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Ontario

Oshawa


MPP elect: Jennifer French (NDP)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Leaning NDP

Candidates | Oshawa


PC Party of Ontario Jerry J. Ouellette
Liberal Party Viresh Bansal
Ontario NDP Jennifer French
Green Party Nicholas Sirgool
New Blue Party Joe Ingino
Independent Rahul Padmini Soumian

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Oshawa 46% ± 0%▲ NDP 42% ± 0%▼ PCPO 9% ± 0%▼ OLP NDP 2022 42.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oshawa 86%▲ NDP 14%▼ PCPO <1% OLP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Oshawa

OLP 9% ± 0% PCPO 42% ± 0% NDP 46% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Oshawa 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 41% NDP 41% OLP 11% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 43% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 44% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 43% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 44% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 44% NDP 39% OLP 11% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 44% NDP 38% OLP 11% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 44% NDP 38% OLP 11% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 12% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 42% NDP 40% OLP 11% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 43% NDP 39% OLP 12% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 12% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 12% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 12% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 43% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 43% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 43% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 43% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 43% NDP 40% OLP 10% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 44% NDP 39% OLP 10% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 44% NDP 39% OLP 10% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 46% PCPO 42% OLP 9% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Oshawa

OLP <1% PCPO 14% NDP 86% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 55% NDP 45% OLP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 58% NDP 42% OLP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 69% NDP 31% OLP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 72% NDP 28% OLP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 79% NDP 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 79% NDP 21% OLP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 84% NDP 16% OLP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 83% NDP 17% OLP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 62% NDP 38% OLP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 74% NDP 26% OLP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 80% NDP 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 80% NDP 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 82% NDP 18% OLP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 80% NDP 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 80% NDP 20% OLP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 70% NDP 30% OLP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 77% NDP 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 78% NDP 22% OLP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 72% NDP 28% OLP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 68% NDP 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 68% NDP 32% OLP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 67% NDP 33% OLP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 77% NDP 23% OLP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 76% NDP 24% OLP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 NDP 86% PCPO 14% OLP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Oshawa



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 45.0% 44.8% 42.1% 46% ± 0% PCPO 31.5% 41.8% 40.2% 42% ± 0% OLP 19.5% 7.9% 9.1% 9% ± 0% GPO 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 2% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 1% ± 0% IND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% ± 0%