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Ontario

Hamilton Centre


MPP elect: Robin Lennox (NDP)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe NDP

Candidates | Hamilton Centre


PC Party of Ontario Sarah Bokhari
Liberal Party Eileen Walker
Ontario NDP Robin Lennox
Green Party Lucia Iannantuono
New Blue Party Mitch Novosad
Independent Nathalie Xian Yi Yan
Independent Sarah Jama

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Hamilton Centre 38% ± 0%▲ NDP 21% ± 0%▼ OLP 19% ± 0%▼ PCPO 15% ± 0%▲ IND 5% ± 0%▼ GPO NDP 2022 57.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Centre >99%▲ NDP <1%▼ OLP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Hamilton Centre

OLP 21% ± 0% PCPO 19% ± 0% NDP 38% ± 0% GPO 5% ± 0% IND 15% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO IND February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 51% PCPO 19% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 51% PCPO 20% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 51% PCPO 22% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 51% PCPO 22% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 48% PCPO 21% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 46% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 47% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 46% PCPO 23% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 47% PCPO 23% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 47% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 48% PCPO 22% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 47% PCPO 22% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 46% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 46% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 35% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 35% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 35% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 35% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 35% PCPO 21% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 35% PCPO 21% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 34% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 34% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 34% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 35% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 35% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 35% PCPO 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 33% OLP 24% PCPO 19% GPO 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 33% OLP 24% PCPO 20% GPO 10% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 33% OLP 24% PCPO 20% GPO 10% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 38% OLP 21% PCPO 19% GPO 5% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Hamilton Centre

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 95% OLP 5% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Hamilton Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 54.6% 65.3% 57.3% 38% ± 0% PCPO 12.7% 15.7% 16.5% 19% ± 0% OLP 21.9% 10.9% 13.0% 21% ± 0% GPO 9.2% 5.8% 8.8% 5% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 0% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15% ± 0%