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Ontario

King—Vaughan


MPP: Lecce, Stephen (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | King—Vaughan


PC Party of Ontario Stephen Lecce
Liberal Party Gillian Vivona
Ontario NDP Rick Morelli
Green Party Ann Raney
New Blue Party Christopher Bressi

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

King—Vaughan 57% ± 9%▲ PCPO 33% ± 8% OLP 5% ± 3%▼ NDP PCPO 2022 57.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% King—Vaughan >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | King—Vaughan

OLP 33% ± 8% PCPO 57% ± 9% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | King—Vaughan 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 56% OLP 31% NDP 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 57% OLP 30% NDP 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 59% OLP 29% NDP 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 59% OLP 29% NDP 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 59% OLP 30% NDP 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 59% OLP 30% NDP 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 59% OLP 30% NDP 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 60% OLP 30% NDP 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 59% OLP 30% NDP 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 57% OLP 32% NDP 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 57% OLP 31% NDP 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 57% OLP 31% NDP 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 57% OLP 32% NDP 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 57% OLP 32% NDP 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 57% OLP 32% NDP 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 56% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 57% OLP 33% NDP 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 57% OLP 32% NDP 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 55% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 56% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 56% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 57% OLP 33% NDP 5% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | King—Vaughan

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | King—Vaughan



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 32.3% 56.6% 57.6% 57% ± 9% OLP 51.3% 23.3% 28.2% 33% ± 8% NDP 11.6% 15.4% 7.0% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 1% ± 1% GPO 3.0% 3.4% 2.7% 3% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1% ± 1%