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Ontario

Don Valley North


MPP elect: Jonathan Tsao (OLP)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Likely OLP

Candidates | Don Valley North


PC Party of Ontario Sue Liu
Liberal Party Jonathan Tsao
Ontario NDP Ebrahim Astaraki
Green Party Andrew Armstrong
Independent Vincent Ke

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Don Valley North 44% ± 0%▲ OLP 38% ± 0%▼ PCPO 10% ± 0%▲ IND 5% ± 0%▼ NDP PCPO 2022 47.5% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Don Valley North 91%▲ OLP 9%▼ PCPO <1% INDOdds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Don Valley North

OLP 44% ± 0% PCPO 38% ± 0% NDP 5% ± 0% IND 10% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Don Valley North 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP IND February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 50% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 50% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 52% OLP 35% NDP 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 53% OLP 35% NDP 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 52% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 52% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 52% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 53% OLP 35% NDP 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 53% OLP 35% NDP 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 52% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 53% OLP 35% NDP 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 53% OLP 35% NDP 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 53% OLP 36% NDP 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 49% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 48% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 46% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 46% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 47% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 47% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 47% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 48% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 44% PCPO 38% NDP 5% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Don Valley North

OLP 91% PCPO 9% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 91% PCPO 9% NDP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Don Valley North



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 32.7% 44.4% 47.5% 38% ± 0% OLP 52.6% 30.9% 36.8% 44% ± 0% NDP 10.9% 20.9% 9.8% 5% ± 0% GPO 3.4% 2.5% 3.7% 3% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 1% ± 0% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10% ± 0%