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Ontario

Scarborough—Guildwood


MPP : Andrea Hazell (OLP)
Latest projection: June 27, 2025
Likely OLP

Recent electoral history | Scarborough—Guildwood


2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 50.4% 33.4% 46.3% 51% ± 11% PCPO 27.9% 33.1% 31.5% 38% ± 10% NDP 17.0% 27.6% 16.7% 7% ± 4% GPO 2.8% 2.4% 2.8% 2% ± 2% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 2% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 2%

Scarborough—Guildwood 51% ± 11% OLP 38% ± 10% PCPO 7% ± 4% NDP OLP 2022 46.3% 338Canada Popular vote projection | June 27, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough—Guildwood 96% OLP 4% PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | June 27, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Scarborough—Guildwood

OLP 51% ± 11% PCPO 38% ± 10% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough—Guildwood 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 39% PCPO 35% NDP 21% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 39% PCPO 35% NDP 21% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 38% OLP 38% NDP 20% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 39% OLP 37% NDP 20% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 38% OLP 38% NDP 20% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 39% PCPO 38% NDP 19% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 39% PCPO 39% NDP 19% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 19% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 19% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 39% OLP 39% NDP 19% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 19% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 39% OLP 39% NDP 18% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 39% PCPO 39% NDP 18% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 18% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 17% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 17% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 41% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 41% PCPO 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 41% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 41% PCPO 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 42% PCPO 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 51% PCPO 38% NDP 7% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 51% PCPO 38% NDP 7% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 51% PCPO 38% NDP 7% 2025-06-27

Odds of winning | Scarborough—Guildwood

OLP 96% PCPO 4% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 2025-08-01 2025-09-01 2025-10-01 2025-11-01 2025-12-01 Election 2025 OLP PCPO NDP June 27, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 73% PCPO 27% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 70% PCPO 30% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 57% OLP 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 50% PCPO 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 53% PCPO 47% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 58% OLP 42% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 60% OLP 40% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 57% OLP 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 52% PCPO 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 51% PCPO 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 54% PCPO 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 54% PCPO 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 54% PCPO 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 68% PCPO 32% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 65% PCPO 35% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 57% PCPO 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 57% PCPO 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 71% PCPO 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 72% PCPO 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 72% PCPO 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 73% PCPO 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 72% PCPO 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 68% PCPO 32% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 69% PCPO 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 96% PCPO 4% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 96% PCPO 4% NDP <1% 2025-06-27