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Ontario

Dufferin—Caledon


MPP: Jones, Sylvia (PCPO)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Safe PCPO
Dufferin—Caledon 47% ± 9%▲ PCPO 21% ± 7%▼ OLP 16% ± 7% GPO 10% ± 4%▼ NDP 4% ± 3% NBPO PCPO 2022 49.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Dufferin—Caledon >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Dufferin—Caledon

OLP 21% ± 7% PCPO 47% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 4% GPO 16% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Dufferin—Caledon 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Dufferin—Caledon

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Dufferin—Caledon



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 39.9% 53.1% 49.7% 47% ± 9% OLP 30.7% 12.5% 18.8% 21% ± 7% GPO 16.6% 12.5% 14.1% 16% ± 7% NDP 11.7% 20.3% 10.8% 10% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%