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Recent electoral history | Don Valley North


2018 2022 2025 Projection OLP 43% ± 10% 30.9% 36.8% 43.8% PC 39% ± 10% 44.4% 47.5% 37.6% IND 10% ± 6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% NDP 5% ± 4% 20.9% 9.8% 5.1% GPO 2% ± 2% 2.5% 3.7% 2.6% NBPO 1% ± 2% 0.0% 2.2% 1.1%

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338Canada Don Valley North projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Don Valley North 32% 53% 43% ± 10% OLP 29% 49% 39% ± 10% PC 3% 16% 10% ± 6% IND 1% 8% 5% ± 4% NDP OLP 2025 43.77% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Don Valley North 68%▲ OLP 32%▼ PC <1% INDOdds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Don Valley North

OLP 43% ± 10% PC 39% ± 10% NDP 5% ± 4% IND 10% ± 6% Popular vote projection % | Don Valley North 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP IND February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 50% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 50% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 52% OLP 35% NDP 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 53% OLP 35% NDP 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 52% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 52% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 52% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 53% OLP 35% NDP 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 53% OLP 35% NDP 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 52% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 53% OLP 35% NDP 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 53% OLP 35% NDP 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 53% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 53% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 49% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 48% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 48% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 48% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 46% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 46% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 47% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 47% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 47% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 48% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 48% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 44% PC 38% NDP 5% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 44% PC 38% NDP 5% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 44% PC 38% NDP 5% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 OLP 43% PC 38% NDP 5% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 OLP 42% PC 42% NDP 4% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 OLP 42% PC 41% NDP 4% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 OLP 42% PC 41% NDP 4% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 OLP 42% PC 40% NDP 5% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 OLP 42% PC 40% NDP 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 OLP 43% PC 39% NDP 5% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Don Valley North

OLP 68% PC 32% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 91% PC 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 81% PC 19% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 81% PC 19% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 OLP 76% PC 24% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 50% OLP 50% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 OLP 54% PC 46% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 OLP 54% PC 46% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 OLP 63% PC 37% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 OLP 65% PC 35% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 OLP 68% PC 32% NDP <1% 2026-02-18