Etobicoke Centre


MPP elect: Kinga Surma (PCPO)
Latest projection: February 28, 2025
Likely PCPO

Candidates | Etobicoke Centre


PC Party of Ontario Kinga Surma
Liberal Party John Campbell
Ontario NDP Giulia Volpe
Green Party Brian Morris
New Blue Party Mario Bilusic
Canadians' Choice Paul Fromm
None of the Above Party Richard M. Kiernicki
Party for People with Special Needs Signe Miranda

Candidates listed here are on the Elections Ontario website.

Etobicoke Centre 48% ± 0%▼ PCPO 42% ± 0%▲ OLP 5% ± 0% NDP PCPO 2022 48.6% 338Canada Popular vote projection | February 28, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% Etobicoke Centre 94%▼ PCPO 6%▲ OLP <1% NDP Odds of winning | February 28, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.5%), likely (90% to 99.5%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).


Popular vote projection | Etobicoke Centre

OLP 42% ± 0% PCPO 48% ± 0% NDP 5% ± 0% Popular vote projection % | Etobicoke Centre 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO 51% OLP 34% NDP 7% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO 51% OLP 34% NDP 7% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO 54% OLP 33% NDP 7% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO 54% OLP 32% NDP 7% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO 54% OLP 33% NDP 7% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO 55% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO 54% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO 54% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO 55% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO 54% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO 54% OLP 33% NDP 6% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO 55% OLP 34% NDP 5% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO 55% OLP 34% NDP 5% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 6% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO 54% OLP 35% NDP 6% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 5% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO 55% OLP 34% NDP 5% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO 54% OLP 34% NDP 5% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO 55% OLP 34% NDP 5% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO 55% OLP 34% NDP 6% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO 55% OLP 34% NDP 5% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO 55% OLP 34% NDP 5% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO 55% OLP 34% NDP 5% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO 55% OLP 34% NDP 5% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 48% OLP 42% NDP 5% 2025-02-28

Odds of winning | Etobicoke Centre

OLP 6% PCPO 94% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025-02-01 2025-02-15 2025-03-01 Election 2025 Campaign begins OLP PCPO NDP February 28, 2025 2025-01-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-27 2025-01-29 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-29 2025-01-31 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-31 2025-02-02 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-03 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-03 2025-02-04 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-04 2025-02-05 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-05 2025-02-06 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-06 2025-02-07 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-07 2025-02-08 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-08 2025-02-09 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-10 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-10 2025-02-11 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-11 2025-02-12 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-12 2025-02-13 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-13 2025-02-14 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-14 2025-02-15 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-15 2025-02-16 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-17 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-17 2025-02-18 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-18 2025-02-19 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-19 2025-02-20 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-20 2025-02-21 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-21 2025-02-22 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-22 2025-02-23 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-02-24 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-24 2025-02-25 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-25 2025-02-26 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-26 2025-02-27 PCPO >99% OLP <1% NDP <1% 2025-02-27 2025-02-28 PCPO 94% OLP 6% NDP <1% 2025-02-28

Recent electoral history | Etobicoke Centre



2014 2018 2022 Proj. PCPO 32.4% 42.7% 48.6% 48% ± 0% OLP 48.7% 34.4% 34.0% 42% ± 0% NDP 11.5% 18.0% 8.6% 5% ± 0% GPO 2.6% 2.3% 4.5% 2% ± 0% NBPO 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 1% ± 0%