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Ontario


Oakville


MPP: Crawford, Stephen (PCPO)


Latest projection: February 20, 2024

Leaning OLP
Oakville 42% ± 9%▲ 38% ± 9%▼ 7% ± 3% 6% ± 4% PCPO 2022 43.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Oakville 74%▲ 26%▼ <1% Odds of winning | February 20, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Oakville

OLP 42% ± 9% PCPO 38% ± 9% NDP 7% ± 3% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Oakville 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Oakville

OLP 74% PCPO 26% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Oakville



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 37.8% 43.7% 43.0% 38% ± 9% OLP 49.4% 35.8% 37.5% 42% ± 9% NDP 8.0% 16.5% 6.9% 7% ± 3% GPO 3.8% 3.5% 5.2% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1%