logo
Ontario

Toronto—St. Paul’s


MPP: Andrew, Jill (NDP)

Latest projection: May 3, 2024
Leaning OLP
Toronto—St. Paul’s 37% ± 9%▼ OLP 32% ± 9%▼ NDP 22% ± 7%▲ PCPO 7% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 36.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | May 3, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto—St. Paul’s 82%▲ OLP 18%▼ NDP <1% PCPO Odds of winning | May 3, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Toronto—St. Paul’s

OLP 37% ± 9% PCPO 22% ± 7% NDP 32% ± 9% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Toronto—St. Paul’s 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Toronto—St. Paul’s

OLP 82% PCPO <1% NDP 18% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Toronto—St. Paul’s



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 10.5% 36.0% 36.3% 32% ± 9% OLP 59.2% 33.4% 33.7% 37% ± 9% PCPO 24.0% 26.3% 22.4% 22% ± 7% GPO 5.2% 3.2% 5.5% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0% ± 1%