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Ontario

Etobicoke Centre


MPP: Surma, Kinga (PCPO)

Latest projection: November 12, 2024
Likely PCPO
Etobicoke Centre 48% ± 9% PCPO 35% ± 9%▼ OLP 8% ± 4% NDP 6% ± 3% GPO PCPO 2022 48.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | November 12, 2024
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Etobicoke Centre 98% PCPO 2% OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | November 12, 2024
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Etobicoke Centre

OLP 35% ± 9% PCPO 48% ± 9% NDP 8% ± 4% GPO 6% ± 3% Popular vote projection % | Etobicoke Centre 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 41% PCPO 40% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 41% PCPO 39% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 41% OLP 40% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 41% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 40% OLP 40% NDP 13% GPO 2% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 41% PCPO 40% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 40% PCPO 40% NDP 12% GPO 2% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 39% PCPO 39% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 39% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 40% PCPO 39% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 40% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 39% OLP 39% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 13% GPO 3% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 40% OLP 38% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 39% OLP 38% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 42% OLP 36% NDP 12% GPO 3% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO 49% OLP 34% NDP 9% GPO 4% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 48% OLP 34% NDP 9% GPO 5% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 47% OLP 35% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 44% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 7% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 44% OLP 36% NDP 9% GPO 7% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 45% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 45% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 43% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 45% OLP 35% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 48% OLP 34% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 46% OLP 36% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 46% OLP 37% NDP 9% GPO 6% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 42% PCPO 41% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 44% OLP 39% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 45% OLP 38% NDP 8% GPO 5% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 46% OLP 37% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 47% OLP 36% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 49% OLP 35% NDP 7% GPO 6% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 48% OLP 36% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 48% OLP 35% NDP 8% GPO 6% 2024-11-11

Odds of winning | Etobicoke Centre

OLP 2% PCPO 98% NDP <1% GPO <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2022-05-01 2022-09-01 2023► 2023-01-01 2023-05-01 2023-09-01 2024► 2024-01-01 2024-05-01 2024-09-01 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-05-01 2025-09-01 Election 2022 OLP PCPO NDP GPO November 12, 2024 2022-04-30 PCPO 56% OLP 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-04-30 2022-05-03 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-03 2022-05-04 PCPO 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-04 2022-05-05 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-05 2022-05-06 PCPO 54% OLP 46% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-06 2022-05-07 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-07 2022-05-08 OLP 52% PCPO 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-08 2022-05-09 OLP 57% PCPO 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-09 2022-05-10 OLP 62% PCPO 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-10 2022-05-11 PCPO 56% OLP 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-11 2022-05-12 PCPO 56% OLP 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-12 2022-05-13 PCPO 59% OLP 41% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-13 2022-05-14 PCPO 58% OLP 42% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-14 2022-05-15 PCPO 66% OLP 34% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-15 2022-05-16 PCPO 54% OLP 46% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-16 2022-05-17 OLP 56% PCPO 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-17 2022-05-18 OLP 53% PCPO 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-18 2022-05-19 OLP 50% PCPO 50% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-19 2022-05-20 OLP 50% PCPO 50% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-20 2022-05-21 PCPO 50% OLP 50% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-21 2022-05-22 OLP 52% PCPO 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-22 2022-05-23 PCPO 52% OLP 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-23 2022-05-24 PCPO 51% OLP 49% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-24 2022-05-25 PCPO 53% OLP 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-25 2022-05-26 PCPO 53% OLP 47% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-26 2022-05-27 PCPO 56% OLP 44% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-27 2022-05-28 PCPO 62% OLP 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-28 2022-05-29 PCPO 62% OLP 38% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-29 2022-05-30 PCPO 57% OLP 43% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-30 2022-05-31 PCPO 60% OLP 40% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-05-31 2022-06-01 PCPO 83% OLP 17% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-01 2022-06-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-06-03 2022-12-30 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2022-12-30 2023-02-15 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-02-15 2023-03-09 PCPO 97% OLP 3% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-09 2023-03-17 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-03-17 2023-04-16 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-04-16 2023-07-07 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-07 2023-07-22 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-22 2023-07-28 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-07-28 2023-08-26 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-08-26 2023-10-07 PCPO 84% OLP 16% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-07 2023-10-23 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-10-23 2023-12-01 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-01 2023-12-20 PCPO 96% OLP 4% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2023-12-20 2024-02-02 PCPO 94% OLP 6% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-02 2024-02-20 OLP 52% PCPO 48% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-02-20 2024-03-05 PCPO 79% OLP 21% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-03-05 2024-04-04 PCPO 89% OLP 11% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-04-04 2024-05-03 PCPO 93% OLP 7% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-05-03 2024-06-30 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-06-30 2024-07-29 PCPO 99% OLP 1% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-07-29 2024-10-09 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-10-09 2024-11-11 PCPO 98% OLP 2% GPO <1% NDP <1% 2024-11-11

Recent electoral history | Etobicoke Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 32.4% 42.7% 48.6% 48% ± 9% OLP 48.7% 34.4% 34.0% 35% ± 9% NDP 11.5% 18.0% 8.6% 8% ± 4% GPO 2.6% 2.3% 4.5% 6% ± 3% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 2% ± 2% ONP 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1% ± 1%