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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: October 5, 2025

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection36.3% ± 3.8%
Current number of MNA's6
Current seat projection74 [69-80]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 5, 2025 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 1.6 seat/% 74 [69-80] 36% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | October 5, 2025

28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 32.5% ▼ 36.3% ± 3.8% ▼ Max. 40.2% ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | October 5, 2025

62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 63 seats Min. 69 ▼ 74 ▼ Max. 80 ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: October 5, 2025
Dstricts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ >99%
3. Joliette Safe PQ >99%
4. Terrebonne Safe PQ >99%
5. Gaspé Safe PQ >99%
6. Berthier Safe PQ >99%
7. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ >99%
8. Labelle Safe PQ >99%
9. René-Lévesque Safe PQ >99%
10. Bertrand Safe PQ >99%
11. Rimouski Safe PQ >99%
12. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ >99%
13. Bonaventure Safe PQ >99%
14. Jonquière Safe PQ >99%
15. Prévost Safe PQ >99%
16. Richelieu Safe PQ >99%
17. Chicoutimi Safe PQ >99%
18. Dubuc Safe PQ >99%
19. Roberval Safe PQ >99%
20. Verchères Safe PQ >99%
21. Duplessis Safe PQ >99%
22. Masson Safe PQ >99%
23. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ >99%
24. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ >99%
25. Rousseau Safe PQ >99%
26. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ >99%
27. Les Plaines Safe PQ >99%
28. Repentigny Safe PQ >99%
29. Argenteuil Safe PQ >99%
30. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ >99%
31. Borduas Safe PQ >99%
32. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ >99%
33. Deux-Montagnes Safe PQ >99%
34. Beauharnois Safe PQ >99%
35. Saint-Jean Safe PQ >99%
36. Mirabel Safe PQ >99%
37. Chambly Safe PQ >99%
38. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe PQ >99%
39. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Safe PQ >99%
40. Louis-Hébert Safe PQ >99%
41. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Safe PQ >99%
42. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Safe PQ >99%
43. Drummond–Bois-Francs Safe PQ >99%
44. Sanguinet Safe PQ >99%
45. Taillon Safe PQ >99%
46. Maskinongé Safe PQ >99%
47. Trois-Rivières Safe PQ >99%
48. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ >99%
49. Jean-Talon Likely PQ >99%
50. Groulx Likely PQ >99%
51. Blainville Likely PQ >99%
52. Jean-Lesage Likely PQ 99%
53. Johnson Likely PQ 99%
54. L’Assomption Likely PQ 99%
55. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ 99%
56. Arthabaska-L’Érable Likely PQ 98%
57. Côte-du-Sud Likely PQ 98%
58. Charlesbourg Likely PQ 98%
59. Lévis Likely PQ 98%
60. Taschereau Likely PQ 98%
61. Iberville Likely PQ 97%
62. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ 97%
63. Granby Likely PQ 96%
64. Vachon Likely PQ 93%
65. Champlain Likely PQ 93%
66. Rosemont Likely PQ 93%
67. Montarville Likely PQ 92%
68. Richmond Likely PQ 92%
69. Mégantic Likely PQ 91%
70. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ 87%
71. La Prairie Leaning PQ 85%
72. Saint-François Leaning PQ 77%
73. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Leaning PQ 72%
74. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/PQ 52%
75. Montmorency Toss up PQ/CPQ 45%
76. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CPQ 44%
77. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 36%
78. Portneuf PCQ leaning 23%
79. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS leaning 23%
80. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning 11%
81. La Peltrie PCQ likely 7%
82. Mercier QS likely 5%
83. Chauveau PCQ likely 5%
84. Orford Likely LIB 4%
85. Papineau Likely LIB 4%
86. Huntingdon Likely LIB 3%
87. Gatineau Likely LIB 3%
88. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 2%
89. Gouin QS likely 1%
90. Bellechasse PCQ likely 1%