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Ontario

Sudbury


MPP: West, Jamie (NDP)

Latest projection: June 30, 2024
Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP
Sudbury 31% ± 9% NDP 29% ± 8%▲ PCPO 28% ± 8%▼ OLP 7% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 40.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 30, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sudbury 57%▲ NDP 23%▲ PCPO 20%▼ OLP Odds of winning | June 30, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sudbury

OLP 28% ± 8% PCPO 29% ± 8% NDP 31% ± 9% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Sudbury 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 30, 2024 2022-04-23 OLP 35% NDP 32% PCPO 22% GPO 5% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 OLP 35% NDP 30% PCPO 24% GPO 5% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 OLP 35% NDP 30% PCPO 24% GPO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 34% NDP 32% PCPO 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 34% NDP 32% PCPO 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 34% NDP 32% PCPO 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 34% NDP 33% PCPO 22% GPO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 33% NDP 33% PCPO 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 34% NDP 33% PCPO 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 34% NDP 32% PCPO 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 34% NDP 32% PCPO 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 33% NDP 33% PCPO 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 33% NDP 32% PCPO 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 33% NDP 32% PCPO 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 33% NDP 32% PCPO 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 33% OLP 32% PCPO 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 33% NDP 33% PCPO 23% GPO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 32% OLP 32% PCPO 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 35% OLP 29% PCPO 24% GPO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 35% OLP 28% PCPO 24% GPO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 35% OLP 28% PCPO 23% GPO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 35% OLP 27% PCPO 23% GPO 8% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 35% OLP 27% PCPO 23% GPO 8% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 35% OLP 27% PCPO 24% GPO 8% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 35% OLP 27% PCPO 24% GPO 8% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 34% OLP 27% PCPO 23% GPO 8% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 34% OLP 27% PCPO 23% GPO 8% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 34% OLP 27% PCPO 24% GPO 8% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 33% OLP 27% PCPO 24% GPO 8% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 33% OLP 27% PCPO 24% GPO 8% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 33% OLP 27% PCPO 24% GPO 8% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 33% OLP 27% PCPO 25% GPO 8% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 37% OLP 27% PCPO 24% GPO 5% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 41% PCPO 29% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 41% PCPO 29% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 39% PCPO 29% OLP 20% GPO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 38% PCPO 29% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 38% PCPO 29% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 39% PCPO 29% OLP 20% GPO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 41% PCPO 25% OLP 20% GPO 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 41% PCPO 26% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 41% PCPO 26% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 40% PCPO 27% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 42% PCPO 25% OLP 21% GPO 7% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 41% PCPO 26% OLP 20% GPO 7% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 41% PCPO 28% OLP 19% GPO 7% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 40% PCPO 28% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 40% PCPO 28% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 32% NDP 32% PCPO 24% GPO 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 31% NDP 30% PCPO 27% GPO 7% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 31% OLP 30% PCPO 27% GPO 7% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 31% OLP 29% PCPO 28% GPO 7% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 31% PCPO 29% OLP 28% GPO 7% 2024-06-30

Odds of winning | Sudbury

OLP 20% PCPO 23% NDP 57% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 30, 2024 2022-04-23 OLP 65% NDP 35% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 OLP 81% NDP 19% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 OLP 82% NDP 17% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 66% NDP 34% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 61% NDP 39% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 61% NDP 39% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 61% NDP 38% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 52% NDP 48% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 53% NDP 46% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 61% NDP 39% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 63% NDP 36% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 54% NDP 45% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 56% NDP 43% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 57% NDP 42% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 57% NDP 42% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 53% OLP 46% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 51% NDP 49% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 51% OLP 48% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 86% OLP 14% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 86% OLP 13% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 90% OLP 10% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 92% OLP 7% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 93% OLP 7% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 91% OLP 8% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 91% OLP 8% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 90% OLP 9% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 91% OLP 8% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 91% OLP 8% PCPO 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 NDP 87% OLP 10% PCPO 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 NDP 87% OLP 10% PCPO 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 NDP 87% OLP 10% PCPO 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 NDP 86% OLP 11% PCPO 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 97% OLP 2% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 94% PCPO 6% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 94% PCPO 6% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 95% PCPO 5% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 96% PCPO 4% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 99% PCPO 1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 55% NDP 43% PCPO 2% GPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 52% NDP 37% PCPO 11% GPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 54% OLP 33% PCPO 13% GPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 52% OLP 31% PCPO 17% GPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 57% PCPO 23% OLP 20% GPO <1% 2024-06-30

Recent electoral history | Sudbury



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 42.2% 48.1% 40.8% 31% ± 9% PCPO 13.8% 23.2% 29.0% 29% ± 8% OLP 39.3% 22.4% 19.5% 28% ± 8% GPO 3.6% 4.2% 5.0% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1% ± 1%