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Ontario

Chatham-Kent—Leamington


MPP : Trevor Jones (PCPO)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Safe PCPO

Recent electoral history | Chatham-Kent—Leamington


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 37.0% 51.9% 47.6% 52% ± 9% NDP 32.7% 35.7% 30.2% 17% ± 6% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8% ± 4% GPO 5.2% 3.5% 3.4% 3% ± 2% OLP 23.8% 8.1% 0.0% 18% ± 6%

Chatham-Kent—Leamington 52% ± 9% PCPO 18% ± 6% OLP 17% ± 6% NDP 8% ± 4% NBPO PCPO 2022 47.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Chatham-Kent—Leamington >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Chatham-Kent—Leamington

OLP 18% ± 6% PCPO 52% ± 9% NDP 17% ± 6% NBPO 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Chatham-Kent—Leamington 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP NBPO June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 54% NDP 29% OLP 1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 54% NDP 29% OLP 1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 59% NDP 28% OLP 1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 59% NDP 28% OLP 1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 58% NDP 28% OLP 2% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 60% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 60% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 60% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 60% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 60% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 59% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 60% NDP 26% OLP 2% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 61% NDP 25% OLP 2% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 61% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 61% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 62% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 62% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 62% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 61% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 61% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 62% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 62% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 62% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 62% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 62% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 62% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 62% NDP 24% OLP 2% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 63% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 63% NDP 23% OLP 2% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 52% OLP 18% NDP 17% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO 52% OLP 18% NDP 17% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO 52% OLP 18% NDP 17% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Chatham-Kent—Leamington

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-06-27