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Recent electoral history | Ottawa South


2018 2022 2025 Projection OLP 52% ± 10% 39.6% 45.1% 53.2% PC 26% ± 8% 29.2% 23.2% 24.6% NDP 17% ± 7% 27.2% 23.8% 17.8% GPO 3% ± 2% 3.1% 4.7% 2.9% NBPO 2% ± 2% 0.0% 1.7% 1.5%

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338Canada Ottawa South projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Ottawa South 43% 62% 52% ± 10% OLP 18% 34% 26% ± 8% PC 11% 24% 17% ± 7% NDP OLP 2025 53.23% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa South >99% OLP <1% PC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Ottawa South

OLP 52% ± 10% PC 26% ± 8% NDP 17% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 OLP 46% PC 25% NDP 21% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 46% PC 25% NDP 21% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 45% PC 28% NDP 21% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 45% PC 28% NDP 21% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 45% PC 27% NDP 21% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 46% PC 28% NDP 19% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 46% PC 28% NDP 19% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 45% PC 28% NDP 19% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 46% PC 28% NDP 19% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 46% PC 28% NDP 19% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 45% PC 28% NDP 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 45% PC 28% NDP 19% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 46% PC 28% NDP 18% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 47% PC 28% NDP 18% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 47% PC 29% NDP 18% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 48% PC 29% NDP 17% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 48% PC 29% NDP 17% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 48% PC 29% NDP 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 49% PC 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 48% PC 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 48% PC 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 48% PC 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 48% PC 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 48% PC 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 48% PC 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 48% PC 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 48% PC 28% NDP 17% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 48% PC 29% NDP 17% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 48% PC 29% NDP 17% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 53% PC 25% NDP 18% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 53% PC 25% NDP 18% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 53% PC 25% NDP 17% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 OLP 53% PC 25% NDP 17% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 OLP 53% PC 28% NDP 15% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 OLP 53% PC 28% NDP 14% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 OLP 52% PC 28% NDP 16% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 OLP 52% PC 26% NDP 17% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 OLP 52% PC 26% NDP 17% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 OLP 52% PC 26% NDP 17% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Ottawa South

OLP >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 OLP >99% NDP <1% 2026-02-18