logo
Ontario

Recent electoral history | Humber River—Black Creek


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 36% ± 10% 37.4% 34.4% 35.3% PC 31% ± 10% 30.3% 30.0% 34.5% OLP 30% ± 10% 27.9% 30.5% 27.4% GPO 2% ± 2% 1.6% 1.9% 1.6%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Ontario flag

338Canada Humber River—Black Creek projection

Latest update: April 29, 2026

Humber River—Black Creek 25% 46% 36% ± 10% NDP 22% 41% 31% ± 10% PC 20% 40% 30% ± 10% OLP NDP 2025 35.34% 338Canada Popular vote projection | April 29, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Humber River—Black Creek 68%▼ NDP 20%▼ PC 13%▲ OLP Odds of winning | April 29, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Humber River—Black Creek

Odds of winning | Humber River—Black Creek