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Recent electoral history | Mississauga—Erin Mills


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 46% ± 10% 41.7% 42.2% 44.2% OLP 43% ± 10% 25.3% 37.4% 44.2% NDP 5% ± 3% 27.6% 12.1% 5.5% GPO 3% ± 2% 2.7% 4.3% 2.9% NBPO 2% ± 2% 0.0% 2.6% 2.0% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1%

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338Canada Mississauga—Erin Mills projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Mississauga—Erin Mills 36% 56% 46% ± 10% PC 33% 53% 43% ± 10% OLP 2% 9% 5% ± 3% NDP PC 2025 44.25% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mississauga—Erin Mills 68%▼ PC 32%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Mississauga—Erin Mills

OLP 43% ± 10% PC 46% ± 10% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Mississauga—Erin Mills 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 41% OLP 40% NDP 11% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 42% OLP 40% NDP 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 44% OLP 39% NDP 11% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 44% OLP 39% NDP 11% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 44% OLP 40% NDP 11% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 44% OLP 40% NDP 10% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 44% OLP 40% NDP 10% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 45% OLP 39% NDP 10% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 44% OLP 40% NDP 10% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 42% OLP 42% NDP 10% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 42% OLP 41% NDP 10% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 42% OLP 41% NDP 10% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 42% OLP 42% NDP 10% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 42% PC 42% NDP 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 43% PC 42% NDP 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 43% PC 42% NDP 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 43% OLP 43% NDP 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 43% OLP 43% NDP 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 44% PC 42% NDP 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 44% PC 42% NDP 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 43% PC 42% NDP 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 43% PC 43% NDP 9% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 43% PC 43% NDP 9% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 43% PC 43% NDP 9% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 43% PC 43% NDP 9% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 43% PC 42% NDP 9% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 43% PC 42% NDP 9% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 43% PC 43% NDP 9% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 43% PC 43% NDP 9% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 44% OLP 44% NDP 6% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 45% OLP 44% NDP 5% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 44% OLP 44% NDP 5% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 45% OLP 44% NDP 5% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 48% OLP 42% NDP 4% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 48% OLP 42% NDP 4% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 48% OLP 42% NDP 5% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 47% OLP 42% NDP 5% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 46% OLP 42% NDP 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 46% OLP 43% NDP 5% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Mississauga—Erin Mills

OLP 32% PC 68% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 58% OLP 42% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 73% OLP 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 71% OLP 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 72% OLP 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 78% OLP 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 59% OLP 41% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 50% OLP 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 52% PC 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 52% PC 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 55% PC 45% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 50% OLP 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 64% PC 36% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 62% PC 38% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 54% PC 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 52% PC 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 53% PC 47% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 52% PC 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 51% PC 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 56% PC 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 56% PC 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 50% PC 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 52% PC 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 53% OLP 47% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 52% OLP 48% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 59% OLP 41% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 84% OLP 16% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 73% OLP 27% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 70% OLP 30% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 68% OLP 32% NDP <1% 2026-02-18