Progressive Conservative Party

Latest update: June 28, 2026

Leader	Doug Ford
Popular vote in 2025	43.0%
Current vote projection	37.9% ± 4.2%
Current number of MPP	79
Current seat projection	55 [40-69]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | June 28, 2026

Seat projection | June 28, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party

	Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
1.	Timmins George Pirie	PC	Safe PCPO
2.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Tibollo	PC	Safe PCPO
3.	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Nolan Quinn	PC	Safe PCPO
4.	Essex Anthony Leardi	PC	Safe PCPO
5.	Nipissing Vic Fedeli	PC	Safe PCPO
6.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Trevor Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
7.	York—Simcoe Caroline Mulroney	PC	Safe PCPO
8.	Sarnia—Lambton Bob Bailey	PC	Safe PCPO
9.	Kenora—Rainy River Greg Rickford	PC	Safe PCPO
10.	King—Vaughan Stephen Lecce	PC	Safe PCPO
11.	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Billy Denault	PC	Safe PCPO
12.	Thornhill Laura Smith	PC	Safe PCPO
13.	Etobicoke North Doug Ford	PC	Safe PCPO
14.	Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
15.	Brantford—Brant Will Bouma	PC	Safe PCPO
16.	Oxford Ernie Hardeman	PC	Safe PCPO
17.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
18.	Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Likely PCPO
19.	Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Likely PCPO
20.	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Likely PCPO
21.	Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Likely PCPO
22.	Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Likely PCPO
23.	Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Likely PCPO
24.	Windsor—Tecumseh Andrew Dowie	PC	Likely PCPO
25.	Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Likely PCPO
26.	Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Likely PCPO
27.	Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Likely PCPO
28.	Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Likely PCPO
29.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Likely PCPO
30.	York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Likely PCPO
31.	Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Likely PCPO
32.	Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Likely PCPO
33.	Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
34.	Algoma—Manitoulin Bill Rosenberg	PC	Likely PCPO
35.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Likely PCPO
36.	Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Likely PCPO
37.	Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Likely PCPO
38.	Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Leaning PCPO
39.	Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Leaning PCPO
40.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Leaning PCPO
41.	Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Leaning PCPO
42.	Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Leaning PCPO
43.	Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Leaning PCPO
44.	Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Leaning PCPO
45.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Leaning PCPO
46.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Leaning PCPO
47.	Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Leaning PCPO
48.	Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
49.	Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
50.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
51.	Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
52.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
53.	Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
54.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Graydon Smith	PC	Toss up PC/GPO
55.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Neil Lumsden	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
56.	Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
57.	Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
58.	Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
59.	Carleton George Darouze	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
60.	Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
61.	Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Leaning OLP
62.	Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Leaning OLP
63.	Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
64.	Sault Ste. Marie Chris Scott [Elected as PC]	I	Leaning NDP
65.	Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Leaning OLP
66.	Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Leaning OLP
67.	Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Leaning OLP
68.	Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Leaning OLP
69.	Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Toss up OLP/PC/NDP
70.	Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Leaning OLP
71.	York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Leaning OLP
72.	Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
73.	Mushkegowuk—James Bay Guy Bourgouin	N	Leaning NDP
74.	Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Leaning OLP
75.	Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Leaning OLP
76.	Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Leaning OLP
77.	Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Likely OLP
78.	Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Likely OLP
79.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Likely OLP
80.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Likely OLP
81.	Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Likely OLP
82.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Likely OLP
83.	Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Likely OLP
84.	Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Likely OLP
85.	Niagara Centre Jeff Burch	N	Likely NDP
86.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Sandy Shaw	N	Likely NDP
87.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Likely OLP
88.	Timiskaming—Cochrane John Vanthof	N	Likely NDP
89.	Oshawa Jennifer French	N	Likely NDP
90.	St. Catharines Jennie Stevens	N	Likely NDP
91.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Lise Vaugeois	N	Likely NDP
92.	Sudbury Jamie West	N	Likely NDP
93.	Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum	N	Likely NDP
94.	Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
95.	Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Likely OLP
96.	Windsor West Lisa Gretzky	N	Safe NDP
97.	Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Safe OLP
98.	Nickel Belt France Gélinas	N	Safe NDP
99.	London—Fanshawe Teresa Armstrong	N	Safe NDP
100.	Kiiwetinoong Sol Mamakwa	N	Safe NDP
101.	London North Centre Terence Kernaghan	N	Safe NDP
102.	Haldimand—Norfolk Bobbi Ann Brady	I	IND safe
103.	London West Peggy Sattler	N	Safe NDP

Progressive Conservative Party

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Vote projection | June 28, 2026

Seat projection | June 28, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party