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Ontario

Oakville


MPP: Crawford, Stephen (PCPO)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Likely PCPO
Oakville 46% ± 9%▲ PCPO 35% ± 9%▼ OLP 7% ± 3% NDP 6% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 43.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oakville 96%▲ PCPO 4%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Oakville

OLP 35% ± 9% PCPO 46% ± 9% NDP 7% ± 3% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Oakville 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 44% PCPO 41% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 43% PCPO 39% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 42% PCPO 40% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 41% PCPO 41% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 42% PCPO 40% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 42% PCPO 40% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 43% PCPO 40% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 43% PCPO 40% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 41% PCPO 41% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 11% GPO 2% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 41% PCPO 40% NDP 11% GPO 2% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 41% PCPO 40% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 41% PCPO 40% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 41% PCPO 40% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 12% GPO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 12% GPO 4% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 12% GPO 4% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 40% OLP 39% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 39% PCPO 39% NDP 12% GPO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 40% OLP 39% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 40% OLP 39% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 43% OLP 37% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 43% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 42% OLP 38% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 42% OLP 39% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 42% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 38% PCPO 38% GPO 8% NDP 8% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 39% PCPO 39% NDP 8% GPO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 7% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 7% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 40% PCPO 37% NDP 8% GPO 7% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 8% GPO 7% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 42% OLP 37% NDP 7% GPO 7% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 40% OLP 39% NDP 7% GPO 7% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 41% OLP 38% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 43% OLP 37% NDP 7% GPO 7% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 44% OLP 36% GPO 7% NDP 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 43% OLP 37% GPO 7% NDP 7% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 43% OLP 37% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 46% OLP 35% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Oakville

OLP 4% PCPO 96% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 65% PCPO 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 70% PCPO 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 58% PCPO 42% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 57% PCPO 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 63% PCPO 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 67% PCPO 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 72% PCPO 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 55% PCPO 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 55% PCPO 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 52% PCPO 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 58% PCPO 42% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 57% PCPO 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 54% PCPO 46% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 56% OLP 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 55% PCPO 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 78% OLP 22% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 66% OLP 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 57% OLP 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 69% PCPO 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 59% OLP 41% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 81% OLP 19% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 59% OLP 41% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 74% PCPO 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 63% OLP 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 84% OLP 16% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 91% OLP 9% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 84% OLP 16% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 87% OLP 13% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Oakville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 37.8% 43.7% 43.0% 46% ± 9% OLP 49.4% 35.8% 37.5% 35% ± 9% NDP 8.0% 16.5% 6.9% 7% ± 3% GPO 3.8% 3.5% 5.2% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1%