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Recent electoral history | Humber River—Black Creek


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 37% ± 10% 37.4% 34.4% 35.3% PC 32% ± 10% 30.3% 30.0% 34.5% OLP 29% ± 9% 27.9% 30.5% 27.4% GPO 1% ± 2% 1.6% 1.9% 1.6%

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338Canada Humber River—Black Creek projection

Latest update: September 3, 2026

Humber River—Black Creek 27% 48% 37% ± 10% NDP 22% 41% 32% ± 10% PC 19% 38% 29% ± 9% OLP NDP 2025 35.34% 338Canada Popular vote projection | September 3, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Humber River—Black Creek 79%▲ NDP 17% PC 4%▼ OLP Odds of winning | September 3, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Humber River—Black Creek

Odds of winning | Humber River—Black Creek