logo
Ontario

Recent electoral history | Oshawa


2018 2022 2025 Projection NDP 48% ± 10% 44.8% 42.1% 45.9% PC 41% ± 10% 41.8% 40.2% 41.5% OLP 8% ± 4% 7.9% 9.1% 8.8% GPO 2% ± 2% 3.6% 4.0% 2.1% NBPO 1% ± 2% 0.0% 2.5% 1.4% IND 0% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%

Latest from the 338Canada newsletter

Loading latest analysis…


Ontario flag

338Canada Oshawa projection

Latest update: February 18, 2026

Oshawa 38% 58% 48% ± 10% NDP 31% 50% 41% ± 10% PC 4% 12% 8% ± 4% OLP NDP 2025 45.87% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oshawa 85%▲ NDP 15%▼ PC <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 18, 2026
Methodology note. These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of simulated elections.


Popular vote projection | Oshawa

OLP 8% ± 4% PC 41% ± 10% NDP 48% ± 10% Popular vote projection % | Oshawa 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 41% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 42% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 43% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 44% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 43% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 44% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 44% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 44% NDP 38% OLP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 44% NDP 38% OLP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 42% NDP 40% OLP 12% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 42% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 42% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 43% NDP 39% OLP 12% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 12% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 42% NDP 39% OLP 12% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 43% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 43% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 43% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 43% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 43% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 44% NDP 39% OLP 10% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 44% NDP 39% OLP 10% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 46% PC 42% OLP 9% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 45% PC 42% OLP 9% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 45% PC 42% OLP 9% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 45% PC 43% OLP 9% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 48% NDP 40% OLP 9% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 46% NDP 42% OLP 9% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 44% PC 44% OLP 8% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 47% PC 41% OLP 8% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 47% PC 41% OLP 8% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 48% PC 41% OLP 8% 2026-02-18

Odds of winning | Oshawa

OLP <1% PC 15% NDP 85% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-03-01 2025-05-01 2025-07-01 2025-09-01 2025-11-01 2026► 2026-01-01 2026-03-01 2026-05-01 2026-07-01 Election 2025 OLP PC NDP February 18, 2026 2025-01-27 PC 55% NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PC 58% NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PC 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PC 72% NDP 28% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PC 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PC 79% NDP 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PC 79% NDP 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PC 84% NDP 16% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PC 83% NDP 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PC 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PC 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PC 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PC 74% NDP 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PC 80% NDP 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PC 80% NDP 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PC 82% NDP 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PC 80% NDP 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PC 80% NDP 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PC 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PC 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PC 77% NDP 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PC 78% NDP 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PC 72% NDP 28% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PC 68% NDP 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PC 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PC 68% NDP 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PC 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PC 77% NDP 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PC 76% NDP 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 86% PC 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-28 2025-06-07 NDP 70% PC 30% OLP <1% 2025-06-07 2025-06-27 NDP 68% PC 32% OLP <1% 2025-06-27 2025-07-27 NDP 60% PC 40% OLP <1% 2025-07-27 2025-08-31 PC 88% NDP 12% OLP <1% 2025-08-31 2025-10-21 PC 76% NDP 24% OLP <1% 2025-10-21 2025-11-23 NDP 53% PC 47% OLP <1% 2025-11-23 2025-12-20 NDP 81% PC 19% OLP <1% 2025-12-20 2026-01-25 NDP 82% PC 18% OLP <1% 2026-01-25 2026-02-18 NDP 85% PC 15% OLP <1% 2026-02-18