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Ontario

Ontario Liberal Party





Last update: June 27, 2025

LeaderBonnie Crombie
Popular vote in 202223.9%
Current vote projection30.0% ± 3.8%
Current number of MPP14
Current seat projection14 [9-29]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% Vote efficiency | OLP 338Canada Ontario 3.3 seat/% 14 [9-29] 30% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | June 27, 2025

22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2022 23.9% Min. 26.2% ▼ 30.0% ± 3.8% ▼ Max. 33.8% ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Seat projection | June 27, 2025

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2022 8 seats Min. 9 ▼ 14 ▼ Max. 29 ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Kingston and the Islands Safe OLP >99%
2. Ottawa South Safe OLP >99%
3. Ottawa—Vanier Safe OLP >99%
4. Beaches—East York Safe OLP >99%
5. Don Valley West Safe OLP >99%
6. Don Valley East Safe OLP >99%
7. Orléans Likely OLP >99%
8. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP 96%
9. Toronto—St. Paul’s Likely OLP 96%
10. Nepean Likely OLP 94%
11. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Leaning OLP 88%
12. Kanata—Carleton Leaning OLP 85%
13. Don Valley North Leaning OLP 81%
14. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO 53%
15. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO 48%
16. Burlington Toss up OLP/PCPO 48%
17. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 46%
18. York South—Weston Toss up OLP/PCPO 45%
19. Willowdale Toss up OLP/PCPO 40%
20. Scarborough Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 39%
21. Mississauga East—Cooksville Leaning PCPO 30%
22. Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO 28%
23. Oakville Leaning PCPO 27%
24. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO 25%
25. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO 23%
26. Newmarket—Aurora Leaning PCPO 19%
27. Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO 19%
28. Milton Leaning PCPO 18%
29. Etobicoke Centre Leaning PCPO 16%
30. Hamilton Mountain Leaning PCPO 16%
31. Scarborough—Agincourt Leaning PCPO 15%
32. Toronto Centre Leaning NDP 12%
33. Scarborough—Rouge Park Likely PCPO 10%
34. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO 9%
35. Whitby Likely PCPO 9%
36. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 9%
37. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 8%
38. Cambridge Likely PCPO 6%
39. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 4%
40. Carleton Likely PCPO 4%
41. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO 3%
42. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO 3%
43. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up PCPO/NDP 3%
44. Spadina—Fort York Likely NDP 2%
45. Kitchener—Conestoga Likely PCPO 1%
46. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Likely PCPO 1%
47. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Likely PCPO 1%