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Ontario

Peterborough—Kawartha


MPP: Smith, Dave (PCPO)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Likely PCPO
Peterborough—Kawartha 40% ± 9%▲ PCPO 32% ± 8% OLP 20% ± 6%▲ NDP 5% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 38.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Peterborough—Kawartha 92%▲ PCPO 8%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Peterborough—Kawartha

OLP 32% ± 8% PCPO 40% ± 9% NDP 20% ± 6% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Peterborough—Kawartha 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 37% OLP 36% NDP 19% GPO 3% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 26% GPO 3% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 35% OLP 33% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 35% OLP 33% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 35% OLP 33% NDP 24% GPO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 37% OLP 33% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 37% OLP 32% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 37% OLP 32% NDP 25% GPO 3% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 36% OLP 32% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 36% OLP 31% NDP 25% GPO 4% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 36% OLP 31% NDP 25% GPO 5% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 36% OLP 31% NDP 25% GPO 5% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 36% OLP 31% NDP 25% GPO 5% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 36% OLP 31% NDP 25% GPO 5% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 32% OLP 32% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 32% OLP 32% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 33% OLP 31% NDP 24% GPO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 23% GPO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 23% GPO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 23% GPO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 34% OLP 31% NDP 23% GPO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 38% OLP 31% NDP 21% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 38% OLP 31% NDP 22% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 38% OLP 32% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 38% OLP 32% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 38% OLP 32% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 38% OLP 31% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 34% OLP 32% NDP 22% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 22% GPO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 35% OLP 32% NDP 22% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 36% OLP 32% NDP 22% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 33% OLP 33% NDP 22% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 35% OLP 31% NDP 22% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 38% OLP 31% NDP 22% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 37% OLP 33% NDP 21% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 37% OLP 33% NDP 21% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 36% PCPO 34% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 37% OLP 34% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 37% OLP 33% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 38% OLP 32% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 40% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 39% OLP 32% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 39% OLP 32% NDP 19% GPO 5% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 40% OLP 32% NDP 20% GPO 5% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Peterborough—Kawartha

OLP 8% PCPO 92% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 53% OLP 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 69% OLP 30% NDP 2% GPO <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 70% OLP 30% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 70% OLP 30% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 68% OLP 32% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 66% OLP 34% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 62% OLP 37% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 58% OLP 42% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 68% OLP 32% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 68% OLP 32% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 70% OLP 30% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 70% OLP 30% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 66% OLP 34% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 78% OLP 22% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 82% OLP 18% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 81% OLP 18% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 82% OLP 18% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 80% OLP 19% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 84% OLP 16% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 51% OLP 48% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 51% OLP 48% NDP 1% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 63% OLP 37% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 69% OLP 31% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 69% OLP 31% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 69% OLP 31% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 70% OLP 30% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 73% OLP 27% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 91% OLP 9% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 87% OLP 13% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 84% OLP 16% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 85% OLP 15% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 89% OLP 11% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 71% OLP 29% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 71% OLP 29% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 78% OLP 22% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 73% OLP 27% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 67% PCPO 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 88% OLP 12% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 92% OLP 8% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Peterborough—Kawartha



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 30.7% 37.5% 38.5% 40% ± 9% OLP 45.7% 24.6% 30.6% 32% ± 8% NDP 18.1% 33.9% 21.4% 20% ± 6% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 2% ± 2% GPO 4.3% 3.4% 3.7% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 1% ± 1%