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Recent electoral history | York South—Weston


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 37% ± 9% 33.0% 36.6% 35.2% OLP 34% ± 9% 27.8% 24.2% 34.7% NDP 25% ± 8% 36.1% 34.0% 25.6% GPO 3% ± 2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% NBPO 1% ± 2% 0.0% 1.1% 1.2% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%

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338Canada York South—Weston projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

York South—Weston 27% 46% 37% ± 9% PC 24% 43% 34% ± 9% OLP 16% 33% 25% ± 8% NDP PC 2025 35.15% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York South—Weston 69%▼ PC 31%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | York South—Weston

OLP 34% ± 9% PC 37% ± 9% NDP 25% ± 8% Popular vote projection % | York South—Weston 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 40% NDP 29% OLP 26% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 40% NDP 28% OLP 26% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 42% NDP 28% OLP 25% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 43% NDP 28% OLP 25% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 42% NDP 28% OLP 26% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 43% OLP 27% NDP 26% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 43% OLP 27% NDP 26% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 44% OLP 26% NDP 26% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 44% OLP 26% NDP 26% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 43% OLP 26% NDP 26% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 43% NDP 27% OLP 26% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 43% NDP 26% OLP 26% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 44% OLP 27% NDP 25% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 44% OLP 27% NDP 24% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 44% OLP 27% NDP 24% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 45% OLP 28% NDP 24% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 45% OLP 28% NDP 23% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 45% OLP 28% NDP 23% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 44% OLP 28% NDP 24% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 44% OLP 28% NDP 24% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 45% OLP 28% NDP 23% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 45% OLP 28% NDP 23% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 45% OLP 28% NDP 23% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 45% OLP 28% NDP 24% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 41% OLP 28% NDP 27% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 41% OLP 28% NDP 27% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 41% OLP 28% NDP 27% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 41% OLP 28% NDP 27% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 41% OLP 28% NDP 27% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 35% OLP 35% NDP 26% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 35% OLP 35% NDP 25% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 35% OLP 35% NDP 25% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 36% OLP 34% NDP 25% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 40% OLP 34% NDP 21% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 40% OLP 35% NDP 21% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 39% OLP 34% NDP 23% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 37% OLP 34% NDP 25% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 37% OLP 34% NDP 25% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 37% OLP 34% NDP 25% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | York South—Weston

OLP 31% PC 69% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 97% NDP 2% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 98% NDP 1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 56% OLP 44% NDP 1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 54% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 61% OLP 39% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 84% OLP 16% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 74% OLP 26% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 71% OLP 29% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 69% OLP 31% NDP <1% 2026-02-18