Ontario Liberal Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Kingston and the Islands	Safe OLP	>99%
2.	Beaches—East York	Safe OLP	>99%
3.	Ottawa—Vanier	Safe OLP	>99%
4.	Ottawa South	Safe OLP	>99%
5.	Don Valley East	Likely OLP	99%
6.	Don Valley West	Likely OLP	99%
7.	Toronto—St. Paul’s	Likely OLP	98%
8.	Orléans	Likely OLP	97%
9.	Scarborough—Guildwood	Leaning OLP	81%
10.	Nepean	Leaning OLP	71%
11.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	Toss up OLP/PCPO	57%
12.	Kanata—Carleton	Toss up OLP/PCPO	52%
13.	Don Valley North	Toss up OLP/PCPO	50%
14.	Toronto Centre	Toss up OLP/NDP	30%
15.	Ajax	Leaning PCPO	19%
16.	York South—Weston	Leaning PCPO	16%
17.	Mississauga—Erin Mills	Leaning PCPO	16%
18.	Burlington	Leaning PCPO	14%
19.	Eglinton—Lawrence	Leaning PCPO	14%
20.	Willowdale	Leaning PCPO	12%
21.	Scarborough Centre	Leaning PCPO	12%
22.	Spadina—Fort York	Likely NDP	8%
23.	Mississauga East—Cooksville	Likely PCPO	7%
24.	Mississauga—Lakeshore	Likely PCPO	6%
25.	Oakville	Likely PCPO	5%
26.	Mississauga—Streetsville	Likely PCPO	5%
27.	Parkdale—High Park	Likely NDP	5%
28.	Peterborough—Kawartha	Likely PCPO	4%
29.	Mississauga Centre	Likely PCPO	3%
30.	Newmarket—Aurora	Likely PCPO	3%
31.	University—Rosedale	Likely NDP	3%
32.	Milton	Likely PCPO	3%
33.	Hamilton Mountain	Likely PCPO	3%
34.	Scarborough—Agincourt	Likely PCPO	3%
35.	Etobicoke Centre	Likely PCPO	2%
36.	Humber River—Black Creek	Likely PCPO	1%
37.	Scarborough—Rouge Park	Likely PCPO	1%