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Recent electoral history | Peterborough—Kawartha


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 42% ± 9% 37.5% 38.5% 40.5% OLP 35% ± 9% 24.6% 30.6% 36.4% NDP 17% ± 6% 33.9% 21.4% 17.2% GPO 3% ± 2% 3.4% 3.7% 3.1% NBPO 2% ± 1% 0.0% 2.1% 1.6% ONP 1% ± 1% 0.0% 3.8% 1.2%

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338Canada Peterborough—Kawartha projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Peterborough—Kawartha 34% 51% 42% ± 9% PC 27% 44% 35% ± 9% OLP 11% 23% 17% ± 6% NDP PC 2025 40.49% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Peterborough—Kawartha 88%▼ PC 12%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Peterborough—Kawartha

OLP 35% ± 9% PC 42% ± 9% NDP 17% ± 6% GPO 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Peterborough—Kawartha 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 39% OLP 33% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 40% OLP 33% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 42% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 42% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 42% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 42% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 42% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 43% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 43% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 43% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 43% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 43% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 43% OLP 33% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 43% OLP 33% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 43% OLP 33% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 43% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 43% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 43% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 43% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 44% OLP 34% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 40% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 41% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 41% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 42% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 45% OLP 35% NDP 14% GPO 3% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 45% OLP 36% NDP 14% GPO 3% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 44% OLP 35% NDP 15% GPO 3% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 43% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 43% OLP 35% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 42% OLP 35% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Peterborough—Kawartha

OLP 12% PC 88% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 77% OLP 23% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2026-02-18