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Recent electoral history | Scarborough—Guildwood


2018 2022 2025 Projection OLP 49% ± 11% 33.4% 46.3% 50.8% PC 40% ± 10% 33.1% 31.5% 38.0% NDP 7% ± 4% 27.6% 16.7% 6.7% GPO 2% ± 2% 2.4% 2.8% 2.5% NBPO 1% ± 2% 0.0% 1.3% 1.1% IND 1% ± 2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%

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338Canada Scarborough—Guildwood projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Scarborough—Guildwood 39% 60% 49% ± 11% OLP 29% 50% 40% ± 10% PC 2% 11% 7% ± 4% NDP OLP 2025 50.85% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Scarborough—Guildwood 91%▲ OLP 9%▼ PC <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Scarborough—Guildwood

OLP 49% ± 11% PC 40% ± 10% NDP 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Scarborough—Guildwood 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 OLP 39% PC 35% NDP 21% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 39% PC 35% NDP 21% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 38% OLP 38% NDP 20% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 39% OLP 37% NDP 20% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 38% OLP 38% NDP 20% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 39% PC 38% NDP 19% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 39% PC 39% NDP 19% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 39% OLP 38% NDP 19% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 39% OLP 38% NDP 19% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 39% OLP 39% NDP 19% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 39% OLP 38% NDP 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 39% OLP 38% NDP 19% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 39% OLP 39% NDP 18% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 39% PC 39% NDP 18% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 40% PC 39% NDP 18% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 40% PC 40% NDP 17% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 40% PC 40% NDP 17% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 40% PC 40% NDP 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 41% PC 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 41% PC 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 40% PC 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 40% PC 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 41% PC 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 42% PC 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 42% PC 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 42% PC 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 42% PC 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 41% PC 39% NDP 17% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 42% PC 38% NDP 17% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP 51% PC 38% NDP 7% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 51% PC 38% NDP 7% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 51% PC 38% NDP 7% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 OLP 50% PC 39% NDP 6% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 OLP 48% PC 42% NDP 5% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 OLP 49% PC 42% NDP 5% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 OLP 48% PC 41% NDP 6% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 OLP 49% PC 40% NDP 6% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 OLP 49% PC 40% NDP 6% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 OLP 49% PC 40% NDP 7% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Scarborough—Guildwood

OLP 91% PC 9% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 OLP 73% PC 27% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 70% PC 30% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 57% OLP 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 OLP 50% PC 50% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 OLP 53% PC 47% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 OLP 52% PC 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 58% OLP 42% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 55% OLP 45% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 60% OLP 40% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 57% OLP 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 51% OLP 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 OLP 52% PC 48% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 OLP 51% PC 49% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 54% PC 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 54% PC 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 54% PC 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 68% PC 32% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 65% PC 35% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 57% PC 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 57% PC 43% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 OLP 71% PC 29% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 OLP 72% PC 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 OLP 72% PC 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 OLP 73% PC 27% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 OLP 72% PC 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 OLP 68% PC 32% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 OLP 69% PC 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 OLP >99% PC <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 OLP 96% PC 4% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 OLP 96% PC 4% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 OLP 94% PC 6% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 OLP 81% PC 19% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 OLP 83% PC 17% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 OLP 83% PC 17% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 OLP 89% PC 11% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 OLP 88% PC 12% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 OLP 91% PC 9% NDP <1% 2026-02-18