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Ontario

King—Vaughan


MPP: Lecce, Stephen (PCPO)

Latest projection: January 20, 2025
Safe PCPO
King—Vaughan 55% ± 9%▼ PCPO 32% ± 8%▲ OLP 7% ± 3% NDP 3% ± 2% GPO PCPO 2022 57.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | January 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% King—Vaughan >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | January 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | King—Vaughan

OLP 32% ± 8% PCPO 55% ± 9% NDP 7% ± 3% GPO 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | King—Vaughan 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP GPO January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO 57% OLP 29% NDP 7% GPO 3% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 56% OLP 30% NDP 6% GPO 3% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 56% OLP 30% NDP 6% GPO 3% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 57% OLP 29% NDP 7% GPO 3% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 52% OLP 30% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 52% OLP 31% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 53% OLP 30% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 54% OLP 30% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 51% OLP 32% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 53% OLP 30% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 56% OLP 29% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 55% OLP 31% NDP 8% GPO 4% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 54% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 3% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 52% OLP 34% NDP 7% GPO 3% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 54% OLP 32% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 55% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 3% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 55% OLP 31% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 56% OLP 29% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 58% OLP 28% NDP 7% GPO 3% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 57% OLP 29% NDP 7% GPO 4% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 57% OLP 29% NDP 7% GPO 3% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 60% OLP 28% NDP 7% GPO 3% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO 55% OLP 32% NDP 7% GPO 3% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Odds of winning | King—Vaughan

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 OLP PCPO NDP January 20, 2025 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15 2025-01-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-20 ▼ Stiles NDP leader ▼ Crombie OLP leader

Recent electoral history | King—Vaughan



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 32.3% 56.6% 57.6% 55% ± 9% OLP 51.3% 23.3% 28.2% 32% ± 8% NDP 11.6% 15.4% 7.0% 7% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 2% ± 2% GPO 3.0% 3.4% 2.7% 3% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0% ± 1%