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Ontario

Ontario Liberal Party





Last update: January 20, 2025

LeaderBonnie Crombie
Popular vote in 202223.9%
Current vote projection27.9% ± 3.6%
Current number of MPP9
Current seat projection17 [4-35]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% Vote efficiency | OLP 338Canada ©2023 4.1 seat/% 17 [4-35] 28% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | January 20, 2025

20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2022 23.9% Min. 24.3% ▼ 27.9% ± 3.6% ▼ Max. 31.5% ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Seat projection | January 20, 2025

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 4 ▼ 2022 8 seats 17 ▼ Max. 35 ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Ottawa South Safe OLP >99%
2. Ottawa—Vanier Safe OLP >99%
3. Orléans Likely OLP >99%
4. Don Valley East Likely OLP 98%
5. Kingston and the Islands Likely OLP 97%
6. Beaches—East York Likely OLP 94%
7. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP 91%
8. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning OLP 89%
9. Don Valley West Leaning OLP 82%
10. Toronto—St. Paul’s Leaning OLP 76%
11. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 68%
12. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 66%
13. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO 59%
14. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO 59%
15. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO 54%
16. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 53%
17. Toronto Centre Toss up OLP/NDP 52%
18. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 48%
19. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Toss up OLP/PCPO 45%
20. Mississauga Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 45%
21. Mississauga—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 42%
22. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Toss up OLP/PCPO 42%
23. Oakville Toss up OLP/PCPO 37%
24. Nepean Toss up OLP/PCPO 34%
25. Sudbury Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 32%
26. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO 28%
27. Scarborough Centre Leaning PCPO 27%
28. Willowdale Leaning PCPO 22%
29. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO 22%
30. Milton Leaning PCPO 21%
31. Bay of Quinte Leaning PCPO 20%
32. University—Rosedale Leaning NDP 19%
33. Markham—Thornhill Leaning PCPO 17%
34. Oakville North—Burlington Leaning PCPO 10%
35. Don Valley North Likely PCPO 9%
36. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 8%
37. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 8%
38. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO 7%
39. Kanata—Carleton Likely PCPO 6%
40. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 5%
41. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO 5%
42. Burlington Likely PCPO 4%
43. York Centre Likely PCPO 3%
44. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO 3%
45. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO 2%
46. Spadina—Fort York Likely NDP 2%
47. London North Centre Leaning NDP 2%
48. York South—Weston Leaning PCPO 2%
49. Pickering—Uxbridge Likely PCPO 2%
50. Brampton North Likely PCPO 2%
51. Cambridge Likely PCPO 1%