338Canada.com - Ontario - Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: December 10, 2020

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 201840.5%
Current vote projection44.5% ± 5.3%
Current number of MP's71
Current seat projection88 ± 16



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PCO safe >99%
2. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PCO safe >99%
3. Markham—Unionville PCO safe >99%
4. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PCO safe >99%
5. Thornhill PCO safe >99%
6. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes PCO safe >99%
7. Simcoe—Grey PCO safe >99%
8. York—Simcoe PCO safe >99%
9. Elgin—Middlesex—London PCO safe >99%
10. Haldimand—Norfolk PCO safe >99%
11. Nipissing PCO safe >99%
12. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PCO safe >99%
13. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PCO safe >99%
14. Oxford PCO safe >99%
15. Wellington—Halton Hills PCO safe >99%
16. King—Vaughan PCO safe >99%
17. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PCO safe >99%
18. Dufferin—Caledon PCO safe >99%
19. Etobicoke North PCO safe >99%
20. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PCO safe >99%
21. Carleton PCO safe >99%
22. Niagara West PCO safe >99%
23. Huron—Bruce PCO safe >99%
24. Hastings—Lennox and Addington PCO safe >99%
25. Kenora—Rainy River PCO safe >99%
26. Bay of Quinte PCO safe >99%
27. Barrie—Innisfil PCO safe >99%
28. York Centre PCO safe >99%
29. Perth—Wellington PCO safe >99%
30. Durham PCO safe >99%
31. Parry Sound—Muskoka PCO safe >99%
32. Whitby PCO safe >99%
33. Simcoe North PCO safe >99%
34. Nepean PCO safe >99%
35. Kanata—Carleton PCO safe >99%
36. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PCO safe >99%
37. Sarnia—Lambton PCO safe >99%
38. Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCO safe >99%
39. Scarborough North PCO safe >99%
40. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO safe >99%
41. Sault Ste. Marie PCO safe >99%
42. Brampton South PCO safe >99%
43. Markham—Thornhill PCO safe >99%
44. Newmarket—Aurora PCO safe >99%
45. Kitchener—Conestoga PCO safe >99%
46. Pickering—Uxbridge PCO safe >99%
47. Brampton West PCO safe >99%
48. Richmond Hill PCO safe >99%
49. Mississauga—Malton PCO likely >99%
50. Scarborough—Rouge Park PCO likely >99%
51. Oakville North—Burlington PCO likely >99%
52. Vaughan—Woodbridge PCO likely >99%
53. Markham—Stouffville PCO likely >99%
54. Kitchener South—Hespeler PCO likely >99%
55. Willowdale PCO likely >99%
56. Northumberland—Peterborough South PCO likely >99%
57. Scarborough—Agincourt PCO likely >99%
58. Scarborough Centre PCO likely 99%
59. Mississauga—Streetsville PCO likely 99%
60. Brantford—Brant PCO likely 99%
61. Brampton Centre PCO likely 99%
62. Ajax PCO likely 98%
63. Burlington PCO likely 98%
64. Mississauga—Erin Mills PCO likely 98%
65. Mississauga Centre PCO likely 97%
66. Etobicoke—Lakeshore PCO likely 97%
67. Cambridge PCO likely 97%
68. Peterborough—Kawartha PCO likely 96%
69. Oakville PCO likely 96%
70. Oshawa PCO likely 94%
71. Essex PCO likely 94%
72. Milton PCO likely 94%
73. Don Valley North PCO likely 93%
74. Niagara Centre PCO leaning 88%
75. Mississauga East—Cooksville PCO leaning 86%
76. Brampton North PCO leaning 85%
77. Mississauga—Lakeshore PCO leaning 85%
78. Etobicoke Centre PCO leaning 83%
79. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas PCO leaning 81%
80. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell PCO leaning 74%
81. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up 67%
82. Scarborough Southwest Toss up 64%
83. St. Catharines Toss up 63%
84. York South—Weston Toss up 62%
85. Niagara Falls Toss up 59%
86. Kitchener Centre Toss up 58%
87. Don Valley West Toss up 52%
88. Brampton East Toss up 51%
89. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up 47%
90. London North Centre Toss up 45%
91. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up 44%
92. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up 44%
93. Kiiwetinoong Toss up 44%
94. Waterloo Toss up 40%
95. Scarborough—Guildwood Toss up 37%
96. Don Valley East OLP leaning 25%
97. Windsor West NDP leaning 23%
98. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP leaning 22%
99. Orléans OLP leaning 20%
100. Kingston and the Islands OLP leaning 16%
101. Timmins NDP leaning 15%
102. London West NDP leaning 13%
103. Sudbury NDP leaning 11%
104. Hamilton Mountain NDP leaning 10%
105. London—Fanshawe NDP likely 10%
106. Toronto—St. Paul`s Toss up 9%
107. Spadina—Fort York NDP leaning 4%
108. University—Rosedale NDP leaning 3%
109. Algoma—Manitoulin NDP likely 2%
110. Ottawa South OLP likely 2%
111. Windsor—Tecumseh NDP likely 2%
112. Thunder Bay—Atikokan OLP likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke PCO safe
2. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock PCO safe
3. Markham—Unionville PCO safe
4. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry PCO safe
5. Thornhill PCO safe
6. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes PCO safe
7. Simcoe—Grey PCO safe
8. York—Simcoe PCO safe
9. Elgin—Middlesex—London PCO safe
10. Haldimand—Norfolk PCO safe
11. Nipissing PCO safe
12. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PCO safe
13. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex PCO safe
14. Oxford PCO safe
15. Wellington—Halton Hills PCO safe
16. King—Vaughan PCO safe
17. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound PCO safe
18. Dufferin—Caledon PCO safe
19. Etobicoke North PCO safe
20. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston PCO safe
21. Carleton PCO safe
22. Niagara West PCO safe
23. Huron—Bruce PCO safe
24. Hastings—Lennox and Addington PCO safe
25. Kenora—Rainy River PCO safe
26. Bay of Quinte PCO safe
27. Barrie—Innisfil PCO safe
28. York Centre PCO safe
29. Perth—Wellington PCO safe
30. Durham PCO safe
31. Parry Sound—Muskoka PCO safe
32. Whitby PCO safe
33. Simcoe North PCO safe
34. Nepean PCO safe
35. Kanata—Carleton PCO safe
36. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte PCO safe
37. Sarnia—Lambton PCO safe
38. Chatham-Kent—Leamington PCO safe
39. Scarborough North PCO safe
40. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO safe
41. Sault Ste. Marie PCO safe
42. Brampton South PCO safe
43. Markham—Thornhill PCO safe
44. Newmarket—Aurora PCO safe
45. Kitchener—Conestoga PCO safe
46. Pickering—Uxbridge PCO safe
47. Brampton West PCO safe
48. Richmond Hill PCO safe
49. Mississauga—Malton PCO likely
50. Scarborough—Rouge Park PCO likely
51. Oakville North—Burlington PCO likely
52. Vaughan—Woodbridge PCO likely
53. Markham—Stouffville PCO likely
54. Kitchener South—Hespeler PCO likely
55. Willowdale PCO likely
56. Northumberland—Peterborough South PCO likely
57. Scarborough—Agincourt PCO likely
58. Scarborough Centre PCO likely
59. Mississauga—Streetsville PCO likely
60. Brantford—Brant PCO likely
61. Brampton Centre PCO likely
62. Ajax PCO likely
63. Burlington PCO likely
64. Mississauga—Erin Mills PCO likely
65. Mississauga Centre PCO likely
66. Etobicoke—Lakeshore PCO likely
67. Cambridge PCO likely
68. Peterborough—Kawartha PCO likely
69. Oakville PCO likely
70. Oshawa PCO likely
71. Essex PCO likely
72. Milton PCO likely
73. Don Valley North PCO likely
74. Niagara Centre PCO leaning
75. Mississauga East—Cooksville PCO leaning
76. Brampton North PCO leaning
77. Mississauga—Lakeshore PCO leaning
78. Etobicoke Centre PCO leaning
79. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas PCO leaning
80. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell PCO leaning
81. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up
82. Scarborough Southwest Toss up
83. St. Catharines Toss up
84. York South—Weston Toss up
85. Niagara Falls Toss up
86. Kitchener Centre Toss up
87. Don Valley West Toss up
88. Brampton East Toss up
89. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up
90. London North Centre Toss up
91. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up
92. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up
93. Kiiwetinoong Toss up
94. Waterloo Toss up
95. Scarborough—Guildwood Toss up
96. Don Valley East OLP leaning
97. Windsor West NDP leaning
98. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek NDP leaning
99. Orléans OLP leaning
100. Kingston and the Islands OLP leaning
101. Timmins NDP leaning
102. London West NDP leaning
103. Sudbury NDP leaning
104. Hamilton Mountain NDP leaning
105. London—Fanshawe NDP likely
106. Toronto—St. Paul`s Toss up
107. Spadina—Fort York NDP leaning
108. University—Rosedale NDP leaning
109. Algoma—Manitoulin NDP likely
110. Ottawa South OLP likely
111. Windsor—Tecumseh NDP likely
112. Thunder Bay—Atikokan OLP likely



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