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Ontario

Oakville


MPP: Crawford, Stephen (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Leaning PCPO

Candidates | Oakville


PC Party of Ontario Stephen Crawford
Liberal Party Alison Gohel
Ontario NDP Diane Downey
Green Party Bruno Sousa
New Blue Party Shereen Di Vittorio
Moderate Party Sandor Kornay

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Oakville 45% ± 9% PCPO 40% ± 9% OLP 5% ± 3% GPO 5% ± 3% NDP PCPO 2022 43.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oakville 79%▲ PCPO 21%▼ OLP <1% GPO Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Oakville

OLP 40% ± 9% PCPO 45% ± 9% NDP 5% ± 3% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Oakville 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 42% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 43% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 46% OLP 37% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 47% OLP 38% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 47% OLP 38% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 6% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 45% OLP 40% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 45% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 45% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 45% OLP 40% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 45% OLP 40% GPO 6% NDP 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 45% OLP 40% GPO 6% NDP 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 45% OLP 40% GPO 6% NDP 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 45% OLP 40% GPO 6% NDP 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 45% OLP 40% GPO 6% NDP 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 44% OLP 41% GPO 6% NDP 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 44% OLP 41% GPO 6% NDP 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 45% OLP 40% GPO 5% NDP 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 45% OLP 40% GPO 5% NDP 5% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Oakville

OLP 21% PCPO 79% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 75% OLP 25% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 85% OLP 15% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 78% OLP 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 69% OLP 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 69% OLP 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Oakville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 37.8% 43.7% 43.0% 45% ± 9% OLP 49.4% 35.8% 37.5% 40% ± 9% NDP 8.0% 16.5% 6.9% 5% ± 3% GPO 3.8% 3.5% 5.2% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1%