Ontario Liberal Party

Latest update: May 24, 2026

Leader	John Fraser (interim)
Popular vote in 2025	29.9%
Current vote projection	35.1% ± 4.0%
Current number of MPP	14
Current seat projection	39 [25-53]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | May 24, 2026

Seat projection | May 24, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party

	Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
1.	Kingston and the Islands Ted Hsu	L	Safe OLP
2.	Don Valley West Stephanie Bowman	L	Safe OLP
3.	Don Valley East Adil Shamji	L	Safe OLP
4.	Orléans Stephen Blais	L	Safe OLP
5.	Ottawa South John Fraser	L	Safe OLP
6.	Beaches—East York Mary-Margaret Mcmahon	L	Safe OLP
7.	Ottawa—Vanier Lucille Collard	L	Safe OLP
8.	Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Safe OLP
9.	Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Likely OLP
10.	Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
11.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Stephanie Smyth	L	Likely OLP
12.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Likely OLP
13.	Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Likely OLP
14.	Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Likely OLP
15.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Likely OLP
16.	Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Likely OLP
17.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Likely OLP
18.	Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Likely OLP
19.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Likely OLP
20.	Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Likely OLP
21.	Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Likely OLP
22.	Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Leaning OLP
23.	Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Leaning OLP
24.	Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
25.	York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Leaning OLP
26.	Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Leaning OLP
27.	Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Leaning OLP
28.	Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Leaning OLP
29.	Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Leaning OLP
30.	Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Leaning OLP
31.	Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
32.	Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Leaning OLP
33.	Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Leaning OLP
34.	Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
35.	Carleton George Darouze	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
36.	Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
37.	Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
38.	Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
39.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Neil Lumsden	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
40.	Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
41.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
42.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
43.	Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
44.	Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
45.	Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
46.	Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Leaning PCPO
47.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Leaning PCPO
48.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Leaning PCPO
49.	Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Leaning PCPO
50.	Toronto Centre Kristyn Wong-Tam	N	Leaning NDP
51.	Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Leaning PCPO
52.	Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Leaning PCPO
53.	Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Leaning PCPO
54.	Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Toss up OLP/PC/NDP
55.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Leaning PCPO
56.	Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Leaning PCPO
57.	Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Leaning PCPO
58.	Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Leaning PCPO
59.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Likely PCPO
60.	Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Likely PCPO
61.	Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Likely PCPO
62.	Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
63.	Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Likely PCPO
64.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Likely PCPO
65.	York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Likely PCPO
66.	Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Likely PCPO
67.	Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Likely PCPO
68.	Spadina—Fort York Chris Glover	N	Likely NDP
69.	Parkdale—High Park Alexa Gilmour	N	Likely NDP
70.	Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Likely PCPO
71.	Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Likely PCPO
72.	University—Rosedale Jessica Bell	N	Likely NDP
73.	Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Likely PCPO
74.	Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Likely PCPO
75.	Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Likely PCPO
76.	Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Likely PCPO
77.	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Likely PCPO
78.	Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Likely PCPO
79.	Scarborough Southwest Doly Begum	N	Likely NDP
80.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
81.	Brantford—Brant Will Bouma	PC	Safe PCPO
82.	Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
83.	Etobicoke North Doug Ford	PC	Safe PCPO
84.	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Sandy Shaw	N	Likely NDP
85.	Oxford Ernie Hardeman	PC	Safe PCPO
86.	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Billy Denault	PC	Safe PCPO
87.	Thornhill Laura Smith	PC	Safe PCPO
88.	Thunder Bay—Superior North Lise Vaugeois	N	Likely NDP
89.	King—Vaughan Stephen Lecce	PC	Safe PCPO
90.	Hamilton Centre Robin Lennox	N	Safe NDP
91.	Algoma—Manitoulin Bill Rosenberg	PC	Likely PCPO
92.	Vaughan—Woodbridge Michael Tibollo	PC	Safe PCPO
93.	Sarnia—Lambton Bob Bailey	PC	Safe PCPO
94.	York—Simcoe Caroline Mulroney	PC	Safe PCPO

Ontario Liberal Party

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Vote projection | May 24, 2026

Seat projection | May 24, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party