338Canada.com - Ontario - Ontario Liberal Party





Last update: March 31, 2021

LeaderSteven Del Duca
Popular vote in 201819.6%
Current vote projection24.0% ± 4.3%
Current number of MP's8
Current seat projection15 ± 13



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Ontario Liberal Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Ottawa—Vanier OLP safe >99%
2. Thunder Bay—Superior North OLP likely >99%
3. Ottawa South OLP likely >99%
4. Orléans OLP likely 93%
5. Ottawa Centre OLP likely 91%
6. Don Valley East OLP leaning 89%
7. Scarborough—Guildwood OLP leaning 82%
8. Thunder Bay—Atikokan OLP leaning 81%
9. Ottawa West—Nepean OLP leaning 76%
10. Don Valley West OLP leaning 72%
11. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up 62%
12. Toronto—St. Paul`s Toss up 50%
13. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Toss up 50%
14. Kingston and the Islands Toss up 42%
15. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up 42%
16. Etobicoke Centre Toss up 38%
17. Mississauga—Lakeshore Toss up 35%
18. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up 34%
19. Oakville PCO leaning 28%
20. York South—Weston Toss up 27%
21. Don Valley North PCO leaning 22%
22. Milton PCO leaning 20%
23. Toronto Centre NDP leaning 20%
24. Peterborough—Kawartha PCO leaning 15%
25. Beaches—East York NDP leaning 13%
26. Etobicoke—Lakeshore PCO leaning 11%
27. Mississauga Centre PCO leaning 11%
28. Cambridge PCO leaning 11%
29. Spadina—Fort York NDP likely 9%
30. Mississauga—Erin Mills PCO likely 9%
31. Burlington PCO likely 8%
32. Ajax PCO likely 7%
33. Sudbury NDP likely 7%
34. Mississauga—Streetsville PCO likely 4%
35. University—Rosedale NDP likely 4%
36. Scarborough Centre PCO likely 3%
37. Scarborough—Agincourt PCO likely 3%
38. Northumberland—Peterborough South PCO likely 2%
39. St. Catharines NDP leaning 2%
40. Kitchener Centre NDP leaning 2%
41. Brampton North Toss up 2%
42. Vaughan—Woodbridge PCO likely 2%
43. Willowdale PCO likely 2%
44. Markham—Stouffville PCO likely 2%
45. Oakville North—Burlington PCO likely 1%
46. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up 1%
47. Scarborough—Rouge Park PCO likely 1%
48. Mississauga—Malton PCO likely 1%
49. Richmond Hill PCO likely <1%
50. Markham—Thornhill PCO likely <1%
51. Newmarket—Aurora PCO likely <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Ottawa—Vanier OLP safe
2. Thunder Bay—Superior North OLP likely
3. Ottawa South OLP likely
4. Orléans OLP likely
5. Ottawa Centre OLP likely
6. Don Valley East OLP leaning
7. Scarborough—Guildwood OLP leaning
8. Thunder Bay—Atikokan OLP leaning
9. Ottawa West—Nepean OLP leaning
10. Don Valley West OLP leaning
11. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up
12. Toronto—St. Paul`s Toss up
13. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Toss up
14. Kingston and the Islands Toss up
15. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up
16. Etobicoke Centre Toss up
17. Mississauga—Lakeshore Toss up
18. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up
19. Oakville PCO leaning
20. York South—Weston Toss up
21. Don Valley North PCO leaning
22. Milton PCO leaning
23. Toronto Centre NDP leaning
24. Peterborough—Kawartha PCO leaning
25. Beaches—East York NDP leaning
26. Etobicoke—Lakeshore PCO leaning
27. Mississauga Centre PCO leaning
28. Cambridge PCO leaning
29. Spadina—Fort York NDP likely
30. Mississauga—Erin Mills PCO likely
31. Burlington PCO likely
32. Ajax PCO likely
33. Sudbury NDP likely
34. Mississauga—Streetsville PCO likely
35. University—Rosedale NDP likely
36. Scarborough Centre PCO likely
37. Scarborough—Agincourt PCO likely
38. Northumberland—Peterborough South PCO likely
39. St. Catharines NDP leaning
40. Kitchener Centre NDP leaning
41. Brampton North Toss up
42. Vaughan—Woodbridge PCO likely
43. Willowdale PCO likely
44. Markham—Stouffville PCO likely
45. Oakville North—Burlington PCO likely
46. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Toss up
47. Scarborough—Rouge Park PCO likely
48. Mississauga—Malton PCO likely
49. Richmond Hill PCO likely
50. Markham—Thornhill PCO likely
51. Newmarket—Aurora PCO likely



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