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Recent electoral history | Humber River—Black Creek


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 37% ± 11% 37.4% 34.4% 35.3% PC 34% ± 10% 30.3% 30.0% 34.5% OLP 25% ± 9% 27.9% 30.5% 27.4% GPO 2% ± 2% 1.6% 1.9% 1.6%

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338Canada Humber River—Black Creek projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Humber River—Black Creek 27% 48% 37% ± 11% NDP 25% 44% 34% ± 10% PC 16% 34% 25% ± 9% OLP NDP 2025 35.34% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Humber River—Black Creek 67%▲ NDP 32%▼ PC 1% OLP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Humber River—Black Creek

OLP 25% ± 9% PC 34% ± 10% NDP 37% ± 11% Popular vote projection % | Humber River—Black Creek 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 OLP 33% PC 33% NDP 29% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 34% OLP 33% NDP 29% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 36% OLP 32% NDP 28% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 36% OLP 32% NDP 28% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 35% OLP 33% NDP 28% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 36% OLP 32% NDP 28% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 36% OLP 33% NDP 27% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 36% OLP 34% NDP 26% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 37% OLP 34% NDP 26% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 35% OLP 33% NDP 30% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 34% OLP 33% NDP 30% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 34% OLP 33% NDP 30% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 34% PC 33% NDP 31% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 34% PC 33% NDP 30% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 34% OLP 34% NDP 30% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 34% OLP 34% NDP 30% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 33% PC 32% NDP 32% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 33% NDP 32% PC 32% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 33% NDP 32% PC 32% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 33% NDP 32% PC 32% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 33% NDP 32% PC 32% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 33% PC 33% NDP 32% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 33% PC 33% NDP 32% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 35% PC 35% OLP 27% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 35% NDP 35% OLP 27% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 35% NDP 35% OLP 28% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 36% NDP 34% OLP 27% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 40% NDP 31% OLP 27% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 39% NDP 32% OLP 27% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 37% NDP 35% OLP 26% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 37% PC 35% OLP 25% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 37% PC 35% OLP 25% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 37% PC 34% OLP 25% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Humber River—Black Creek

OLP 1% PC 32% NDP 67% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 OLP 47% PC 45% NDP 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 48% OLP 45% NDP 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 69% OLP 27% NDP 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 71% OLP 25% NDP 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 65% OLP 30% NDP 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 65% OLP 33% NDP 2% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 65% OLP 34% NDP 2% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 73% OLP 26% NDP 1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 72% OLP 27% NDP 1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 68% OLP 31% NDP 2% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 75% OLP 22% NDP 3% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 73% OLP 25% NDP 2% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 69% OLP 30% NDP 1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 67% OLP 32% NDP 1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 67% OLP 32% NDP 1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 59% OLP 32% NDP 9% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 49% OLP 39% NDP 11% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 50% OLP 40% NDP 11% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 50% PC 35% NDP 14% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 49% PC 37% NDP 14% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 45% OLP 43% NDP 12% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 45% OLP 44% NDP 12% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 42% PC 29% NDP 29% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 40% PC 30% NDP 30% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 40% NDP 31% PC 30% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 39% NDP 31% PC 30% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 39% NDP 31% PC 30% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 39% PC 36% NDP 25% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 41% PC 36% NDP 24% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 57% PC 42% OLP 1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 49% NDP 48% OLP 3% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 49% NDP 48% OLP 3% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 57% NDP 41% OLP 2% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 91% NDP 8% OLP 1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 83% NDP 16% OLP 1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 64% NDP 36% OLP 1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 62% PC 38% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 63% PC 36% OLP 1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 67% PC 32% OLP 1% 2026-02-18