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Ontario

Ajax


MPP: Barnes, Patrice (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Leaning PCPO
Ajax 41% ± 9%▲ PCPO 37% ± 9% OLP 16% ± 6% NDP 4% ± 3%▼ GPO PCPO 2022 40.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ajax 76%▲ PCPO 24%▼ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Ajax

OLP 37% ± 9% PCPO 41% ± 9% NDP 16% ± 6% GPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ajax 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 2% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 36% OLP 36% NDP 20% GPO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 21% GPO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 37% OLP 35% NDP 21% GPO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 37% OLP 35% NDP 21% GPO 2% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 22% GPO 2% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 36% PCPO 36% NDP 21% GPO 2% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 36% PCPO 35% NDP 21% GPO 2% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 37% PCPO 35% NDP 21% GPO 2% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 21% GPO 2% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 21% GPO 2% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 37% OLP 35% NDP 21% GPO 2% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 20% GPO 2% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 37% OLP 34% NDP 21% GPO 2% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 21% GPO 2% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 36% OLP 36% NDP 20% GPO 2% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 20% GPO 2% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 36% PCPO 36% NDP 20% GPO 3% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 35% PCPO 35% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 35% PCPO 35% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 35% PCPO 35% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 35% PCPO 35% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 35% PCPO 35% NDP 21% GPO 3% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 35% OLP 35% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 35% OLP 35% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 35% OLP 34% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 36% OLP 34% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 36% OLP 34% NDP 20% GPO 4% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 35% PCPO 35% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 35% PCPO 35% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 36% OLP 35% NDP 19% GPO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 41% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 40% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 40% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 38% PCPO 36% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 38% PCPO 36% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 38% PCPO 37% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 37% PCPO 37% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 39% PCPO 35% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 37% PCPO 37% NDP 18% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 39% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 38% PCPO 38% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 39% PCPO 38% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 41% PCPO 36% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 40% PCPO 38% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 39% PCPO 38% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 40% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 42% OLP 36% NDP 15% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 40% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 41% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 4% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Ajax

OLP 24% PCPO 76% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 56% OLP 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 56% OLP 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 61% OLP 39% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 59% OLP 41% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 51% PCPO 49% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 61% PCPO 39% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 57% OLP 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 57% OLP 43% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 59% OLP 41% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 59% OLP 41% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 66% OLP 34% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 54% OLP 46% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 50% PCPO 50% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 51% PCPO 49% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 OLP 50% PCPO 50% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 53% PCPO 47% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 OLP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 60% OLP 40% NDP <1% GPO <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 OLP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 OLP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 58% OLP 42% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 90% OLP 10% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 69% OLP 31% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 63% OLP 37% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 OLP 62% PCPO 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 OLP 62% PCPO 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 OLP 54% PCPO 46% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 OLP 52% PCPO 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 OLP 78% PCPO 22% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 OLP 52% PCPO 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 73% OLP 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 OLP 52% PCPO 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 OLP 60% PCPO 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 82% PCPO 18% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 OLP 62% PCPO 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 OLP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 55% OLP 45% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 82% OLP 18% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 72% OLP 28% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 76% OLP 24% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Ajax



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 28.5% 39.1% 40.7% 41% ± 9% OLP 51.8% 25.8% 36.0% 37% ± 9% NDP 16.3% 31.0% 16.7% 16% ± 6% GPO 2.9% 2.5% 3.5% 4% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1% ± 1%