logo
logo
Ontario

Ottawa South


MPP: Fraser, John (OLP)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Safe OLP
Ottawa South 46% ± 9% OLP 24% ± 7% PCPO 22% ± 7%▲ NDP 6% ± 4% GPO OLP 2022 45.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa South >99% OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ottawa South

OLP 46% ± 9% PCPO 24% ± 7% NDP 22% ± 7% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP 55% PCPO 26% NDP 13% GPO 1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP 53% PCPO 24% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP 52% PCPO 24% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP 53% PCPO 24% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP 53% PCPO 24% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP 53% PCPO 23% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 53% PCPO 23% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 54% PCPO 23% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 54% PCPO 23% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP 53% PCPO 24% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP 53% PCPO 24% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP 53% PCPO 24% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP 52% PCPO 24% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP 51% PCPO 24% NDP 19% GPO 1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP 52% PCPO 23% NDP 19% GPO 1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 53% PCPO 23% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 52% PCPO 23% NDP 18% GPO 1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 52% PCPO 23% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 51% PCPO 23% NDP 19% GPO 2% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 51% PCPO 23% NDP 19% GPO 2% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 51% PCPO 23% NDP 19% GPO 2% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 51% PCPO 23% NDP 19% GPO 2% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 51% PCPO 23% NDP 19% GPO 2% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP 51% PCPO 23% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP 51% PCPO 23% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP 50% PCPO 23% NDP 19% GPO 2% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP 50% PCPO 24% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP 50% PCPO 24% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 50% PCPO 24% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 50% PCPO 24% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP 48% PCPO 28% NDP 17% GPO 2% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 OLP 45% NDP 24% PCPO 23% GPO 5% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 OLP 45% NDP 24% PCPO 23% GPO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 OLP 46% PCPO 23% NDP 22% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP 47% PCPO 23% NDP 22% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP 47% PCPO 23% NDP 22% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 OLP 46% PCPO 23% NDP 23% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 46% NDP 24% PCPO 20% GPO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 46% NDP 24% PCPO 20% GPO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 46% NDP 24% PCPO 21% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 46% NDP 24% PCPO 21% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 47% NDP 24% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 46% NDP 24% PCPO 21% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 OLP 45% NDP 24% PCPO 22% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 47% NDP 23% PCPO 21% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 48% NDP 23% PCPO 21% GPO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 51% NDP 22% PCPO 19% GPO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 49% PCPO 22% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 47% PCPO 22% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 47% PCPO 23% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP 45% PCPO 24% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP 45% PCPO 25% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP 46% PCPO 24% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 OLP 46% PCPO 24% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 OLP 46% PCPO 24% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Ottawa South

OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 OLP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 OLP >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% GPO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 OLP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 OLP >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% PCPO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 OLP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 OLP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 OLP >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 OLP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Ottawa South



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 50.0% 39.6% 45.1% 46% ± 9% NDP 12.3% 27.2% 23.8% 22% ± 7% PCPO 32.1% 29.2% 23.2% 24% ± 7% GPO 4.3% 3.1% 4.7% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1% ± 1%