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Recent electoral history | Pickering—Uxbridge


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 50% ± 9% 42.2% 44.4% 48.2% OLP 38% ± 9% 20.4% 28.6% 39.6% NDP 7% ± 4% 32.0% 16.0% 7.2% GPO 3% ± 2% 4.0% 5.2% 2.8% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.9% ONP 1% ± 1% 0.0% 4.1% 0.8%

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338Canada Pickering—Uxbridge projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Pickering—Uxbridge 41% 59% 50% ± 9% PC 29% 48% 38% ± 9% OLP 3% 11% 7% ± 4% NDP PC 2025 48.15% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Pickering—Uxbridge 96% PC 4% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Pickering—Uxbridge

OLP 38% ± 9% PC 50% ± 9% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Pickering—Uxbridge 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 45% OLP 30% NDP 15% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 45% OLP 30% NDP 15% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 48% OLP 29% NDP 15% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 48% OLP 29% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 47% OLP 30% NDP 15% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 48% OLP 30% NDP 14% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 48% OLP 30% NDP 14% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 49% OLP 30% NDP 13% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 49% OLP 30% NDP 13% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 46% OLP 32% NDP 14% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 46% OLP 31% NDP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 46% OLP 31% NDP 14% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 46% OLP 32% NDP 13% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 46% OLP 32% NDP 13% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 46% OLP 32% NDP 13% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 46% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 46% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 48% OLP 40% NDP 7% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 48% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 48% OLP 40% NDP 7% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 49% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 52% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 52% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 52% OLP 37% NDP 6% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 50% OLP 38% NDP 7% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 50% OLP 38% NDP 7% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 50% OLP 38% NDP 7% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Pickering—Uxbridge

OLP 4% PC 96% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2026-02-18