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Canada

Liberal Party of Canada



Latest update: May 5, 2024

LeaderJustin Trudeau
National popular vote in 202132.6%
Current vote projection24.0% ± 3.2%
Current number of MPsTBD
Current seat projection64 [47-88]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | May 5, 2024 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% Vote efficiency | LPC 338Canada ©2023 7.2 seat/% 64 [47-88] 24% ± 3% 2019 2021
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


× × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × × LPC 64 [47-88] May 5, 2024 ✓ Projected net gain × Projected net loss Pale square = Toss up NL 2/7 PEI 0/4 NS 3/11 NB 3/10 QC 25/78 ON 25/122 MB 4/14 SK 1/14 AB 0/37 BC 1/43 YK NWT NU
Projected gains and losses compared to 2021 results transposed onto new map.

Popular vote projection | May 5, 2024

17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 20.8% ▼ 24.0% ± 3.2% ▼ Max. 27.2% ▼ Probabilities % LPC

Seat projection | May 5, 2024

20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Min. 47 ▼ 64 ▼ Max. 88 ▼ Probabilities % LPC May 5, 2024

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Liberal Party of Canada



Rank Electoral districts Province Transposed
2021 winner		 Last projection Odds of winning
1. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe hold >99%
2. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe hold >99%
3. Bourassa LPC safe hold >99%
4. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold >99%
5. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold >99%
6. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe hold >99%
7. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe hold >99%
8. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold >99%
9. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold >99%
10. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold >99%
11. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe hold >99%
12. Scarborough North LPC safe hold >99%
13. Vimy LPC safe hold >99%
14. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold >99%
15. Winnipeg North LPC safe hold >99%
16. Mount Royal LPC safe hold >99%
17. Papineau LPC safe hold >99%
18. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe hold >99%
19. Beaches—East York LPC safe hold >99%
20. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe hold >99%
21. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe hold >99%
22. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold >99%
23. Outremont LPC safe hold >99%
24. Vaudreuil LPC safe hold >99%
25. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold >99%
26. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe hold >99%
27. Laval—Les-Îles LPC safe hold >99%
28. Gatineau LPC likely hold 99%
29. Beauséjour LPC likely hold 99%
30. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely hold 99%
31. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC likely hold 98%
32. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely hold 98%
33. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely hold 98%
34. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold 98%
35. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold 97%
36. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely hold 97%
37. Cape Spear LPC likely hold 97%
38. Surrey Newton LPC likely hold 96%
39. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC likely hold 96%
40. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC likely hold 95%
41. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely hold 95%
42. Winnipeg South LPC likely hold 94%
43. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC likely hold 94%
44. University—Rosedale LPC leaning hold 88%
45. Ajax LPC leaning hold 88%
46. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC leaning hold 86%
47. Brampton West LPC leaning hold 86%
48. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC leaning hold 81%
49. Halifax LPC leaning hold 79%
50. Don Valley West LPC leaning hold 79%
51. Moncton—Dieppe LPC leaning hold 77%
52. St. John’s East LPC leaning hold 77%
53. Halifax West LPC leaning hold 76%
54. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold 75%
55. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning hold 75%
56. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold 74%
57. Brampton East LPC leaning hold 72%
58. Orléans LPC leaning hold 71%
59. Brampton South LPC leaning hold 70%
60. Toronto—St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
61. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC 69%
62. Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC 55%
63. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC 51%
64. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP 50%
65. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ 47%
66. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP 44%
67. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC 43%
68. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP 42%
69. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC 41%
70. Madawaska—Restigouche Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
71. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC 40%
72. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC 37%
73. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC 34%
74. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC 32%
75. Québec Centre Toss up LPC/BQ 30%
76. Brampton North—Caledon CPC leaning gain 30%
77. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 30%
78. Sackville—Bedford—Preston CPC leaning gain 26%
79. Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC leaning gain 25%
80. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain 25%
81. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP 23%
82. Sherbrooke BQ leaning gain 23%
83. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain 23%
84. Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning gain 21%
85. Surrey Centre CPC leaning gain 21%
86. Davenport NDP leaning gain 19%
87. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning gain 18%
88. Cardigan CPC leaning gain 15%
89. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning gain 14%
90. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC leaning gain 13%
91. Louis-Hébert CPC leaning gain 13%
92. Willowdale CPC leaning gain 12%
93. Compton—Stanstead BQ leaning gain 12%
94. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain 11%
95. Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning gain 11%
96. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain 9%
97. Winnipeg West CPC likely hold 9%
98. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC likely gain 8%
99. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park NDP likely gain 8%
100. Charlottetown CPC likely gain 8%
101. Labrador CPC likely gain 8%
102. Calgary McKnight CPC likely gain 7%
103. Nepean CPC likely gain 7%
104. Egmont CPC likely gain 7%
105. London Centre Toss up CPC/NDP 7%
106. Yukon CPC leaning gain 7%
107. Spadina—Harbourfront NDP leaning gain 6%
108. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby CPC likely gain 6%
109. Avalon CPC likely gain 6%
110. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely hold 5%
111. Whitby CPC likely gain 4%
112. Vancouver Centre CPC likely gain 3%
113. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely gain 3%
114. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC likely gain 3%
115. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely gain 3%
116. Kings—Hants CPC likely gain 3%
117. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely gain 3%
118. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely hold 2%
119. York Centre CPC likely gain 2%
120. Oakville West CPC likely gain 2%
121. Richmond Hill South CPC likely gain 2%
122. Nunavut NDP likely hold 1%
123. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel LPC safe hold
2. Acadie—Bathurst LPC safe hold
3. Bourassa LPC safe hold
4. Saint-Laurent LPC safe hold
5. Honoré-Mercier LPC safe hold
6. Hull—Aylmer LPC safe hold
7. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount LPC safe hold
8. Ahuntsic-Cartierville LPC safe hold
9. Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs LPC safe hold
10. Brossard—Saint-Lambert LPC safe hold
11. Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle LPC safe hold
12. Scarborough North LPC safe hold
13. Vimy LPC safe hold
14. Lac-Saint-Louis LPC safe hold
15. Winnipeg North LPC safe hold
16. Mount Royal LPC safe hold
17. Papineau LPC safe hold
18. Humber River—Black Creek LPC safe hold
19. Beaches—East York LPC safe hold
20. Pierrefonds—Dollard LPC safe hold
21. Scarborough—Guildwood—Rouge Park LPC safe hold
22. Scarborough Southwest LPC safe hold
23. Outremont LPC safe hold
24. Vaudreuil LPC safe hold
25. Alfred-Pellan LPC safe hold
26. Scarborough—Woburn LPC safe hold
27. Laval—Les-Îles LPC safe hold
28. Gatineau LPC likely hold
29. Beauséjour LPC likely hold
30. York South—Weston—Etobicoke LPC likely hold
31. LaSalle—Émard—Verdun LPC likely hold
32. Winnipeg South Centre LPC likely hold
33. Markham—Thornhill LPC likely hold
34. Toronto Centre LPC likely hold
35. Etobicoke North LPC likely hold
36. Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester LPC likely hold
37. Cape Spear LPC likely hold
38. Surrey Newton LPC likely hold
39. St. Boniface—St. Vital LPC likely hold
40. Dartmouth—Cole Harbour LPC likely hold
41. Scarborough Centre—Don Valley East LPC likely hold
42. Winnipeg South LPC likely hold
43. Laurier—Sainte-Marie LPC likely hold
44. University—Rosedale LPC leaning hold
45. Ajax LPC leaning hold
46. Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi LPC leaning hold
47. Brampton West LPC leaning hold
48. Scarborough—Agincourt LPC leaning hold
49. Halifax LPC leaning hold
50. Don Valley West LPC leaning hold
51. Moncton—Dieppe LPC leaning hold
52. St. John’s East LPC leaning hold
53. Halifax West LPC leaning hold
54. Marc-Aurèle-Fortin LPC leaning hold
55. Saint-Maurice—Champlain LPC leaning hold
56. Mississauga Centre LPC leaning hold
57. Brampton East LPC leaning hold
58. Orléans LPC leaning hold
59. Brampton South LPC leaning hold
60. Toronto—St. Paul’s Toss up LPC/CPC
61. Ottawa South Toss up LPC/CPC
62. Mississauga—Malton Toss up LPC/CPC
63. Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Toss up LPC/CPC
64. Ottawa Centre Toss up LPC/NDP
65. Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est Toss up LPC/BQ
66. Northwest Territories Toss up LPC/NDP
67. Guelph Toss up LPC/CPC
68. Toronto—Danforth Toss up LPC/NDP
69. Don Valley North Toss up LPC/CPC
70. Madawaska—Restigouche Toss up LPC/CPC
71. Brampton—Chinguacousy Park Toss up LPC/CPC
72. Waterloo Toss up LPC/CPC
73. Ottawa West—Nepean Toss up LPC/CPC
74. Mississauga East—Cooksville Toss up LPC/CPC
75. Québec Centre Toss up LPC/BQ
76. Brampton North—Caledon CPC leaning gain
77. Thunder Bay—Superior North Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
78. Sackville—Bedford—Preston CPC leaning gain
79. Mississauga—Erin Mills CPC leaning gain
80. Brampton Centre CPC leaning gain
81. Kingston and the Islands Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP
82. Sherbrooke BQ leaning gain
83. Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne BQ leaning gain
84. Markham—Stouffville CPC leaning gain
85. Surrey Centre CPC leaning gain
86. Davenport NDP leaning gain
87. Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas CPC leaning gain
88. Cardigan CPC leaning gain
89. Prescott—Russell—Cumberland CPC leaning gain
90. Etobicoke—Lakeshore CPC leaning gain
91. Louis-Hébert CPC leaning gain
92. Willowdale CPC leaning gain
93. Compton—Stanstead BQ leaning gain
94. Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation BQ leaning gain
95. Pickering—Brooklin CPC leaning gain
96. Etobicoke Centre CPC likely gain
97. Winnipeg West CPC likely hold
98. Mississauga—Streetsville CPC likely gain
99. Taiaiako’n—Parkdale—High Park NDP likely gain
100. Charlottetown CPC likely gain
101. Labrador CPC likely gain
102. Calgary McKnight CPC likely gain
103. Nepean CPC likely gain
104. Egmont CPC likely gain
105. London Centre Toss up CPC/NDP
106. Yukon CPC leaning gain
107. Spadina—Harbourfront NDP leaning gain
108. Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby CPC likely gain
109. Avalon CPC likely gain
110. Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville BQ likely hold
111. Whitby CPC likely gain
112. Vancouver Centre CPC likely gain
113. Burlington North—Milton West CPC likely gain
114. Eglinton—Lawrence CPC likely gain
115. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek CPC likely gain
116. Kings—Hants CPC likely gain
117. Brome—Missisquoi BQ likely gain
118. Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj BQ likely hold
119. York Centre CPC likely gain
120. Oakville West CPC likely gain
121. Richmond Hill South CPC likely gain
122. Nunavut NDP likely hold
123. Hamilton Mountain Toss up CPC/NDP