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Ontario

Toronto, 25 districts



Safe Likely Leaning Toss up Projected ahead Last election (2022)
3 7 3 2 15 4
4 1 0 1 6 9
0 1 2 1 4 12
0 0 0 0 0 0




Projection | Toronto


Latest update: February 20, 2024
Toronto 39% ± 6%▲ 28% ± 5%▼ 25% ± 5%▼ 5% ± 2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2024
This projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. This is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and modelization of various data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
Toronto, 25 districts 15▲ [12-17] 6▼ [5-8] 4▼ [2-7] 0 [0-0] 338Canada seat projection | February 20, 2024
The seat projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held today. The brackets indicate the current ranges from worst to best possible outcomes. The distributions follow Gaussian-like curves, so the extremes are not as likely as the values near the mean. Does it work? See 338Canada's full record here.

Popular vote projection | Toronto

OLP 39% ± 6% PCPO 28% ± 5% NDP 25% ± 5% GPO 5% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Toronto 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Seat projection | Toronto

OLP 15 [12-17] PCPO 4 [2-7] NDP 6 [5-8] Seat projection | Toronto 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP

List of electoral districts


Latest update: February 20, 2024
Electoral district Current party Latest projection
007 Beaches—East York Likely OLP
019 Davenport Safe NDP
020 Don Valley East Safe OLP
021 Don Valley North Leaning OLP
022 Don Valley West Safe OLP
025 Eglinton—Lawrence Likely OLP
028 Etobicoke Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO
029 Etobicoke North Likely PCPO
030 Etobicoke—Lakeshore Likely OLP
041 Humber River—Black Creek Likely OLP
085 Parkdale—High Park Safe NDP
094 Scarborough Centre Likely OLP
095 Scarborough North Leaning PCPO
096 Scarborough Southwest Safe NDP
097 Scarborough—Agincourt Leaning OLP
098 Scarborough—Guildwood Safe OLP
099 Scarborough—Rouge Park Leaning PCPO
102 Spadina—Fort York Likely NDP
111 Toronto Centre Leaning OLP
112 Toronto—Danforth Safe NDP
113 Toronto—St. Paul’s Likely OLP
114 University—Rosedale Toss up OLP/NDP
119 Willowdale Likely OLP
122 York Centre Toss up OLP/PCPO
123 York South—Weston Toss up OLP/PCPO/NDP