Ontario Liberal Party

Latest update: August 7, 2026

Leader	John Fraser (interim)
Popular vote in 2025	29.9%
Current vote projection	33.8% ± 4.2%
Current number of MPP	14
Current seat projection	33 [18-48]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | August 7, 2026

Seat projection | August 7, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party

	Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
1.	Kingston and the Islands Ted Hsu	L	Safe OLP
2.	Orléans Stephen Blais	L	Safe OLP
3.	Ottawa South John Fraser	L	Safe OLP
4.	Beaches—East York Mary-Margaret Mcmahon	L	Safe OLP
5.	Ottawa—Vanier Lucille Collard	L	Safe OLP
6.	Don Valley West Stephanie Bowman	L	Safe OLP
7.	Don Valley East Adil Shamji	L	Safe OLP
8.	Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Likely OLP
9.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Stephanie Smyth	L	Likely OLP
10.	Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
11.	Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Likely OLP
12.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Likely OLP
13.	Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Likely OLP
14.	Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Likely OLP
15.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Likely OLP
16.	Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Likely OLP
17.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Leaning OLP
18.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Leaning OLP
19.	Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Leaning OLP
20.	Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Leaning OLP
21.	Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Leaning OLP
22.	Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Leaning OLP
23.	Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Leaning OLP
24.	Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
25.	York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Leaning OLP
26.	Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
27.	Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
28.	Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
29.	Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
30.	Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
31.	Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
32.	Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
33.	Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
34.	Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
35.	Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
36.	Carleton George Darouze	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
37.	Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
38.	Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
39.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Neil Lumsden	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
40.	Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
41.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Leaning PCPO
42.	Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Leaning PCPO
43.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Leaning PCPO
44.	Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Leaning PCPO
45.	Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Leaning PCPO
46.	Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Leaning PCPO
47.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Leaning PCPO
48.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Leaning PCPO
49.	Toronto Centre Kristyn Wong-Tam	N	Leaning NDP
50.	Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Likely PCPO
51.	Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Toss up PC/NDP
52.	Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Likely PCPO
53.	Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Likely PCPO
54.	Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Likely PCPO
55.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Likely PCPO
56.	Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Likely PCPO
57.	Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Likely PCPO
58.	Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Likely PCPO
59.	Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Likely PCPO
60.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Likely PCPO
61.	Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
62.	Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Likely PCPO
63.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Likely PCPO
64.	Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Likely PCPO
65.	York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Likely PCPO
66.	Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Likely PCPO
67.	Spadina—Fort York Chris Glover	N	Likely NDP
68.	Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Likely PCPO
69.	Parkdale—High Park Alexa Gilmour	N	Likely NDP
70.	Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Likely PCPO
71.	Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Likely PCPO
72.	University—Rosedale Jessica Bell	N	Likely NDP
73.	Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Likely PCPO
74.	Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Likely PCPO
75.	Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Likely PCPO
76.	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Likely PCPO
77.	Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Likely PCPO
78.	Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Likely PCPO
79.	Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum	N	Likely NDP
80.	Etobicoke North Doug Ford	PC	Safe PCPO
81.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
82.	Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
83.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Sandy Shaw	N	Likely NDP
84.	Thornhill Laura Smith	PC	Safe PCPO
85.	Hamilton Centre Robin Lennox	N	Safe NDP
86.	King—Vaughan Stephen Lecce	PC	Safe PCPO
87.	Oxford Ernie Hardeman	PC	Safe PCPO
88.	York—Simcoe Caroline Mulroney	PC	Safe PCPO
89.	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Billy Denault	PC	Safe PCPO
90.	Brantford—Brant Will Bouma	PC	Safe PCPO
91.	Algoma—Manitoulin Bill Rosenberg	PC	Likely PCPO
92.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Lise Vaugeois	N	Likely NDP

Ontario Liberal Party

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Vote projection | August 7, 2026

Seat projection | August 7, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party