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Recent electoral history | Northumberland—Peterborough South


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 54% ± 9% 45.3% 51.0% 52.1% OLP 31% ± 8% 24.2% 25.0% 32.4% NDP 9% ± 4% 24.5% 13.1% 9.3% GPO 3% ± 2% 4.5% 5.7% 3.7% NBPO 1% ± 1% 0.0% 2.2% 1.3% ONP 1% ± 1% 0.0% 3.1% 1.2%

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338Canada Northumberland—Peterborough South projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Northumberland—Peterborough South 45% 63% 54% ± 9% PC 23% 39% 31% ± 8% OLP 5% 13% 9% ± 4% NDP PC 2025 52.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Northumberland—Peterborough South >99% PC <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.

338Canada Ontario Projection | Northumberland—Peterborough South

Odds of winning | Northumberland—Peterborough South