logo
logo
Ontario

Ontario Liberal Party





Last update: June 30, 2024

LeaderBonnie Crombie
Popular vote in 202223.9%
Current vote projection26.3% ± 3.3%
Current number of MPP9
Current seat projection12 [4-28]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 30, 2024 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% Vote efficiency | OLP 338Canada ©2023 3.2 seat/% 12 [4-28] 26% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | June 30, 2024

19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 23.0% ▼ 2022 23.9% 26.3% ± 3.3% ▼ Max. 29.7% ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Seat projection | June 30, 2024

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 4 ▼ 2022 8 seats 12 ▼ Max. 28 ▼ Probabilities % OLP

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Ottawa South Safe OLP >99%
2. Ottawa—Vanier Safe OLP >99%
3. Orléans Likely OLP 99%
4. Don Valley East Likely OLP 99%
5. Kingston and the Islands Likely OLP 94%
6. Beaches—East York Likely OLP 93%
7. Scarborough—Guildwood Likely OLP 92%
8. Don Valley West Leaning OLP 84%
9. Thunder Bay—Superior North Leaning OLP 80%
10. Toronto—St. Paul’s Leaning OLP 73%
11. Humber River—Black Creek Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 65%
12. Etobicoke—Lakeshore Toss up OLP/PCPO 56%
13. Eglinton—Lawrence Toss up OLP/PCPO 50%
14. Toronto Centre Toss up OLP/NDP 47%
15. Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Toss up OLP/PCPO 43%
16. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up OLP/PCPO 41%
17. Mississauga—Erin Mills Toss up OLP/PCPO 33%
18. Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Leaning PCPO 30%
19. Thunder Bay—Atikokan Leaning PCPO 28%
20. Ajax Leaning PCPO 28%
21. Scarborough Centre Leaning PCPO 28%
22. Willowdale Leaning PCPO 24%
23. Mississauga Centre Leaning PCPO 21%
24. Nepean Leaning PCPO 21%
25. Sudbury Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP 20%
26. Mississauga—Lakeshore Leaning PCPO 19%
27. University—Rosedale Leaning NDP 16%
28. Oakville Leaning PCPO 16%
29. Peterborough—Kawartha Leaning PCPO 12%
30. Mississauga—Streetsville Leaning PCPO 10%
31. Don Valley North Likely PCPO 10%
32. Scarborough—Agincourt Likely PCPO 7%
33. Milton Likely PCPO 6%
34. Markham—Thornhill Likely PCPO 5%
35. York Centre Likely PCPO 4%
36. Etobicoke Centre Likely PCPO 2%
37. Kanata—Carleton Likely PCPO 2%
38. Oakville North—Burlington Likely PCPO 2%
39. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Likely PCPO 2%
40. Mississauga—Malton Likely PCPO 2%
41. Spadina—Fort York Likely NDP 2%
42. Markham—Stouffville Likely PCPO 2%
43. York South—Weston Leaning PCPO 2%