logo
logo
Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: January 20, 2025

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 202240.8%
Current vote projection40.3% ± 4.2%
Current number of MPP79
Current seat projection81 [61-100]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PCPO 338Canada ©2023 4.4 seat/% 81 [61-100] 40% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | January 20, 2025

31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 36.0% ▼ 40.3% ± 4.2% ▼ Max. 44.5% ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Seat projection | January 20, 2025

37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 102 107 112 117 122 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 61 ▼ Majority 63 seats 81 ▼ 2022 83 seats Max. 100 ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO >99%
2. Timmins Safe PCPO >99%
3. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO >99%
4. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO >99%
5. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO >99%
6. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO >99%
7. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO >99%
8. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO >99%
9. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO >99%
10. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO >99%
11. Essex Safe PCPO >99%
12. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO >99%
13. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO >99%
14. Oxford Safe PCPO >99%
15. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO >99%
16. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO >99%
17. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO >99%
18. Nipissing Safe PCPO >99%
19. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO >99%
20. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO >99%
21. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO >99%
22. Simcoe North Safe PCPO >99%
23. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO >99%
24. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO >99%
25. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO >99%
26. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO >99%
27. Whitby Safe PCPO >99%
28. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO >99%
29. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO >99%
30. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO >99%
31. Windsor—Tecumseh Safe PCPO >99%
32. Niagara West Safe PCPO >99%
33. Kitchener South—Hespeler Safe PCPO >99%
34. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO >99%
35. Durham Safe PCPO >99%
36. Brampton West Safe PCPO >99%
37. Carleton Likely PCPO >99%
38. Thornhill Likely PCPO >99%
39. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO >99%
40. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Likely PCPO >99%
41. Sault Ste. Marie Likely PCPO >99%
42. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO >99%
43. Scarborough North Likely PCPO >99%
44. Brampton South Likely PCPO 99%
45. Richmond Hill Likely PCPO 99%
46. Brampton East Likely PCPO 99%
47. Brampton Centre Likely PCPO 99%
48. Cambridge Likely PCPO 99%
49. Brampton North Likely PCPO 98%
50. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO 98%
51. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO 98%
52. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO 97%
53. York Centre Likely PCPO 97%
54. Burlington Likely PCPO 96%
55. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 95%
56. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO 94%
57. Kanata—Carleton Likely PCPO 94%
58. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO 93%
59. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 92%
60. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 92%
61. Don Valley North Likely PCPO 91%
62. Oakville North—Burlington Leaning PCPO 90%
63. Parry Sound—Muskoka Leaning PCPO 85%
64. York South—Weston Leaning PCPO 85%
65. Markham—Thornhill Leaning PCPO 83%
66. Bay of Quinte Leaning PCPO 80%
67. Milton Leaning PCPO 79%
68. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO 78%
69. Willowdale Leaning PCPO 78%
70. Scarborough Centre Leaning PCPO 73%
71. Niagara Centre Leaning PCPO 72%
72. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO 72%
73. Nepean Toss up OLP/PCPO 66%
74. Oakville Toss up OLP/PCPO 63%
75. Timiskaming—Cochrane Toss up PCPO/NDP 58%
76. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Toss up OLP/PCPO 58%
77. Mississauga—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 58%
78. Mississauga Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 55%
79. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Toss up OLP/PCPO 55%
80. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 52%
81. St. Catharines Toss up PCPO/NDP 51%
82. Oshawa Toss up PCPO/NDP 48%
83. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up PCPO/NDP 47%
84. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 47%
85. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO 46%
86. Windsor West Toss up PCPO/NDP 43%
87. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO 41%
88. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO 41%
89. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP 41%
90. Algoma—Manitoulin Toss up PCPO/NDP 36%
91. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up PCPO/NDP 33%
92. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 32%
93. London North Centre Leaning NDP 21%
94. Niagara Falls Leaning NDP 20%
95. Sudbury Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 19%
96. London West Leaning NDP 18%
97. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 18%
98. Don Valley West Leaning OLP 18%
99. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning OLP 10%
100. Haldimand—Norfolk IND likely 9%
101. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP 9%
102. London—Fanshawe Likely NDP 8%
103. Hamilton Mountain Likely NDP 5%
104. Kiiwetinoong Likely NDP 5%
105. Nickel Belt Likely NDP 3%
106. Waterloo Likely NDP 3%
107. Don Valley East Likely OLP 2%