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Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

Latest update: February 18, 2026
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MPP: John Jordan
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Recent electoral history | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston


2018 2022 2025 Projection PC 51% ± 9% 52.0% 50.2% 49.3% OLP 32% ± 8% 10.6% 15.9% 32.7% NDP 10% ± 4% 30.5% 20.6% 10.4% GPO 3% ± 2% 4.8% 6.8% 3.3% ONP 2% ± 2% 0.0% 3.6% 2.0% NBPO 1% ± 2% 0.0% 1.7% 1.5% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%

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338Canada Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 42% 60% 51% ± 9% PC 23% 40% 32% ± 8% ▲ OLP 6% 15% 10% ± 4% NDP PC 2025 49.34% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston >99% PC <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

OLP 32% ± 8% PC 51% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 4% GPO 3% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP GPO February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 51% NDP 19% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 51% NDP 19% OLP 17% GPO 9% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 54% NDP 18% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 55% NDP 18% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 54% NDP 18% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 55% NDP 17% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 55% NDP 17% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 56% NDP 17% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 55% NDP 17% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 55% NDP 17% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 55% NDP 17% OLP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 55% NDP 17% OLP 17% GPO 8% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 56% OLP 17% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 56% OLP 17% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 56% OLP 17% NDP 16% GPO 8% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 56% OLP 18% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 57% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 57% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 55% OLP 18% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 56% OLP 18% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 56% OLP 18% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 57% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 56% OLP 18% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 56% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 56% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 56% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 56% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 57% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 57% OLP 17% NDP 15% GPO 8% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC 49% OLP 33% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC 50% OLP 33% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC 50% OLP 33% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC 50% OLP 32% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 54% OLP 31% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 54% OLP 31% NDP 8% GPO 3% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC 53% OLP 31% NDP 9% GPO 3% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC 52% OLP 31% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC 51% OLP 31% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC 51% OLP 32% NDP 10% GPO 3% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

OLP <1% PC >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PC >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 PC >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2026-02-18