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Ontario

St. Catharines


MPP: Stevens, Jennie (NDP)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Toss up PCPO/NDP
St. Catharines 35% ± 8% PCPO 33% ± 8% NDP 21% ± 7%▼ OLP 6% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 39.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. Catharines 66%▲ PCPO 34%▼ NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | St. Catharines

OLP 21% ± 7% PCPO 35% ± 8% NDP 33% ± 8% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | St. Catharines 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 33% PCPO 31% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 33% PCPO 31% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 33% PCPO 31% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 33% PCPO 31% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 34% PCPO 31% NDP 26% GPO 4% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 34% PCPO 31% NDP 27% GPO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 34% PCPO 31% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 35% PCPO 31% NDP 26% GPO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 34% PCPO 31% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 32% PCPO 32% NDP 27% GPO 4% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 32% OLP 30% PCPO 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 32% OLP 30% PCPO 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 32% OLP 30% PCPO 29% GPO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 32% PCPO 29% OLP 29% GPO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 32% OLP 30% PCPO 28% GPO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 31% PCPO 30% OLP 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 31% PCPO 30% OLP 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 31% PCPO 30% OLP 28% GPO 5% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 31% PCPO 29% OLP 28% GPO 5% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 31% PCPO 29% OLP 28% GPO 5% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 32% PCPO 29% OLP 28% GPO 5% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 31% PCPO 30% OLP 28% GPO 5% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 31% PCPO 30% OLP 28% GPO 5% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 32% PCPO 29% OLP 27% GPO 5% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 32% PCPO 29% OLP 27% GPO 5% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 31% NDP 31% OLP 26% GPO 5% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 32% NDP 30% OLP 26% GPO 5% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 32% NDP 30% OLP 26% GPO 5% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 32% NDP 30% OLP 26% GPO 5% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 31% NDP 31% OLP 26% GPO 5% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 33% NDP 31% OLP 25% GPO 5% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 17% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 37% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 18% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 41% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 41% PCPO 31% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 40% PCPO 32% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 40% PCPO 32% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 41% PCPO 30% OLP 18% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 40% PCPO 32% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 39% PCPO 33% OLP 18% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 39% PCPO 33% OLP 18% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 34% PCPO 31% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 33% PCPO 33% OLP 24% GPO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 23% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 34% PCPO 33% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 34% NDP 34% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 36% NDP 32% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 35% NDP 33% OLP 22% GPO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 35% NDP 33% OLP 21% GPO 6% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | St. Catharines

OLP <1% PCPO 66% NDP 34% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 57% PCPO 37% NDP 6% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 61% PCPO 31% NDP 7% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 63% PCPO 33% NDP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 64% PCPO 33% NDP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 65% PCPO 31% NDP 3% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 67% PCPO 29% NDP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 70% PCPO 26% NDP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 75% PCPO 23% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 67% PCPO 30% NDP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 50% PCPO 45% NDP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 59% OLP 24% PCPO 16% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 57% OLP 25% PCPO 18% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 57% OLP 24% PCPO 19% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 58% PCPO 22% OLP 20% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 60% OLP 25% PCPO 15% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 NDP 47% PCPO 32% OLP 21% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 NDP 48% PCPO 33% OLP 18% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 NDP 49% PCPO 34% OLP 17% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 57% PCPO 29% OLP 14% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 57% PCPO 29% OLP 14% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 59% PCPO 26% OLP 15% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 53% PCPO 33% OLP 14% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 52% PCPO 33% OLP 15% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 62% PCPO 29% OLP 9% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 62% PCPO 29% OLP 9% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 49% NDP 45% OLP 7% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 62% NDP 32% OLP 6% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 62% NDP 32% OLP 6% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 61% NDP 32% OLP 6% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 48% NDP 48% OLP 4% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 65% NDP 34% OLP 1% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 85% PCPO 15% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 69% PCPO 31% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 70% PCPO 30% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 70% PCPO 30% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 76% PCPO 24% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 96% PCPO 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 96% PCPO 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 93% PCPO 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 91% PCPO 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 98% PCPO 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 94% PCPO 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 84% PCPO 16% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 86% PCPO 14% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 84% PCPO 16% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 73% PCPO 27% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 54% PCPO 45% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 61% PCPO 39% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 54% PCPO 46% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 51% NDP 49% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 75% NDP 25% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 61% NDP 39% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | St. Catharines



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 24.6% 36.6% 39.7% 33% ± 8% PCPO 29.3% 33.6% 34.4% 35% ± 8% OLP 41.2% 24.5% 16.6% 21% ± 7% GPO 3.8% 3.7% 4.1% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1% ± 1%