338Canada.com - Ontario - Ontario Liberal Party





Last update: May 19, 2021

LeaderSteven Del Duca
Popular vote in 201819.6%
Current vote projection27.7% ± 4.5%
Current number of MP's8
Current seat projection33 ± 22



Ranked list of electoral districts favourable to the Ontario Liberal Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Ottawa—Vanier OLP safe >99%
2. Ottawa South OLP safe >99%
3. Thunder Bay—Superior North OLP safe >99%
4. Orléans OLP safe >99%
5. Don Valley East OLP safe >99%
6. Ottawa West—Nepean OLP likely >99%
7. Scarborough—Guildwood OLP likely >99%
8. Don Valley West OLP likely 99%
9. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell OLP likely 97%
10. Eglinton—Lawrence OLP likely 96%
11. Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP likely 94%
12. Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP likely 93%
13. Thunder Bay—Atikokan OLP likely 91%
14. Ottawa Centre OLP likely 90%
15. Etobicoke Centre OLP likely 90%
16. Oakville OLP leaning 84%
17. Mississauga—Erin Mills OLP leaning 82%
18. Milton OLP leaning 82%
19. Don Valley North OLP leaning 81%
20. Toronto—St. Paul`s OLP leaning 76%
21. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up 70%
22. Burlington Toss up 68%
23. Kingston and the Islands Toss up 66%
24. Ajax Toss up 61%
25. Cambridge Toss up 59%
26. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up 58%
27. Vaughan—Woodbridge Toss up 58%
28. Markham—Stouffville Toss up 58%
29. Scarborough Centre Toss up 57%
30. York South—Weston Toss up 57%
31. Oakville North—Burlington Toss up 56%
32. Peterborough—Kawartha Toss up 53%
33. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up 52%
34. Willowdale Toss up 52%
35. Northumberland—Peterborough South Toss up 49%
36. Mississauga—Malton Toss up 47%
37. Richmond Hill Toss up 43%
38. Toronto Centre Toss up 42%
39. Scarborough—Rouge Park Toss up 41%
40. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up 40%
41. Markham—Thornhill Toss up 38%
42. Pickering—Uxbridge Toss up 33%
43. Beaches—East York Toss up 32%
44. Scarborough—Agincourt PCO leaning 28%
45. Spadina—Fort York NDP leaning 26%
46. Sudbury NDP leaning 24%
47. Brampton South PCO leaning 20%
48. St. Catharines NDP leaning 18%
49. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP leaning 17%
50. Brampton North NDP leaning 17%
51. Kitchener Centre NDP leaning 17%
52. Mississauga Centre PCO leaning 14%
53. Scarborough North PCO leaning 14%
54. York Centre PCO leaning 12%
55. University—Rosedale NDP leaning 12%
56. Brampton West Toss up 12%
57. King—Vaughan PCO leaning 11%
58. Nepean PCO likely 7%
59. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PCO likely 6%
60. Brampton Centre Toss up 5%
61. Scarborough Southwest NDP likely 2%
62. Carleton PCO likely 2%
63. Kiiwetinoong NDP likely 2%
64. Simcoe North PCO likely 2%
65. Kanata—Carleton PCO likely 2%
66. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up <1%
67. Durham PCO likely <1%
68. Etobicoke North PCO likely <1%
69. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO leaning <1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Ottawa—Vanier OLP safe
2. Ottawa South OLP safe
3. Thunder Bay—Superior North OLP safe
4. Orléans OLP safe
5. Don Valley East OLP safe
6. Ottawa West—Nepean OLP likely
7. Scarborough—Guildwood OLP likely
8. Don Valley West OLP likely
9. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell OLP likely
10. Eglinton—Lawrence OLP likely
11. Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP likely
12. Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP likely
13. Thunder Bay—Atikokan OLP likely
14. Ottawa Centre OLP likely
15. Etobicoke Centre OLP likely
16. Oakville OLP leaning
17. Mississauga—Erin Mills OLP leaning
18. Milton OLP leaning
19. Don Valley North OLP leaning
20. Toronto—St. Paul`s OLP leaning
21. Mississauga—Streetsville Toss up
22. Burlington Toss up
23. Kingston and the Islands Toss up
24. Ajax Toss up
25. Cambridge Toss up
26. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up
27. Vaughan—Woodbridge Toss up
28. Markham—Stouffville Toss up
29. Scarborough Centre Toss up
30. York South—Weston Toss up
31. Oakville North—Burlington Toss up
32. Peterborough—Kawartha Toss up
33. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up
34. Willowdale Toss up
35. Northumberland—Peterborough South Toss up
36. Mississauga—Malton Toss up
37. Richmond Hill Toss up
38. Toronto Centre Toss up
39. Scarborough—Rouge Park Toss up
40. Newmarket—Aurora Toss up
41. Markham—Thornhill Toss up
42. Pickering—Uxbridge Toss up
43. Beaches—East York Toss up
44. Scarborough—Agincourt PCO leaning
45. Spadina—Fort York NDP leaning
46. Sudbury NDP leaning
47. Brampton South PCO leaning
48. St. Catharines NDP leaning
49. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP leaning
50. Brampton North NDP leaning
51. Kitchener Centre NDP leaning
52. Mississauga Centre PCO leaning
53. Scarborough North PCO leaning
54. York Centre PCO leaning
55. University—Rosedale NDP leaning
56. Brampton West Toss up
57. King—Vaughan PCO leaning
58. Nepean PCO likely
59. Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PCO likely
60. Brampton Centre Toss up
61. Scarborough Southwest NDP likely
62. Carleton PCO likely
63. Kiiwetinoong NDP likely
64. Simcoe North PCO likely
65. Kanata—Carleton PCO likely
66. Kitchener South—Hespeler Toss up
67. Durham PCO likely
68. Etobicoke North PCO likely
69. Flamborough—Glanbrook PCO leaning



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