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Ontario

Sarnia—Lambton


MPP: Bailey, Bob (PCPO)

Latest projection: December 15, 2024
Safe PCPO
Sarnia—Lambton 54% ± 9%▲ PCPO 21% ± 7%▲ NDP 13% ± 5% OLP 4% ± 3% GPO 4% ± 3%▼ NBPO PCPO 2022 52.7% 338Canada Popular vote projection | December 15, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Sarnia—Lambton >99% PCPO <1% NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | December 15, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Sarnia—Lambton

OLP 13% ± 5% PCPO 54% ± 9% NDP 21% ± 7% GPO 4% ± 3% NBPO 4% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Sarnia—Lambton 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO NBPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 53% NDP 26% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 53% NDP 27% OLP 8% GPO 6% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 54% NDP 27% OLP 8% GPO 6% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 54% NDP 26% OLP 8% GPO 6% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 54% NDP 26% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 53% NDP 27% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 53% NDP 27% OLP 8% GPO 6% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 53% NDP 26% OLP 9% GPO 6% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 53% NDP 27% OLP 9% GPO 6% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 54% NDP 26% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 54% NDP 26% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 54% NDP 26% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 54% NDP 26% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 54% NDP 26% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 53% NDP 26% OLP 8% GPO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 53% NDP 25% OLP 10% GPO 6% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 53% NDP 25% OLP 10% GPO 6% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 52% NDP 24% OLP 10% GPO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 51% NDP 25% OLP 9% GPO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 51% NDP 25% OLP 9% GPO 7% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 51% NDP 26% OLP 9% GPO 8% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 51% NDP 25% OLP 9% GPO 7% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 51% NDP 25% OLP 9% GPO 8% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 51% NDP 25% OLP 9% GPO 7% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 51% NDP 25% OLP 9% GPO 8% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 52% NDP 24% OLP 9% GPO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 53% NDP 23% OLP 9% GPO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 53% NDP 23% OLP 9% GPO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 53% NDP 23% OLP 9% GPO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 54% NDP 23% OLP 9% GPO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 55% NDP 22% OLP 8% GPO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 53% NDP 24% OLP 10% GPO 3% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 52% NDP 24% OLP 11% GPO 3% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 53% NDP 22% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 52% NDP 22% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 52% NDP 22% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 52% NDP 23% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 47% NDP 25% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 48% NDP 25% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 49% NDP 25% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 49% NDP 25% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 47% NDP 26% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 48% NDP 25% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 52% NDP 25% OLP 11% GPO 4% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 51% NDP 24% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 51% NDP 24% OLP 12% GPO 4% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO 49% NDP 22% OLP 16% GPO 4% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 50% NDP 21% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 51% NDP 21% OLP 14% GPO 4% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 51% NDP 21% OLP 14% GPO 4% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 52% NDP 21% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 54% NDP 20% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 52% NDP 20% OLP 13% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 53% NDP 20% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO 54% NDP 21% OLP 13% GPO 4% 2024-12-15

Odds of winning | Sarnia—Lambton

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO December 15, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11 2024-12-15 PCPO >99% GPO <1% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2024-12-15

Recent electoral history | Sarnia—Lambton



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 41.0% 52.8% 52.7% 54% ± 9% NDP 35.8% 37.4% 23.6% 21% ± 7% OLP 17.9% 4.4% 10.5% 13% ± 5% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 4% ± 3% GPO 4.6% 3.7% 3.2% 4% ± 3% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1% ± 1%