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Ontario Liberal Party

Latest update: March 20, 2026
LeaderJohn Fraser (interim)
Popular vote in 202529.9%
Current vote projection30.2% ± 3.9%
Current number of MPP14
Current seat projection14 [9-28]

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Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 20, 2026 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% Vote efficiency | OLP 338Canada Ontario 3.1 seat/% [9-28] 30% ± 4% 2018 2025
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | March 20, 2026

21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 26.3% ▼ 2025 30.0% 30.2% ± 3.9% ▼ Max. 34.1% ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Seat projection | March 20, 2026

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 9 ▼ 2025 14 seats 14 ▼ Max. 28 ▼ Probabilities % OLP

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party



Electoral districts Current party Projection
1.
Kingston and the Islands
Ted Hsu
 L Safe OLP
2.
Ottawa South
John Fraser
 L Safe OLP
3.
Ottawa—Vanier
Lucille Collard
 L Safe OLP
4.
Beaches—East York
Mary-Margaret Mcmahon
 L Safe OLP
5.
Don Valley East
Adil Shamji
 L Safe OLP
6.
Don Valley West
Stephanie Bowman
 L Safe OLP
7.
Orléans
Stephen Blais
 L Likely OLP
8.
Toronto—St. Paul’s
Stephanie Smyth
 L Likely OLP
9.
Scarborough—Guildwood
Andrea Hazell
 L Likely OLP
10.
Nepean
Tyler Watt
 L Likely OLP
11.
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
Lee Fairclough
 L Leaning OLP
12.
Kanata—Carleton
Karen Mccrimmon
 L Leaning OLP
13.
Don Valley North
Jonathan Tsao
 L Leaning OLP
14.
Ajax
Robert Cerjanec
 L Toss up OLP/PC
15.
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Sheref Sabawy
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
16.
Burlington
Natalie Pierre
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
17.
Eglinton—Lawrence
Michelle Cooper
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
18.
York South—Weston
Mohamed Firin
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
19.
Willowdale
Stan Cho
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
20.
Scarborough Centre
David Smith
 PC Toss up OLP/PC
21.
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Silvia Gualtieri
 PC Leaning PCPO
22.
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Rudy Cuzzetto
 PC Leaning PCPO
23.
Oakville
Stephen Crawford
 PC Leaning PCPO
24.
Mississauga—Streetsville
Nina Tangri
 PC Leaning PCPO
25.
Newmarket—Aurora
Dawn Gallagher Murphy
 PC Leaning PCPO
26.
Mississauga Centre
Natalia Kusendova
 PC Leaning PCPO
27.
Peterborough—Kawartha
Dave Smith
 PC Leaning PCPO
28.
Milton
Zee Hamid
 PC Leaning PCPO
29.
Etobicoke Centre
Kinga Surma
 PC Leaning PCPO
30.
Hamilton Mountain
Monica Ciriello
 PC Leaning PCPO
31.
Scarborough—Agincourt
Aris Babikian
 PC Leaning PCPO
32.
Pickering—Uxbridge
Peter Bethlenfalvy
 PC Likely PCPO
33.
Markham—Stouffville
Paul Calandra
 PC Likely PCPO
34.
Whitby
Lorne Coe
 PC Likely PCPO
35.
Oakville North—Burlington
Effie Triantafilopoulos
 PC Likely PCPO
36.
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Vijay Thanigasalam
 PC Likely PCPO
37.
Toronto Centre
Kristyn Wong-Tam
 N Likely NDP
38.
Mississauga—Malton
Deepak Anand
 PC Likely PCPO
39.
Cambridge
Brian Riddell
 PC Likely PCPO
40.
Markham—Thornhill
Logan Kanapathi
 PC Likely PCPO
41.
Carleton
George Darouze
 PC Likely PCPO
42.
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Neil Lumsden
 PC Likely PCPO
43.
Humber River—Black Creek
Tom Rakocevic
 N Toss up PC/NDP
44.
Kitchener—Conestoga
Mike Harris
 PC Likely PCPO
45.
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Doug Downey
 PC Likely PCPO
46.
Spadina—Fort York
Chris Glover
 N Likely NDP
47.
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Stéphane Sarrazin
 PC Likely PCPO
48.
Bay of Quinte
Tyler Allsopp
 PC Likely PCPO
49.
Brampton Centre
Charmaine Williams
 PC Likely PCPO
50.
Scarborough North
Raymond Cho
 PC Likely PCPO
51.
Parkdale—High Park
Alexa Gilmour
 N Likely NDP
52.
York Centre
Michael Kerzner
 PC Likely PCPO
53.
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Paul Vickers
 PC Likely PCPO
54.
University—Rosedale
Jessica Bell
 N Likely NDP
55.
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
John Jordan
 PC Likely PCPO
56.
Richmond Hill
Daisy Wai
 PC Safe PCPO
57.
Brampton South
Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria
 PC Safe PCPO
58.
Flamborough—Glanbrook
Donna Skelly
 PC Safe PCPO
59.
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Michael Parsa
 PC Safe PCPO
60.
Wellington—Halton Hills
Joseph Racinsky
 PC Safe PCPO
61.
Simcoe—Grey
Brian Saunderson
 PC Safe PCPO
62.
Northumberland—Peterborough South
David Piccini
 PC Safe PCPO
63.
Brampton East
Hardeep Grewal
 PC Safe PCPO
64.
Perth—Wellington
Matthew Rae
 PC Safe PCPO
65.
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Kevin Holland
 PC Safe PCPO
66.
Hamilton Centre
Robin Lennox
 N Safe NDP
67.
Brampton West
Amarjot Sandhu
 PC Safe PCPO
68.
Durham
Todd Mccarthy
 PC Safe PCPO
69.
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Ric Bresee
 PC Safe PCPO