logo
Ontario

Hamilton Centre


MPP: Jama, Sarah (IND)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely NDP

Candidates | Hamilton Centre


PC Party of Ontario Sarah Bokhari
Liberal Party Eileen Walker
Ontario NDP Robin Lennox
Green Party Lucia Iannantuono
New Blue Party Mitch Novosad
Independent Nathalie Xian Yi Yan
Independent Sarah Jama

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Hamilton Centre 34% ± 9% NDP 22% ± 7% PCPO 17% ± 6% OLP 16% ± 8% IND 9% ± 5% GPO NDP 2022 57.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Centre >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% INDOdds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hamilton Centre

OLP 17% ± 6% PCPO 22% ± 7% NDP 34% ± 9% GPO 9% ± 5% IND 16% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO IND February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 51% PCPO 19% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 51% PCPO 20% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 51% PCPO 22% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 51% PCPO 22% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 48% PCPO 21% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 46% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 47% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 46% PCPO 23% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 47% PCPO 23% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 47% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 48% PCPO 22% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 47% PCPO 22% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 46% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 46% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 35% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 35% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 35% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 35% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 35% PCPO 21% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 35% PCPO 21% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 34% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 34% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Hamilton Centre

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% IND <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP IND February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 54.6% 65.3% 57.3% 34% ± 9% PCPO 12.7% 15.7% 16.5% 22% ± 7% OLP 21.9% 10.9% 13.0% 17% ± 6% GPO 9.2% 5.8% 8.8% 9% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16% ± 8%