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Ontario

Scarborough Southwest


MPP: Begum, Doly (NDP)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
Likely NDP
Scarborough Southwest 44% ± 9%▲ NDP 28% ± 8%▼ PCPO 22% ± 7%▲ OLP 4% ± 3%▼ GPO NDP 2022 47.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough Southwest >99%▲ NDP <1%▼ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Scarborough Southwest

OLP 22% ± 7% PCPO 28% ± 8% NDP 44% ± 9% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough Southwest 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 NDP 45% PCPO 28% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP 45% PCPO 28% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP 45% PCPO 28% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 46% PCPO 28% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 48% PCPO 25% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 48% PCPO 25% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 47% PCPO 26% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 47% PCPO 26% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 48% PCPO 24% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 48% PCPO 25% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 47% PCPO 27% OLP 19% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 46% PCPO 27% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 46% PCPO 27% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 44% PCPO 25% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 43% PCPO 26% OLP 24% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 44% PCPO 26% OLP 22% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 44% PCPO 27% OLP 22% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP 44% PCPO 28% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 42% PCPO 29% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP 43% PCPO 28% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP 43% PCPO 29% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 43% PCPO 30% OLP 20% GPO 5% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 NDP 44% PCPO 28% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-01-20 Stiles NDP leader Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | Scarborough Southwest

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 NDP 99% PCPO 1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 NDP 99% PCPO 1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-20 Stiles NDP leader Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | Scarborough Southwest



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 23.6% 45.5% 47.1% 44% ± 9% PCPO 21.0% 31.3% 27.9% 28% ± 8% OLP 49.9% 18.9% 18.8% 22% ± 7% GPO 4.1% 2.6% 3.6% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1% ± 1%