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Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: November 12, 2024

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 202240.8%
Current vote projection41.1% ± 4.1%
Current number of MPP79
Current seat projection91 [70-103]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PCPO 338Canada ©2023 3.8 seat/% 91 [70-103] 41% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | November 12, 2024

32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 37.0% ▼ 41.1% ± 4.1% ▼ Max. 45.2% ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Seat projection | November 12, 2024

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 63 seats Min. 70 ▼ 2022 83 seats 91 ▼ Max. 103 ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Timmins Safe PCPO >99%
2. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO >99%
3. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO >99%
4. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO >99%
5. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO >99%
6. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO >99%
7. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO >99%
8. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO >99%
9. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO >99%
10. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO >99%
11. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO >99%
12. Essex Safe PCPO >99%
13. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO >99%
14. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO >99%
15. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO >99%
16. Oxford Safe PCPO >99%
17. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO >99%
18. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO >99%
19. Nipissing Safe PCPO >99%
20. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO >99%
21. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO >99%
22. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO >99%
23. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO >99%
24. Whitby Safe PCPO >99%
25. Brampton West Safe PCPO >99%
26. Simcoe North Safe PCPO >99%
27. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO >99%
28. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO >99%
29. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO >99%
30. Windsor—Tecumseh Safe PCPO >99%
31. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO >99%
32. Durham Safe PCPO >99%
33. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO >99%
34. Niagara West Safe PCPO >99%
35. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO >99%
36. Thornhill Safe PCPO >99%
37. Kitchener South—Hespeler Safe PCPO >99%
38. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
39. Carleton Safe PCPO >99%
40. Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
41. Kitchener—Conestoga Safe PCPO >99%
42. Brampton South Safe PCPO >99%
43. Brampton Centre Safe PCPO >99%
44. Sault Ste. Marie Safe PCPO >99%
45. Brampton North Likely PCPO >99%
46. Brampton East Likely PCPO >99%
47. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO >99%
48. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO >99%
49. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO >99%
50. Cambridge Likely PCPO >99%
51. Scarborough North Likely PCPO >99%
52. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 99%
53. Burlington Likely PCPO 99%
54. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 99%
55. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 99%
56. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 98%
57. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO 98%
58. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO 98%
59. Kanata—Carleton Likely PCPO 98%
60. York Centre Likely PCPO 97%
61. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO 96%
62. Milton Likely PCPO 95%
63. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO 95%
64. Don Valley North Likely PCPO 93%
65. Mississauga—Streetsville Likely PCPO 92%
66. Bay of Quinte Likely PCPO 92%
67. Peterborough—Kawartha Likely PCPO 90%
68. York South—Weston Leaning PCPO 89%
69. Oakville Leaning PCPO 87%
70. Niagara Centre Leaning PCPO 84%
71. Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO 84%
72. Nepean Leaning PCPO 83%
73. Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO 82%
74. Willowdale Leaning PCPO 82%
75. Scarborough Centre Leaning PCPO 78%
76. Parry Sound—Muskoka Leaning PCPO 78%
77. Ajax Leaning PCPO 76%
78. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Leaning PCPO 75%
79. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Leaning PCPO 74%
80. Mississauga—Erin Mills Leaning PCPO 72%
81. Timiskaming—Cochrane Leaning PCPO 71%
82. Oshawa Toss up PCPO/NDP 69%
83. St. Catharines Toss up PCPO/NDP 66%
84. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 63%
85. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up PCPO/NDP 62%
86. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO 61%
87. Windsor West Toss up PCPO/NDP 58%
88. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 58%
89. Algoma—Manitoulin Toss up PCPO/NDP 52%
90. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 52%
91. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP 51%
92. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up PCPO/NDP 47%
93. London North Centre Toss up PCPO/NDP 34%
94. Niagara Falls Toss up PCPO/NDP 33%
95. Sudbury Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 33%
96. London West Toss up PCPO/NDP 30%
97. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 21%
98. Don Valley West Leaning OLP 21%
99. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning OLP 20%
100. London—Fanshawe Leaning NDP 15%
101. Haldimand—Norfolk IND leaning 14%
102. Scarborough—Guildwood Leaning OLP 11%
103. Hamilton Mountain Likely NDP 10%
104. Kiiwetinoong Likely NDP 8%
105. Nickel Belt Likely NDP 6%
106. Waterloo Likely NDP 5%
107. Don Valley East Likely OLP 2%
108. Orléans Likely OLP 1%