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Ontario

Don Valley West


MPP: Bowman, Stephanie (OLP)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Toss up OLP/PCPO

Candidates | Don Valley West


PC Party of Ontario Sam Moini
Liberal Party Stephanie Bowman
Ontario NDP Linnea Löfström-Abary
Green Party Sheena Sharp
New Blue Party Laurel Hobbs
Independent Bahira Abdulsalam

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Don Valley West 45% ± 10%▲ OLP 42% ± 9%▼ PCPO 6% ± 3% NDP 6% ± 4% GPO OLP 2022 43.9% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Don Valley West 64%▲ OLP 36%▼ PCPO <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Don Valley West

OLP 45% ± 10% PCPO 42% ± 9% NDP 6% ± 3% GPO 6% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Don Valley West 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 43% PCPO 42% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 43% PCPO 42% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 44% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 45% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 44% OLP 42% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 44% OLP 42% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 44% OLP 42% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 45% OLP 42% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 45% OLP 42% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 44% OLP 42% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 45% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 45% OLP 41% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 45% OLP 42% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 44% OLP 42% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 45% OLP 43% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 44% PCPO 43% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 44% PCPO 43% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 44% PCPO 43% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 45% PCPO 42% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 45% PCPO 42% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 44% PCPO 43% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 45% PCPO 42% NDP 6% GPO 6% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Don Valley West

OLP 64% PCPO 36% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 OLP 57% PCPO 43% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 OLP 55% PCPO 45% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 67% OLP 33% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 69% OLP 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 63% OLP 37% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 60% OLP 40% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 61% OLP 39% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 70% OLP 30% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 68% OLP 32% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 64% OLP 36% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 72% OLP 28% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 69% OLP 31% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 65% OLP 35% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 62% OLP 38% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 62% OLP 38% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 OLP 56% PCPO 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 OLP 56% PCPO 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 OLP 56% PCPO 44% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 OLP 70% PCPO 30% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 OLP 67% PCPO 33% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 OLP 60% PCPO 40% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 OLP 64% PCPO 36% NDP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Don Valley West



2014 2018 2022 Proj. OLP 56.3% 38.9% 43.9% 45% ± 10% PCPO 32.3% 38.5% 38.7% 42% ± 9% NDP 6.9% 18.8% 9.2% 6% ± 3% GPO 3.2% 2.8% 5.5% 6% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 0% ± 1%