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Ontario

York South—Weston


MPP: Ford, Michael (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | York South—Weston


PC Party of Ontario Mohamed Firin
Liberal Party Daniel Di Giorgio
Ontario NDP Faisal Hassan
Green Party Lilian Barrera
New Blue Party Victor Ehikwe
Independent K. Ann Thomas

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

York South—Weston 45% ± 9% PCPO 28% ± 8% OLP 23% ± 7% NDP PCPO 2022 36.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York South—Weston >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | York South—Weston

OLP 28% ± 8% PCPO 45% ± 9% NDP 23% ± 7% Popular vote projection % | York South—Weston 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 40% NDP 29% OLP 26% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 40% NDP 28% OLP 26% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 42% NDP 28% OLP 25% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 25% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 42% NDP 28% OLP 26% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 43% OLP 27% NDP 26% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 43% OLP 27% NDP 26% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 44% OLP 26% NDP 26% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 44% OLP 26% NDP 26% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 43% OLP 26% NDP 26% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 43% NDP 27% OLP 26% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 43% NDP 26% OLP 26% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 44% OLP 27% NDP 25% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 44% OLP 27% NDP 24% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 44% OLP 27% NDP 24% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 45% OLP 28% NDP 24% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 45% OLP 28% NDP 23% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 45% OLP 28% NDP 23% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 44% OLP 28% NDP 24% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 44% OLP 28% NDP 24% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 45% OLP 28% NDP 23% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 45% OLP 28% NDP 23% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | York South—Weston

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 97% NDP 2% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 98% NDP 1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | York South—Weston



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 11.3% 33.0% 36.6% 45% ± 9% NDP 37.3% 36.1% 34.0% 23% ± 7% OLP 47.8% 27.8% 24.2% 28% ± 8% GPO 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 3% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0% ± 1%