Progressive Conservative Party

Latest update: September 3, 2026

Leader	Doug Ford
Popular vote in 2025	43.0%
Current vote projection	38.7% ± 4.4%
Current number of MPP	79
Current seat projection	61 [46-75]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | September 3, 2026

Seat projection | September 3, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party

	Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
1.	Timmins George Pirie	PC	Safe PCPO
2.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Tibollo	PC	Safe PCPO
3.	King—Vaughan Stephen Lecce	PC	Safe PCPO
4.	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Nolan Quinn	PC	Safe PCPO
5.	Kenora—Rainy River Greg Rickford	PC	Safe PCPO
6.	Oxford Ernie Hardeman	PC	Safe PCPO
7.	Essex Anthony Leardi	PC	Safe PCPO
8.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington Trevor Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
9.	Sarnia—Lambton Bob Bailey	PC	Safe PCPO
10.	Thornhill Laura Smith	PC	Safe PCPO
11.	Etobicoke North Doug Ford	PC	Safe PCPO
12.	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Billy Denault	PC	Safe PCPO
13.	Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
14.	Nipissing Vic Fedeli	PC	Safe PCPO
15.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
16.	Brantford—Brant Will Bouma	PC	Safe PCPO
17.	Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
18.	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Likely PCPO
19.	Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Likely PCPO
20.	Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Likely PCPO
21.	Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Likely PCPO
22.	Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Likely PCPO
23.	Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Likely PCPO
24.	Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Likely PCPO
25.	York—Simcoe Susan Lahey	PC	Likely PCPO
26.	Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Likely PCPO
27.	York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Likely PCPO
28.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Likely PCPO
29.	Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Likely PCPO
30.	Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Likely PCPO
31.	Windsor—Tecumseh Andrew Dowie	PC	Likely PCPO
32.	Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
33.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Likely PCPO
34.	Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Likely PCPO
35.	Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Likely PCPO
36.	Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Likely PCPO
37.	Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Likely PCPO
38.	Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Likely PCPO
39.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Likely PCPO
40.	Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Likely PCPO
41.	Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Likely PCPO
42.	Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Likely PCPO
43.	Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Likely PCPO
44.	Algoma—Manitoulin Bill Rosenberg	PC	Likely PCPO
45.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Leaning PCPO
46.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Leaning PCPO
47.	Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Leaning PCPO
48.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Jeff Beattie	PC	Leaning PCPO
49.	Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Leaning PCPO
50.	Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Leaning PCPO
51.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Leaning PCPO
52.	Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Leaning PCPO
53.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Leaning PCPO
54.	Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
55.	Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
56.	Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
57.	Parry Sound—Muskoka Graydon Smith	PC	Toss up PC/GPO
58.	Carleton George Darouze	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
59.	Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
60.	Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
61.	Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Toss up OLP/PC/NDP
62.	Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
63.	Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
64.	Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
65.	Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
66.	Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
67.	Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
68.	Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
69.	York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Leaning OLP
70.	Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
71.	Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Leaning OLP
72.	Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Leaning OLP
73.	Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Leaning OLP
74.	Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Leaning OLP
75.	Sault Ste. Marie Chris Scott [Elected as PC]	I	Leaning NDP
76.	Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Leaning NDP
77.	Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Leaning OLP
78.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Leaning OLP
79.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Leaning OLP
80.	Mushkegowuk—James Bay Guy Bourgouin	N	Leaning NDP
81.	Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Likely OLP
82.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Likely OLP
83.	Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Likely OLP
84.	Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Likely OLP
85.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Likely OLP
86.	Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Likely OLP
87.	Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
88.	Niagara Centre Jeff Burch	N	Likely NDP
89.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Sandy Shaw	N	Likely NDP
90.	Timiskaming—Cochrane John Vanthof	N	Likely NDP
91.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Lise Vaugeois	N	Likely NDP
92.	Oshawa Jennifer French	N	Likely NDP
93.	Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Likely OLP
94.	St. Catharines Jennie Stevens	N	Likely NDP
95.	Sudbury Jamie West	N	Likely NDP
96.	Windsor West Lisa Gretzky	N	Safe NDP
97.	Scarborough Southwest Fatima Shaban	N	Likely NDP
98.	Nickel Belt France Gélinas	N	Safe NDP
99.	London—Fanshawe Teresa Armstrong	N	Safe NDP
100.	Orléans Stephen Blais	L	Safe OLP
101.	Kiiwetinoong Sol Mamakwa	N	Safe NDP

Progressive Conservative Party

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Vote projection | September 3, 2026

Seat projection | September 3, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party