP/PCPO 70%
69. Oakville North—Burlington Toss up OLP/PCPO 68%
70. Burlington Toss up OLP/PCPO 65%
71. Niagara Falls Toss up PCPO/NDP 64%
72. Scarborough—Rouge Park Toss up OLP/PCPO 63%
73. Scarborough Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 62%
74. Willowdale Toss up OLP/PCPO 57%
75. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 55%
76. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO 54%
77. Don Valley North Toss up OLP/PCPO 48%
78. Etobicoke Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 47%
79. London North Centre Toss up PCPO/NDP 46%
80. Oakville Toss up OLP/PCPO 46%
81. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 45%
82. Mississauga—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 45%
83. Waterloo Toss up PCPO/NDP 43%
84. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 37%
85. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up OLP/PCPO 34%
86. St. Catharines Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 33%
87. Kitchener Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 31%
88. Eglinton—Lawrence Leaning OLP gain 28%
89. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Leaning NDP hold 25%
90. Scarborough Southwest Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 23%
91. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Leaning NDP hold 22%
92. Windsor West Leaning NDP hold 21%
93. Kiiwetinoong Leaning NDP hold 20%
94. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Leaning OLP gain 18%
95. Hamilton Mountain Leaning NDP hold 16%
96. London—Fanshawe Leaning NDP hold 12%
97. London West Leaning NDP hold 12%
98. Humber River—Black Creek Leaning OLP gain 10%
99. Timmins Likely NDP hold 9%
100. Don Valley West Likely OLP hold 2%
101. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP hold 2%
102. Windsor—Tecumseh Likely NDP hold 1%
103. Kingston and the Islands Leaning OLP gain 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO hold
2. Oxford Safe PCPO hold
3. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO hold
4. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO hold
5. Haldimand—Norfolk Safe PCPO hold
6. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO hold
7. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO hold
8. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO hold
9. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO hold
10. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO hold
11. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO hold
12. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO hold
13. Niagara West Safe PCPO hold
14. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO hold
15. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO hold
16. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO hold
17. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO hold
18. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO hold
19. Thornhill Safe PCPO hold
20. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO hold
21. Whitby Safe PCPO hold
22. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO hold
23. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO hold
24. Bay of Quinte Safe PCPO hold
25. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO hold
26. Nipissing Safe PCPO hold
27. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Safe PCPO hold
28. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO hold
29. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO hold
30. Flamborough—Glanbrook Likely PCPO hold
31. Durham Likely PCPO hold
32. Simcoe North Likely PCPO hold
33. Kitchener South—Hespeler Likely PCPO hold
34. Kenora—Rainy River Likely PCPO hold
35. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO hold
36. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Likely PCPO hold
37. Parry Sound—Muskoka Likely PCPO hold
38. York Centre Likely PCPO hold
39. Kanata—Carleton Likely PCPO hold
40. King—Vaughan Likely PCPO hold
41. Carleton Likely PCPO hold
42. Scarborough North Likely PCPO hold
43. Brampton Centre Likely PCPO gain
44. Oshawa Likely PCPO gain
45. Sault Ste. Marie Likely PCPO hold
46. Brampton West Likely PCPO hold
47. Brampton South Likely PCPO hold
48. Nepean Likely PCPO hold
49. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO hold
50. Newmarket—Aurora Leaning PCPO hold
51. Markham—Thornhill Leaning PCPO hold
52. Essex Leaning PCPO gain
53. Scarborough—Agincourt Leaning PCPO hold
54. Brampton East Leaning PCPO gain
55. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO hold
56. Mississauga—Malton Leaning PCPO hold
57. Richmond Hill Leaning PCPO hold
58. Cambridge Leaning PCPO hold
59. Northumberland—Peterborough South Leaning PCPO hold
60. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO hold
61. Niagara Centre Leaning PCPO gain
62. Mississauga—Erin Mills Leaning PCPO hold
63. Markham—Stouffville Leaning PCPO hold
64. Brampton North Leaning PCPO gain
65. Vaughan—Woodbridge Leaning PCPO hold
66. Milton Leaning PCPO hold
67. Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO hold
68. York South—Weston Toss up OLP/PCPO
69. Oakville North—Burlington Toss up OLP/PCPO
70. Burlington Toss up OLP/PCPO
71. Niagara Falls Toss up PCPO/NDP
72. Scarborough—Rouge Park Toss up OLP/PCPO
73. Scarborough Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO
74. Willowdale Toss up OLP/PCPO
75. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO
76. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO
77. Don Valley North Toss up OLP/PCPO
78. Etobicoke Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO
79. London North Centre Toss up PCPO/NDP
80. Oakville Toss up OLP/PCPO
81. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO
82. Mississauga—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO
83. Waterloo Toss up PCPO/NDP
84. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP
85. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up OLP/PCPO
86. St. Catharines Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP
87. Kitchener Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP
88. Eglinton—Lawrence Leaning OLP gain
89. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Leaning NDP hold
90. Scarborough Southwest Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP
91. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Leaning NDP hold
92. Windsor West Leaning NDP hold
93. Kiiwetinoong Leaning NDP hold
94. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Leaning OLP gain
95. Hamilton Mountain Leaning NDP hold
96. London—Fanshawe Leaning NDP hold
97. London West Leaning NDP hold
98. Humber River—Black Creek Leaning OLP gain
99. Timmins Likely NDP hold
100. Don Valley West Likely OLP hold
101. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP hold
102. Windsor—Tecumseh Likely NDP hold
103. Kingston and the Islands Leaning OLP gain