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Ontario

Scarborough Southwest


MPP: Begum, Doly (NDP)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Likely NDP
Scarborough Southwest 43% ± 9% NDP 30% ± 8%▲ PCPO 20% ± 7%▼ OLP 5% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 47.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough Southwest 99%▼ NDP 1%▲ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Scarborough Southwest

OLP 20% ± 7% PCPO 30% ± 8% NDP 43% ± 9% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough Southwest 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 33% PCPO 29% OLP 29% GPO 4% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 34% OLP 29% PCPO 28% GPO 4% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 33% OLP 30% PCPO 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 32% OLP 31% PCPO 28% GPO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 33% OLP 29% PCPO 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 32% OLP 29% PCPO 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 32% PCPO 30% OLP 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 32% PCPO 29% OLP 29% GPO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 32% PCPO 30% OLP 29% GPO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 32% OLP 30% PCPO 29% GPO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 31% NDP 30% PCPO 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 31% NDP 30% PCPO 29% GPO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 30% NDP 29% PCPO 29% GPO 5% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 31% OLP 30% PCPO 28% GPO 5% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 31% OLP 30% PCPO 28% GPO 5% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 31% OLP 30% PCPO 28% GPO 5% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 30% OLP 30% PCPO 29% GPO 5% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 30% OLP 30% PCPO 28% GPO 5% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 30% OLP 30% PCPO 28% GPO 5% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 30% OLP 29% PCPO 28% GPO 5% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 30% OLP 29% PCPO 29% GPO 5% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP 29% PCPO 29% NDP 29% GPO 5% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP 29% PCPO 29% NDP 29% GPO 5% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 29% PCPO 29% NDP 29% GPO 5% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 30% OLP 29% NDP 29% GPO 5% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 31% PCPO 31% OLP 27% GPO 5% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 47% PCPO 28% OLP 19% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 48% PCPO 28% OLP 19% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP 45% PCPO 28% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 45% PCPO 28% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 45% PCPO 28% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 46% PCPO 28% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 48% PCPO 25% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 48% PCPO 25% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 47% PCPO 26% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 47% PCPO 26% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 48% PCPO 24% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 48% PCPO 25% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 47% PCPO 27% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 46% PCPO 27% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 46% PCPO 27% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 44% PCPO 25% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 43% PCPO 26% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 44% PCPO 26% OLP 22% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 44% PCPO 27% OLP 22% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 44% PCPO 28% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 42% PCPO 29% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 43% PCPO 28% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 43% PCPO 29% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 43% PCPO 30% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Scarborough Southwest

OLP <1% PCPO 1% NDP 99% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 NDP 68% PCPO 16% OLP 16% GPO <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 NDP 72% OLP 16% PCPO 12% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 NDP 63% OLP 20% PCPO 17% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 NDP 61% OLP 21% PCPO 18% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 NDP 65% OLP 18% PCPO 17% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 NDP 65% OLP 19% PCPO 16% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 NDP 67% OLP 20% PCPO 13% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 NDP 60% OLP 26% PCPO 14% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 NDP 57% OLP 31% PCPO 12% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 NDP 60% OLP 21% PCPO 19% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 NDP 58% OLP 22% PCPO 20% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 NDP 55% PCPO 23% OLP 22% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 NDP 55% PCPO 23% OLP 22% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 NDP 56% PCPO 26% OLP 18% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 NDP 55% OLP 27% PCPO 18% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 47% NDP 32% PCPO 21% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 47% NDP 29% PCPO 23% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 45% NDP 31% PCPO 25% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 NDP 48% OLP 34% PCPO 18% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 NDP 48% OLP 34% PCPO 18% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 NDP 49% OLP 35% PCPO 16% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 NDP 44% OLP 35% PCPO 21% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 NDP 43% OLP 36% PCPO 21% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 NDP 42% OLP 36% PCPO 22% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 NDP 42% OLP 36% PCPO 22% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 NDP 42% OLP 35% PCPO 24% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 OLP 35% PCPO 33% NDP 32% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 OLP 35% PCPO 34% NDP 31% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 36% PCPO 33% NDP 31% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 37% OLP 34% NDP 30% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 NDP 48% PCPO 44% OLP 8% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% GPO <1% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP >99% PCPO <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 99% PCPO 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Scarborough Southwest



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 23.6% 45.5% 47.1% 43% ± 9% PCPO 21.0% 31.3% 27.9% 30% ± 8% OLP 49.9% 18.9% 18.8% 20% ± 7% GPO 4.1% 2.6% 3.6% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1% ± 1%