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Last update: March 31, 2021
Leader | Steven Del Duca |
Popular vote in 2018 | 19.6% |
Current vote projection | 24.0% ± 4.3% |
Current number of MP's | 8 |
Current seat projection | 15 ± 13 |
Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Ontario Liberal Party
Rank | Electoral districts | Current party | Last projection | Odds of winning |
---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Ottawa—Vanier | OLP safe | >99% | |
2. | Thunder Bay—Superior North | OLP likely | >99% | |
3. | Ottawa South | OLP likely | >99% | |
4. | Orléans | OLP likely | 93% | |
5. | Ottawa Centre | OLP likely | 91% | |
6. | Don Valley East | OLP leaning | 89% | |
7. | Scarborough—Guildwood | OLP leaning | 82% | |
8. | Thunder Bay—Atikokan | OLP leaning | 81% | |
9. | Ottawa West—Nepean | OLP leaning | 76% | |
10. | Don Valley West | OLP leaning | 72% | |
11. | Eglinton—Lawrence | Toss up | 62% | |
12. | Toronto—St. Paul`s | Toss up | 50% | |
13. | Glengarry—Prescott—Russell | Toss up | 50% | |
14. | Kingston and the Islands | Toss up | 42% | |
15. | Humber River—Black Creek | Toss up | 42% | |
16. | Etobicoke Centre | Toss up | 38% | |
17. | Mississauga—Lakeshore | Toss up | 35% | |
18. | Mississauga East—Cooksville | Toss up | 34% | |
19. | Oakville | PCO leaning | 28% | |
20. | York South—Weston | Toss up | 27% | |
21. | Don Valley North | PCO leaning | 22% | |
22. | Milton | PCO leaning | 20% | |
23. | Toronto Centre | NDP leaning | 20% | |
24. | Peterborough—Kawartha | PCO leaning | 15% | |
25. | Beaches—East York | NDP leaning | 13% | |
26. | Etobicoke—Lakeshore | PCO leaning | 11% | |
27. | Mississauga Centre | PCO leaning | 11% | |
28. | Cambridge | ![]() |
PCO leaning | 11% |
29. | Spadina—Fort York | NDP likely | 9% | |
30. | Mississauga—Erin Mills | PCO likely | 9% | |
31. | Burlington | PCO likely | 8% | |
32. | Ajax | PCO likely | 7% | |
33. | Sudbury | NDP likely | 7% | |
34. | Mississauga—Streetsville | PCO likely | 4% | |
35. | University—Rosedale | NDP likely | 4% | |
36. | Scarborough Centre | PCO likely | 3% | |
37. | Scarborough—Agincourt | PCO likely | 3% | |
38. | Northumberland—Peterborough South | PCO likely | 2% | |
39. | St. Catharines | NDP leaning | 2% | |
40. | Kitchener Centre | NDP leaning | 2% | |
41. | Brampton North | Toss up | 2% | |
42. | Vaughan—Woodbridge | PCO likely | 2% | |
43. | Willowdale | PCO likely | 2% | |
44. | Markham—Stouffville | PCO likely | 2% | |
45. | Oakville North—Burlington | PCO likely | 1% | |
46. | Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | Toss up | 1% | |
47. | Scarborough—Rouge Park | PCO likely | 1% | |
48. | Mississauga—Malton | PCO likely | 1% | |
49. | Richmond Hill | PCO likely | <1% | |
50. | Markham—Thornhill | PCO likely | <1% | |
51. | Newmarket—Aurora | PCO likely | <1% |