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Ontario

Northumberland—Peterborough South


MPP: Piccini, David (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Northumberland—Peterborough South


PC Party of Ontario David Piccini
Liberal Party Dorothy Noronha
Ontario NDP Bruce Lepage
Green Party Maxwell Groves
New Blue Party Joshua Chalhoub
Ontario Party Florian Bors

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Northumberland—Peterborough South 55% ± 9%▲ PCPO 27% ± 8%▼ OLP 9% ± 4%▼ NDP 6% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 51.0% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Northumberland—Peterborough South >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Northumberland—Peterborough South

OLP 27% ± 8% PCPO 55% ± 9% NDP 9% ± 4% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Northumberland—Peterborough South 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 50% OLP 27% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 51% OLP 27% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 53% OLP 26% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 54% OLP 26% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 53% OLP 27% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 53% OLP 27% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 53% OLP 27% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 54% OLP 26% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 54% OLP 26% NDP 11% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 54% OLP 27% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 54% OLP 26% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 54% OLP 26% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 54% OLP 27% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 54% OLP 27% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 54% OLP 27% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 54% OLP 28% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 55% OLP 27% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 55% OLP 27% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 53% OLP 28% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 54% OLP 28% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 54% OLP 28% NDP 10% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 55% OLP 27% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Northumberland—Peterborough South

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Northumberland—Peterborough South



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 35.5% 45.3% 51.0% 55% ± 9% OLP 41.5% 24.2% 25.0% 27% ± 8% NDP 18.5% 24.5% 13.1% 9% ± 4% GPO 4.3% 4.5% 5.7% 6% ± 4% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 1% ± 1% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 1% ± 1%