Sarnia—Lambton


MPP elect: Bob Bailey (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Sarnia—Lambton


PC Party of Ontario Bob Bailey
Liberal Party Rachel Willsie
Ontario NDP Candace Young
Green Party Pamela Reid
New Blue Party Keith Benn
Ontario Party Mark Lamore
Libertarian Party Jacques Boudreau
Populist Ontario Tom Stoukas
Independent Nathan Colquhoun

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Sarnia—Lambton 51% ± 0%▼ PCPO 20% ± 0%▲ NDP 18% ± 0%▲ OLP 4% ± 0%▲ NBPO PCPO 2022 52.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sarnia—Lambton >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sarnia—Lambton

OLP 18% ± 0% PCPO 51% ± 0% NDP 20% ± 0% NBPO 4% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Sarnia—Lambton 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP NBPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 54% NDP 21% OLP 13% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 55% NDP 21% OLP 13% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 59% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 59% NDP 20% OLP 12% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 58% NDP 20% OLP 13% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 59% NDP 19% OLP 13% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 59% NDP 19% OLP 13% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 60% NDP 18% OLP 13% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 60% NDP 19% OLP 13% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 59% NDP 19% OLP 13% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 59% NDP 19% OLP 13% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 59% NDP 19% OLP 13% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 60% NDP 18% OLP 13% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 60% NDP 17% OLP 13% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 60% NDP 17% OLP 13% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 60% NDP 17% OLP 14% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 61% NDP 16% OLP 13% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 61% NDP 16% OLP 13% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 60% NDP 17% OLP 14% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 60% NDP 17% OLP 14% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 61% NDP 17% OLP 14% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 61% NDP 16% OLP 14% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 61% NDP 17% OLP 14% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 61% NDP 17% OLP 13% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 61% NDP 17% OLP 13% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 61% NDP 17% OLP 13% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 61% NDP 17% OLP 13% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 61% NDP 16% OLP 13% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 62% NDP 16% OLP 13% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 51% NDP 20% OLP 18% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Sarnia—Lambton

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Sarnia—Lambton



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 41.0% 52.8% 52.7% 51% ± 0% NDP 35.8% 37.4% 23.6% 20% ± 0% OLP 17.9% 4.4% 10.5% 18% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 4% ± 0% GPO 4.6% 3.7% 3.2% 2% ± 0% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1% ± 0% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2% ± 0%