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Recent electoral history | Scarborough Southwest


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 45% ± 10% 45.5% 47.1% 42.9% PC 30% ± 9% 31.3% 27.9% 30.6% OLP 21% ± 8% 18.9% 18.8% 22.9% GPO 3% ± 3% 2.6% 3.6% 3.5%

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338Canada Scarborough Southwest projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Scarborough Southwest 35% 55% 45% ± 10% NDP 22% 39% 30% ± 9% PC 14% 29% 21% ± 8% OLP NDP 2025 42.89% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough Southwest 99% NDP 1% PC <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Scarborough Southwest

OLP 21% ± 8% PC 30% ± 9% NDP 45% ± 10% GPO 3% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough Southwest 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 42% PC 31% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 41% PC 31% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 41% PC 33% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 41% PC 33% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 41% PC 33% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 40% PC 33% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 40% PC 33% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 39% PC 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 40% PC 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 40% PC 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 40% PC 34% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 40% PC 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 39% PC 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 38% PC 34% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 39% PC 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 39% PC 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 38% PC 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 38% PC 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 39% PC 34% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 39% PC 34% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 39% PC 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 39% PC 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 39% PC 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 39% PC 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 39% PC 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 39% PC 34% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 39% PC 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 38% PC 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 38% PC 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 43% PC 31% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 42% PC 31% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 42% PC 31% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 42% PC 32% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 38% PC 36% OLP 23% GPO 3% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 39% PC 35% OLP 23% GPO 3% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 42% PC 33% OLP 22% GPO 3% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 45% PC 31% OLP 21% GPO 3% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 45% PC 31% OLP 21% GPO 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 45% PC 30% OLP 21% GPO 3% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Scarborough Southwest

OLP <1% PC 1% NDP 99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 97% PC 3% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 96% PC 4% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 91% PC 9% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 90% PC 10% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 93% PC 7% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 87% PC 13% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 86% PC 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 82% PC 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 83% PC 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 86% PC 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 88% PC 12% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 85% PC 15% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 81% PC 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 75% PC 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 75% PC 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 74% PC 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 73% PC 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 73% PC 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 82% PC 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 81% PC 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 75% PC 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 75% PC 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 76% PC 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 78% PC 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 78% PC 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 78% PC 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 79% PC 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 70% PC 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 69% PC 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% PC <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 97% PC 3% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 97% PC 3% OLP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 95% PC 5% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 NDP 63% PC 37% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 NDP 78% PC 22% OLP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 93% PC 7% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 99% PC 1% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 99% PC 1% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 99% PC 1% OLP <1% 2026-02-18