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Ontario

Ottawa South


MPP: Fraser, John (OLP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe OLP

Candidates | Ottawa South


PC Party of Ontario Jan Gao
Liberal Party John Fraser
Ontario NDP Morgan Gay
Green Party Nira Dookeran
New Blue Party Alex Perrier

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Ottawa South 48% ± 9% OLP 28% ± 8% PCPO 17% ± 6% NDP 6% ± 3% GPO OLP 2022 45.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ottawa South >99% OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ottawa South

OLP 48% ± 9% PCPO 28% ± 8% NDP 17% ± 6% GPO 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ottawa South 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 46% PCPO 25% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 46% PCPO 25% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 45% PCPO 28% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 45% PCPO 28% NDP 21% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 45% PCPO 27% NDP 21% GPO 5% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 46% PCPO 28% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 46% PCPO 28% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 45% PCPO 28% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 46% PCPO 28% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 46% PCPO 28% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 45% PCPO 28% NDP 20% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 45% PCPO 28% NDP 19% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 46% PCPO 28% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 47% PCPO 28% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 47% PCPO 29% NDP 18% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 48% PCPO 29% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 48% PCPO 29% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 48% PCPO 29% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 49% PCPO 28% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 48% PCPO 28% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 48% PCPO 28% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 48% PCPO 28% NDP 17% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Ottawa South

OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Ottawa South



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 50.0% 39.6% 45.1% 48% ± 9% NDP 12.3% 27.2% 23.8% 17% ± 6% PCPO 32.1% 29.2% 23.2% 28% ± 8% GPO 4.3% 3.1% 4.7% 6% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1%