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Ontario

St. Catharines


MPP: Stevens, Jennie (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Leaning PCPO

Candidates | St. Catharines


PC Party of Ontario Sal Sorrento
Liberal Party Robin Mcpherson
Ontario NDP Jennie Stevens
Green Party Stephen Vincelette-Smith
New Blue Party Rob Atalick
Ontario Party Liz Leeuwenburg
Alliance J. Justin O'Donnell
Stop the New Sex-Ed Agenda Natalia Benoit

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

St. Catharines 38% ± 9% PCPO 33% ± 8% NDP 22% ± 7% OLP 5% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 39.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. Catharines 84% PCPO 16% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | St. Catharines

OLP 22% ± 7% PCPO 38% ± 9% NDP 33% ± 8% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | St. Catharines 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 38% NDP 33% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 40% NDP 33% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 39% NDP 34% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 40% NDP 33% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 40% NDP 33% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 40% NDP 32% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 40% NDP 32% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 39% NDP 33% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 39% NDP 34% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 39% NDP 33% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 40% NDP 32% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 40% NDP 32% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 40% NDP 32% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 39% NDP 32% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 38% NDP 32% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 38% NDP 32% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 22% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 37% NDP 33% OLP 22% GPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 38% NDP 33% OLP 22% GPO 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 38% NDP 33% OLP 22% GPO 5% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | St. Catharines

OLP <1% PCPO 84% NDP 16% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 77% NDP 23% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 78% NDP 22% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 88% NDP 12% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 85% NDP 15% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 82% NDP 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 89% NDP 11% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 90% NDP 10% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 86% NDP 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 83% NDP 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 86% NDP 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 90% NDP 10% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 93% NDP 7% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 93% NDP 7% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 91% NDP 9% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 87% NDP 13% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 87% NDP 13% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 79% NDP 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 79% NDP 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 84% NDP 16% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 84% NDP 16% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | St. Catharines



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 24.6% 36.6% 39.7% 33% ± 8% PCPO 29.3% 33.6% 34.4% 38% ± 9% OLP 41.2% 24.5% 16.6% 22% ± 7% GPO 3.8% 3.7% 4.1% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1% ± 1%