Progressive Conservative Party
Last update: April 4, 2024
Leader | Doug Ford |
Popular vote in 2022 | 40.8% |
Current vote projection | 38.6% ± 4.1% |
Current number of MPP | 79 |
Current seat projection | 73 [57-95] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | April 4, 2024
Seat projection | April 4, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Progressive Conservative Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
2. | Timmins | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
3. | Lambton—Kent—Middlesex | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
4. | Kenora—Rainy River | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
5. | Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
6. | Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
7. | York—Simcoe | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
8. | Etobicoke North | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
9. | Sarnia—Lambton | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
10. | Essex | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
11. | Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
12. | Huron—Bruce | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
13. | Oxford | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
14. | Elgin—Middlesex—London | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
15. | Simcoe—Grey | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
16. | Wellington—Halton Hills | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
17. | Barrie—Innisfil | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
18. | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
19. | Dufferin—Caledon | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
20. | Simcoe North | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
21. | Bay of Quinte | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
22. | Hastings—Lennox and Addington | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
23. | Perth—Wellington | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
24. | King—Vaughan | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
25. | Whitby | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
26. | Nipissing | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
27. | Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
28. | Brantford—Brant | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
29. | Niagara West | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
30. | Flamborough—Glanbrook | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
31. | Northumberland—Peterborough South | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
32. | Windsor—Tecumseh | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
33. | Chatham-Kent—Leamington | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
34. | Durham | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
35. | Brampton West | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
36. | Markham—Unionville | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
37. | Kitchener South—Hespeler | Safe PCPO | >99% | |
38. | Thornhill | Likely PCPO | >99% | |
39. | Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | Likely PCPO | >99% | |
40. | Carleton | Likely PCPO | >99% | |
41. | Brampton South | Likely PCPO | 99% | |
42. | Kitchener—Conestoga | Likely PCPO | 99% | |
43. | Richmond Hill | Likely PCPO | 99% | |
44. | Brampton Centre | Likely PCPO | 99% | |
45. | Sault Ste. Marie | Likely PCPO | 99% | |
46. | Brampton East | Likely PCPO | 99% | |
47. | Brampton North | Likely PCPO | 99% | |
48. | Pickering—Uxbridge | Likely PCPO | 99% | |
49. | Cambridge | Likely PCPO | 98% | |
50. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | Likely PCPO | 98% | |
51. | Scarborough—Rouge Park | Likely PCPO | 97% | |
52. | Scarborough North | Likely PCPO | 97% | |
53. | Burlington | Likely PCPO | 96% | |
54. | Newmarket—Aurora | Likely PCPO | 95% | |
55. | Markham—Stouffville | Likely PCPO | 92% | |
56. | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | Likely PCPO | 91% | |
57. | Mississauga—Malton | Likely PCPO | 91% | |
58. | Oakville North—Burlington | Likely PCPO | 90% | |
59. | Etobicoke Centre | Leaning PCPO | 89% | |
60. | York Centre | Leaning PCPO | 86% | |
61. | Markham—Thornhill | Leaning PCPO | 84% | |
62. | Kanata—Carleton | Leaning PCPO | 81% | |
63. | Scarborough—Agincourt | Leaning PCPO | 75% | |
64. | Don Valley North | Leaning PCPO | 72% | |
65. | Peterborough—Kawartha | Leaning PCPO | 70% | |
66. | Mississauga—Streetsville | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 69% | |
67. | York South—Weston | Toss up PCPO/NDP | 68% | |
68. | Oakville | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 63% | |
69. | Niagara Centre | Toss up PCPO/NDP | 61% | |
70. | Parry Sound—Muskoka | Toss up PCPO/GPO | 58% | |
71. | Nepean | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 57% | |
72. | Milton | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 53% | |
73. | Willowdale | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 51% | |
74. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 50% | |
75. | Mississauga Centre | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 50% | |
76. | Thunder Bay—Atikokan | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 49% | |
77. | Scarborough Centre | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 48% | |
78. | Ajax | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 47% | |
79. | Timiskaming—Cochrane | Toss up PCPO/NDP | 46% | |
80. | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 44% | |
81. | Oshawa | Toss up PCPO/NDP | 41% | |
82. | St. Catharines | Toss up PCPO/NDP | 39% | |
83. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 38% | |
84. | Ottawa West—Nepean | Toss up PCPO/NDP | 36% | |
85. | Mushkegowuk—James Bay | Toss up PCPO/NDP | 33% | |
86. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 32% | |
87. | Windsor West | Toss up PCPO/NDP | 31% | |
88. | Mississauga East—Cooksville | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 31% | |
89. | Algoma—Manitoulin | Leaning NDP | 29% | |
90. | Eglinton—Lawrence | Leaning OLP | 24% | |
91. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | Leaning NDP | 23% | |
92. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | Leaning OLP | 21% | |
93. | London North Centre | Leaning NDP | 13% | |
94. | Sudbury | Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP | 13% | |
95. | Niagara Falls | Leaning NDP | 12% | |
96. | London West | Leaning NDP | 11% | |
97. | Haldimand—Norfolk | IND likely | 9% | |
98. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | Likely OLP | 7% | |
99. | Humber River—Black Creek | Leaning OLP | 5% | |
100. | Don Valley West | Likely OLP | 5% | |
101. | London—Fanshawe | Likely NDP | 4% | |
102. | Kiiwetinoong | Likely NDP | 3% | |
103. | Hamilton Mountain | Likely NDP | 3% | |
104. | Scarborough—Guildwood | Likely OLP | 2% | |
105. | Nickel Belt | Likely NDP | 2% | |
106. | Waterloo | Likely NDP | 1% |