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Ontario

Elgin—Middlesex—London


MPP: Flack, Rob (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Elgin—Middlesex—London


PC Party of Ontario Rob Flack
Liberal Party Douglas Mactavish
Ontario NDP Amanda Zavitz
Green Party Amanda Stark
New Blue Party Brian Figueiredo
Ontario Party Cooper Labrie
None of the Above Party Stephen R Campbell

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Elgin—Middlesex—London 57% ± 9%▲ PCPO 22% ± 7% OLP 12% ± 5% NDP 6% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 51.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Elgin—Middlesex—London >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Elgin—Middlesex—London

OLP 22% ± 7% PCPO 57% ± 9% NDP 12% ± 5% GPO 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Elgin—Middlesex—London 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 51% OLP 21% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 52% OLP 21% NDP 16% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 55% OLP 20% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 55% OLP 20% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 54% OLP 21% NDP 15% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 55% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 55% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 56% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 56% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 55% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 56% OLP 20% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 56% OLP 21% NDP 14% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 56% OLP 21% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 56% OLP 21% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 56% OLP 21% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 56% OLP 22% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 57% OLP 21% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 57% OLP 21% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 55% OLP 22% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 56% OLP 22% NDP 13% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 56% OLP 22% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 57% OLP 22% NDP 12% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Elgin—Middlesex—London

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Elgin—Middlesex—London



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 47.1% 55.4% 51.1% 57% ± 9% NDP 26.2% 32.0% 18.2% 12% ± 5% OLP 20.0% 7.3% 17.4% 22% ± 7% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 2% ± 2% GPO 4.9% 3.9% 4.7% 6% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 1% ± 1%