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Ontario

Simcoe North


MPP: Dunlop, Jill (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Simcoe North


PC Party of Ontario Jill Dunlop
Liberal Party Walter Alvarez-Bardales
Ontario NDP Jordi Malcolm
Green Party Chris Carr
New Blue Party Dave Brunelle
Libertarian Party William Joslin

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Simcoe North 55% ± 9% PCPO 20% ± 7% OLP 13% ± 5% NDP 10% ± 5% GPO PCPO 2022 49.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Simcoe North >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Simcoe North

OLP 20% ± 7% PCPO 55% ± 9% NDP 13% ± 5% GPO 10% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Simcoe North 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 49% OLP 19% NDP 17% GPO 11% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 50% OLP 19% NDP 16% GPO 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 53% OLP 18% NDP 16% GPO 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 53% OLP 18% NDP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 52% OLP 19% NDP 16% GPO 10% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 53% OLP 19% NDP 15% GPO 10% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 53% OLP 19% NDP 15% GPO 10% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 54% OLP 19% NDP 14% GPO 10% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 54% OLP 19% NDP 15% GPO 10% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 53% OLP 19% NDP 15% GPO 10% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 53% OLP 19% NDP 15% GPO 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 53% OLP 19% NDP 15% GPO 10% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 54% OLP 19% NDP 14% GPO 10% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 13% GPO 10% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 14% GPO 10% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 13% GPO 10% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 55% OLP 20% NDP 13% GPO 10% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 55% OLP 20% NDP 13% GPO 10% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 54% OLP 21% NDP 13% GPO 10% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 54% OLP 20% NDP 13% GPO 10% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 55% OLP 20% NDP 13% GPO 10% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 55% OLP 20% NDP 13% GPO 10% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Simcoe North

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Simcoe North



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 43.7% 47.0% 49.8% 55% ± 9% NDP 16.1% 28.1% 17.7% 13% ± 5% OLP 32.2% 17.7% 17.4% 20% ± 7% GPO 8.0% 6.7% 8.8% 10% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 1% ± 2%