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Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: June 3, 2022

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 201840.5%
Current vote projection40.8% ± 0.4%
Current number of MPP83
Current seat projection83 [78-86]



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Timmins Safe PCPO >99%
2. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO >99%
3. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO >99%
4. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO >99%
5. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO >99%
6. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO >99%
7. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO >99%
8. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO >99%
9. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO >99%
10. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO >99%
11. Thornhill Safe PCPO >99%
12. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
13. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO >99%
14. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO >99%
15. Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
16. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO >99%
17. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO >99%
18. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO >99%
19. Essex Safe PCPO >99%
20. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO >99%
21. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO >99%
22. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO >99%
23. Nipissing Safe PCPO >99%
24. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO >99%
25. Oxford Safe PCPO >99%
26. Simcoe North Safe PCPO >99%
27. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO >99%
28. Bay of Quinte Safe PCPO >99%
29. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO >99%
30. Scarborough North Safe PCPO >99%
31. Whitby Safe PCPO >99%
32. Carleton Safe PCPO >99%
33. Brampton West Safe PCPO >99%
34. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO >99%
35. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO >99%
36. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO >99%
37. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO >99%
38. Durham Safe PCPO >99%
39. Scarborough—Rouge Park Safe PCPO >99%
40. Brampton South Safe PCPO >99%
41. Niagara West Safe PCPO >99%
42. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO >99%
43. Kanata—Carleton Safe PCPO >99%
44. Vaughan—Woodbridge Safe PCPO >99%
45. Cambridge Safe PCPO >99%
46. Brampton North Safe PCPO >99%
47. Windsor—Tecumseh Safe PCPO >99%
48. Pickering—Uxbridge Safe PCPO >99%
49. Brampton Centre Safe PCPO >99%
50. Mississauga—Malton Safe PCPO >99%
51. Etobicoke Centre Safe PCPO >99%
52. Burlington Safe PCPO >99%
53. Newmarket—Aurora Safe PCPO >99%
54. Kitchener South—Hespeler Safe PCPO >99%
55. Markham—Stouffville Safe PCPO >99%
56. Brampton East Safe PCPO >99%
57. York Centre Safe PCPO >99%
58. Oakville North—Burlington Safe PCPO >99%
59. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO >99%
60. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO >99%
61. Mississauga—Streetsville Likely PCPO >99%
62. Don Valley North Likely PCPO >99%
63. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO >99%
64. Peterborough—Kawartha Likely PCPO 99%
65. Mississauga—Lakeshore Likely PCPO 98%
66. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO 98%
67. Mississauga Centre Likely PCPO 97%
68. Sault Ste. Marie Likely PCPO 97%
69. Willowdale Likely PCPO 96%
70. Nepean Likely PCPO 94%
71. Scarborough Centre Likely PCPO 94%
72. Oakville Likely PCPO 93%
73. Mississauga—Erin Mills Leaning PCPO 90%
74. Ajax Leaning PCPO 90%
75. Milton Leaning PCPO 86%
76. Parry Sound—Muskoka Leaning PCPO 86%
77. Mississauga East—Cooksville Leaning PCPO 84%
78. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Leaning PCPO 81%
79. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Leaning PCPO 78%
80. York South—Weston Leaning PCPO 76%
81. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 67%
82. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 67%
83. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO 65%
84. Oshawa Toss up PCPO/NDP 31%
85. Niagara Centre Leaning NDP 30%
86. Ottawa West—Nepean Leaning NDP 29%
87. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning NDP 22%
88. Don Valley West Leaning OLP 11%
89. Haldimand—Norfolk IND leaning 11%
90. Humber River—Black Creek Leaning NDP 9%
91. St. Catharines Likely NDP 8%
92. Timiskaming—Cochrane Likely NDP 7%
93. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Likely NDP 7%
94. Windsor West Likely NDP 3%
95. Algoma—Manitoulin Likely NDP 2%
96. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Likely NDP 2%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Timmins Safe PCPO
2. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO
3. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO
4. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO
5. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO
6. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO
7. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO
8. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO
9. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO
10. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO
11. Thornhill Safe PCPO
12. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Safe PCPO
13. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO
14. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO
15. Richmond Hill Safe PCPO
16. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO
17. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO
18. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO
19. Essex Safe PCPO
20. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO
21. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO
22. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO
23. Nipissing Safe PCPO
24. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO
25. Oxford Safe PCPO
26. Simcoe North Safe PCPO
27. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO
28. Bay of Quinte Safe PCPO
29. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO
30. Scarborough North Safe PCPO
31. Whitby Safe PCPO
32. Carleton Safe PCPO
33. Brampton West Safe PCPO
34. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO
35. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO
36. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO
37. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO
38. Durham Safe PCPO
39. Scarborough—Rouge Park Safe PCPO
40. Brampton South Safe PCPO
41. Niagara West Safe PCPO
42. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO
43. Kanata—Carleton Safe PCPO
44. Vaughan—Woodbridge Safe PCPO
45. Cambridge Safe PCPO
46. Brampton North Safe PCPO
47. Windsor—Tecumseh Safe PCPO
48. Pickering—Uxbridge Safe PCPO
49. Brampton Centre Safe PCPO
50. Mississauga—Malton Safe PCPO
51. Etobicoke Centre Safe PCPO
52. Burlington Safe PCPO
53. Newmarket—Aurora Safe PCPO
54. Kitchener South—Hespeler Safe PCPO
55. Markham—Stouffville Safe PCPO
56. Brampton East Safe PCPO
57. York Centre Safe PCPO
58. Oakville North—Burlington Safe PCPO
59. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO
60. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO
61. Mississauga—Streetsville Likely PCPO
62. Don Valley North Likely PCPO
63. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO
64. Peterborough—Kawartha Likely PCPO
65. Mississauga—Lakeshore Likely PCPO
66. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO
67. Mississauga Centre Likely PCPO
68. Sault Ste. Marie Likely PCPO
69. Willowdale Likely PCPO
70. Nepean Likely PCPO
71. Scarborough Centre Likely PCPO
72. Oakville Likely PCPO
73. Mississauga—Erin Mills Leaning PCPO
74. Ajax Leaning PCPO
75. Milton Leaning PCPO
76. Parry Sound—Muskoka Leaning PCPO
77. Mississauga East—Cooksville Leaning PCPO
78. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Leaning PCPO
79. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Leaning PCPO
80. York South—Weston Leaning PCPO
81. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO
82. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO
83. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO
84. Oshawa Toss up PCPO/NDP
85. Niagara Centre Leaning NDP
86. Ottawa West—Nepean Leaning NDP
87. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning NDP
88. Don Valley West Leaning OLP
89. Haldimand—Norfolk IND leaning
90. Humber River—Black Creek Leaning NDP
91. St. Catharines Likely NDP
92. Timiskaming—Cochrane Likely NDP
93. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Likely NDP
94. Windsor West Likely NDP
95. Algoma—Manitoulin Likely NDP
96. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Likely NDP