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Ontario

Ontario Liberal Party





Last update: March 5, 2024

LeaderBonnie Crombie
Popular vote in 202223.9%
Current vote projection29.4% ± 3.5%
Current number of MPP9
Current seat projection28 [11-44]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 5, 2024 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% Vote efficiency | OLP 338Canada ©2023 4.5 seat/% 28 [11-44] 29% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | March 5, 2024

22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2022 23.9% Min. 25.9% 29.4% ± 3.5% Max. 32.9% Probabilities % OLP

Seat projection | March 5, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 4% 3% 2% 1% 2022 8 seats Min. 11 28 Max. 44 Majority 63 seats Probabilities % OLP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Ottawa South Safe OLP >99%
2. Ottawa—Vanier Safe OLP >99%
3. Orléans Safe OLP >99%
4. Don Valley East Safe OLP >99%
5. Kingston and the Islands Likely OLP >99%
6. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP 99%
7. Beaches—East York Likely OLP 99%
8. Don Valley West Likely OLP 98%
9. Thunder Bay—Superior North Likely OLP 96%
10. Toronto—St. Paul’s Likely OLP 93%
11. Humber River—Black Creek Likely OLP 92%
12. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Leaning OLP 89%
13. Eglinton—Lawrence Leaning OLP 87%
14. Mississauga East—Cooksville Leaning OLP 82%
15. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Leaning OLP 81%
16. Toronto Centre Leaning OLP 80%
17. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Leaning OLP 77%
18. Mississauga—Erin Mills Leaning OLP 76%
19. Scarborough Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 67%
20. Willowdale Toss up OLP/PCPO 66%
21. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Toss up OLP/PCPO 64%
22. Milton Toss up OLP/PCPO 63%
23. Mississauga Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 62%
24. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO 62%
25. Nepean Toss up OLP/PCPO 59%
26. Mississauga—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 57%
27. Oakville Toss up OLP/PCPO 53%
28. Sudbury Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 52%
29. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up OLP/PCPO 46%
30. Peterborough—Kawartha Toss up OLP/PCPO 45%
31. University—Rosedale Toss up OLP/NDP 45%
32. Don Valley North Toss up OLP/PCPO 43%
33. Scarborough—Agincourt Toss up OLP/PCPO 39%
34. Kanata—Carleton Toss up OLP/PCPO 30%
35. Markham—Thornhill Leaning PCPO 27%
36. York Centre Leaning PCPO 24%
37. Etobicoke Centre Leaning PCPO 21%
38. Oakville North—Burlington Leaning PCPO 18%
39. Mississauga—Malton Leaning PCPO 17%
40. Markham—Stouffville Leaning PCPO 15%
41. York South—Weston Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 14%
42. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Leaning PCPO 13%
43. Spadina—Fort York Leaning NDP 11%
44. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 9%
45. Burlington Likely PCPO 9%
46. Scarborough North Likely PCPO 7%
47. London North Centre Leaning NDP 6%
48. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO 6%
49. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO 5%
50. Cambridge Likely PCPO 4%
51. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO 3%
52. Brampton North Likely PCPO 3%
53. Mushkegowuk—James Bay Toss up PCPO/NDP 3%
54. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up PCPO/NDP 2%
55. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Leaning NDP 2%
56. Brampton Centre Likely PCPO 2%
57. Richmond Hill Likely PCPO 2%
58. Brampton South Likely PCPO 1%