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Recent electoral history | Barrie—Innisfil


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 48% ± 9% 50.0% 50.2% 53.5% OLP 32% ± 9% 12.5% 18.1% 25.7% NDP 13% ± 5% 28.6% 19.1% 13.5% GPO 4% ± 3% 7.2% 6.3% 4.5% NBPO 2% ± 2% 0.0% 3.4% 2.4%

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338Canada Barrie—Innisfil projection

Latest update: April 29, 2026

Barrie—Innisfil 38% 57% 48% ± 9% PC 23% 41% 32% ± 9% OLP 8% 19% 13% ± 5% NDP 1% 7% 4% ± 3% GPO PC 2025 53.47% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 29, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Barrie—Innisfil 99%▼ PC 1%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | April 29, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Barrie—Innisfil

Odds of winning | Barrie—Innisfil