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Ontario

Scarborough Southwest


MPP : Doly Begum (NDP)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Likely NDP

Recent electoral history | Scarborough Southwest


2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 23.6% 45.5% 47.1% 42% ± 10% PCPO 21.0% 31.3% 27.9% 31% ± 9% OLP 49.9% 18.9% 18.8% 23% ± 8% GPO 4.1% 2.6% 3.6% 4% ± 3%

Scarborough Southwest 42% ± 10% NDP 31% ± 9% PCPO 23% ± 8% OLP 4% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 47.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough Southwest 97% NDP 3% PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Scarborough Southwest

OLP 23% ± 8% PCPO 31% ± 9% NDP 42% ± 10% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough Southwest 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 42% PCPO 31% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 41% PCPO 31% OLP 21% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 41% PCPO 33% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 41% PCPO 33% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 41% PCPO 33% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 40% PCPO 33% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 20% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 40% PCPO 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 21% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 38% PCPO 34% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 39% PCPO 34% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 39% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 38% PCPO 35% OLP 22% GPO 4% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 43% PCPO 31% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 42% PCPO 31% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 42% PCPO 31% OLP 23% GPO 4% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Scarborough Southwest

OLP <1% PCPO 3% NDP 97% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 97% PCPO 3% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 96% PCPO 4% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 NDP 91% PCPO 9% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 NDP 90% PCPO 10% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 NDP 93% PCPO 7% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 NDP 87% PCPO 13% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 NDP 86% PCPO 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 NDP 83% PCPO 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 NDP 86% PCPO 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 NDP 88% PCPO 12% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 NDP 85% PCPO 15% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 NDP 81% PCPO 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 NDP 74% PCPO 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 NDP 73% PCPO 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 NDP 73% PCPO 27% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 NDP 82% PCPO 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 NDP 81% PCPO 19% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 NDP 75% PCPO 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 76% PCPO 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 78% PCPO 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 78% PCPO 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 78% PCPO 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 79% PCPO 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 NDP 70% PCPO 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 69% PCPO 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 97% PCPO 3% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 97% PCPO 3% OLP <1% 2025-06-27