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Ontario

Ajax


MPP: Barnes, Patrice (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Toss up OLP/PCPO

Candidates | Ajax


PC Party of Ontario Patrice Barnes
Liberal Party Robert Cerjanec
Ontario NDP Arthur Augustine
Green Party Cory Feferman
New Blue Party Chris Rees
Centrist Party Sarah Qureshi

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Ajax 42% ± 9%▲ PCPO 41% ± 9% OLP 13% ± 5% NDP 4% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 40.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ajax 54%▲ PCPO 46%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ajax

OLP 41% ± 9% PCPO 42% ± 9% NDP 13% ± 5% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ajax 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 42% OLP 37% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 43% OLP 37% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 42% OLP 37% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 42% OLP 38% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 43% OLP 38% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 43% OLP 37% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 43% OLP 38% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 14% GPO 4% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 41% OLP 41% NDP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 41% OLP 41% NDP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 41% OLP 41% NDP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% GPO 4% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Ajax

OLP 46% PCPO 54% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 60% OLP 40% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 63% OLP 37% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 78% OLP 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 82% OLP 18% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 64% OLP 36% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 62% OLP 38% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 53% OLP 47% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 58% PCPO 42% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 56% PCPO 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 52% OLP 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Ajax



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 28.5% 39.1% 40.7% 42% ± 9% OLP 51.8% 25.8% 36.0% 41% ± 9% NDP 16.3% 31.0% 16.7% 13% ± 5% GPO 2.9% 2.5% 3.5% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1%