Progressive Conservative Party

Last update: December 30, 2022
Leader | Doug Ford |
Popular vote in 2022 | 40.8% |
Current vote projection | 40.4% ± 4.5% |
Current number of MPP | 83 |
Current seat projection | 83 [66-94] |
Vote projection | December 30, 2022
Seat projection | December 30, 2022
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Timmins | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
2. | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
3. | Kenora—Rainy River | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
4. | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
5. | Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
6. | King—Vaughan | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
7. | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
8. | York—Simcoe | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
9. | Etobicoke North | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
10. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
11. | Sarnia—Lambton | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
12. | Huron—Bruce | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
13. | Simcoe—Grey | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
14. | Elgin—Middlesex—London | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
15. | Northumberland—Peterborough South | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
16. | Wellington—Halton Hills | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
17. | Barrie—Innisfil | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
18. | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
19. | Oxford | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
20. | Simcoe North | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
21. | Dufferin—Caledon | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
22. | Bay of Quinte | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
23. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
24. | Whitby | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
25. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
26. | Flamborough—Glanbrook | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
27. | Niagara West | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
28. | Perth—Wellington | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
29. | Durham | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
30. | Markham—Unionville | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
31. | Brampton West | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
32. | Essex | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
33. | Thornhill | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
34. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
35. | Carleton | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
36. | Kanata—Carleton | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
37. | Richmond Hill | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
38. | Nipissing | ![]() |
Safe PCPO | >99% |
39. | Brampton South | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | >99% |
40. | Scarborough North | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | >99% |
41. | Scarborough—Rouge Park | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | >99% |
42. | Cambridge | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | >99% |
43. | Brampton North | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | >99% |
44. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | >99% |
45. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | >99% |
46. | Pickering—Uxbridge | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | >99% |
47. | Brantford—Brant | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | >99% |
48. | Windsor—Tecumseh | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 99% |
49. | Mississauga—Malton | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 99% |
50. | Brampton Centre | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 99% |
51. | Kitchener South—Hespeler | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 99% |
52. | Burlington | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 99% |
53. | Etobicoke Centre | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 99% |
54. | Newmarket—Aurora | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 98% |
55. | York Centre | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 98% |
56. | Brampton East | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 98% |
57. | Markham—Stouffville | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 97% |
58. | Oakville North—Burlington | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 96% |
59. | Kitchener—Conestoga | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 96% |
60. | Scarborough—Agincourt | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 95% |
61. | Markham—Thornhill | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 94% |
62. | Mississauga—Streetsville | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 94% |
63. | Don Valley North | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 94% |
64. | Peterborough—Kawartha | ![]() |
Likely PCPO | 91% |
65. | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | ![]() |
Leaning PCPO | 89% |
66. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | ![]() |
Leaning PCPO | 88% |
67. | Sault Ste. Marie | ![]() |
Leaning PCPO | 88% |
68. | Mississauga Centre | ![]() |
Leaning PCPO | 86% |
69. | Willowdale | ![]() |
Leaning PCPO | 83% |
70. | Nepean | ![]() |
Leaning PCPO | 82% |
71. | Scarborough Centre | ![]() |
Leaning PCPO | 81% |
72. | Oakville | ![]() |
Leaning PCPO | 78% |
73. | Ajax | ![]() |
Leaning PCPO | 75% |
74. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | ![]() |
Leaning PCPO | 75% |
75. | Milton | ![]() |
Leaning PCPO | 72% |
76. | Mississauga East—Cooksville | ![]() |
Toss up OLP/PCPO | 70% |
77. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | ![]() |
Toss up PCPO/GPO | 69% |
78. | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | ![]() |
Toss up OLP/PCPO | 68% |
79. | Thunder Bay—Atikokan | ![]() |
Toss up PCPO/NDP | 65% |
80. | York South—Weston | ![]() |
Toss up PCPO/NDP | 62% |
81. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | ![]() |
Toss up OLP/PCPO | 59% |
82. | Eglinton—Lawrence | ![]() |
Toss up OLP/PCPO | 58% |
83. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | ![]() |
Toss up OLP/PCPO | 58% |
84. | Oshawa | ![]() |
Toss up PCPO/NDP | 33% |
85. | Niagara Centre | ![]() |
Toss up PCPO/NDP | 32% |
86. | Ottawa West—Nepean | ![]() |
Toss up PCPO/NDP | 30% |
87. | Haldimand—Norfolk | ![]() |
IND leaning | 29% |
88. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | ![]() |
Toss up PCPO/NDP | 22% |
89. | Don Valley West | ![]() |
Leaning OLP | 20% |
90. | St. Catharines | ![]() |
Leaning NDP | 15% |
91. | Humber River—Black Creek | ![]() |
Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP | 12% |
92. | Timiskaming—Cochrane | ![]() |
Leaning NDP | 12% |
93. | Windsor West | ![]() |
Leaning NDP | 10% |
94. | Mushkegowuk—James Bay | ![]() |
Likely NDP | 9% |
95. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | ![]() |
Likely NDP | 7% |
96. | Algoma—Manitoulin | ![]() |
Likely NDP | 5% |
97. | London North Centre | ![]() |
Likely NDP | 3% |
98. | Don Valley East | ![]() |
Likely OLP | 3% |
99. | Niagara Falls | ![]() |
Likely NDP | 3% |
100. | London West | ![]() |
Likely NDP | 2% |
101. | Sudbury | ![]() |
Likely NDP | 2% |
102. | Orléans | ![]() |
Likely OLP | 1% |
Rank | Electoral districts | Projection |
---|---|---|
1. | Timmins | Safe PCPO |
2. | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | Safe PCPO |
3. | Kenora—Rainy River | Safe PCPO |
4. | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | Safe PCPO |
5. | Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes | Safe PCPO |
6. | King—Vaughan | Safe PCPO |
7. | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | Safe PCPO |
8. | York—Simcoe | Safe PCPO |
9. | Etobicoke North | Safe PCPO |
10. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | Safe PCPO |
11. | Sarnia—Lambton | Safe PCPO |
12. | Huron—Bruce | Safe PCPO |
13. | Simcoe—Grey | Safe PCPO |
14. | Elgin—Middlesex—London | Safe PCPO |
15. | Northumberland—Peterborough South | Safe PCPO |
16. | Wellington—Halton Hills | Safe PCPO |
17. | Barrie—Innisfil | Safe PCPO |
18. | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | Safe PCPO |
19. | Oxford | Safe PCPO |
20. | Simcoe North | Safe PCPO |
21. | Dufferin—Caledon | Safe PCPO |
22. | Bay of Quinte | Safe PCPO |
23. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | Safe PCPO |
24. | Whitby | Safe PCPO |
25. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington | Safe PCPO |
26. | Flamborough—Glanbrook | Safe PCPO |
27. | Niagara West | Safe PCPO |
28. | Perth—Wellington | Safe PCPO |
29. | Durham | Safe PCPO |
30. | Markham—Unionville | Safe PCPO |
31. | Brampton West | Safe PCPO |
32. | Essex | Safe PCPO |
33. | Thornhill | Safe PCPO |
34. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | Safe PCPO |
35. | Carleton | Safe PCPO |
36. | Kanata—Carleton | Safe PCPO |
37. | Richmond Hill | Safe PCPO |
38. | Nipissing | Safe PCPO |
39. | Brampton South | Likely PCPO |
40. | Scarborough North | Likely PCPO |
41. | Scarborough—Rouge Park | Likely PCPO |
42. | Cambridge | Likely PCPO |
43. | Brampton North | Likely PCPO |
44. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | Likely PCPO |
45. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | Likely PCPO |
46. | Pickering—Uxbridge | Likely PCPO |
47. | Brantford—Brant | Likely PCPO |
48. | Windsor—Tecumseh | Likely PCPO |
49. | Mississauga—Malton | Likely PCPO |
50. | Brampton Centre | Likely PCPO |
51. | Kitchener South—Hespeler | Likely PCPO |
52. | Burlington | Likely PCPO |
53. | Etobicoke Centre | Likely PCPO |
54. | Newmarket—Aurora | Likely PCPO |
55. | York Centre | Likely PCPO |
56. | Brampton East | Likely PCPO |
57. | Markham—Stouffville | Likely PCPO |
58. | Oakville North—Burlington | Likely PCPO |
59. | Kitchener—Conestoga | Likely PCPO |
60. | Scarborough—Agincourt | Likely PCPO |
61. | Markham—Thornhill | Likely PCPO |
62. | Mississauga—Streetsville | Likely PCPO |
63. | Don Valley North | Likely PCPO |
64. | Peterborough—Kawartha | Likely PCPO |
65. | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | Leaning PCPO |
66. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | Leaning PCPO |
67. | Sault Ste. Marie | Leaning PCPO |
68. | Mississauga Centre | Leaning PCPO |
69. | Willowdale | Leaning PCPO |
70. | Nepean | Leaning PCPO |
71. | Scarborough Centre | Leaning PCPO |
72. | Oakville | Leaning PCPO |
73. | Ajax | Leaning PCPO |
74. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | Leaning PCPO |
75. | Milton | Leaning PCPO |
76. | Mississauga East—Cooksville | Toss up OLP/PCPO |
77. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | Toss up PCPO/GPO |
78. | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | Toss up OLP/PCPO |
79. | Thunder Bay—Atikokan | Toss up PCPO/NDP |
80. | York South—Weston | Toss up PCPO/NDP |
81. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | Toss up OLP/PCPO |
82. | Eglinton—Lawrence | Toss up OLP/PCPO |
83. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | Toss up OLP/PCPO |
84. | Oshawa | Toss up PCPO/NDP |
85. | Niagara Centre | Toss up PCPO/NDP |
86. | Ottawa West—Nepean | Toss up PCPO/NDP |
87. | Haldimand—Norfolk | IND leaning |
88. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | Toss up PCPO/NDP |
89. | Don Valley West | Leaning OLP |
90. | St. Catharines | Leaning NDP |
91. | Humber River—Black Creek | Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP |
92. | Timiskaming—Cochrane | Leaning NDP |
93. | Windsor West | Leaning NDP |
94. | Mushkegowuk—James Bay | Likely NDP |
95. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | Likely NDP |
96. | Algoma—Manitoulin | Likely NDP |
97. | London North Centre | Likely NDP |
98. | Don Valley East | Likely OLP |
99. | Niagara Falls | Likely NDP |
100. | London West | Likely NDP |
101. | Sudbury | Likely NDP |
102. | Orléans | Likely OLP |