338Canada.com - Ontario - Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: October 17, 2021

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 201840.5%
Current vote projection35.0% ± 3.8%
Current number of MPP's70
Current seat projection53 [39-73]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PCO safe >99%
2. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PCO safe >99%
3. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PCO safe >99%
4. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes PCO safe >99%
5. Thornhill PCO safe >99%
6. Simcoe—Grey PCO safe >99%
7. Elgin—Middlesex—London PCO safe >99%
8. Haldimand—Norfolk PCO safe >99%
9. Dufferin—Caledon PCO safe >99%
10. York—Simcoe PCO safe >99%
11. Wellington—Halton Hills PCO safe >99%
12. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PCO safe >99%
13. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PCO safe >99%
14. Parry Sound—Muskoka PCO safe >99%
15. Barrie—Innisfil PCO safe >99%
16. Nipissing PCO safe >99%
17. Niagara West PCO safe >99%
18. Hastings—Lennox and Addington PCO safe >99%
19. Huron—Bruce PCO safe >99%
20. Oxford PCO safe >99%
21. Markham—Unionville PCO safe >99%
22. Bay of Quinte PCO safe >99%
23. Perth—Wellington PCO safe >99%
24. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PCO safe >99%
25. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PCO safe >99%
26. Kenora—Rainy River PCO likely >99%
27. Etobicoke North PCO likely >99%
28. Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCO likely >99%
29. Durham PCO likely >99%
30. Sault Ste. Marie PCO likely 99%
31. Sarnia—Lambton PCO likely 99%
32. Kanata—Carleton PCO likely 99%
33. Whitby PCO likely 99%
34. Simcoe North PCO likely 99%
35. Carleton PCO likely 99%
36. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO likely 99%
37. Kitchener—Conestoga PCO likely 98%
38. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PCO likely 96%
39. Nepean PCO likely 95%
40. Kitchener South—Hespeler PCO likely 93%
41. King—Vaughan PCO likely 91%
42. York Centre PCO leaning 89%
43. Scarborough North PCO leaning 88%
44. Brantford—Brant PCO leaning 82%
45. Mississauga Centre PCO leaning 79%
46. Brampton South PCO leaning 76%
47. Scarborough—Agincourt PCO leaning 71%
48. Brampton West Toss up OLP/PCO 70%
49. Pickering—Uxbridge Toss up OLP/PCO 63%
50. Markham—Thornhill Toss up OLP/PCO 59%
51. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up OLP/PCO 56%
52. Brampton Centre Toss up OLP/PCO/NDP 56%
53. Richmond Hill Toss up OLP/PCO 53%
54. Essex Toss up PCO/NDP 49%
55. Scarborough—Rouge Park Toss up OLP/PCO 49%
56. Northumberland—Peterborough South Toss up OLP/PCO 45%
57. Mississauga—Malton Toss up OLP/PCO 43%
58. Willowdale Toss up OLP/PCO 42%
59. Peterborough—Kawartha Toss up OLP/PCO 36%
60. Oakville North—Burlington Toss up OLP/PCO 36%
61. Niagara Centre Toss up PCO/NDP 36%
62. Vaughan—Woodbridge Toss up OLP/PCO 35%
63. Markham—Stouffville Toss up OLP/PCO 35%
64. Scarborough Centre Toss up OLP/PCO 31%
65. Cambridge Toss up OLP/PCO 30%
66. Etobicoke—Lakeshore OLP leaning 29%
67. Ajax OLP leaning 25%
68. Oshawa NDP leaning 24%
69. Mississauga—Streetsville OLP leaning 22%
70. Burlington OLP leaning 22%
71. Don Valley North OLP leaning 11%
72. Milton OLP leaning 11%
73. Mississauga—Erin Mills OLP likely 10%
74. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up OLP/NDP 9%
75. Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP likely 8%
76. Kiiwetinoong NDP leaning 7%
77. Oakville OLP likely 5%
78. Niagara Falls NDP likely 5%
79. Etobicoke Centre OLP likely 4%
80. Brampton North Toss up OLP/NDP 4%
81. Scarborough Southwest NDP leaning 3%
82. Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP likely 3%
83. St. Catharines Toss up OLP/NDP 2%
84. London North Centre NDP likely 2%
85. Humber River—Black Creek OLP leaning 2%
86. Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP likely 2%
87. Kitchener Centre Toss up OLP/NDP 2%
88. Waterloo NDP likely 2%
89. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell OLP likely <1%
90. Eglinton—Lawrence OLP likely <1%
91. Brampton East NDP likely <1%
92. Timmins NDP likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PCO safe
2. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PCO safe
3. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PCO safe
4. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes PCO safe
5. Thornhill PCO safe
6. Simcoe—Grey PCO safe
7. Elgin—Middlesex—London PCO safe
8. Haldimand—Norfolk PCO safe
9. Dufferin—Caledon PCO safe
10. York—Simcoe PCO safe
11. Wellington—Halton Hills PCO safe
12. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PCO safe
13. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PCO safe
14. Parry Sound—Muskoka PCO safe
15. Barrie—Innisfil PCO safe
16. Nipissing PCO safe
17. Niagara West PCO safe
18. Hastings—Lennox and Addington PCO safe
19. Huron—Bruce PCO safe
20. Oxford PCO safe
21. Markham—Unionville PCO safe
22. Bay of Quinte PCO safe
23. Perth—Wellington PCO safe
24. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PCO safe
25. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PCO safe
26. Kenora—Rainy River PCO likely
27. Etobicoke North PCO likely
28. Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCO likely
29. Durham PCO likely
30. Sault Ste. Marie PCO likely
31. Sarnia—Lambton PCO likely
32. Kanata—Carleton PCO likely
33. Whitby PCO likely
34. Simcoe North PCO likely
35. Carleton PCO likely
36. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO likely
37. Kitchener—Conestoga PCO likely
38. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PCO likely
39. Nepean PCO likely
40. Kitchener South—Hespeler PCO likely
41. King—Vaughan PCO likely
42. York Centre PCO leaning
43. Scarborough North PCO leaning
44. Brantford—Brant PCO leaning
45. Mississauga Centre PCO leaning
46. Brampton South PCO leaning
47. Scarborough—Agincourt PCO leaning
48. Brampton West Toss up OLP/PCO
49. Pickering—Uxbridge Toss up OLP/PCO
50. Markham—Thornhill Toss up OLP/PCO
51. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up OLP/PCO
52. Brampton Centre Toss up OLP/PCO/NDP
53. Richmond Hill Toss up OLP/PCO
54. Essex Toss up PCO/NDP
55. Scarborough—Rouge Park Toss up OLP/PCO
56. Northumberland—Peterborough South Toss up OLP/PCO
57. Mississauga—Malton Toss up OLP/PCO
58. Willowdale Toss up OLP/PCO
59. Peterborough—Kawartha Toss up OLP/PCO
60. Oakville North—Burlington Toss up OLP/PCO
61. Niagara Centre Toss up PCO/NDP
62. Vaughan—Woodbridge Toss up OLP/PCO
63. Markham—Stouffville Toss up OLP/PCO
64. Scarborough Centre Toss up OLP/PCO
65. Cambridge Toss up OLP/PCO
66. Etobicoke—Lakeshore OLP leaning
67. Ajax OLP leaning
68. Oshawa NDP leaning
69. Mississauga—Streetsville OLP leaning
70. Burlington OLP leaning
71. Don Valley North OLP leaning
72. Milton OLP leaning
73. Mississauga—Erin Mills OLP likely
74. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up OLP/NDP
75. Mushkegowuk—James Bay NDP likely
76. Kiiwetinoong NDP leaning
77. Oakville OLP likely
78. Niagara Falls NDP likely
79. Etobicoke Centre OLP likely
80. Brampton North Toss up OLP/NDP
81. Scarborough Southwest NDP leaning
82. Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP likely
83. St. Catharines Toss up OLP/NDP
84. London North Centre NDP likely
85. Humber River—Black Creek OLP leaning
86. Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP likely
87. Kitchener Centre Toss up OLP/NDP
88. Waterloo NDP likely
89. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell OLP likely
90. Eglinton—Lawrence OLP likely
91. Brampton East NDP likely
92. Timmins NDP likely



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