Ontario Liberal Party

Latest update: November 3, 2026

Leader	John Fraser (interim)
Popular vote in 2025	29.9%
Current vote projection	32.2% ± 3.8%
Current number of MPP	14
Current seat projection	26 [14-39]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | November 3, 2026

Seat projection | November 3, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party

	Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
1.	Kingston and the Islands Ted Hsu	L	Safe OLP
2.	Ottawa South John Fraser	L	Safe OLP
3.	Beaches—East York Mary-Margaret Mcmahon	L	Safe OLP
4.	Ottawa—Vanier Lucille Collard	L	Safe OLP
5.	Don Valley East Adil Shamji	L	Safe OLP
6.	Orléans Stephen Blais	L	Safe OLP
7.	Don Valley West Stephanie Bowman	L	Safe OLP
8.	Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Likely OLP
9.	Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
10.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Stephanie Smyth	L	Likely OLP
11.	Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Likely OLP
12.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Likely OLP
13.	Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Leaning OLP
14.	Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Leaning OLP
15.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Leaning OLP
16.	Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Leaning OLP
17.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Leaning OLP
18.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Leaning OLP
19.	Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Leaning OLP
20.	Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
21.	Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
22.	Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
23.	Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
24.	York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
25.	Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
26.	Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
27.	Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
28.	Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
29.	Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
30.	Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
31.	Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
32.	Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
33.	Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Leaning PCPO
34.	Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Leaning PCPO
35.	Carleton George Darouze	PC	Leaning PCPO
36.	Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Leaning PCPO
37.	Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Leaning PCPO
38.	Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Leaning PCPO
39.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Leaning PCPO
40.	Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Leaning PCPO
41.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Leaning PCPO
42.	Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Leaning PCPO
43.	Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Leaning PCPO
44.	Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Toss up PC/NDP
45.	Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Likely PCPO
46.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Likely PCPO
47.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Likely PCPO
48.	Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Likely PCPO
49.	Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Likely PCPO
50.	Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Likely PCPO
51.	Toronto Centre Kristyn Wong-Tam	N	Likely NDP
52.	Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Leaning NDP
53.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Likely PCPO
54.	Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Likely PCPO
55.	Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Likely PCPO
56.	Scarborough Southwest Fatima Shaban	N	Likely NDP
57.	Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Likely PCPO
58.	Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Likely PCPO
59.	Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Likely PCPO
60.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Likely PCPO
61.	Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
62.	Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Likely PCPO
63.	Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Likely PCPO
64.	Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Likely PCPO
65.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Likely PCPO
66.	York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Likely PCPO
67.	Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Likely PCPO
68.	York—Simcoe Susan Lahey	PC	Likely PCPO
69.	Spadina—Fort York Chris Glover	N	Likely NDP
70.	Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Likely PCPO
71.	Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Likely PCPO
72.	Parkdale—High Park Alexa Gilmour	N	Safe NDP
73.	Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Safe PCPO
74.	Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Safe PCPO
75.	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Safe PCPO
76.	University—Rosedale Jessica Bell	N	Safe NDP
77.	Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Safe PCPO
78.	Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Safe PCPO
79.	Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
80.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
81.	Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
82.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Jeff Beattie	PC	Leaning PCPO

Ontario Liberal Party

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Vote projection | November 3, 2026

Seat projection | November 3, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party