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Ontario

Toronto—St. Paul’s


MPP: Andrew, Jill (NDP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Leaning OLP

Candidates | Toronto—St. Paul’s


PC Party of Ontario Riley Braunstein
Liberal Party Stephanie Smyth
Ontario NDP Jill Andrew
Green Party Chloe Tangpongprush

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Toronto—St. Paul’s 35% ± 9% OLP 31% ± 8% NDP 28% ± 8% PCPO 6% ± 4% GPO NDP 2022 36.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Toronto—St. Paul’s 73%▲ OLP 20% NDP 7%▼ PCPO Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Toronto—St. Paul’s

OLP 35% ± 9% PCPO 28% ± 8% NDP 31% ± 8% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Toronto—St. Paul’s 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 36% NDP 31% PCPO 25% GPO 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 25% GPO 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 27% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 34% NDP 31% PCPO 28% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 27% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 36% NDP 30% PCPO 27% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 36% NDP 30% PCPO 27% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 35% NDP 29% PCPO 28% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 35% NDP 29% PCPO 28% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 35% NDP 30% PCPO 28% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 34% NDP 30% PCPO 28% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 35% NDP 30% PCPO 28% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 36% NDP 29% PCPO 28% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 36% NDP 28% PCPO 28% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 37% NDP 29% PCPO 28% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 34% NDP 31% PCPO 29% GPO 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 34% NDP 30% PCPO 29% GPO 7% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 34% NDP 30% PCPO 29% GPO 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 28% GPO 7% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 28% GPO 7% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 28% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 35% NDP 31% PCPO 28% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Toronto—St. Paul’s

OLP 73% PCPO 7% NDP 20% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 79% NDP 20% PCPO 1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 79% NDP 20% PCPO 1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 OLP 73% NDP 22% PCPO 5% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 OLP 73% NDP 22% PCPO 5% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 76% NDP 21% PCPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 84% NDP 12% PCPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 84% NDP 12% PCPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 OLP 82% NDP 12% PCPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 OLP 82% NDP 12% PCPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 OLP 82% NDP 13% PCPO 5% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 OLP 74% NDP 21% PCPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 OLP 79% NDP 15% PCPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 OLP 86% NDP 9% PCPO 5% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 90% NDP 6% PCPO 5% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 90% NDP 6% PCPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 70% NDP 21% PCPO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 71% NDP 20% PCPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 72% NDP 20% PCPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 76% NDP 20% PCPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 74% NDP 20% PCPO 5% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 72% NDP 20% PCPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 73% NDP 20% PCPO 7% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Toronto—St. Paul’s



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 10.5% 36.0% 36.3% 31% ± 8% OLP 59.2% 33.4% 33.7% 35% ± 9% PCPO 24.0% 26.3% 22.4% 28% ± 8% GPO 5.2% 3.2% 5.5% 6% ± 4%