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Recent electoral history | Chatham-Kent—Leamington


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 54% ± 9% 51.9% 47.6% 52.0% OLP 18% ± 6% 8.1% 0.0% 18.4% NDP 17% ± 6% 35.7% 30.2% 17.1% NBPO 8% ± 5% 0.0% 4.0% 7.9% GPO 3% ± 2% 3.5% 3.4% 2.9% ONP 2% ± 2% 0.0% 14.8% 1.6%

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338Canada Chatham-Kent—Leamington projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Chatham-Kent—Leamington 45% 63% 54% ± 9% PC 11% 24% 18% ± 6% OLP 10% 23% 17% ± 6% NDP 3% 12% 8% ± 5% NBPO PC 2025 52.02% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chatham-Kent—Leamington >99% PC <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Chatham-Kent—Leamington

OLP 18% ± 6% PC 54% ± 9% NDP 17% ± 6% NBPO 8% ± 5% Popular vote projection % | Chatham-Kent—Leamington 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP NBPO February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 54% NDP 29% OLP 1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 54% NDP 29% OLP 1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 59% NDP 28% OLP 1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 59% NDP 28% OLP 1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 58% NDP 28% OLP 2% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 60% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 60% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 60% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 60% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 60% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 59% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 60% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 61% NDP 25% OLP 2% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 61% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 61% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 62% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 62% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 62% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 61% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 61% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 62% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 62% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 62% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 62% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 62% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 62% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 62% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 63% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 63% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 52% OLP 18% NDP 17% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 52% OLP 18% NDP 17% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 52% OLP 18% NDP 17% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 53% OLP 18% NDP 17% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 57% OLP 17% NDP 14% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 57% OLP 18% NDP 13% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 56% OLP 17% NDP 15% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 54% OLP 17% NDP 16% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 54% OLP 18% NDP 16% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 54% OLP 18% NDP 17% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Chatham-Kent—Leamington

OLP <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2026-02-18