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Huron—Bruce

Latest update: February 18, 2026
PC
MPP: Lisa Thompson
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Recent electoral history | Huron—Bruce


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 52% ± 9% 52.4% 52.0% 50.0% OLP 27% ± 8% 13.9% 18.7% 28.0% NDP 11% ± 5% 29.0% 16.4% 11.8% GPO 5% ± 3% 3.4% 4.1% 5.6% NBPO 4% ± 3% 0.0% 7.2% 4.2%

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338Canada Huron—Bruce projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Huron—Bruce 43% 61% 52% ± 9% PC 19% 35% 27% ± 8% OLP 7% 16% 11% ± 5% NDP 2% 9% 5% ± 3% GPO 1% 7% 4% ± 3% NBPO PC 2025 50.01% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Huron—Bruce >99% PC <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Huron—Bruce

OLP 27% ± 8% PC 52% ± 9% NDP 11% ± 5% GPO 5% ± 3% NBPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Huron—Bruce 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO NBPO February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 52% OLP 23% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 52% OLP 23% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 56% OLP 22% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 56% OLP 22% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 55% OLP 22% NDP 14% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 56% OLP 23% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 56% OLP 23% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 57% OLP 22% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 56% OLP 22% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 56% OLP 22% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 56% OLP 22% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 56% OLP 22% NDP 13% GPO 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 56% OLP 24% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 56% OLP 24% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 57% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 58% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 58% OLP 23% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 50% OLP 28% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 50% OLP 28% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 50% OLP 28% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 51% OLP 28% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 55% OLP 26% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 55% OLP 27% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 54% OLP 26% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 52% OLP 27% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 52% OLP 27% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 52% OLP 27% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Huron—Bruce

OLP <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2026-02-18