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Ontario

York Centre


MPP: Kerzner, Michael (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Likely PCPO
York Centre 46% ± 9%▲ PCPO 34% ± 9% OLP 12% ± 5% NDP 3% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 45.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York Centre 97% PCPO 3% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | York Centre

OLP 34% ± 9% PCPO 46% ± 9% NDP 12% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | York Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 46% OLP 30% NDP 16% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 45% OLP 30% NDP 17% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 16% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 16% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 46% OLP 31% NDP 16% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 16% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 16% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 16% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 44% OLP 32% NDP 16% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 46% OLP 31% NDP 16% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 46% OLP 31% NDP 16% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 46% OLP 31% NDP 16% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 46% OLP 30% NDP 15% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 46% OLP 30% NDP 16% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 45% OLP 30% NDP 16% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 15% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 16% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 16% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 16% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 16% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 16% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 16% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 44% OLP 30% NDP 16% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 45% OLP 29% NDP 16% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 46% OLP 29% NDP 15% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 46% OLP 29% NDP 15% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 46% OLP 29% NDP 15% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 47% OLP 28% NDP 15% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 50% OLP 27% NDP 14% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 46% OLP 32% NDP 14% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 45% OLP 32% NDP 14% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 45% OLP 33% NDP 13% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 45% OLP 34% NDP 13% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 45% OLP 34% NDP 13% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 45% OLP 33% NDP 13% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 15% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 42% OLP 34% NDP 15% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 15% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 14% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 40% OLP 35% NDP 15% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 15% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 46% OLP 32% NDP 14% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 14% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 14% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 13% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 42% OLP 38% NDP 12% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 43% OLP 36% NDP 13% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 44% OLP 36% NDP 13% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 45% OLP 34% NDP 13% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 45% OLP 34% NDP 12% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 46% OLP 34% NDP 12% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | York Centre

OLP 3% PCPO 97% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 92% OLP 8% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 92% OLP 8% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 83% OLP 17% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 52% PCPO 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 76% OLP 24% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 86% OLP 14% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | York Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 30.9% 50.2% 45.8% 46% ± 9% OLP 48.1% 21.4% 32.0% 34% ± 9% NDP 16.4% 23.4% 14.0% 12% ± 5% GPO 3.3% 2.3% 2.5% 3% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 1%