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Ontario

Oshawa


MPP: French, Jennifer (NDP)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Toss up PCPO/NDP
Oshawa 42% ± 9%▲ PCPO 39% ± 9% NDP 10% ± 4% OLP 5% ± 3% GPO NDP 2022 42.1% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Oshawa 69%▲ PCPO 31%▼ NDP <1% OLP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Oshawa

OLP 10% ± 4% PCPO 42% ± 9% NDP 39% ± 9% GPO 5% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Oshawa 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 43% NDP 31% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 42% NDP 32% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 43% NDP 31% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 44% NDP 30% OLP 14% GPO 5% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 42% NDP 35% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 42% NDP 36% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 42% NDP 35% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 42% NDP 35% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 42% NDP 35% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 43% NDP 34% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 43% NDP 34% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 43% NDP 34% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 45% NDP 35% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 45% NDP 35% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 44% NDP 35% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 44% NDP 33% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 44% NDP 33% OLP 15% GPO 5% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 43% NDP 32% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 42% NDP 33% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 42% NDP 33% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 42% NDP 33% OLP 14% GPO 8% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 14% GPO 8% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 14% GPO 8% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 40% NDP 34% OLP 14% GPO 8% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 39% NDP 36% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 40% NDP 35% OLP 14% GPO 7% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 41% NDP 34% OLP 13% GPO 7% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 42% PCPO 40% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 43% PCPO 40% OLP 9% GPO 4% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 41% NDP 40% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 41% NDP 40% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 41% NDP 40% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 41% PCPO 40% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 43% PCPO 36% OLP 9% GPO 6% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 43% PCPO 36% OLP 10% GPO 6% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 43% PCPO 37% OLP 9% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 42% PCPO 38% OLP 9% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 44% PCPO 35% OLP 10% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 43% PCPO 37% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 42% PCPO 40% OLP 9% GPO 5% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 42% PCPO 39% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 42% PCPO 39% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 42% PCPO 38% OLP 12% GPO 5% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 40% PCPO 40% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 41% PCPO 40% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 40% PCPO 40% OLP 11% GPO 5% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 41% NDP 40% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 43% NDP 38% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 41% NDP 39% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 42% NDP 39% OLP 10% GPO 5% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Oshawa

OLP <1% PCPO 69% NDP 31% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 99% NDP 1% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 87% NDP 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 85% NDP 15% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 PCPO 88% NDP 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 PCPO 90% NDP 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 PCPO 89% NDP 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 92% NDP 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 93% NDP 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 94% NDP 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 94% NDP 6% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 95% NDP 5% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 93% NDP 7% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 PCPO 97% NDP 3% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 PCPO 98% NDP 2% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 PCPO 96% NDP 4% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 87% NDP 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 87% NDP 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 88% NDP 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 89% NDP 11% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 72% NDP 28% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 82% NDP 18% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 82% NDP 18% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 82% NDP 18% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 83% NDP 17% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 90% NDP 10% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 NDP 69% PCPO 31% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 NDP 67% PCPO 33% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 53% NDP 47% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 53% NDP 47% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 53% NDP 47% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 NDP 55% PCPO 45% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 NDP 88% PCPO 12% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 NDP 87% PCPO 13% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 NDP 81% PCPO 19% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 NDP 77% PCPO 23% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 NDP 92% PCPO 8% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 NDP 83% PCPO 17% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 NDP 65% PCPO 35% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 NDP 67% PCPO 33% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 NDP 64% PCPO 36% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 NDP 72% PCPO 28% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 NDP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 NDP 59% PCPO 41% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 NDP 51% PCPO 49% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 54% NDP 46% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 79% NDP 21% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 64% NDP 36% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 69% NDP 31% GPO <1% OLP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Oshawa



2014 2018 2022 Proj. NDP 45.0% 44.8% 42.1% 39% ± 9% PCPO 31.5% 41.8% 40.2% 42% ± 9% OLP 19.5% 7.9% 9.1% 10% ± 4% GPO 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 5% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 2% ± 2%