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Ontario


Northumberland—Peterborough South


MPP: Piccini, David (PCPO)


Latest projection: February 20, 2024

Likely PCPO
Northumberland—Peterborough South 45% ± 9%▼ 31% ± 8%▲ 13% ± 5% 7% ± 4% PCPO 2022 51.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by profesional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.

50% 100% Northumberland—Peterborough South 99%▼ 1%▲ <1% Odds of winning | February 20, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Northumberland—Peterborough South

OLP 31% ± 8% PCPO 45% ± 9% NDP 13% ± 5% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Northumberland—Peterborough South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Odds of winning | Northumberland—Peterborough South

OLP 1% PCPO 99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-07-01 2022-10-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-04-01 2023-07-01 2023-10-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-04-01 2024-07-01 2024-10-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO

Recent electoral history | Northumberland—Peterborough South



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 35.5% 45.3% 51.0% 45% ± 9% OLP 41.5% 24.2% 25.0% 31% ± 8% NDP 18.5% 24.5% 13.1% 13% ± 5% GPO 4.3% 4.5% 5.7% 7% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2% ± 2%