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Recent electoral history | Hamilton Centre


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 41% ± 10% 65.3% 57.3% 38.4% OLP 20% ± 7% 10.9% 13.0% 21.3% PC 19% ± 7% 15.7% 16.5% 18.9% IND 14% ± 8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% GPO 5% ± 3% 5.8% 8.8% 4.9% NBPO 1% ± 2% 0.0% 1.7% 1.3%

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338Canada Hamilton Centre projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Hamilton Centre 31% 51% 41% ± 10% NDP 13% 27% 20% ± 7% OLP 12% 26% 19% ± 7% PC 6% 22% 14% ± 8% IND 1% 8% 5% ± 3% GPO NDP 2025 38.36% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Hamilton Centre >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% PC Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Hamilton Centre

OLP 20% ± 7% PC 19% ± 7% NDP 41% ± 10% GPO 5% ± 3% IND 14% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | Hamilton Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO IND February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 51% PC 19% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 51% PC 20% OLP 16% GPO 10% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 51% PC 22% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 51% PC 22% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 48% PC 21% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 46% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 47% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 46% PC 23% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 47% PC 23% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 47% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 48% PC 22% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 47% PC 22% OLP 16% GPO 9% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 46% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 46% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 10% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 35% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 35% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 35% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 35% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 35% PC 21% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 35% PC 21% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 34% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 34% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 34% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 35% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 35% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 35% PC 22% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 33% OLP 24% PC 19% GPO 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 33% OLP 24% PC 20% GPO 10% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 33% OLP 24% PC 20% GPO 10% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 38% OLP 21% PC 19% GPO 5% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 38% OLP 21% PC 19% GPO 5% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 38% OLP 22% PC 19% GPO 5% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 38% OLP 21% PC 20% GPO 5% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 34% PC 22% OLP 22% GPO 5% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 36% PC 22% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 38% PC 21% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 41% OLP 20% PC 19% GPO 5% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 41% OLP 20% PC 19% GPO 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 41% OLP 20% PC 19% GPO 5% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Hamilton Centre

OLP <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 97% OLP 3% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 95% OLP 5% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 99% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP >99% OLP <1% 2026-02-18