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Last update: April 18, 2021
Leader | Doug Ford |
Popular vote in 2018 | 40.5% |
Current vote projection | 37.5% ± 5.3% |
Current number of MP's | 71 |
Current seat projection | 64 ± 20 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Progressive Conservative Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | PCO safe | >99% | |
2. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | PCO safe | >99% | |
3. | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | PCO safe | >99% | |
4. | Thornhill | PCO safe | >99% | |
5. | Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes | PCO safe | >99% | |
6. | Simcoe—Grey | ![]() |
PCO safe | >99% |
7. | York—Simcoe | PCO safe | >99% | |
8. | Haldimand—Norfolk | PCO safe | >99% | |
9. | Wellington—Halton Hills | PCO safe | >99% | |
10. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | PCO safe | >99% | |
11. | Dufferin—Caledon | PCO safe | >99% | |
12. | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | ![]() |
PCO safe | >99% |
13. | Huron—Bruce | PCO safe | >99% | |
14. | Barrie—Innisfil | PCO safe | >99% | |
15. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington | PCO safe | >99% | |
16. | Markham—Unionville | PCO safe | >99% | |
17. | Elgin—Middlesex—London | PCO safe | >99% | |
18. | Nipissing | PCO safe | >99% | |
19. | Bay of Quinte | PCO safe | >99% | |
20. | Niagara West | PCO safe | >99% | |
21. | Perth—Wellington | PCO safe | >99% | |
22. | Oxford | PCO safe | >99% | |
23. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | PCO safe | >99% | |
24. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | PCO safe | >99% | |
25. | Durham | PCO safe | >99% | |
26. | Etobicoke North | PCO likely | >99% | |
27. | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | PCO likely | >99% | |
28. | Whitby | PCO likely | >99% | |
29. | Kanata—Carleton | PCO likely | >99% | |
30. | Kenora—Rainy River | PCO likely | >99% | |
31. | Simcoe North | PCO likely | >99% | |
32. | Carleton | PCO likely | 99% | |
33. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | PCO likely | 99% | |
34. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | PCO likely | 99% | |
35. | Sault Ste. Marie | PCO likely | 99% | |
36. | Sarnia—Lambton | PCO likely | 98% | |
37. | Flamborough—Glanbrook | PCO likely | 98% | |
38. | King—Vaughan | PCO likely | 98% | |
39. | Nepean | PCO likely | 98% | |
40. | Kitchener—Conestoga | PCO likely | 96% | |
41. | York Centre | ![]() |
PCO likely | 96% |
42. | Scarborough North | PCO likely | 95% | |
43. | Brampton South | PCO likely | 94% | |
44. | Kitchener South—Hespeler | PCO likely | 92% | |
45. | Brampton West | PCO likely | 91% | |
46. | Pickering—Uxbridge | PCO leaning | 89% | |
47. | Markham—Thornhill | PCO leaning | 85% | |
48. | Newmarket—Aurora | PCO leaning | 85% | |
49. | Richmond Hill | PCO leaning | 82% | |
50. | Brampton Centre | PCO leaning | 81% | |
51. | Brantford—Brant | PCO leaning | 81% | |
52. | Mississauga—Malton | PCO leaning | 79% | |
53. | Scarborough—Rouge Park | PCO leaning | 76% | |
54. | Oakville North—Burlington | PCO leaning | 73% | |
55. | Markham—Stouffville | PCO leaning | 71% | |
56. | Willowdale | PCO leaning | 71% | |
57. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | Toss up | 70% | |
58. | Northumberland—Peterborough South | Toss up | 69% | |
59. | Scarborough—Agincourt | Toss up | 64% | |
60. | Scarborough Centre | Toss up | 63% | |
61. | Mississauga—Streetsville | Toss up | 59% | |
62. | Oshawa | Toss up | 55% | |
63. | Essex | Toss up | 54% | |
64. | Ajax | Toss up | 48% | |
65. | Burlington | Toss up | 46% | |
66. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | Toss up | 43% | |
67. | Niagara Centre | Toss up | 43% | |
68. | Cambridge | ![]() |
Toss up | 41% |
69. | Mississauga Centre | Toss up | 39% | |
70. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | Toss up | 39% | |
71. | Peterborough—Kawartha | Toss up | 33% | |
72. | Brampton North | Toss up | 26% | |
73. | Milton | OLP leaning | 26% | |
74. | Don Valley North | OLP leaning | 24% | |
75. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | Toss up | 23% | |
76. | Oakville | OLP leaning | 18% | |
77. | Scarborough Southwest | NDP leaning | 14% | |
78. | Mississauga East—Cooksville | OLP leaning | 14% | |
79. | Mushkegowuk—James Bay | NDP leaning | 13% | |
80. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | OLP leaning | 13% | |
81. | Kiiwetinoong | NDP leaning | 12% | |
82. | Niagara Falls | NDP leaning | 12% | |
83. | Etobicoke Centre | OLP leaning | 11% | |
84. | Brampton East | NDP likely | 9% | |
85. | St. Catharines | Toss up | 9% | |
86. | Kitchener Centre | Toss up | 8% | |
87. | London North Centre | NDP likely | 7% | |
88. | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | OLP likely | 6% | |
89. | Waterloo | NDP likely | 6% | |
90. | York South—Weston | OLP leaning | 4% | |
91. | Eglinton—Lawrence | OLP likely | 3% | |
92. | Windsor West | NDP likely | 2% | |
93. | Timmins | NDP likely | 2% | |
94. | Don Valley West | OLP likely | 2% | |
95. | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | NDP likely | 2% | |
96. | Humber River—Black Creek | OLP likely | 1% | |
97. | Ottawa West—Nepean | OLP likely | 1% | |
98. | Scarborough—Guildwood | OLP likely | <1% | |
99. | London West | NDP likely | <1% |