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Ontario

Mushkegowuk—James Bay


MPP: Bourgouin, Guy (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Toss up PCPO/NDP

Candidates | Mushkegowuk—James Bay


PC Party of Ontario Dave Plourde
Liberal Party Kyle Allen
Ontario NDP Guy Bourgouin
Green Party Catherine Jones

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Mushkegowuk—James Bay 41% ± 14%▼ PCPO 41% ± 14%▲ NDP 16% ± 10% OLP NDP 2022 47.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mushkegowuk—James Bay 50%▼ PCPO 50%▲ NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mushkegowuk—James Bay

OLP 16% ± 10% PCPO 41% ± 14% NDP 41% ± 14% Popular vote projection % | Mushkegowuk—James Bay 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 41% PCPO 40% OLP 15% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 40% PCPO 40% OLP 15% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 14% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 41% NDP 40% OLP 15% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 15% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 15% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 15% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 15% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 15% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 15% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 15% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 43% NDP 37% OLP 15% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 44% NDP 38% OLP 16% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 16% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 16% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 41% NDP 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 41% NDP 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 41% NDP 41% OLP 16% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Mushkegowuk—James Bay

OLP <1% PCPO 50% NDP 50% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 NDP 55% PCPO 45% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 53% PCPO 47% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 58% NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 60% NDP 40% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 57% NDP 43% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 65% NDP 35% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 64% NDP 36% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 71% NDP 29% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 75% NDP 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 76% NDP 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 64% NDP 36% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 61% NDP 39% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 52% NDP 48% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 53% NDP 47% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 59% NDP 41% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 50% NDP 50% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Mushkegowuk—James Bay



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 60.3% 51.8% 47.2% 41% ± 14% PCPO 7.7% 30.2% 35.8% 41% ± 14% OLP 30.3% 14.1% 11.7% 16% ± 10% GPO 1.4% 1.8% 1.9% 3% ± 4%