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Ontario

Markham—Thornhill


MPP: Kanapathi, Logan (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Leaning PCPO

Candidates | Markham—Thornhill


PC Party of Ontario Logan Kanapathi
Liberal Party Nirmala Armstrong
Ontario NDP Paul Sahbaz
Green Party Shane O'Brien

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Markham—Thornhill 49% ± 10% PCPO 41% ± 10% OLP 7% ± 4% NDP PCPO 2022 48.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Markham—Thornhill 87%▲ PCPO 13%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Markham—Thornhill

OLP 41% ± 10% PCPO 49% ± 10% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Markham—Thornhill 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 48% OLP 39% NDP 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 50% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 51% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 50% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 50% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 50% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 51% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 51% OLP 38% NDP 8% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 48% OLP 40% NDP 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 49% OLP 40% NDP 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 48% OLP 40% NDP 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 48% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 49% OLP 42% NDP 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 48% OLP 42% NDP 7% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 48% OLP 42% NDP 7% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 49% OLP 41% NDP 7% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Markham—Thornhill

OLP 13% PCPO 87% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 90% OLP 10% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 87% OLP 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 87% OLP 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 87% OLP 13% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Markham—Thornhill



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 34.9% 50.5% 48.8% 49% ± 10% OLP 51.4% 24.4% 37.5% 41% ± 10% NDP 10.2% 21.3% 9.0% 7% ± 4% GPO 2.3% 2.3% 2.6% 3% ± 2%