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Ontario

Pickering—Uxbridge


MPP: Bethlenfalvy, Peter (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Pickering—Uxbridge


PC Party of Ontario Peter Bethlenfalvy
Liberal Party Ibrahim Daniyal
Ontario NDP Khalid Ahmed
Green Party Mini Batra
New Blue Party Adrian Nolan
Ontario Party Victoria Devenport
Centrist Party Mansoor Qureshi
Moderate Party Netalia Duboisky

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Pickering—Uxbridge 47% ± 9% PCPO 33% ± 9% OLP 12% ± 5% NDP 6% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 44.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Pickering—Uxbridge 99% PCPO 1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Pickering—Uxbridge

OLP 33% ± 9% PCPO 47% ± 9% NDP 12% ± 5% GPO 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Pickering—Uxbridge 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 45% OLP 30% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 45% OLP 30% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 48% OLP 29% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 48% OLP 29% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 47% OLP 30% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 48% OLP 30% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 48% OLP 30% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 49% OLP 30% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 49% OLP 30% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 46% OLP 32% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 46% OLP 31% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 46% OLP 31% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 46% OLP 32% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 46% OLP 32% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 46% OLP 32% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 46% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 46% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Pickering—Uxbridge

OLP 1% PCPO 99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Pickering—Uxbridge



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 32.6% 42.2% 44.4% 47% ± 9% OLP 47.2% 20.4% 28.6% 33% ± 9% NDP 14.8% 32.0% 16.0% 12% ± 5% GPO 4.2% 4.0% 5.2% 6% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%