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Ontario

Dufferin—Caledon


MPP: Jones, Sylvia (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Dufferin—Caledon


PC Party of Ontario Sylvia Jones
Liberal Party Michael Dehn
Ontario NDP George Nakitsas
Green Party Sandy Brown
New Blue Party Kris Eggleton
Moderate Party Alexey Cherkashov
Independent Jeffrey Halsall

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Dufferin—Caledon 54% ± 9% PCPO 21% ± 7% OLP 14% ± 6% GPO 8% ± 4% NDP PCPO 2022 49.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Dufferin—Caledon >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Dufferin—Caledon

OLP 21% ± 7% PCPO 54% ± 9% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO 14% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Dufferin—Caledon 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 49% OLP 21% GPO 15% NDP 10% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 50% OLP 21% GPO 15% NDP 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 53% OLP 20% GPO 14% NDP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 53% OLP 20% GPO 14% NDP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 53% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 10% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 53% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 53% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 54% OLP 20% GPO 14% NDP 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 53% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 53% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 53% OLP 20% GPO 14% NDP 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 53% OLP 20% GPO 14% NDP 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 53% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 53% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 54% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 54% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 54% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 54% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 53% OLP 22% GPO 14% NDP 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 53% OLP 22% GPO 14% NDP 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 54% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 54% OLP 21% GPO 14% NDP 8% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Dufferin—Caledon

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Dufferin—Caledon



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 39.9% 53.1% 49.7% 54% ± 9% OLP 30.7% 12.5% 18.8% 21% ± 7% GPO 16.6% 12.5% 14.1% 14% ± 6% NDP 11.7% 20.3% 10.8% 8% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 2% ± 2%