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Ontario

Willowdale


MPP: Cho, Stan (PCPO)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Likely PCPO
Willowdale 47% ± 9%▲ PCPO 37% ± 9%▼ OLP 9% ± 4% NDP 4% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 44.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Willowdale 93%▲ PCPO 7%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Willowdale

OLP 37% ± 9% PCPO 47% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 4% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Willowdale 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 2% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 38% OLP 38% NDP 17% GPO 2% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 2% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 40% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 2% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 40% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 2% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 2% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 40% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 2% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 2% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 2% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 37% PCPO 37% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 37% PCPO 37% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 37% PCPO 36% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 37% OLP 37% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 37% OLP 37% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 37% OLP 36% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 37% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 37% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 38% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 38% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 38% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 38% OLP 35% NDP 18% GPO 3% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 41% OLP 33% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 45% OLP 38% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 44% OLP 38% NDP 11% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 44% OLP 39% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 43% OLP 40% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 43% OLP 40% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 44% OLP 39% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 40% OLP 39% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 42% OLP 39% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 41% PCPO 39% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 44% OLP 38% NDP 11% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 42% OLP 40% NDP 10% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 10% GPO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 46% PCPO 38% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 43% PCPO 41% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 42% OLP 42% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 43% OLP 41% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 44% OLP 39% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 45% OLP 39% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 44% OLP 39% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 45% OLP 39% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 47% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Willowdale

OLP 7% PCPO 93% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 71% OLP 29% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 66% OLP 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 70% OLP 30% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 69% OLP 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 69% OLP 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 71% OLP 29% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 78% OLP 22% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 68% OLP 32% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 59% OLP 41% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 57% OLP 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 50% PCPO 50% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 50% OLP 50% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 73% OLP 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 83% OLP 17% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 78% OLP 22% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 74% OLP 26% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 80% OLP 20% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 56% OLP 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 56% OLP 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 67% OLP 33% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 63% PCPO 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 66% OLP 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 86% OLP 14% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 66% OLP 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 58% OLP 42% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 66% PCPO 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 59% OLP 41% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 76% OLP 24% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 87% OLP 13% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 78% OLP 22% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 82% OLP 18% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Willowdale



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 31.9% 43.7% 44.7% 47% ± 9% OLP 52.8% 26.7% 38.0% 37% ± 9% NDP 11.1% 25.7% 10.3% 9% ± 4% GPO 3.9% 2.3% 3.6% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1% ± 1%