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Ontario

Ontario Liberal Party





Last update: November 12, 2024

LeaderBonnie Crombie
Popular vote in 202223.9%
Current vote projection26.5% ± 3.3%
Current number of MPP9
Current seat projection12 [3-27]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% Vote efficiency | OLP 338Canada ©2023 3.2 seat/% 12 [3-27] 26% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | November 12, 2024

19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 23.1% ▼ 2022 23.9% 26.5% ± 3.3% ▼ Max. 29.8% ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Seat projection | November 12, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 3 ▼ 2022 8 seats 12 ▼ Max. 27 ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Ottawa South Safe OLP >99%
2. Ottawa—Vanier Safe OLP >99%
3. Orléans Likely OLP 99%
4. Don Valley East Likely OLP 98%
5. Kingston and the Islands Likely OLP 97%
6. Beaches—East York Likely OLP 95%
7. Scarborough—Guildwood Leaning OLP 89%
8. Don Valley West Leaning OLP 79%
9. Toronto—St. Paul’s Leaning OLP 79%
10. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning OLP 79%
11. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 65%
12. Toronto Centre Toss up OLP/NDP 55%
13. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 48%
14. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 42%
15. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO 39%
16. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 37%
17. Mississauga—Erin Mills Leaning PCPO 28%
18. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Leaning PCPO 26%
19. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Leaning PCPO 25%
20. Ajax Leaning PCPO 24%
21. Sudbury Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 23%
22. Scarborough Centre Leaning PCPO 22%
23. University—Rosedale Leaning NDP 21%
24. Willowdale Leaning PCPO 18%
25. Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO 18%
26. Nepean Leaning PCPO 17%
27. Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO 16%
28. Oakville Leaning PCPO 13%
29. Peterborough—Kawartha Likely PCPO 10%
30. Bay of Quinte Likely PCPO 8%
31. Mississauga—Streetsville Likely PCPO 8%
32. Don Valley North Likely PCPO 7%
33. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO 5%
34. Milton Likely PCPO 5%
35. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO 4%
36. Spadina—Fort York Likely NDP 3%
37. York Centre Likely PCPO 3%
38. Kanata—Carleton Likely PCPO 2%
39. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO 2%
40. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 2%
41. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO 1%
42. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 1%
43. York South—Weston Leaning PCPO 1%
44. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 1%