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Ontario

York Centre


MPP: Kerzner, Michael (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | York Centre


PC Party of Ontario Michael Kerzner
Liberal Party Sam Nestico
Ontario NDP Natalie Van Halteren
Green Party Courtney Martin
New Blue Party Johnny Blythe
Moderate Party Parviz Isgandarov
Party for People with Special Needs Lionel Poizner
Populist Ontario Jeffrey Anisman

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

York Centre 53% ± 9% PCPO 33% ± 9% OLP 9% ± 4% NDP PCPO 2022 45.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% York Centre >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | York Centre

OLP 33% ± 9% PCPO 53% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | York Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 49% OLP 33% NDP 12% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 49% OLP 33% NDP 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 52% OLP 32% NDP 11% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 52% OLP 31% NDP 11% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 51% OLP 32% NDP 11% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 52% OLP 33% NDP 10% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 52% OLP 33% NDP 10% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 53% OLP 32% NDP 10% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 52% OLP 32% NDP 10% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 52% OLP 32% NDP 10% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 53% OLP 31% NDP 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 52% OLP 32% NDP 10% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 52% OLP 32% NDP 10% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 52% OLP 33% NDP 9% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 53% OLP 33% NDP 9% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 53% OLP 33% NDP 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 53% OLP 33% NDP 9% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 53% OLP 33% NDP 9% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 52% OLP 34% NDP 9% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 52% OLP 34% NDP 9% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 53% OLP 33% NDP 9% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 53% OLP 33% NDP 9% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | York Centre

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | York Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 30.9% 50.2% 45.8% 53% ± 9% OLP 48.1% 21.4% 32.0% 33% ± 9% NDP 16.4% 23.4% 14.0% 9% ± 4% GPO 3.3% 2.3% 2.5% 3% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1% ± 1%