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Ontario

Ajax


MPP : Robert Cerjanec (OLP)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Toss up OLP/PCPO

Recent electoral history | Ajax


2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 28.5% 39.1% 40.7% 45% ± 10% OLP 51.8% 25.8% 36.0% 46% ± 10% NDP 16.3% 31.0% 16.7% 6% ± 3% GPO 2.9% 2.5% 3.5% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1%

Ajax 46% ± 10%▲ OLP 45% ± 10% PCPO 6% ± 3% NDP PCPO 2022 40.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ajax 53%▲ OLP 47%▼ PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ajax

OLP 46% ± 10% PCPO 45% ± 10% NDP 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ajax 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 16% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 15% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 42% OLP 37% NDP 15% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 43% OLP 37% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 42% OLP 37% NDP 15% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 42% OLP 38% NDP 14% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 43% OLP 38% NDP 14% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 43% OLP 37% NDP 14% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 43% OLP 38% NDP 14% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 14% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 14% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 14% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 13% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 41% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 41% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 41% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 41% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 12% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 12% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 46% PCPO 45% NDP 6% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 45% PCPO 45% NDP 6% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 46% PCPO 45% NDP 6% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Ajax

OLP 53% PCPO 47% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 60% OLP 40% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 63% OLP 37% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 78% OLP 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 82% OLP 18% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 64% OLP 36% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 62% OLP 38% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 53% OLP 47% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 58% PCPO 42% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 56% PCPO 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 52% OLP 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 52% OLP 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 59% OLP 41% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 58% OLP 42% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 58% PCPO 42% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 53% PCPO 47% NDP <1% 2025-06-27