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Ontario

Humber River—Black Creek


MPP elect: Tom Rakocevic (NDP)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Toss up PCPO/NDP

Candidates | Humber River—Black Creek


PC Party of Ontario Paul Nguyen
Liberal Party Liban Hassan
Ontario NDP Tom Rakocevic
Green Party Alexander Qanbery
Communist Parti Jeanne Mcguire

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Humber River—Black Creek 35% ± 0%▲ NDP 35% ± 0%▲ PCPO 27% ± 0%▼ OLP NDP 2022 34.4% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Humber River—Black Creek 57%▲ NDP 42%▲ PCPO 1%▼ OLP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Humber River—Black Creek

OLP 27% ± 0% PCPO 35% ± 0% NDP 35% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Humber River—Black Creek 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 33% PCPO 33% NDP 29% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 29% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 36% OLP 32% NDP 28% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 36% OLP 32% NDP 28% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 35% OLP 33% NDP 28% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 36% OLP 32% NDP 28% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 36% OLP 34% NDP 26% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 37% OLP 34% NDP 26% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 35% OLP 33% NDP 30% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 30% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 34% OLP 33% NDP 30% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 34% PCPO 33% NDP 31% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 34% PCPO 33% NDP 30% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 30% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 34% OLP 34% NDP 30% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 33% PCPO 32% NDP 32% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 33% NDP 32% PCPO 32% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 33% NDP 32% PCPO 32% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 33% NDP 32% PCPO 32% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 33% NDP 32% PCPO 32% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 33% PCPO 33% NDP 32% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 33% PCPO 33% NDP 32% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 35% PCPO 35% OLP 27% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Humber River—Black Creek

OLP 1% PCPO 42% NDP 57% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 47% PCPO 45% NDP 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 48% OLP 45% NDP 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 69% OLP 27% NDP 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 71% OLP 25% NDP 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 65% OLP 30% NDP 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 65% OLP 33% NDP 2% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 65% OLP 34% NDP 2% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 73% OLP 26% NDP 1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 72% OLP 27% NDP 1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 68% OLP 31% NDP 2% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 75% OLP 22% NDP 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 73% OLP 25% NDP 2% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 69% OLP 30% NDP 1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 67% OLP 32% NDP 1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 67% OLP 32% NDP 1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 59% OLP 32% NDP 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 49% OLP 39% NDP 11% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 50% OLP 40% NDP 11% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 50% PCPO 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 49% PCPO 37% NDP 14% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 45% OLP 43% NDP 12% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 45% OLP 44% NDP 12% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 42% PCPO 29% NDP 29% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 40% PCPO 30% NDP 30% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 40% NDP 31% PCPO 30% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 39% NDP 31% PCPO 30% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 39% NDP 31% PCPO 30% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 39% PCPO 36% NDP 25% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 41% PCPO 36% NDP 24% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 57% PCPO 42% OLP 1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Humber River—Black Creek



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 39.2% 37.4% 34.4% 35% ± 0% OLP 46.7% 27.9% 30.5% 27% ± 0% PCPO 11.0% 30.3% 30.0% 35% ± 0% GPO 1.6% 1.6% 1.9% 2% ± 0%