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Ontario

Dufferin—Caledon


MPP: Jones, Sylvia (PCPO)

Latest projection: June 30, 2024
Safe PCPO
Dufferin—Caledon 48% ± 9%▲ PCPO 20% ± 6%▼ OLP 17% ± 7%▲ GPO 10% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 3% NBPO PCPO 2022 49.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 30, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Dufferin—Caledon >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO Odds of winning | June 30, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Dufferin—Caledon

OLP 20% ± 6% PCPO 48% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 4% GPO 17% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Dufferin—Caledon 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 30, 2024 2022-04-23 PCPO 49% OLP 20% NDP 13% GPO 13% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 PCPO 50% OLP 21% GPO 12% NDP 11% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 PCPO 50% OLP 21% GPO 12% NDP 11% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 48% OLP 21% NDP 13% GPO 12% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 48% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 12% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 48% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 12% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 48% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 12% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 48% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 12% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 48% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 12% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 48% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 12% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 47% OLP 22% NDP 14% GPO 12% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 48% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 12% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 49% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 12% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 49% OLP 21% NDP 13% GPO 12% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 48% OLP 21% NDP 13% GPO 12% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 49% OLP 20% NDP 14% GPO 11% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 48% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 11% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 46% OLP 24% NDP 13% GPO 12% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 46% OLP 24% NDP 13% GPO 12% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 44% OLP 23% GPO 15% NDP 12% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 43% OLP 22% GPO 15% NDP 14% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 43% OLP 22% GPO 15% NDP 14% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 43% OLP 22% GPO 15% NDP 14% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 43% OLP 22% GPO 15% NDP 14% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 43% OLP 22% GPO 15% NDP 14% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 43% OLP 22% GPO 15% NDP 14% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 43% OLP 22% GPO 15% NDP 14% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 44% OLP 21% GPO 15% NDP 14% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 45% OLP 21% GPO 15% NDP 13% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 45% OLP 21% GPO 15% NDP 13% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 45% OLP 21% GPO 15% NDP 13% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 46% OLP 21% GPO 15% NDP 13% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 50% OLP 19% GPO 13% NDP 12% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 50% OLP 19% GPO 14% NDP 11% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 49% OLP 19% GPO 14% NDP 11% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 48% OLP 19% GPO 16% NDP 10% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 48% OLP 20% GPO 16% NDP 10% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 48% OLP 20% GPO 15% NDP 10% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 48% OLP 19% GPO 16% NDP 10% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 43% OLP 19% GPO 19% NDP 12% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 44% OLP 20% GPO 18% NDP 12% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 45% OLP 20% GPO 17% NDP 11% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 45% OLP 20% GPO 17% NDP 11% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 43% OLP 21% GPO 17% NDP 12% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 45% OLP 19% GPO 17% NDP 12% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 48% OLP 19% GPO 17% NDP 11% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 47% OLP 20% GPO 16% NDP 11% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 47% OLP 21% GPO 16% NDP 11% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 44% OLP 24% GPO 16% NDP 11% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 46% OLP 23% GPO 16% NDP 10% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 46% OLP 22% GPO 16% NDP 11% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 47% OLP 21% GPO 16% NDP 10% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 48% OLP 20% GPO 17% NDP 10% 2024-06-30

Odds of winning | Dufferin—Caledon

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 30, 2024 2022-04-23 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30

Recent electoral history | Dufferin—Caledon



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 39.9% 53.1% 49.7% 48% ± 9% OLP 30.7% 12.5% 18.8% 20% ± 6% GPO 16.6% 12.5% 14.1% 17% ± 7% NDP 11.7% 20.3% 10.8% 10% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%