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Mississauga—Erin Mills


MPP: Sabawy, Sheref (PCPO)

Latest projection: June 30, 2024
Toss up OLP/PCPO
Mississauga—Erin Mills 41% ± 9%▲ PCPO 39% ± 9%▼ OLP 11% ± 5% NDP 5% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 42.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 30, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mississauga—Erin Mills 67%▲ PCPO 33%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 30, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mississauga—Erin Mills

OLP 39% ± 9% PCPO 41% ± 9% NDP 11% ± 5% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Mississauga—Erin Mills 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 30, 2024 2022-04-23 PCPO 38% OLP 38% NDP 16% GPO 2% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 OLP 39% PCPO 39% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 PCPO 40% OLP 39% NDP 14% GPO 2% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 38% OLP 36% NDP 19% GPO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 19% GPO 2% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 38% OLP 36% NDP 19% GPO 2% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 40% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 39% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 39% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 2% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 38% OLP 35% NDP 19% GPO 2% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 39% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 39% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 38% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 38% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 38% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 38% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 38% OLP 34% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 38% OLP 34% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 38% OLP 34% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 38% OLP 33% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 39% OLP 34% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 39% OLP 34% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 39% OLP 34% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 39% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 41% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 42% OLP 37% NDP 12% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 42% OLP 37% NDP 12% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 41% OLP 38% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 41% OLP 38% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 39% PCPO 38% NDP 13% GPO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 39% PCPO 38% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 39% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 40% PCPO 37% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 42% OLP 37% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 42% PCPO 37% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 43% PCPO 36% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 45% PCPO 35% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 43% PCPO 38% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 41% PCPO 39% NDP 12% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2024-06-30

Odds of winning | Mississauga—Erin Mills

OLP 33% PCPO 67% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 30, 2024 2022-04-23 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 OLP 50% PCPO 50% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 PCPO 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 65% OLP 35% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 56% OLP 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 73% OLP 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 80% OLP 20% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 71% OLP 29% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 76% OLP 24% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 76% OLP 24% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 76% OLP 24% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 78% OLP 22% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 78% OLP 22% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 79% OLP 21% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 81% OLP 19% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 84% OLP 16% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 84% OLP 16% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 83% OLP 17% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 85% OLP 15% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 69% OLP 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 63% OLP 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 55% PCPO 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 55% PCPO 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 53% OLP 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 56% OLP 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 73% PCPO 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 78% OLP 22% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 84% PCPO 16% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 88% PCPO 12% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 97% PCPO 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 76% PCPO 24% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 62% PCPO 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 OLP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30

Recent electoral history | Mississauga—Erin Mills



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 29.3% 41.7% 42.2% 41% ± 9% OLP 49.3% 25.3% 37.4% 39% ± 9% NDP 15.1% 27.6% 12.1% 11% ± 5% GPO 2.3% 2.7% 4.3% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%