Progressive Conservative Party
Latest update: December 20, 2025
| Leader | Doug Ford |
| Popular vote in 2022 | 40.8% |
| Current vote projection | 44.8% ± 4.4% |
| Current number of MPP | 79 |
| Current seat projection | 81 [72-90] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | December 20, 2025
Seat projection | December 20, 2025
List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party
| Electoral districts | Current party | Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | George Pirie
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 2. | Michael Tibollo
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 3. | Stephen Lecce
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 4. | Laura Smith
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 5. | Nolan Quinn
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 6. | Billy Pang
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 7. | Greg Rickford
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 8. | Caroline Mulroney
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 9. | Doug Ford
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 10. | Graham Mcgregor
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 11. | Michael Parsa
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 12. | Amarjot Sandhu
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 13. | Rob Flack
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 14. | Anthony Leardi
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 15. | Ernie Hardeman
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 16. | Vic Fedeli
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 17. | Steve Clark
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 18. | Billy Denault
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 19. | Brian Saunderson
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 20. | Stephen Pinsonneault
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 21. | Andrea Khanjin
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 22. | Sylvia Jones
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 23. | David Piccini
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 24. | Trevor Jones
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 25. | Laurie Scott
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 26. | Hardeep Grewal
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 27. | Jill Dunlop
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 28. | Bob Bailey
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 29. | Todd Mccarthy
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 30. | Sam Oosterhoff
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 31. | Lisa Thompson
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 32. | Ric Bresee
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 33. | Will Bouma
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 34. | Matthew Rae
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 35. | Jess Dixon
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 36. | Joseph Racinsky
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 37. | Donna Skelly
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 38. | Kevin Holland
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 39. | Daisy Wai
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 40. | Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 41. | Andrew Dowie
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 42. | Paul Vickers
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 43. | John Jordan
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 44. | Michael Kerzner
|
Safe PCPO | |
| 45. | Charmaine Williams
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 46. | Raymond Cho
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 47. | Stéphane Sarrazin
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 48. | Tyler Allsopp
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 49. | Bill Rosenberg
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 50. | Doug Downey
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 51. | Mike Harris
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 52. | George Darouze
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 53. | Neil Lumsden
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 54. | Logan Kanapathi
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 55. | Deepak Anand
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 56. | Brian Riddell
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 57. | Effie Triantafilopoulos
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 58. | Paul Calandra
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 59. | Peter Bethlenfalvy
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 60. | Lorne Coe
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 61. | Vijay Thanigasalam
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 62. | Aris Babikian
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 63. | Kinga Surma
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 64. | Zee Hamid
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 65. | Monica Ciriello
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 66. | Natalia Kusendova
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 67. | Dawn Gallagher Murphy
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 68. | Dave Smith
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 69. | Nina Tangri
|
Likely PCPO | |
| 70. | Graydon Smith
|
Leaning PCPO | |
| 71. | Stephen Crawford
|
Leaning PCPO | |
| 72. | Rudy Cuzzetto
|
Leaning PCPO | |
| 73. | Silvia Gualtieri
|
Leaning PCPO | |
| 74. | David Smith
|
Leaning PCPO | |
| 75. | Stan Cho
|
Leaning PCPO | |
| 76. | Michelle Cooper
|
Leaning PCPO | |
| 77. | Natalie Pierre
|
Leaning PCPO | |
| 78. | Chris Scott [Elected as PC]
|
Leaning PCPO | |
| 79. | Mohamed Firin
|
Leaning PCPO | |
| 80. | Sheref Sabawy
|
Leaning PCPO | |
| 81. | Robert Cerjanec
|
Toss up OLP/PC | |
| 82. | Guy Bourgouin
|
Toss up PC/NDP | |
| 83. | Tom Rakocevic
|
Toss up PC/NDP | |
| 84. | Jonathan Tsao
|
Toss up OLP/PC | |
| 85. | Karen Mccrimmon
|
Toss up OLP/PC | |
| 86. | Lee Fairclough
|
Leaning OLP | |
| 87. | Jennifer French
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 88. | Tyler Watt
|
Leaning OLP | |
| 89. | Jeff Burch
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 90. | John Vanthof
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 91. | Sandy Shaw
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 92. | Andrea Hazell
|
Leaning OLP | |
| 93. | Lise Vaugeois
|
Leaning NDP | |
| 94. | Jamie West
|
Likely NDP | |
| 95. | Jennie Stevens
|
Likely NDP | |
| 96. | Lisa Gretzky
|
Likely NDP | |
| 97. | France Gélinas
|
Likely NDP | |
| 98. | Doly Begum
|
Likely NDP | |
| 99. | Teresa Armstrong
|
Likely NDP | |
| 100. | Stephen Blais
|
Likely OLP | |
| 101. | Stephanie Smyth
|
Likely OLP | |
| 102. | Peggy Sattler
|
Likely NDP | |
| 103. | Terence Kernaghan
|
Likely NDP | |
| 104. | Stephanie Bowman
|
Likely OLP | |
| 105. | Sol Mamakwa
|
Likely NDP | |
| 106. | Adil Shamji
|
Likely OLP | |
| 107. | Bobbi Ann Brady
|
IND safe | |
| 108. | Wayne J. Gates
|
Safe NDP | |
| 109. | Aislinn Clancy
|
Safe GPO | |
| 110. | Chandra Pasma
|
Safe NDP |