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Recent electoral history | St. Catharines


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 44% ± 10% 36.6% 39.7% 42.0% PC 35% ± 9% 33.6% 34.4% 35.0% OLP 16% ± 6% 24.5% 16.6% 17.3% GPO 2% ± 2% 3.7% 4.1% 2.5% NBPO 2% ± 2% 0.0% 2.6% 1.7% ONP 1% ± 1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.6%

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338Canada St. Catharines projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

St. Catharines 34% 54% 44% ± 10% NDP 26% 43% 35% ± 9% PC 10% 22% 16% ± 6% OLP NDP 2025 41.98% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. Catharines 94%▲ NDP 6%▼ PC <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | St. Catharines

OLP 16% ± 6% PC 35% ± 9% NDP 44% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | St. Catharines 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 37% NDP 33% OLP 20% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 38% NDP 33% OLP 20% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 40% NDP 33% OLP 20% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 40% NDP 34% OLP 19% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 39% NDP 34% OLP 20% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 40% NDP 33% OLP 20% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 40% NDP 33% OLP 20% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 40% NDP 32% OLP 20% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 40% NDP 32% OLP 20% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 39% NDP 33% OLP 20% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 39% NDP 34% OLP 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 39% NDP 33% OLP 20% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 40% NDP 32% OLP 21% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 40% NDP 32% OLP 21% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 40% NDP 32% OLP 21% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 39% NDP 32% OLP 21% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 38% NDP 32% OLP 21% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 38% NDP 32% OLP 21% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 37% NDP 33% OLP 22% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 37% NDP 33% OLP 22% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 38% NDP 33% OLP 22% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 38% NDP 33% OLP 22% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 37% NDP 33% OLP 22% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 37% NDP 33% OLP 22% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 37% NDP 34% OLP 22% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 37% NDP 34% OLP 22% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 37% NDP 34% OLP 22% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 38% NDP 33% OLP 22% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 37% NDP 34% OLP 22% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 42% PC 35% OLP 17% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 42% PC 35% OLP 17% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 41% PC 35% OLP 17% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 41% PC 36% OLP 17% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 40% NDP 37% OLP 17% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 39% NDP 38% OLP 17% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 41% PC 37% OLP 16% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 44% PC 35% OLP 16% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 44% PC 35% OLP 16% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 44% PC 35% OLP 16% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | St. Catharines

OLP <1% PC 6% NDP 94% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 77% NDP 23% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 78% NDP 22% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 88% NDP 12% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 85% NDP 15% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 82% NDP 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 89% NDP 11% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 90% NDP 10% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 92% NDP 8% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 86% NDP 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 83% NDP 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 86% NDP 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 90% NDP 10% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 93% NDP 7% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 93% NDP 7% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 91% NDP 9% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 87% NDP 13% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 87% NDP 13% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 79% NDP 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 79% NDP 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 84% NDP 16% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 84% NDP 16% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 75% NDP 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 75% NDP 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 74% NDP 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 74% NDP 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 74% NDP 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 82% NDP 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 70% NDP 29% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 97% PC 3% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 85% PC 15% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 84% PC 16% OLP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 78% PC 22% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 73% NDP 27% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 56% NDP 44% OLP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 73% PC 27% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 92% PC 8% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 93% PC 7% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 94% PC 6% OLP <1% 2026-02-18