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Ontario

Peterborough—Kawartha


MPP: Smith, Dave (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Peterborough—Kawartha


PC Party of Ontario Dave Smith
Liberal Party Adam Hopkins
Ontario NDP Jen Deck
Green Party Lucas Graham
New Blue Party Andrew Roudny
Ontario Party Brian Martindale

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Peterborough—Kawartha 44% ± 9%▲ PCPO 34% ± 8% OLP 16% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 38.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Peterborough—Kawartha 95%▲ PCPO 5%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Peterborough—Kawartha

OLP 34% ± 8% PCPO 44% ± 9% NDP 16% ± 6% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Peterborough—Kawartha 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 39% OLP 33% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 40% OLP 33% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 42% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 42% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 43% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 43% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 43% OLP 32% NDP 18% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 43% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 43% OLP 35% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 43% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 43% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 44% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Peterborough—Kawartha

OLP 5% PCPO 95% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 92% OLP 8% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 95% OLP 5% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Peterborough—Kawartha



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 30.7% 37.5% 38.5% 44% ± 9% OLP 45.7% 24.6% 30.6% 34% ± 8% NDP 18.1% 33.9% 21.4% 16% ± 6% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 2% ± 2% GPO 4.3% 3.4% 3.7% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 1% ± 1%