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Ontario

Mississauga—Erin Mills


MPP: Sabawy, Sheref (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Toss up OLP/PCPO

Candidates | Mississauga—Erin Mills


PC Party of Ontario Sheref Sabawy
Liberal Party Qasir Dar
Ontario NDP Mubashir Rizvi
Green Party Adriane Franklin
New Blue Party Michael Bayer
Independent Michael Matulewicz
Independent Sajid Hussain

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Mississauga—Erin Mills 43% ± 9% OLP 43% ± 9%▲ PCPO 9% ± 4% NDP 5% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 42.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mississauga—Erin Mills 52%▼ OLP 48%▲ PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mississauga—Erin Mills

OLP 43% ± 9% PCPO 43% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 4% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Mississauga—Erin Mills 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 42% OLP 40% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 44% OLP 39% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 44% OLP 39% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 44% OLP 40% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 44% OLP 40% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 44% OLP 40% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 45% OLP 39% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 44% OLP 40% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 42% OLP 42% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 42% OLP 42% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 42% PCPO 42% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 43% PCPO 42% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 43% PCPO 42% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 43% OLP 43% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 43% OLP 43% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 44% PCPO 42% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 44% PCPO 42% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 43% PCPO 42% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 43% PCPO 43% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Mississauga—Erin Mills

OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 58% OLP 42% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 73% OLP 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 71% OLP 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 72% OLP 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 80% OLP 20% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 78% OLP 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 59% OLP 41% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 50% OLP 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 55% PCPO 45% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 50% OLP 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 64% PCPO 36% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 62% PCPO 38% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 54% PCPO 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Mississauga—Erin Mills



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 29.3% 41.7% 42.2% 43% ± 9% OLP 49.3% 25.3% 37.4% 43% ± 9% NDP 15.1% 27.6% 12.1% 9% ± 4% GPO 2.3% 2.7% 4.3% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1% ± 1%