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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: March 21, 2024

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection33.1% ± 3.9%
Current number of MNA's4
Current seat projection69 [50-83]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 21, 2024 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 5.2 seat/% 69 [50-83] 33% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | March 21, 2024

24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 29.2% ▼ 33.1% ± 3.9% ▼ Max. 37.0% ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | March 21, 2024

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 3% 2% 1% Min. 50 ▼ Majority 63 seats 69 ▼ Max. 83 ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: March 21, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ hold >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ hold >99%
3. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ hold >99%
4. Gaspé Safe PQ gain >99%
5. Richelieu Safe PQ gain >99%
6. Verchères Safe PQ gain >99%
7. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ gain >99%
8. Jean-Talon Safe PQ gain >99%
9. Bonaventure Safe PQ gain >99%
10. Joliette Safe PQ gain >99%
11. Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain >99%
12. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ gain >99%
13. Taillon Safe PQ gain >99%
14. Terrebonne Safe PQ gain >99%
15. Rimouski Safe PQ gain >99%
16. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ gain >99%
17. Chambly Safe PQ gain >99%
18. Charlesbourg Safe PQ gain >99%
19. Borduas Safe PQ gain >99%
20. Bertrand Safe PQ gain >99%
21. Montarville Safe PQ gain >99%
22. Vachon Safe PQ gain >99%
23. Sanguinet Safe PQ gain >99%
24. Masson Safe PQ gain >99%
25. Duplessis Safe PQ gain >99%
26. Les Plaines Safe PQ gain >99%
27. Deux-Montagnes Safe PQ gain >99%
28. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ gain >99%
29. Prévost Safe PQ gain >99%
30. Vanier-Les Rivières Safe PQ gain >99%
31. Berthier Safe PQ gain >99%
32. Repentigny Safe PQ gain >99%
33. Labelle Safe PQ gain >99%
34. René-Lévesque Safe PQ gain >99%
35. Beauharnois Likely PQ gain 99%
36. Mirabel Likely PQ gain 99%
37. Iberville Likely PQ gain 99%
38. Groulx Likely PQ gain 99%
39. Argenteuil Likely PQ gain 99%
40. Rousseau Likely PQ gain 98%
41. Montmorency Likely PQ gain 98%
42. Abitibi-Ouest Likely PQ gain 98%
43. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 97%
44. Blainville Likely PQ gain 95%
45. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely PQ gain 95%
46. Dubuc Leaning PQ gain 82%
47. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ gain 82%
48. Mégantic Leaning PQ gain 82%
49. Brome-Missisquoi Leaning PQ gain 80%
50. Saint-Hyacinthe Leaning PQ gain 76%
51. Lévis Leaning PQ gain 76%
52. Jonquière Leaning PQ gain 71%
53. Orford Toss up PQ/CAQ 68%
54. Richmond Toss up PQ/CAQ 68%
55. La Peltrie Toss up PQ/QCP 66%
56. Maskinongé Toss up PQ/CAQ 64%
57. Roberval Toss up PQ/CAQ 60%
58. Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ 59%
59. Ungava Toss up PQ/QS 58%
60. Huntingdon Toss up PQ/CAQ 57%
61. Drummond–Bois-Francs Toss up PQ/CAQ 57%
62. Chicoutimi Toss up PQ/CAQ 57%
63. Taschereau Toss up PQ/QS 56%
64. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 55%
65. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Toss up PQ/CAQ 55%
66. Abitibi-Est Toss up PQ/CAQ 54%
67. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 50%
68. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/PQ 49%
69. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ 48%
70. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ 45%
71. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 45%
72. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 38%
73. Sainte-Rose Toss up LIB/PQ 38%
74. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 36%
75. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Toss up PQ/QS 36%
76. Laval-des-Rapides Toss up LIB/PQ 36%
77. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 35%
78. Châteauguay Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 31%
79. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 30%
80. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 30%
81. Johnson Leaning CAQ hold 29%
82. Saint-François QS leaning gain 28%
83. Chauveau Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 27%
84. Champlain Leaning CAQ hold 26%
85. Chapleau Leaning CAQ hold 25%
86. Arthabaska Leaning CAQ hold 22%
87. Laporte Leaning LIB gain 20%
88. Papineau Leaning CAQ hold 18%
89. Maurice-Richard QS leaning hold 16%
90. Bellechasse Toss up PQ/CAQ/QCP 14%
91. Vimont Leaning LIB gain 13%
92. Rosemont QS likely hold 8%
93. Mille-Îles Likely LIB hold 7%
94. Hull Leaning LIB gain 5%
95. Fabre Likely LIB gain 5%
96. Bourassa-Sauvé Likely LIB hold 3%
97. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely hold 1%
98. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up CAQ/QCP 1%