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Ontario

Etobicoke North


MPP: Ford, Doug (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Etobicoke North


PC Party of Ontario Doug Ford
Liberal Party Julie Lutete
Ontario NDP Bryan Blair
Green Party Chelsey Edwards
New Blue Party John Gardner
Ontario Party Andy D'Andrea

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Etobicoke North 61% ± 9% PCPO 25% ± 8% OLP 8% ± 4%▼ NDP PCPO 2022 55.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Etobicoke North >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Etobicoke North

OLP 25% ± 8% PCPO 61% ± 9% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Etobicoke North 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 57% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 58% OLP 25% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 60% OLP 24% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 60% OLP 24% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 60% OLP 24% NDP 11% GPO 3% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 60% OLP 25% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 60% OLP 25% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 61% OLP 24% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 61% OLP 24% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 60% OLP 25% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 61% OLP 24% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 61% OLP 24% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 61% OLP 25% NDP 9% GPO 3% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 61% OLP 25% NDP 9% GPO 3% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 61% OLP 25% NDP 9% GPO 3% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 61% OLP 25% NDP 9% GPO 3% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 62% OLP 25% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 62% OLP 25% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 60% OLP 26% NDP 9% GPO 3% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 60% OLP 26% NDP 9% GPO 3% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 61% OLP 25% NDP 9% GPO 3% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 61% OLP 25% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Etobicoke North

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Etobicoke North



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 22.5% 52.5% 55.3% 61% ± 9% OLP 45.6% 18.2% 23.5% 25% ± 8% NDP 25.7% 25.4% 13.1% 8% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 1% ± 1% GPO 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 3% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1% ± 1%