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Ontario

Ontario Liberal Party





Last update: February 20, 2025

LeaderBonnie Crombie
Popular vote in 202223.9%
Current vote projection27.6% ± 3.6%
Current number of MPP9
Current seat projection13 [4-25]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% Vote efficiency | OLP 338Canada Ontario 3.2 seat/% 14 [4-25] 28% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | February 20, 2025

20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 24.0% ▼ 2022 23.9% 27.6% ± 3.6% ▼ Max. 31.2% ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Seat projection | February 20, 2025

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 4 ▼ 2022 8 seats 13 ▼ Max. 25 ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Ottawa South Safe OLP >99%
2. Ottawa—Vanier Safe OLP >99%
3. Beaches—East York Likely OLP >99%
4. Kingston and the Islands Likely OLP 98%
5. Orléans Likely OLP 95%
6. Don Valley East Leaning OLP 83%
7. Toronto—St. Paul’s Leaning OLP 73%
8. Toronto Centre Leaning OLP 71%
9. Don Valley West Toss up OLP/PCPO 64%
10. Scarborough—Guildwood Toss up OLP/PCPO 57%
11. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 56%
12. University—Rosedale Toss up OLP/NDP 53%
13. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO 52%
14. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 50%
15. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 49%
16. Mississauga—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 47%
17. Ajax Toss up OLP/PCPO 46%
18. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 44%
19. Mississauga Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO 35%
20. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO 22%
21. Oakville Leaning PCPO 21%
22. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 20%
23. Spadina—Fort York Leaning NDP 16%
24. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Leaning PCPO 16%
25. Milton Leaning PCPO 15%
26. Markham—Thornhill Leaning PCPO 13%
27. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Leaning PCPO 10%
28. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Likely PCPO 8%
29. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 8%
30. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 6%
31. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 6%
32. Kanata—Carleton Likely PCPO 5%
33. Nepean Likely PCPO 5%
34. Peterborough—Kawartha Likely PCPO 5%
35. Newmarket—Aurora Likely PCPO 3%
36. Burlington Likely PCPO 3%
37. Scarborough Centre Likely PCPO 2%
38. Willowdale Likely PCPO 2%
39. Vaughan—Woodbridge Likely PCPO 2%
40. Don Valley North Likely PCPO 1%