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Recent electoral history | Mushkegowuk—James Bay


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 47% ± 16% 51.8% 47.2% 45.4% PC 44% ± 16% 30.2% 35.8% 45.4% OLP 7% ± 8% 14.1% 11.7% 7.7% GPO 1% ± 3% 1.8% 1.9% 1.5%

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338Canada Mushkegowuk—James Bay projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Mushkegowuk—James Bay 31% 64% 47% ± 16% NDP 28% 61% 44% ± 16% PC -1% 15% 7% ± 8% OLP NDP 2025 45.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mushkegowuk—James Bay 61%▲ NDP 39%▼ PC <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Mushkegowuk—James Bay

OLP 7% ± 8% PC 44% ± 16% NDP 47% ± 16% Popular vote projection % | Mushkegowuk—James Bay 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 41% PC 40% OLP 15% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 40% PC 40% OLP 15% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 42% NDP 40% OLP 14% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 42% NDP 40% OLP 14% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 41% NDP 40% OLP 15% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 15% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 15% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 43% NDP 38% OLP 15% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 43% NDP 38% OLP 15% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 15% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 14% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 15% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 43% NDP 38% OLP 15% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 43% NDP 37% OLP 15% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 44% NDP 38% OLP 16% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 16% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 42% NDP 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 16% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 41% NDP 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 41% NDP 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 42% NDP 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 41% NDP 41% OLP 16% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 41% PC 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 41% PC 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 41% PC 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 41% PC 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 41% PC 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 41% NDP 40% OLP 16% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 41% PC 41% OLP 16% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 45% PC 45% OLP 8% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 46% NDP 45% OLP 8% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 46% NDP 45% OLP 8% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 47% NDP 44% OLP 8% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 52% NDP 39% OLP 8% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 50% NDP 41% OLP 7% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 48% NDP 44% OLP 7% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 47% PC 45% OLP 7% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 47% PC 45% OLP 7% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 47% PC 44% OLP 7% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Mushkegowuk—James Bay

OLP <1% PC 39% NDP 61% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 NDP 55% PC 45% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 NDP 53% PC 47% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 58% NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 60% NDP 40% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 57% NDP 43% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 65% NDP 35% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 64% NDP 36% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 66% NDP 34% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 71% NDP 29% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 75% NDP 25% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 76% NDP 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 64% NDP 36% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 61% NDP 39% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 52% NDP 48% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 53% NDP 47% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 59% NDP 41% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 50% NDP 50% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 NDP 50% PC 50% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 NDP 52% PC 48% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 NDP 52% PC 48% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 NDP 52% PC 48% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 NDP 53% PC 47% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 55% NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 NDP 50% PC 50% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 51% PC 49% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 53% NDP 47% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 53% NDP 47% OLP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 60% NDP 40% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 87% NDP 13% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 80% NDP 20% OLP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 64% NDP 36% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 55% PC 45% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 57% PC 43% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 61% PC 39% OLP <1% 2026-02-18