Ontario Liberal Party
Last update: March 5, 2024
Leader | Bonnie Crombie |
Popular vote in 2022 | 23.9% |
Current vote projection | 29.4% ± 3.5% |
Current number of MPP | 9 |
Current seat projection | 28 [11-44] |
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.
Vote projection | March 5, 2024
Seat projection | March 5, 2024
Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Ottawa South | Safe OLP | >99% | |||||||
2. | Ottawa—Vanier | Safe OLP | >99% | |||||||
3. | Orléans | Safe OLP | >99% | |||||||
4. | Don Valley East | Safe OLP | >99% | |||||||
5. | Kingston and the Islands | Likely OLP | >99% | |||||||
6. | Scarborough—Guildwood | Likely OLP | 99% | |||||||
7. | Beaches—East York | Likely OLP | 99% | |||||||
8. | Don Valley West | Likely OLP | 98% | |||||||
9. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | Likely OLP | 96% | |||||||
10. | Toronto—St. Paul’s | Likely OLP | 93% | |||||||
11. | Humber River—Black Creek | Likely OLP | 92% | |||||||
12. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | Leaning OLP | 89% | |||||||
13. | Eglinton—Lawrence | Leaning OLP | 87% | |||||||
14. | Mississauga East—Cooksville | Leaning OLP | 82% | |||||||
15. | Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte | Leaning OLP | 81% | |||||||
16. | Toronto Centre | Leaning OLP | 80% | |||||||
17. | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | Leaning OLP | 77% | |||||||
18. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | Leaning OLP | 76% | |||||||
19. | Scarborough Centre | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 67% | |||||||
20. | Willowdale | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 66% | |||||||
21. | Thunder Bay—Atikokan | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 64% | |||||||
22. | Milton | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 63% | |||||||
23. | Mississauga Centre | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 62% | |||||||
24. | Ajax | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 62% | |||||||
25. | Nepean | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 59% | |||||||
26. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 57% | |||||||
27. | Oakville | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 53% | |||||||
28. | Sudbury | Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP | 52% | |||||||
29. | Mississauga—Streetsville | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 46% | |||||||
30. | Peterborough—Kawartha | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 45% | |||||||
31. | University—Rosedale | Toss up OLP/NDP | 45% | |||||||
32. | Don Valley North | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 43% | |||||||
33. | Scarborough—Agincourt | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 39% | |||||||
34. | Kanata—Carleton | Toss up OLP/PCPO | 30% | |||||||
35. | Markham—Thornhill | Leaning PCPO | 27% | |||||||
36. | York Centre | Leaning PCPO | 24% | |||||||
37. | Etobicoke Centre | Leaning PCPO | 21% | |||||||
38. | Oakville North—Burlington | Leaning PCPO | 18% | |||||||
39. | Mississauga—Malton | Leaning PCPO | 17% | |||||||
40. | Markham—Stouffville | Leaning PCPO | 15% | |||||||
41. | York South—Weston | Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP | 14% | |||||||
42. | Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | Leaning PCPO | 13% | |||||||
43. | Spadina—Fort York | Leaning NDP | 11% | |||||||
44. | Newmarket—Aurora | Likely PCPO | 9% | |||||||
45. | Burlington | Likely PCPO | 9% | |||||||
46. | Scarborough North | Likely PCPO | 7% | |||||||
47. | London North Centre | Leaning NDP | 6% | |||||||
48. | Scarborough—Rouge Park | Likely PCPO | 6% | |||||||
49. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | Likely PCPO | 5% | |||||||
50. | Cambridge | Likely PCPO | 4% | |||||||
51. | Pickering—Uxbridge | Likely PCPO | 3% | |||||||
52. | Brampton North | Likely PCPO | 3% | |||||||
53. | Mushkegowuk—James Bay | Toss up PCPO/NDP | 3% | |||||||
54. | Ottawa West—Nepean | Toss up PCPO/NDP | 2% | |||||||
55. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | Leaning NDP | 2% | |||||||
56. | Brampton Centre | Likely PCPO | 2% | |||||||
57. | Richmond Hill | Likely PCPO | 2% | |||||||
58. | Brampton South | Likely PCPO | 1% |