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Ontario

Scarborough Southwest


MPP elect: Doly Begum (NDP)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Likely NDP

Candidates | Scarborough Southwest


PC Party of Ontario Addie Daramola
Liberal Party Qadira Jackson
Ontario NDP Doly Begum
Green Party Mark Bekkering

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Scarborough Southwest 43% ± 0%▲ NDP 31% ± 0%▼ PCPO 23% ± 0%▲ OLP 4% ± 0% GPO NDP 2022 47.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough Southwest >99%▲ NDP <1%▼ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Scarborough Southwest

OLP 23% ± 0% PCPO 31% ± 0% NDP 43% ± 0% GPO 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough Southwest 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 42% PCPO 31% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 41% PCPO 31% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 41% PCPO 33% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 41% PCPO 33% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 41% PCPO 33% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 43% PCPO 31% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Scarborough Southwest

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 97% PCPO 3% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 96% PCPO 4% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 91% PCPO 9% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 90% PCPO 10% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 93% PCPO 7% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 87% PCPO 13% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 86% PCPO 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 83% PCPO 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 86% PCPO 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 88% PCPO 12% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 85% PCPO 15% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 81% PCPO 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 74% PCPO 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 73% PCPO 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 73% PCPO 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 81% PCPO 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 76% PCPO 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 78% PCPO 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 78% PCPO 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 78% PCPO 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 70% PCPO 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Scarborough Southwest



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 23.6% 45.5% 47.1% 43% ± 0% PCPO 21.0% 31.3% 27.9% 31% ± 0% OLP 49.9% 18.9% 18.8% 23% ± 0% GPO 4.1% 2.6% 3.6% 4% ± 0%