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Ontario

Toronto—St. Paul’s


MPP elect: Stephanie Smyth (OLP)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Likely OLP

Candidates | Toronto—St. Paul’s


PC Party of Ontario Riley Braunstein
Liberal Party Stephanie Smyth
Ontario NDP Jill Andrew
Green Party Chloe Tangpongprush

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Toronto—St. Paul’s 41% ± 0%▲ OLP 32% ± 0% NDP 25% ± 0%▼ PCPO NDP 2022 36.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto—St. Paul’s 99%▲ OLP 1%▼ NDP <1%▼ PCPO Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Toronto—St. Paul’s

OLP 41% ± 0% PCPO 25% ± 0% NDP 32% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Toronto—St. Paul’s 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 36% NDP 31% PCPO 25% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 25% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 27% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 34% NDP 31% PCPO 28% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 27% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 36% NDP 30% PCPO 27% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 36% NDP 30% PCPO 27% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 35% NDP 29% PCPO 28% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 35% NDP 29% PCPO 28% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 35% NDP 30% PCPO 28% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 34% NDP 30% PCPO 28% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 35% NDP 30% PCPO 28% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 36% NDP 29% PCPO 28% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 36% NDP 28% PCPO 28% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 37% NDP 29% PCPO 28% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 34% NDP 31% PCPO 29% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 34% NDP 30% PCPO 29% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 34% NDP 30% PCPO 29% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 28% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 28% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 28% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 28% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 35% NDP 33% PCPO 26% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 34% NDP 33% PCPO 26% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 34% NDP 33% PCPO 26% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 34% NDP 33% PCPO 26% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 34% NDP 33% PCPO 26% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 34% NDP 32% PCPO 27% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 34% NDP 32% PCPO 27% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 41% NDP 32% PCPO 25% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Toronto—St. Paul’s

OLP 99% NDP 1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 79% NDP 20% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 79% NDP 20% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 73% NDP 22% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 73% NDP 22% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 76% NDP 21% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 84% NDP 12% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 84% NDP 12% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 82% NDP 12% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 82% NDP 12% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 82% NDP 13% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 74% NDP 21% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 79% NDP 15% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 86% NDP 9% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 90% NDP 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 90% NDP 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 70% NDP 21% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 71% NDP 20% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 72% NDP 20% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 76% NDP 20% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 74% NDP 20% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 72% NDP 20% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 73% NDP 20% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 64% NDP 35% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 57% NDP 41% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 57% NDP 41% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 57% NDP 42% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 57% NDP 42% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 61% NDP 36% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 62% NDP 35% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 99% NDP 1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Toronto—St. Paul’s



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 10.5% 36.0% 36.3% 32% ± 0% OLP 59.2% 33.4% 33.7% 41% ± 0% PCPO 24.0% 26.3% 22.4% 25% ± 0% GPO 5.2% 3.2% 5.5% 2% ± 0%