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Ontario

Hamilton Centre


MPP: Jama, Sarah (IND)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Safe NDP
Hamilton Centre 50% ± 10%▲ NDP 21% ± 7%▼ OLP 16% ± 6% PCPO 10% ± 5%▲ GPO NDP 2022 57.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Centre >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hamilton Centre

OLP 21% ± 7% PCPO 16% ± 6% NDP 50% ± 10% GPO 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Centre 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Hamilton Centre

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 54.6% 65.3% 57.3% 50% ± 10% PCPO 12.7% 15.7% 16.5% 16% ± 6% OLP 21.9% 10.9% 13.0% 21% ± 7% GPO 9.2% 5.8% 8.8% 10% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 1%