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Ontario

Scarborough Southwest


MPP: Begum, Doly (NDP)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Likely NDP
Scarborough Southwest 44% ± 9% NDP 27% ± 8%▲ PCPO 22% ± 7% OLP 5% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 47.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough Southwest >99% NDP <1% PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Scarborough Southwest

OLP 22% ± 7% PCPO 27% ± 8% NDP 44% ± 9% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough Southwest 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Scarborough Southwest

OLP <1% PCPO <1% NDP >99% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Scarborough Southwest



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 23.6% 45.5% 47.1% 44% ± 9% PCPO 21.0% 31.3% 27.9% 27% ± 8% OLP 49.9% 18.9% 18.8% 22% ± 7% GPO 4.1% 2.6% 3.6% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1% ± 1%