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Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: February 20, 2025

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 202240.8%
Current vote projection45.1% ± 4.2%
Current number of MPP79
Current seat projection92 [75-105]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PCPO 338Canada Ontario 4.1 seat/% 91 [75-105] 45% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | February 20, 2025

36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 40.9% ▼ 2022 40.8% 45.1% ± 4.2% ▼ Max. 49.4% ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Seat projection | February 20, 2025

55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 63 seats Min. 75 ▼ 2022 83 seats 92 ▼ Max. 105 ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO >99%
2. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO >99%
3. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO >99%
4. Timmins Safe PCPO >99%
5. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO >99%
6. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO >99%
7. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO >99%
8. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO >99%
9. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO >99%
10. Essex Safe PCPO >99%
11. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO >99%
12. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO >99%
13. Oxford Safe PCPO >99%
14. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO >99%
15. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO >99%
16. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO >99%
17. Nipissing Safe PCPO >99%
18. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO >99%
19. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO >99%
20. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO >99%
21. Simcoe North Safe PCPO >99%
22. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO >99%
23. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO >99%
24. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO >99%
25. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO >99%
26. Windsor—Tecumseh Safe PCPO >99%
27. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO >99%
28. Carleton Safe PCPO >99%
29. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO >99%
30. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO >99%
31. Whitby Safe PCPO >99%
32. Niagara West Safe PCPO >99%
33. Brampton East Safe PCPO >99%
34. Kitchener—Conestoga Safe PCPO >99%
35. Kitchener South—Hespeler Safe PCPO >99%
36. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO >99%
37. Scarborough—Rouge Park Safe PCPO >99%
38. Durham Safe PCPO >99%
39. Scarborough North Safe PCPO >99%
40. Cambridge Safe PCPO >99%
41. Brampton West Safe PCPO >99%
42. Etobicoke Centre Safe PCPO >99%
43. Thornhill Safe PCPO >99%
44. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO >99%
45. York South—Weston Safe PCPO >99%
46. York Centre Safe PCPO >99%
47. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Likely PCPO >99%
48. Richmond Hill Likely PCPO >99%
49. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO >99%
50. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO >99%
51. Sault Ste. Marie Likely PCPO >99%
52. Brampton South Likely PCPO >99%
53. Brampton Centre Likely PCPO 99%
54. Brampton North Likely PCPO 99%
55. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO 99%
56. Bay of Quinte Likely PCPO 99%
57. Don Valley North Likely PCPO 99%
58. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO 98%
59. Willowdale Likely PCPO 98%
60. Scarborough Centre Likely PCPO 98%
61. Burlington Likely PCPO 97%
62. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 97%
63. Peterborough—Kawartha Likely PCPO 95%
64. Nepean Likely PCPO 95%
65. Kanata—Carleton Likely PCPO 95%
66. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 94%
67. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 94%
68. Niagara Centre Likely PCPO 93%
69. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 92%
70. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Likely PCPO 92%
71. Parry Sound—Muskoka Leaning PCPO 90%
72. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Leaning PCPO 88%
73. Markham—Thornhill Leaning PCPO 87%
74. Milton Leaning PCPO 85%
75. St. Catharines Leaning PCPO 84%
76. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Leaning PCPO 84%
77. Oakville Leaning PCPO 79%
78. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO 78%
79. Oshawa Leaning PCPO 78%
80. Ottawa West—Nepean Leaning PCPO 75%
81. Timiskaming—Cochrane Toss up PCPO/NDP 67%
82. Mississauga Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 65%
83. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up PCPO/NDP 63%
84. Algoma—Manitoulin Toss up PCPO/NDP 57%
85. Haldimand—Norfolk Toss up PCPO/IND 54%
86. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO 54%
87. Mississauga—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 53%
88. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 52%
89. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 51%
90. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP 50%
91. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 50%
92. Niagara Falls Toss up PCPO/NDP 49%
93. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO 48%
94. Sudbury Toss up PCPO/NDP 48%
95. Windsor West Toss up PCPO/NDP 46%
96. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 45%
97. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 44%
98. Scarborough—Guildwood Toss up OLP/PCPO 43%
99. Don Valley West Toss up OLP/PCPO 36%
100. Hamilton Mountain Toss up PCPO/NDP 33%
101. Waterloo Toss up PCPO/NDP 32%
102. London West Toss up PCPO/NDP 31%
103. London North Centre Leaning NDP 26%
104. Scarborough Southwest Leaning NDP 25%
105. Nickel Belt Leaning NDP 21%
106. London—Fanshawe Leaning NDP 20%
107. Kiiwetinoong Leaning NDP 20%
108. Kitchener Centre Leaning GPO 17%
109. Don Valley East Leaning OLP 17%
110. Toronto—St. Paul’s Leaning OLP 7%
111. Orléans Likely OLP 5%
112. Kingston and the Islands Likely OLP 2%