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Recent electoral history | Willowdale


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 48% ± 10% 43.7% 44.7% 46.1% OLP 43% ± 10% 26.7% 38.0% 44.6% NDP 5% ± 4% 25.7% 10.3% 5.4% GPO 2% ± 2% 2.3% 3.6% 2.5% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%

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338Canada Willowdale projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Willowdale 37% 58% 48% ± 10% PC 33% 54% 43% ± 10% OLP 2% 9% 5% ± 4% NDP PC 2025 46.12% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Willowdale 74%▼ PC 26%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Willowdale

OLP 43% ± 10% PC 48% ± 10% NDP 5% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Willowdale 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 47% OLP 38% NDP 9% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 48% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 50% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 50% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 50% OLP 37% NDP 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 50% OLP 37% NDP 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 50% OLP 37% NDP 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 51% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 51% OLP 37% NDP 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 50% OLP 37% NDP 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 51% OLP 36% NDP 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 51% OLP 36% NDP 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 51% OLP 37% NDP 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 50% OLP 37% NDP 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 51% OLP 38% NDP 7% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 51% OLP 38% NDP 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 51% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 51% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 50% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 50% OLP 39% NDP 7% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 51% OLP 38% NDP 7% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 51% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 51% OLP 38% NDP 7% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 51% OLP 38% NDP 7% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 51% OLP 38% NDP 7% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 51% OLP 38% NDP 7% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 51% OLP 38% NDP 7% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 52% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 52% OLP 38% NDP 6% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 46% OLP 45% NDP 5% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 46% OLP 44% NDP 5% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 46% OLP 45% NDP 5% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 47% OLP 44% NDP 5% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 50% OLP 42% NDP 4% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 50% OLP 42% NDP 4% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 50% OLP 42% NDP 5% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 48% OLP 43% NDP 5% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 48% OLP 43% NDP 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 48% OLP 43% NDP 5% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Willowdale

OLP 26% PC 74% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 93% OLP 7% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 97% OLP 3% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 96% OLP 4% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 98% OLP 2% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 99% OLP 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 63% OLP 37% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 61% OLP 39% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 60% OLP 40% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 67% OLP 33% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 88% OLP 12% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 86% OLP 14% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 79% OLP 21% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 74% OLP 26% NDP <1% 2026-02-18