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Ontario


Hamilton Centre


MPP: Jama, Sarah (IND)


Latest projection: March 5, 2024

Safe NDP
Hamilton Centre 47% ± 10%▼ 25% ± 8% 16% ± 6%▲ 10% ± 5%▲ NDP 2022 57.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Hamilton Centre >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hamilton Centre

OLP 25% ± 8% PCPO 16% ± 6% NDP 47% ± 10% GPO 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Centre 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Hamilton Centre

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 54.6% 65.3% 57.3% 47% ± 10% PCPO 12.7% 15.7% 16.5% 16% ± 6% OLP 21.9% 10.9% 13.0% 25% ± 8% GPO 9.2% 5.8% 8.8% 10% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 1%