logo
logo
Ontario

Progressive Conservative Party





Last update: December 15, 2024

LeaderDoug Ford
Popular vote in 202240.8%
Current vote projection42.4% ± 4.3%
Current number of MPP79
Current seat projection90 [75-104]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 52% 53% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PCPO 338Canada ©2023 3.2 seat/% 90 [75-104] 42% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | December 15, 2024

33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% 47% 48% 49% 50% 51% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 38.2% ▼ 42.4% ± 4.3% ▼ Max. 46.7% ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Seat projection | December 15, 2024

56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106 111 116 121 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 63 seats Min. 75 ▼ 2022 83 seats 90 ▼ Max. 104 ▼ Probabilities % PCPO

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Timmins Safe PCPO >99%
2. Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Safe PCPO >99%
3. Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Safe PCPO >99%
4. King—Vaughan Safe PCPO >99%
5. Kenora—Rainy River Safe PCPO >99%
6. York—Simcoe Safe PCPO >99%
7. Markham—Unionville Safe PCPO >99%
8. Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry Safe PCPO >99%
9. Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Safe PCPO >99%
10. Etobicoke North Safe PCPO >99%
11. Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
12. Sarnia—Lambton Safe PCPO >99%
13. Essex Safe PCPO >99%
14. Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Safe PCPO >99%
15. Huron—Bruce Safe PCPO >99%
16. Oxford Safe PCPO >99%
17. Elgin—Middlesex—London Safe PCPO >99%
18. Whitby Safe PCPO >99%
19. Northumberland—Peterborough South Safe PCPO >99%
20. Simcoe—Grey Safe PCPO >99%
21. Brampton West Safe PCPO >99%
22. Nipissing Safe PCPO >99%
23. Wellington—Halton Hills Safe PCPO >99%
24. Barrie—Innisfil Safe PCPO >99%
25. Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Safe PCPO >99%
26. Simcoe North Safe PCPO >99%
27. Dufferin—Caledon Safe PCPO >99%
28. Hastings—Lennox and Addington Safe PCPO >99%
29. Durham Safe PCPO >99%
30. Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Safe PCPO >99%
31. Perth—Wellington Safe PCPO >99%
32. Windsor—Tecumseh Safe PCPO >99%
33. Flamborough—Glanbrook Safe PCPO >99%
34. Niagara West Safe PCPO >99%
35. Brantford—Brant Safe PCPO >99%
36. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Safe PCPO >99%
37. Thornhill Safe PCPO >99%
38. Chatham-Kent—Leamington Safe PCPO >99%
39. Brampton South Safe PCPO >99%
40. Kitchener South—Hespeler Safe PCPO >99%
41. Pickering—Uxbridge Safe PCPO >99%
42. Brampton North Safe PCPO >99%
43. Brampton Centre Safe PCPO >99%
44. Carleton Safe PCPO >99%
45. Scarborough North Safe PCPO >99%
46. Vaughan—Woodbridge Safe PCPO >99%
47. Brampton East Safe PCPO >99%
48. Scarborough—Rouge Park Safe PCPO >99%
49. Kitchener—Conestoga Safe PCPO >99%
50. Burlington Likely PCPO >99%
51. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO >99%
52. Sault Ste. Marie Likely PCPO >99%
53. Cambridge Likely PCPO >99%
54. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO >99%
55. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO >99%
56. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO >99%
57. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO >99%
58. York Centre Likely PCPO 99%
59. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO 99%
60. Milton Likely PCPO 99%
61. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO 99%
62. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO 98%
63. Kanata—Carleton Likely PCPO 98%
64. Don Valley North Likely PCPO 98%
65. Mississauga—Streetsville Likely PCPO 98%
66. Oakville Likely PCPO 96%
67. Mississauga—Lakeshore Likely PCPO 94%
68. Mississauga Centre Likely PCPO 94%
69. York South—Weston Likely PCPO 94%
70. Willowdale Likely PCPO 93%
71. Bay of Quinte Likely PCPO 92%
72. Peterborough—Kawartha Likely PCPO 92%
73. Scarborough Centre Likely PCPO 91%
74. Ajax Likely PCPO 90%
75. Mississauga—Erin Mills Leaning PCPO 88%
76. Nepean Leaning PCPO 84%
77. Niagara Centre Leaning PCPO 83%
78. Mississauga East—Cooksville Leaning PCPO 82%
79. Parry Sound—Muskoka Leaning PCPO 81%
80. Eglinton—Lawrence Leaning PCPO 78%
81. Oshawa Leaning PCPO 77%
82. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Leaning PCPO 76%
83. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Leaning PCPO 76%
84. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO 74%
85. Timiskaming—Cochrane Leaning PCPO 71%
86. St. Catharines Toss up PCPO/NDP 65%
87. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO 64%
88. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up PCPO/NDP 62%
89. Windsor West Toss up PCPO/NDP 58%
90. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP 51%
91. Algoma—Manitoulin Toss up PCPO/NDP 50%
92. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up PCPO/NDP 47%
93. Don Valley West Toss up OLP/PCPO 42%
94. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 40%
95. London North Centre Toss up PCPO/NDP 34%
96. Sudbury Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 34%
97. Niagara Falls Toss up PCPO/NDP 33%
98. London West Toss up PCPO/NDP 30%
99. Scarborough—Guildwood Leaning OLP 27%
100. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning OLP 22%
101. London—Fanshawe Leaning NDP 16%
102. Haldimand—Norfolk IND leaning 15%
103. Hamilton Mountain Likely NDP 10%
104. Don Valley East Likely OLP 8%
105. Kiiwetinoong Likely NDP 8%
106. Nickel Belt Likely NDP 6%
107. Waterloo Likely NDP 6%
108. Orléans Likely OLP 2%