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Ontario

Northumberland—Peterborough South


MPP: Piccini, David (PCPO)

Latest projection: June 30, 2024
Safe PCPO
Northumberland—Peterborough South 49% ± 9%▲ PCPO 26% ± 8%▼ OLP 12% ± 5% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 51.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 30, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Northumberland—Peterborough South >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 30, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Northumberland—Peterborough South

OLP 26% ± 8% PCPO 49% ± 9% NDP 12% ± 5% GPO 8% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Northumberland—Peterborough South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 30, 2024 2022-04-23 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 PCPO 39% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 PCPO 39% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 38% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 38% PCPO 38% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 38% PCPO 37% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 40% OLP 37% NDP 16% GPO 3% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 40% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 17% GPO 3% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 40% OLP 37% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 40% OLP 36% NDP 17% GPO 4% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 40% OLP 36% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 39% OLP 35% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 39% OLP 35% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 39% OLP 35% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 40% OLP 35% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 40% OLP 35% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 39% OLP 35% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 39% OLP 35% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 40% OLP 34% NDP 17% GPO 5% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 42% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 42% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 42% OLP 34% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 43% OLP 33% NDP 16% GPO 5% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 45% OLP 32% NDP 15% GPO 4% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 51% OLP 25% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 50% OLP 25% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 50% OLP 26% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 50% OLP 26% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 50% OLP 26% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 50% OLP 26% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 45% OLP 26% NDP 14% GPO 9% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 45% OLP 27% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 46% OLP 26% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 47% OLP 26% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 44% OLP 28% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 46% OLP 26% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 49% OLP 25% NDP 14% GPO 8% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 48% OLP 27% NDP 13% GPO 8% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 48% OLP 28% NDP 13% GPO 7% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 45% OLP 31% NDP 13% GPO 7% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 47% OLP 29% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 48% OLP 28% NDP 13% GPO 7% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 48% OLP 28% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 49% OLP 26% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2024-06-30

Odds of winning | Northumberland—Peterborough South

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO June 30, 2024 2022-04-23 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-23 2022-04-28 PCPO 54% OLP 46% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-28 2022-04-30 PCPO 54% OLP 46% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 61% OLP 39% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 62% OLP 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 62% OLP 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 57% OLP 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 53% OLP 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 62% OLP 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 62% OLP 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 64% OLP 36% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 71% OLP 29% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 59% OLP 41% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 73% OLP 27% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 76% OLP 24% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 77% OLP 23% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 75% OLP 25% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 80% OLP 20% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 79% OLP 21% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 80% OLP 20% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 80% OLP 20% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 87% OLP 13% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 92% OLP 8% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 95% OLP 5% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30

Recent electoral history | Northumberland—Peterborough South



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 35.5% 45.3% 51.0% 49% ± 9% OLP 41.5% 24.2% 25.0% 26% ± 8% NDP 18.5% 24.5% 13.1% 12% ± 5% GPO 4.3% 4.5% 5.7% 8% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2% ± 2%