Ontario Liberal Party

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Leader	John Fraser (interim)
Popular vote in 2025	29.9%
Current vote projection	28.8% ± 3.8%
Current number of MPP	14
Current seat projection	13 [7-23]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | February 18, 2026

Seat projection | February 18, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party

	Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
1.	Kingston and the Islands Ted Hsu	L	Safe OLP
2.	Ottawa South John Fraser	L	Safe OLP
3.	Ottawa—Vanier Lucille Collard	L	Safe OLP
4.	Beaches—East York Mary-Margaret Mcmahon	L	Safe OLP
5.	Don Valley East Adil Shamji	L	Likely OLP
6.	Don Valley West Stephanie Bowman	L	Likely OLP
7.	Orléans Stephen Blais	L	Likely OLP
8.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Stephanie Smyth	L	Likely OLP
9.	Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
10.	Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Leaning OLP
11.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Leaning OLP
12.	Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Leaning OLP
13.	Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Toss up OLP/PC
14.	Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Toss up OLP/PC
15.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
16.	York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
17.	Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
18.	Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Leaning PCPO
19.	Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Leaning PCPO
20.	Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Leaning PCPO
21.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Leaning PCPO
22.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Leaning PCPO
23.	Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Leaning PCPO
24.	Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Leaning PCPO
25.	Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning PCPO
26.	Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Likely PCPO
27.	Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Likely PCPO
28.	Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Likely PCPO
29.	Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Likely PCPO
30.	Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Likely PCPO
31.	Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Likely PCPO
32.	Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Likely PCPO
33.	Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Likely PCPO
34.	Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Likely PCPO
35.	Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Likely PCPO
36.	Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Likely PCPO
37.	Toronto Centre Kristyn Wong-Tam	N	Likely NDP
38.	Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Likely PCPO
39.	Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Likely PCPO
40.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Neil Lumsden	PC	Likely PCPO
41.	Carleton George Darouze	PC	Likely PCPO
42.	Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Likely PCPO
43.	Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Toss up PC/NDP
44.	Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Likely PCPO
45.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Likely PCPO
46.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Likely PCPO
47.	Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
48.	Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Likely PCPO
49.	Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Likely PCPO
50.	Spadina—Fort York Chris Glover	N	Likely NDP
51.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Likely PCPO
52.	York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Safe PCPO
53.	Parkdale—High Park Alexa Gilmour	N	Safe NDP
54.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Safe PCPO
55.	University—Rosedale Jessica Bell	N	Safe NDP
56.	Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Safe PCPO
57.	Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Safe PCPO
58.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Safe PCPO
59.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Safe PCPO
60.	Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Safe PCPO
61.	Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Safe PCPO
62.	Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Safe PCPO
63.	Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Safe PCPO
64.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Safe PCPO
65.	Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Safe PCPO

Ontario Liberal Party

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Vote projection | February 18, 2026

Seat projection | February 18, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party