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Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: August 26, 2023

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 202240.8%
Current vote projection37.7% ± 3.9%
Current number of MPP79
Current seat projection76 [59-90]

Vote projection | August 26, 2023

29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 33.8% ▼ 37.7% ± 3.9% ▼ Max. 41.7% ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Seat projection | August 26, 2023

39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 89 94 99 104 109 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 59 ▼ Majority 63 seats 76 ▼ 2022 83 seats Max. 90 ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO >99%
2. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO >99%
3. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO >99%
4. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO >99%
5. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO >99%
6. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO >99%
7. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO >99%
8. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO >99%
9. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO >99%
10. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO >99%
11. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO >99%
12. Oxford Safe PCPO >99%
13. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO >99%
14. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO >99%
15. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO >99%
16. Whitby Safe PCPO >99%
17. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO >99%
18. Simcoe North Safe PCPO >99%
19. Bay of Quinte Safe PCPO >99%
20. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO >99%
21. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO >99%
22. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO >99%
23. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO >99%
24. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO >99%
25. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO >99%
26. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO >99%
27. Niagara West Safe PCPO >99%
28. Timmins Safe PCPO >99%
29. Brampton West Safe PCPO >99%
30. Durham Safe PCPO >99%
31. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO >99%
32. Essex Safe PCPO >99%
33. Carleton Safe PCPO >99%
34. Thornhill Likely PCPO >99%
35. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Likely PCPO >99%
36. Nipissing Likely PCPO >99%
37. Richmond Hill Likely PCPO >99%
38. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO >99%
39. Brampton South Likely PCPO >99%
40. Cambridge Likely PCPO 99%
41. Brantford—Brant Likely PCPO 99%
42. Windsor—Tecumseh Likely PCPO 99%
43. Scarborough North Likely PCPO 99%
44. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Likely PCPO 99%
45. Brampton North Likely PCPO 99%
46. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO 99%
47. Brampton Centre Likely PCPO 98%
48. Kitchener South—Hespeler Likely PCPO 98%
49. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 98%
50. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO 98%
51. Brampton East Likely PCPO 96%
52. Burlington Likely PCPO 96%
53. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO 96%
54. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 96%
55. York Centre Likely PCPO 96%
56. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO 94%
57. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 93%
58. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 91%
59. Don Valley North Leaning PCPO 85%
60. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO 85%
61. Scarborough—Agincourt Leaning PCPO 84%
62. Sault Ste. Marie Leaning PCPO 83%
63. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Leaning PCPO 83%
64. Markham—Thornhill Leaning PCPO 81%
65. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO 79%
66. Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO 75%
67. Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO 71%
68. Willowdale Toss up OLP/PCPO 67%
69. Parry Sound—Muskoka Toss up PCPO/GPO 66%
70. Nepean Toss up OLP/PCPO 65%
71. Scarborough Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 63%
72. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Toss up PCPO/NDP 62%
73. Oakville Toss up OLP/PCPO 60%
74. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO 56%
75. Milton Toss up OLP/PCPO 51%
76. York South—Weston Toss up PCPO/NDP 50%
77. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO 48%
78. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 48%
79. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Toss up OLP/PCPO 36%
80. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 35%
81. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO 35%
82. Kanata—Carleton Toss up OLP/PCPO 35%
83. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 34%
84. Oshawa Leaning NDP 23%
85. Niagara Centre Leaning NDP 22%
86. Ottawa West—Nepean Leaning NDP 21%
87. Haldimand—Norfolk IND leaning 15%
88. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning NDP 13%
89. St. Catharines Likely NDP 9%
90. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP 8%
91. Timiskaming—Cochrane Likely NDP 7%
92. Don Valley West Likely OLP 6%
93. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Likely NDP 6%
94. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/NDP 6%
95. Windsor West Likely NDP 5%
96. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Likely NDP 3%
97. Algoma—Manitoulin Likely NDP 3%
98. London North Centre Likely NDP 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO
2. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO
3. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO
4. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO
5. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO
6. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO
7. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO
8. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO
9. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO
10. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO
11. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO
12. Oxford Safe PCPO
13. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO
14. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO
15. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO
16. Whitby Safe PCPO
17. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO
18. Simcoe North Safe PCPO
19. Bay of Quinte Safe PCPO
20. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO
21. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO
22. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO
23. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO
24. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO
25. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO
26. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO
27. Niagara West Safe PCPO
28. Timmins Safe PCPO
29. Brampton West Safe PCPO
30. Durham Safe PCPO
31. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO
32. Essex Safe PCPO
33. Carleton Safe PCPO
34. Thornhill Likely PCPO
35. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Likely PCPO
36. Nipissing Likely PCPO
37. Richmond Hill Likely PCPO
38. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO
39. Brampton South Likely PCPO
40. Cambridge Likely PCPO
41. Brantford—Brant Likely PCPO
42. Windsor—Tecumseh Likely PCPO
43. Scarborough North Likely PCPO
44. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Likely PCPO
45. Brampton North Likely PCPO
46. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO
47. Brampton Centre Likely PCPO
48. Kitchener South—Hespeler Likely PCPO
49. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO
50. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO
51. Brampton East Likely PCPO
52. Burlington Likely PCPO
53. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO
54. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO
55. York Centre Likely PCPO
56. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO
57. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO
58. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO
59. Don Valley North Leaning PCPO
60. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO
61. Scarborough—Agincourt Leaning PCPO
62. Sault Ste. Marie Leaning PCPO
63. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Leaning PCPO
64. Markham—Thornhill Leaning PCPO
65. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO
66. Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO
67. Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO
68. Willowdale Toss up OLP/PCPO
69. Parry Sound—Muskoka Toss up PCPO/GPO
70. Nepean Toss up OLP/PCPO
71. Scarborough Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO
72. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Toss up PCPO/NDP
73. Oakville Toss up OLP/PCPO
74. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO
75. Milton Toss up OLP/PCPO
76. York South—Weston Toss up PCPO/NDP
77. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO
78. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO
79. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Toss up OLP/PCPO
80. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO
81. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO
82. Kanata—Carleton Toss up OLP/PCPO
83. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO
84. Oshawa Leaning NDP
85. Niagara Centre Leaning NDP
86. Ottawa West—Nepean Leaning NDP
87. Haldimand—Norfolk IND leaning
88. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning NDP
89. St. Catharines Likely NDP
90. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP
91. Timiskaming—Cochrane Likely NDP
92. Don Valley West Likely OLP
93. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Likely NDP
94. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/NDP
95. Windsor West Likely NDP
96. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Likely NDP
97. Algoma—Manitoulin Likely NDP
98. London North Centre Likely NDP