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Ontario


York Centre


MPP: Kerzner, Michael (PCPO)


Latest projection: October 23, 2023

Likely PCPO
York Centre 43% ± 9%▲ 33% ± 8%▼ 15% ± 6% 3% ± 3%▼ 3% ± 2% PCPO 2022 45.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 23, 2023
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% York Centre 95%▲ 5%▼ <1% Odds of winning | October 23, 2023
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | York Centre

OLP 33% ± 8% PCPO 43% ± 9% NDP 15% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | York Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP

Odds of winning | York Centre

OLP 5% PCPO 95% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | York Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 30.9% 50.2% 45.8% 43% ± 9% OLP 48.1% 21.4% 32.0% 33% ± 8% NDP 16.4% 23.4% 14.0% 15% ± 6% GPO 3.3% 2.3% 2.5% 3% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 3% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 2% ± 2%