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Recent electoral history | Ajax


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 47% ± 10% 39.1% 40.7% 44.8% OLP 44% ± 10% 25.8% 36.0% 45.7% NDP 5% ± 3% 31.0% 16.7% 5.6% GPO 2% ± 2% 2.5% 3.5% 2.1% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 1.7% 1.0%

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338Canada Ajax projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Ajax 37% 56% 47% ± 10% PC 34% 54% 44% ± 10% OLP 2% 9% 5% ± 3% NDP OLP 2025 45.66% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Ajax 64%▼ PC 36%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Ajax

OLP 44% ± 10% PC 47% ± 10% NDP 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Ajax 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 40% OLP 38% NDP 16% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 40% OLP 38% NDP 15% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 42% OLP 37% NDP 15% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 43% OLP 37% NDP 15% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 42% OLP 37% NDP 15% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 42% OLP 38% NDP 14% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 43% OLP 38% NDP 14% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 43% OLP 37% NDP 14% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 43% OLP 38% NDP 14% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 41% OLP 40% NDP 14% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 41% OLP 39% NDP 15% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 41% OLP 39% NDP 14% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 41% OLP 40% NDP 14% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 41% OLP 40% NDP 13% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 41% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 41% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 42% PC 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 42% PC 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 41% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 41% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 42% OLP 41% NDP 13% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 42% OLP 41% NDP 12% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 42% OLP 41% NDP 12% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 46% PC 45% NDP 6% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 45% PC 45% NDP 6% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 46% PC 45% NDP 6% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 46% OLP 45% NDP 5% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 49% OLP 43% NDP 4% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 49% OLP 43% NDP 4% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 48% OLP 43% NDP 5% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 47% OLP 44% NDP 5% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 47% OLP 44% NDP 5% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 47% OLP 44% NDP 5% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Ajax

OLP 36% PC 64% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 60% OLP 40% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 63% OLP 37% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 78% OLP 22% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 76% OLP 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 83% OLP 17% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 82% OLP 18% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 64% OLP 36% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 62% OLP 38% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 53% OLP 47% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 56% OLP 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 58% PC 42% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 56% PC 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 52% OLP 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 52% OLP 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 54% OLP 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 59% OLP 41% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 58% OLP 42% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 58% PC 42% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 52% PC 48% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 53% PC 47% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 81% OLP 19% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 78% OLP 22% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 78% OLP 22% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 69% OLP 31% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 66% OLP 34% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 64% OLP 36% NDP <1% 2026-02-18