Ontario Liberal Party

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party

Rank	Electoral districts	Last projection	Odds of winning
1.	Ottawa South	Safe OLP	>99%
2.	Ottawa—Vanier	Safe OLP	>99%
3.	Orléans	Likely OLP	98%
4.	Kingston and the Islands	Likely OLP	96%
5.	Don Valley East	Likely OLP	92%
6.	Beaches—East York	Likely OLP	90%
7.	Thunder Bay—Superior North	Leaning OLP	76%
8.	Scarborough—Guildwood	Leaning OLP	73%
9.	Toronto—St. Paul’s	Toss up OLP/NDP	67%
10.	Don Valley West	Toss up OLP/PCPO	58%
11.	Humber River—Black Creek	Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP	44%
12.	Toronto Centre	Toss up OLP/NDP	41%
13.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte	Toss up OLP/PCPO	36%
14.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore	Leaning PCPO	26%
15.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	Leaning PCPO	24%
16.	Thunder Bay—Atikokan	Leaning PCPO	23%
17.	Eglinton—Lawrence	Leaning PCPO	22%
18.	Sudbury	Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP	21%
19.	Mississauga East—Cooksville	Leaning PCPO	18%
20.	Nepean	Leaning PCPO	16%
21.	University—Rosedale	Leaning NDP	13%
22.	Mississauga—Erin Mills	Leaning PCPO	12%
23.	Ajax	Likely PCPO	10%
24.	Scarborough Centre	Likely PCPO	9%
25.	Peterborough—Kawartha	Likely PCPO	8%
26.	Bay of Quinte	Likely PCPO	8%
27.	Willowdale	Likely PCPO	7%
28.	Mississauga Centre	Likely PCPO	6%
29.	Mississauga—Lakeshore	Likely PCPO	6%
30.	Oakville	Likely PCPO	4%
31.	Mississauga—Streetsville	Likely PCPO	2%
32.	Don Valley North	Likely PCPO	2%
33.	Kanata—Carleton	Likely PCPO	2%
34.	Scarborough—Agincourt	Likely PCPO	1%
35.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	Likely PCPO	1%
36.	Spadina—Fort York	Likely NDP	1%
37.	Milton	Likely PCPO	1%