Ontario Liberal Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Kingston and the Islands	Safe OLP	>99%
2.	Don Valley West	Safe OLP	>99%
3.	Don Valley East	Safe OLP	>99%
4.	Orléans	Safe OLP	>99%
5.	Ottawa South	Safe OLP	>99%
6.	Ottawa—Vanier	Safe OLP	>99%
7.	Beaches—East York	Safe OLP	>99%
8.	Nepean	Likely OLP	>99%
9.	Scarborough—Guildwood	Likely OLP	>99%
10.	Toronto—St. Paul’s	Likely OLP	99%
11.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	Likely OLP	99%
12.	Kanata—Carleton	Likely OLP	96%
13.	Don Valley North	Likely OLP	91%
14.	Ajax	Toss up OLP/PCPO	58%
15.	Mississauga—Erin Mills	Toss up OLP/PCPO	49%
16.	Burlington	Toss up OLP/PCPO	49%
17.	Eglinton—Lawrence	Toss up OLP/PCPO	47%
18.	York South—Weston	Toss up OLP/PCPO	46%
19.	Willowdale	Toss up OLP/PCPO	37%
20.	Scarborough Centre	Toss up OLP/PCPO	36%
21.	Mississauga East—Cooksville	Leaning PCPO	22%
22.	Mississauga—Lakeshore	Leaning PCPO	18%
23.	Oakville	Leaning PCPO	16%
24.	Mississauga—Streetsville	Leaning PCPO	15%
25.	Peterborough—Kawartha	Leaning PCPO	11%
26.	Mississauga Centre	Likely PCPO	10%
27.	Newmarket—Aurora	Likely PCPO	9%
28.	Hamilton Mountain	Likely PCPO	8%
29.	Scarborough—Agincourt	Likely PCPO	7%
30.	Milton	Likely PCPO	7%
31.	Etobicoke Centre	Likely PCPO	6%
32.	Scarborough—Rouge Park	Likely PCPO	3%
33.	Toronto Centre	Likely NDP	2%
34.	Pickering—Uxbridge	Likely PCPO	1%
35.	Markham—Stouffville	Likely PCPO	1%
36.	Whitby	Likely PCPO	1%