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Ontario

Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston


MPP elect: John Jordan (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston


PC Party of Ontario John Jordan
Liberal Party Rob Rainer
Ontario NDP John Macrae
Green Party Marlene Spruyt
New Blue Party David Motton
Ontario Party Wendy Dillistone-Whitaker
Independent Shane O'Neill

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 49% ± 0%▼ PCPO 33% ± 0%▲ OLP 10% ± 0%▼ NDP PCPO 2022 50.2% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

OLP 33% ± 0% PCPO 49% ± 0% NDP 10% ± 0% GPO 3% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 51% NDP 19% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 51% NDP 19% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 54% NDP 18% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 55% NDP 18% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 54% NDP 18% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 55% NDP 17% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 55% NDP 17% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 56% NDP 17% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 55% NDP 17% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 55% NDP 17% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 55% NDP 17% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 55% NDP 17% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 56% OLP 17% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 56% OLP 17% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 56% OLP 17% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 56% OLP 18% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 57% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 57% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 55% OLP 18% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 56% OLP 18% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 56% OLP 18% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 57% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 56% OLP 18% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 56% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 56% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 56% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 56% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 57% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 57% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 49% OLP 33% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 46.9% 52.0% 50.2% 49% ± 0% NDP 18.2% 30.5% 20.6% 10% ± 0% OLP 28.0% 10.6% 15.9% 33% ± 0% GPO 6.9% 4.8% 6.8% 3% ± 0% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 2% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 1% ± 0% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1% ± 0%