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Ontario

Mushkegowuk—James Bay


MPP: Bourgouin, Guy (NDP)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Toss up PCPO/NDP
Mushkegowuk—James Bay 39% ± 13%▲ NDP 36% ± 13%▲ PCPO 19% ± 10%▼ OLP 3% ± 4% GPO 3% ± 4% NBPO NDP 2022 47.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Mushkegowuk—James Bay 62%▼ NDP 38%▲ PCPO <1%▼ OLP Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Mushkegowuk—James Bay

OLP 19% ± 10% PCPO 36% ± 13% NDP 39% ± 13% Popular vote projection % | Mushkegowuk—James Bay 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP

Odds of winning | Mushkegowuk—James Bay

OLP <1% PCPO 38% NDP 62% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Mushkegowuk—James Bay



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 60.3% 51.8% 47.2% 39% ± 13% PCPO 7.7% 30.2% 35.8% 36% ± 13% OLP 30.3% 14.1% 11.7% 19% ± 10% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3% ± 4% GPO 1.4% 1.8% 1.9% 3% ± 4%