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Ontario

Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes


MPP: Clark, Steve (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 20, 2025
Safe PCPO

Candidates | Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes


PC Party of Ontario Steve Clark
Liberal Party Lorna Jean Edmonds
Ontario NDP Chris Wilson
Green Party Fiona Jager
New Blue Party Chris Garrah
Ontario Party Daniel Calabretta
Libertarian Party Mark Snow

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes 62% ± 9% PCPO 19% ± 7% OLP 10% ± 5% NDP 7% ± 4% GPO PCPO 2022 57.8% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 20, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes >99% PCPO <1% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 20, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes

OLP 19% ± 7% PCPO 62% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 5% GPO 7% ± 4% Popular vote projection % | Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP GPO February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 58% OLP 19% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 58% OLP 19% NDP 12% GPO 8% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 61% OLP 18% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 61% OLP 18% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 60% OLP 19% NDP 12% GPO 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 61% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 61% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 61% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 61% OLP 18% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 61% OLP 19% NDP 11% GPO 7% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 9% GPO 7% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 9% GPO 7% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 61% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 61% OLP 20% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 62% OLP 19% NDP 10% GPO 7% 2025-02-20

Odds of winning | Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes

OLP <1% PCPO >99% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 20, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% NDP <1% OLP <1% 2025-02-20

Recent electoral history | Leeds—Grenville—1000 Islands & Rideau Lakes



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 56.1% 61.3% 57.8% 62% ± 9% OLP 20.5% 13.4% 18.3% 19% ± 7% NDP 17.4% 19.8% 13.3% 10% ± 5% GPO 4.9% 4.8% 6.1% 7% ± 4% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 1% ± 1% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 1% ± 1%