Ontario Liberal Party

Latest update: September 3, 2026

Leader	John Fraser (interim)
Popular vote in 2025	29.9%
Current vote projection	33.5% ± 3.9%
Current number of MPP	14
Current seat projection	32 [19-45]

Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.

Vote projection | September 3, 2026

Seat projection | September 3, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party

	Electoral districts	Current party	Projection
1.	Kingston and the Islands Ted Hsu	L	Safe OLP
2.	Don Valley West Stephanie Bowman	L	Safe OLP
3.	Don Valley East Adil Shamji	L	Safe OLP
4.	Ottawa South John Fraser	L	Safe OLP
5.	Beaches—East York Mary-Margaret Mcmahon	L	Safe OLP
6.	Ottawa—Vanier Lucille Collard	L	Safe OLP
7.	Orléans Stephen Blais	L	Safe OLP
8.	Nepean Tyler Watt	L	Likely OLP
9.	Scarborough—Guildwood Andrea Hazell	L	Likely OLP
10.	Kanata—Carleton Karen Mccrimmon	L	Likely OLP
11.	Toronto—St. Paul’s Stephanie Smyth	L	Likely OLP
12.	Etobicoke—Lakeshore Lee Fairclough	L	Likely OLP
13.	Ajax Robert Cerjanec	L	Likely OLP
14.	Burlington Natalie Pierre	PC	Likely OLP
15.	Mississauga—Erin Mills Sheref Sabawy	PC	Likely OLP
16.	Don Valley North Jonathan Tsao	L	Likely OLP
17.	Mississauga East—Cooksville Silvia Gualtieri	PC	Leaning OLP
18.	Mississauga—Lakeshore Rudy Cuzzetto	PC	Leaning OLP
19.	Oakville Stephen Crawford	PC	Leaning OLP
20.	Mississauga—Streetsville Nina Tangri	PC	Leaning OLP
21.	Newmarket—Aurora Dawn Gallagher Murphy	PC	Leaning OLP
22.	Milton Zee Hamid	PC	Leaning OLP
23.	Mississauga Centre Natalia Kusendova	PC	Leaning OLP
24.	Peterborough—Kawartha Dave Smith	PC	Leaning OLP
25.	York South—Weston Mohamed Firin	PC	Leaning OLP
26.	Eglinton—Lawrence Michelle Cooper	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
27.	Whitby Lorne Coe	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
28.	Pickering—Uxbridge Peter Bethlenfalvy	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
29.	Willowdale Stan Cho	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
30.	Scarborough Centre David Smith	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
31.	Oakville North—Burlington Effie Triantafilopoulos	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
32.	Markham—Stouffville Paul Calandra	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
33.	Cambridge Brian Riddell	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
34.	Mississauga—Malton Deepak Anand	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
35.	Carleton George Darouze	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
36.	Etobicoke Centre Kinga Surma	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
37.	Markham—Thornhill Logan Kanapathi	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
38.	Scarborough—Agincourt Aris Babikian	PC	Toss up OLP/PC
39.	Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Stéphane Sarrazin	PC	Leaning PCPO
40.	Scarborough—Rouge Park Vijay Thanigasalam	PC	Leaning PCPO
41.	Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Doug Downey	PC	Leaning PCPO
42.	Kitchener—Conestoga Mike Harris	PC	Leaning PCPO
43.	Bay of Quinte Tyler Allsopp	PC	Leaning PCPO
44.	Hamilton Mountain Monica Ciriello	PC	Toss up OLP/PC/NDP
45.	Brampton Centre Charmaine Williams	PC	Leaning PCPO
46.	Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Paul Vickers	PC	Leaning PCPO
47.	Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston John Jordan	PC	Leaning PCPO
48.	Flamborough—Glanbrook Donna Skelly	PC	Likely PCPO
49.	Richmond Hill Daisy Wai	PC	Likely PCPO
50.	Brampton South Prabmeet Singh Sarkaria	PC	Likely PCPO
51.	Northumberland—Peterborough South David Piccini	PC	Likely PCPO
52.	Toronto Centre Kristyn Wong-Tam	N	Likely NDP
53.	Hastings—Lennox and Addington Ric Bresee	PC	Likely PCPO
54.	Perth—Wellington Matthew Rae	PC	Likely PCPO
55.	Humber River—Black Creek Tom Rakocevic	N	Leaning NDP
56.	Wellington—Halton Hills Joseph Racinsky	PC	Likely PCPO
57.	Simcoe—Grey Brian Saunderson	PC	Likely PCPO
58.	Brampton East Hardeep Grewal	PC	Likely PCPO
59.	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Michael Parsa	PC	Likely PCPO
60.	Scarborough Southwest Fatima Shaban	N	Likely NDP
61.	Scarborough North Raymond Cho	PC	Likely PCPO
62.	Brampton West Amarjot Sandhu	PC	Likely PCPO
63.	Durham Todd Mccarthy	PC	Likely PCPO
64.	Kitchener South—Hespeler Jess Dixon	PC	Likely PCPO
65.	Thunder Bay—Atikokan Kevin Holland	PC	Likely PCPO
66.	York Centre Michael Kerzner	PC	Likely PCPO
67.	Huron—Bruce Lisa Thompson	PC	Likely PCPO
68.	York—Simcoe Susan Lahey	PC	Likely PCPO
69.	Brampton North Graham Mcgregor	PC	Likely PCPO
70.	Spadina—Fort York Chris Glover	N	Likely NDP
71.	Simcoe North Jill Dunlop	PC	Likely PCPO
72.	Parkdale—High Park Alexa Gilmour	N	Likely NDP
73.	Niagara West Sam Oosterhoff	PC	Likely PCPO
74.	Markham—Unionville Billy Pang	PC	Likely PCPO
75.	Barrie—Innisfil Andrea Khanjin	PC	Likely PCPO
76.	Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes Steve Clark	PC	Likely PCPO
77.	Lambton—Kent—Middlesex Stephen Pinsonneault	PC	Likely PCPO
78.	University—Rosedale Jessica Bell	N	Likely NDP
79.	Dufferin—Caledon Sylvia Jones	PC	Safe PCPO
80.	Brantford—Brant Will Bouma	PC	Safe PCPO
81.	Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock Laurie Scott	PC	Safe PCPO
82.	Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Jeff Beattie	PC	Leaning PCPO
83.	Elgin—Middlesex—London Rob Flack	PC	Safe PCPO
84.	Thornhill Laura Smith	PC	Safe PCPO
85.	Etobicoke North Doug Ford	PC	Safe PCPO
86.	Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Billy Denault	PC	Safe PCPO

Ontario Liberal Party

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Vote projection | September 3, 2026

Seat projection | September 3, 2026

List of favourable electoral districts | Ontario Liberal Party