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Ontario

Sault Ste. Marie


MPP: Romano, Ross (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Sault Ste. Marie


PC Party of Ontario Chris Scott
Liberal Party Gurwinder Dusanjh
Ontario NDP Lisa Vezeau-Allen
Green Party Jaycob Jacques
New Blue Party Arnold Heino
Ontario Party Paul Frolich

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Sault Ste. Marie 48% ± 10%▼ PCPO 31% ± 9%▲ NDP 14% ± 6%▲ OLP 4% ± 3%▲ GPO PCPO 2022 46.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sault Ste. Marie >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sault Ste. Marie

OLP 14% ± 6% PCPO 48% ± 10% NDP 31% ± 9% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Sault Ste. Marie 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 51% NDP 31% OLP 7% GPO 3% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 51% NDP 30% OLP 7% GPO 3% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 55% NDP 30% OLP 7% GPO 3% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 55% NDP 30% OLP 7% GPO 3% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 55% NDP 30% OLP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 56% NDP 28% OLP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 56% NDP 28% OLP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 57% NDP 27% OLP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 57% NDP 28% OLP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 56% NDP 28% OLP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 56% NDP 28% OLP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 56% NDP 28% OLP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 57% NDP 27% OLP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 58% NDP 26% OLP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 57% NDP 28% OLP 8% GPO 3% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 58% NDP 27% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 58% NDP 27% OLP 9% GPO 3% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 58% NDP 27% OLP 9% GPO 3% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 57% NDP 28% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 57% NDP 28% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 58% NDP 27% OLP 9% GPO 3% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 48% NDP 31% OLP 14% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Sault Ste. Marie

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Sault Ste. Marie



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 12.4% 42.0% 46.9% 48% ± 10% NDP 25.5% 40.7% 37.3% 31% ± 9% OLP 58.5% 10.0% 6.0% 14% ± 6% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 2% ± 2% GPO 3.2% 3.3% 2.5% 4% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2%