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Ontario

Huron—Bruce


MPP: Thompson, Lisa (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Huron—Bruce


PC Party of Ontario Lisa Thompson
Liberal Party Ian Burbidge
Ontario NDP Nick Mcgregor
Green Party Matthew Van Ankum
New Blue Party Zack Weiler
Alliance Bruce Eisen

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Huron—Bruce 57% ± 9% PCPO 23% ± 7% OLP 11% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 52.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Huron—Bruce >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Huron—Bruce

OLP 23% ± 7% PCPO 57% ± 9% NDP 11% ± 5% GPO 5% ± 3% NBPO 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Huron—Bruce 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO NBPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 52% OLP 23% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 52% OLP 23% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 56% OLP 22% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 56% OLP 22% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 55% OLP 22% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 56% OLP 23% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 56% OLP 23% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 57% OLP 22% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 56% OLP 22% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 56% OLP 22% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 56% OLP 22% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 56% OLP 22% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 57% OLP 23% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 57% OLP 23% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 57% OLP 23% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 56% OLP 24% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 56% OLP 24% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Huron—Bruce

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Huron—Bruce



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 39.0% 52.4% 52.0% 57% ± 9% OLP 30.9% 13.9% 18.7% 23% ± 7% NDP 22.8% 29.0% 16.4% 11% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 3% ± 2% GPO 3.5% 3.4% 4.1% 5% ± 3%