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Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: August 31, 2025

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 202240.8%
Current vote projection47.5% ± 4.4%
Current number of MPP80
Current seat projection90 [81-101]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 31, 2025 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 57% 58% 59% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PCPO 338Canada Ontario 2.9 seat/% 91 [81-101] 48% ± 4% 2018 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | August 31, 2025

38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 43.1% ▼ 2025 43.0% 47.5% ± 4.4% ▼ Max. 51.9% ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Seat projection | August 31, 2025

69 74 79 84 89 94 99 104 109 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2025 80 seats Min. 81 ▼ 90 ▼ Max. 101 ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Timmins Safe PCPO >99%
2. Vaughan—Woodbridge Safe PCPO >99%
3. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO >99%
4. Thornhill Safe PCPO >99%
5. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO >99%
6. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO >99%
7. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO >99%
8. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO >99%
9. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO >99%
10. Brampton North Safe PCPO >99%
11. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
12. Essex Safe PCPO >99%
13. Nipissing Safe PCPO >99%
14. Brampton West Safe PCPO >99%
15. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO >99%
16. Oxford Safe PCPO >99%
17. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO >99%
18. Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
19. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO >99%
20. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO >99%
21. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO >99%
22. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO >99%
23. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO >99%
24. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO >99%
25. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO >99%
26. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO >99%
27. Simcoe North Safe PCPO >99%
28. Durham Safe PCPO >99%
29. Niagara West Safe PCPO >99%
30. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO >99%
31. Windsor—Tecumseh Safe PCPO >99%
32. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO >99%
33. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO >99%
34. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO >99%
35. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Safe PCPO >99%
36. Kitchener South—Hespeler Safe PCPO >99%
37. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO >99%
38. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO >99%
39. Brampton East Safe PCPO >99%
40. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO >99%
41. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO >99%
42. Algoma—Manitoulin Safe PCPO >99%
43. Brampton South Safe PCPO >99%
44. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO >99%
45. Bay of Quinte Safe PCPO >99%
46. York Centre Safe PCPO >99%
47. Scarborough North Safe PCPO >99%
48. Brampton Centre Safe PCPO >99%
49. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Safe PCPO >99%
50. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Safe PCPO >99%
51. Kitchener—Conestoga Safe PCPO >99%
52. Carleton Likely PCPO >99%
53. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO >99%
54. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO >99%
55. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO >99%
56. Cambridge Likely PCPO >99%
57. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 99%
58. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO 99%
59. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 99%
60. Whitby Likely PCPO 99%
61. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO 99%
62. Sault Ste. Marie Likely PCPO 98%
63. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO 98%
64. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO 97%
65. Hamilton Mountain Likely PCPO 97%
66. Milton Likely PCPO 97%
67. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 97%
68. Mississauga Centre Likely PCPO 97%
69. Peterborough—Kawartha Likely PCPO 96%
70. Parry Sound—Muskoka Likely PCPO 96%
71. Mississauga—Streetsville Likely PCPO 95%
72. Oakville Likely PCPO 95%
73. Mississauga—Lakeshore Likely PCPO 94%
74. Mississauga East—Cooksville Likely PCPO 93%
75. Humber River—Black Creek Likely PCPO 91%
76. Scarborough Centre Leaning PCPO 88%
77. Oshawa Leaning PCPO 88%
78. Willowdale Leaning PCPO 88%
79. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Leaning PCPO 87%
80. Eglinton—Lawrence Leaning PCPO 86%
81. Burlington Leaning PCPO 86%
82. Niagara Centre Leaning PCPO 84%
83. Mississauga—Erin Mills Leaning PCPO 84%
84. York South—Weston Leaning PCPO 84%
85. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Leaning PCPO 82%
86. Ajax Leaning PCPO 81%
87. Timiskaming—Cochrane Leaning PCPO 76%
88. St. Catharines Leaning PCPO 73%
89. Sudbury Toss up PCPO/NDP 70%
90. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up PCPO/NDP 69%
91. Don Valley North Toss up OLP/PCPO 50%
92. Windsor West Toss up PCPO/NDP 50%
93. Kanata—Carleton Toss up OLP/PCPO 48%
94. Nickel Belt Toss up PCPO/NDP 43%
95. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 43%
96. London—Fanshawe Toss up PCPO/NDP 37%
97. Scarborough Southwest Toss up PCPO/NDP 37%
98. London West Toss up PCPO/NDP 33%
99. London North Centre Leaning NDP 30%
100. Nepean Leaning OLP 29%
101. Scarborough—Guildwood Leaning OLP 19%
102. Niagara Falls Likely NDP 10%
103. Ottawa West—Nepean Likely NDP 5%
104. Kiiwetinoong Likely NDP 3%
105. Orléans Likely OLP 3%
106. Toronto—St. Paul’s Likely OLP 2%
107. Waterloo Likely NDP 1%