logo
Ontario

Markham—Thornhill


MPP : Logan Kanapathi (PCPO)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Likely PCPO

Recent electoral history | Markham—Thornhill


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 34.9% 50.5% 48.8% 54% ± 11% OLP 51.4% 24.4% 37.5% 40% ± 11% NDP 10.2% 21.3% 9.0% 4% ± 3% GPO 2.3% 2.3% 2.6% 2% ± 2%

Markham—Thornhill 54% ± 11% PCPO 40% ± 11%▲ OLP 4% ± 3% NDP PCPO 2022 48.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Thornhill 97% PCPO 3% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Markham—Thornhill

OLP 40% ± 11% PCPO 54% ± 11% NDP 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Thornhill 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 51% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 50% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 50% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 50% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 51% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 51% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 48% OLP 40% NDP 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 49% OLP 40% NDP 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 48% OLP 40% NDP 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 48% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 49% OLP 42% NDP 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 48% OLP 42% NDP 7% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 48% OLP 42% NDP 7% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 50% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 50% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 54% OLP 40% NDP 4% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 54% OLP 39% NDP 4% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO 54% OLP 40% NDP 4% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Markham—Thornhill

OLP 3% PCPO 97% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 90% OLP 10% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 87% OLP 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 87% OLP 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 87% OLP 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 90% OLP 10% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-06-27