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Ontario

Scarborough—Guildwood


MPP elect: Andrea Hazell (OLP)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Likely OLP

Candidates | Scarborough—Guildwood


PC Party of Ontario Jude Aloysius
Liberal Party Andrea Hazell
Ontario NDP Christian Keay
Green Party Tara Mcmahon
New Blue Party Anthony Internicola
Independent Kevin Clarke
Independent Kingsley Cato

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Scarborough—Guildwood 51% ± 0%▲ OLP 38% ± 0% PCPO 7% ± 0%▼ NDP OLP 2022 46.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough—Guildwood >99%▲ OLP <1%▼ PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Scarborough—Guildwood

OLP 51% ± 0% PCPO 38% ± 0% NDP 7% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough—Guildwood 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 39% PCPO 35% NDP 21% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 39% PCPO 35% NDP 21% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 38% OLP 38% NDP 20% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 20% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 38% OLP 38% NDP 20% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 39% PCPO 38% NDP 19% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 39% PCPO 39% NDP 19% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 19% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 19% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 39% OLP 39% NDP 19% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 19% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 39% OLP 39% NDP 18% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 39% PCPO 39% NDP 18% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 18% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 17% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 17% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 41% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 41% PCPO 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 41% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 41% PCPO 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 51% PCPO 38% NDP 7% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Scarborough—Guildwood

OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 73% PCPO 27% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 70% PCPO 30% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 57% OLP 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 50% PCPO 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 53% PCPO 47% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 58% OLP 42% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 60% OLP 40% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 57% OLP 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 51% PCPO 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 54% PCPO 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 54% PCPO 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 54% PCPO 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 68% PCPO 32% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 65% PCPO 35% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 57% PCPO 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 57% PCPO 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 71% PCPO 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 72% PCPO 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 72% PCPO 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 73% PCPO 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 72% PCPO 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 68% PCPO 32% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 69% PCPO 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Scarborough—Guildwood



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 50.4% 33.4% 46.3% 51% ± 0% PCPO 27.9% 33.1% 31.5% 38% ± 0% NDP 17.0% 27.6% 16.7% 7% ± 0% GPO 2.8% 2.4% 2.8% 2% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 0% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 0%