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Ontario

Sault Ste. Marie


MPP: Romano, Ross (PCPO)

Latest projection: October 9, 2024
Likely PCPO
Sault Ste. Marie 49% ± 10%▼ PCPO 30% ± 9%▲ NDP 9% ± 5% OLP 4% ± 3% GPO 3% ± 3% NBPO PCPO 2022 46.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | October 9, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sault Ste. Marie >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | October 9, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sault Ste. Marie

OLP 9% ± 5% PCPO 49% ± 10% NDP 30% ± 9% Popular vote projection % | Sault Ste. Marie 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP October 9, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 44% NDP 26% OLP 17% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 43% NDP 27% OLP 17% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 17% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 17% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 17% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 42% NDP 28% OLP 17% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 42% NDP 28% OLP 18% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 42% NDP 27% OLP 18% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 42% NDP 28% OLP 18% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 43% NDP 27% OLP 17% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 43% NDP 27% OLP 17% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 43% NDP 27% OLP 17% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 43% NDP 27% OLP 17% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 17% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 17% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 42% NDP 26% OLP 20% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 42% NDP 30% OLP 16% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 41% NDP 30% OLP 16% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 40% NDP 30% OLP 15% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 40% NDP 30% OLP 15% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 40% NDP 30% OLP 15% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 41% NDP 30% OLP 15% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 41% NDP 30% OLP 15% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 40% NDP 29% OLP 15% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 40% NDP 29% OLP 15% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 11% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 41% NDP 33% OLP 11% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 41% NDP 33% OLP 11% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 39% NDP 34% OLP 11% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 11% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 41% NDP 34% OLP 10% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 47% NDP 37% OLP 6% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 46% NDP 38% OLP 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 47% NDP 36% OLP 6% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 47% NDP 36% OLP 7% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 47% NDP 36% OLP 7% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 47% NDP 36% OLP 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 43% NDP 39% OLP 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 43% NDP 39% OLP 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 44% NDP 38% OLP 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 45% NDP 38% OLP 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 7% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 44% NDP 39% OLP 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 47% NDP 37% OLP 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 46% NDP 37% OLP 7% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 46% NDP 37% OLP 7% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 41% NDP 30% OLP 18% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 43% NDP 28% OLP 17% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 44% NDP 29% OLP 16% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 48% NDP 31% OLP 10% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 48% NDP 31% OLP 9% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 50% NDP 29% OLP 9% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 49% NDP 30% OLP 9% 2024-10-09

Odds of winning | Sault Ste. Marie

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO October 9, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 95% NDP 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 84% NDP 16% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 90% NDP 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 90% NDP 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 79% NDP 21% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 80% NDP 20% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 88% NDP 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 88% NDP 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 95% NDP 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 95% NDP 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 95% NDP 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 93% NDP 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 71% NDP 29% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 73% NDP 27% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 80% NDP 20% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 83% NDP 17% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 65% NDP 35% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 78% NDP 22% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 91% NDP 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 89% NDP 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 91% NDP 9% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09

Recent electoral history | Sault Ste. Marie



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 12.4% 42.0% 46.9% 49% ± 10% NDP 25.5% 40.7% 37.3% 30% ± 9% OLP 58.5% 10.0% 6.0% 9% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 3% ± 3% GPO 3.2% 3.3% 2.5% 4% ± 3%