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Ontario


Barrie—Innisfil


MPP: Khanjin, Andrea (PCPO)


Latest projection: March 5, 2024

Safe PCPO
Barrie—Innisfil 46% ± 9%▲ 22% ± 7%▼ 18% ± 6%▼ 9% ± 5%▲ 3% ± 2% PCPO 2022 50.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Barrie—Innisfil >99% <1% <1% Odds of winning | March 5, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Barrie—Innisfil

OLP 22% ± 7% PCPO 46% ± 9% NDP 18% ± 6% GPO 9% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Barrie—Innisfil 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Barrie—Innisfil

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Barrie—Innisfil



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 38.9% 50.0% 50.2% 46% ± 9% NDP 17.0% 28.6% 19.1% 18% ± 6% OLP 37.5% 12.5% 18.1% 22% ± 7% GPO 5.8% 7.2% 6.3% 9% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 3% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 2% ± 2%