Progressive Conservative Party

Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Progressive Conservative Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Current party	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
2.	Oxford		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
3.	Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
4.	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
5.	Haldimand—Norfolk		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
6.	Elgin—Middlesex—London		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
7.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
8.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
9.	Chatham-Kent—Leamington		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
10.	Wellington—Halton Hills		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
11.	Perth—Wellington		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
12.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
13.	Niagara West		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
14.	Sarnia—Lambton		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
15.	Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
16.	York—Simcoe		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
17.	Huron—Bruce		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
18.	Dufferin—Caledon		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
19.	Thornhill		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
20.	Simcoe—Grey		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
21.	Whitby		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
22.	Barrie—Innisfil		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
23.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
24.	Bay of Quinte		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
25.	Markham—Unionville		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
26.	Nipissing		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
27.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
28.	Etobicoke North		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
29.	Brantford—Brant		Safe PCPO hold	>99%
30.	Flamborough—Glanbrook		Likely PCPO hold	>99%
31.	Durham		Likely PCPO hold	>99%
32.	Simcoe North		Likely PCPO hold	>99%
33.	Kitchener South—Hespeler		Likely PCPO hold	>99%
34.	Kenora—Rainy River		Likely PCPO hold	>99%
35.	Kitchener—Conestoga		Likely PCPO hold	>99%
36.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill		Likely PCPO hold	99%
37.	Parry Sound—Muskoka		Likely PCPO hold	99%
38.	York Centre		Likely PCPO hold	99%
39.	Kanata—Carleton		Likely PCPO hold	99%
40.	King—Vaughan		Likely PCPO hold	99%
41.	Carleton		Likely PCPO hold	99%
42.	Scarborough North		Likely PCPO hold	98%
43.	Brampton Centre		Likely PCPO gain	98%
44.	Oshawa		Likely PCPO gain	98%
45.	Sault Ste. Marie		Likely PCPO hold	97%
46.	Brampton West		Likely PCPO hold	97%
47.	Brampton South		Likely PCPO hold	96%
48.	Nepean		Likely PCPO hold	95%
49.	Pickering—Uxbridge		Likely PCPO hold	92%
50.	Newmarket—Aurora		Leaning PCPO hold	89%
51.	Markham—Thornhill		Leaning PCPO hold	88%
52.	Essex		Leaning PCPO gain	87%
53.	Scarborough—Agincourt		Leaning PCPO hold	87%
54.	Brampton East		Leaning PCPO gain	84%
55.	Peterborough—Kawartha		Leaning PCPO hold	81%
56.	Mississauga—Malton		Leaning PCPO hold	80%
57.	Richmond Hill		Leaning PCPO hold	77%
58.	Cambridge		Leaning PCPO hold	77%
59.	Northumberland—Peterborough South		Leaning PCPO hold	76%
60.	Mississauga—Streetsville		Leaning PCPO hold	75%
61.	Niagara Centre		Leaning PCPO gain	75%
62.	Mississauga—Erin Mills		Leaning PCPO hold	74%
63.	Markham—Stouffville		Leaning PCPO hold	73%
64.	Brampton North		Leaning PCPO gain	72%
65.	Vaughan—Woodbridge		Leaning PCPO hold	72%
66.	Milton		Leaning PCPO hold	71%
67.	Mississauga Centre		Leaning PCPO hold	70%
68.	York South—Weston		Toss up OLP/PCPO	70%
69.	Oakville North—Burlington		Toss up OLP/PCPO	68%
70.	Burlington		Toss up OLP/PCPO	65%
71.	Niagara Falls		Toss up PCPO/NDP	64%
72.	Scarborough—Rouge Park		Toss up OLP/PCPO	63%
73.	Scarborough Centre		Toss up OLP/PCPO	62%
74.	Willowdale		Toss up OLP/PCPO	57%
75.	Mississauga East—Cooksville		Toss up OLP/PCPO	55%
76.	Ajax		Toss up OLP/PCPO	54%
77.	Don Valley North		Toss up OLP/PCPO	48%
78.	Etobicoke Centre		Toss up OLP/PCPO	47%
79.	London North Centre		Toss up PCPO/NDP	46%
80.	Oakville		Toss up OLP/PCPO	46%
81.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore		Toss up OLP/PCPO	45%
82.	Mississauga—Lakeshore		Toss up OLP/PCPO	45%
83.	Waterloo		Toss up PCPO/NDP	43%
84.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas		Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP	37%
85.	Ottawa West—Nepean		Toss up OLP/PCPO	34%
86.	St. Catharines		Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP	33%
87.	Kitchener Centre		Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP	31%
88.	Eglinton—Lawrence		Leaning OLP gain	28%
89.	Mushkegowuk—James Bay		Leaning NDP hold	25%
90.	Scarborough Southwest		Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP	23%
91.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek		Leaning NDP hold	22%
92.	Windsor West		Leaning NDP hold	21%
93.	Kiiwetinoong		Leaning NDP hold	20%
94.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell		Leaning OLP gain	18%
95.	Hamilton Mountain		Leaning NDP hold	16%
96.	London—Fanshawe		Leaning NDP hold	12%
97.	London West		Leaning NDP hold	12%
98.	Humber River—Black Creek		Leaning OLP gain	10%
99.	Timmins		Likely NDP hold	9%
100.	Don Valley West		Likely OLP hold	2%
101.	Scarborough—Guildwood		Likely OLP hold	2%
102.	Windsor—Tecumseh		Likely NDP hold	1%
103.	Kingston and the Islands		Leaning OLP gain	1%