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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: November 15, 2024

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection33.9% ± 3.6%
Current number of MNA's4
Current seat projection73 [60-84]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | November 15, 2024 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 4.2 seat/% 73 [60-84] 34% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | November 15, 2024

26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 30.4% ▼ 33.9% ± 3.6% ▼ Max. 37.5% ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | November 15, 2024

44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 89 94 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 60 ▼ Majority 63 seats 73 ▼ Max. 84 ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: November 15, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ hold >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ hold >99%
3. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ hold >99%
4. Gaspé Safe PQ gain >99%
5. Joliette Safe PQ gain >99%
6. Bonaventure Safe PQ gain >99%
7. Richelieu Safe PQ gain >99%
8. Verchères Safe PQ gain >99%
9. Rimouski Safe PQ gain >99%
10. Duplessis Safe PQ gain >99%
11. Bertrand Safe PQ gain >99%
12. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ gain >99%
13. Berthier Safe PQ gain >99%
14. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ gain >99%
15. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ gain >99%
16. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ gain >99%
17. Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain >99%
18. Taillon Safe PQ gain >99%
19. Prévost Safe PQ gain >99%
20. Jean-Talon Safe PQ gain >99%
21. René-Lévesque Safe PQ gain >99%
22. Labelle Safe PQ gain >99%
23. Chambly Safe PQ gain >99%
24. Argenteuil Safe PQ gain >99%
25. Terrebonne Safe PQ gain >99%
26. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ gain >99%
27. Borduas Safe PQ gain >99%
28. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain >99%
29. Iberville Safe PQ gain >99%
30. Vachon Likely PQ gain >99%
31. Charlesbourg Likely PQ gain >99%
32. Masson Likely PQ gain >99%
33. Sanguinet Likely PQ gain >99%
34. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ gain >99%
35. Les Plaines Likely PQ gain >99%
36. Dubuc Likely PQ gain >99%
37. Repentigny Likely PQ gain >99%
38. Beauharnois Likely PQ gain 99%
39. Jonquière Likely PQ gain 99%
40. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 98%
41. Chicoutimi Likely PQ gain 98%
42. Rousseau Likely PQ gain 98%
43. Roberval Likely PQ gain 97%
44. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Likely PQ gain 97%
45. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ gain 96%
46. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ gain 96%
47. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Likely PQ gain 95%
48. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ gain 93%
49. Montarville Likely PQ gain 93%
50. Côte-du-Sud Likely PQ gain 93%
51. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ gain 93%
52. Maskinongé Likely PQ gain 93%
53. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ gain 91%
54. Mirabel Likely PQ gain 91%
55. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning PQ gain 90%
56. Taschereau Leaning PQ gain 88%
57. Saint-François Leaning PQ gain 88%
58. Granby Leaning PQ gain 87%
59. Trois-Rivières Leaning PQ gain 84%
60. Blainville Leaning PQ gain 82%
61. Groulx Leaning PQ gain 79%
62. Lévis Leaning PQ gain 77%
63. Jean-Lesage Leaning PQ gain 76%
64. Montmorency Leaning PQ gain 73%
65. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ 70%
66. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 68%
67. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 67%
68. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ 66%
69. Maurice-Richard Toss up PQ/QS 65%
70. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 57%
71. Richmond Toss up PQ/CAQ 52%
72. Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ 50%
73. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 48%
74. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/PQ 44%
75. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ 43%
76. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 43%
77. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 43%
78. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 42%
79. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 36%
80. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 27%
81. L’Assomption Leaning CAQ hold 27%
82. Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 25%
83. La Peltrie PCQ leaning gain 23%
84. Chauveau Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 22%
85. Laporte Leaning LIB gain 22%
86. Bellechasse Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 20%
87. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 18%
88. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning hold 18%
89. Laval-des-Rapides Likely LIB gain 8%
90. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 8%
91. Châteauguay Leaning LIB gain 8%
92. Papineau Likely CAQ hold 5%
93. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain 3%
94. Sherbrooke QS likely hold 3%
95. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely hold 3%
96. Mille-Îles Likely LIB hold 3%
97. Vimont Likely LIB gain 2%
98. Hull Likely LIB gain 2%
99. Viau Leaning LIB hold 2%
100. Fabre Likely LIB gain 1%