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Ontario

Barrie—Innisfil


MPP: Khanjin, Andrea (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Barrie—Innisfil


PC Party of Ontario Andrea Khanjin
Liberal Party Dane Lee
Ontario NDP Andrew Harrigan
Green Party Stephen Ciesielski
New Blue Party Sam Mangiapane
Moderate Party Anna Yuryeva

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Barrie—Innisfil 55% ± 9% PCPO 21% ± 7% OLP 14% ± 6% NDP 7% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 50.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Barrie—Innisfil >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Barrie—Innisfil

OLP 21% ± 7% PCPO 55% ± 9% NDP 14% ± 6% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Barrie—Innisfil 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 50% OLP 20% NDP 18% GPO 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 50% OLP 20% NDP 18% GPO 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 53% OLP 19% NDP 17% GPO 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 53% OLP 19% NDP 17% GPO 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 53% OLP 20% NDP 17% GPO 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 53% OLP 20% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 53% OLP 20% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 16% GPO 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 54% OLP 21% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 55% OLP 21% NDP 15% GPO 7% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 55% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 56% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 7% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 56% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 54% OLP 22% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 54% OLP 22% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 55% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 7% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 55% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 7% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Barrie—Innisfil

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Barrie—Innisfil



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 38.9% 50.0% 50.2% 55% ± 9% NDP 17.0% 28.6% 19.1% 14% ± 6% OLP 37.5% 12.5% 18.1% 21% ± 7% GPO 5.8% 7.2% 6.3% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 1% ± 2%