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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: December 19, 2025

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection35.5% ± 3.9%
Current number of MNA's6
Current seat projection77 [68-85]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 19, 2025 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 2.7 seat/% [68-85] 36% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | December 19, 2025

27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 31.6% ▼ 35.5% ± 3.9% ▼ Max. 39.4% ▼ Probabilities % PQ December 19, 2025

Seat projection | December 19, 2025

57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 63 seats Min. 68 ▼ 77 ▼ Max. 85 ▼ Probabilities % PQ December 19, 2025

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: December 19, 2025
Dstricts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ >99%
3. Joliette Safe PQ >99%
4. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ >99%
5. Terrebonne Safe PQ >99%
6. Berthier Safe PQ >99%
7. Labelle Safe PQ >99%
8. Gaspé Safe PQ >99%
9. Bertrand Safe PQ >99%
10. Bonaventure Safe PQ >99%
11. René-Lévesque Safe PQ >99%
12. Rimouski Safe PQ >99%
13. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ >99%
14. Jonquière Safe PQ >99%
15. Prévost Safe PQ >99%
16. Roberval Safe PQ >99%
17. Dubuc Safe PQ >99%
18. Richelieu Safe PQ >99%
19. Duplessis Safe PQ >99%
20. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ >99%
21. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ >99%
22. Verchères Safe PQ >99%
23. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ >99%
24. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ >99%
25. Argenteuil Safe PQ >99%
26. Taillon Safe PQ >99%
27. Saint-Jean Safe PQ >99%
28. Chicoutimi Safe PQ >99%
29. Masson Safe PQ >99%
30. Deux-Montagnes Safe PQ >99%
31. Louis-Hébert Safe PQ >99%
32. Repentigny Safe PQ >99%
33. Les Plaines Safe PQ >99%
34. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ >99%
35. Chambly Safe PQ >99%
36. Jean-Talon Safe PQ >99%
37. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Safe PQ >99%
38. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Safe PQ >99%
39. Rousseau Safe PQ >99%
40. Sanguinet Safe PQ >99%
41. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ >99%
42. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Likely PQ >99%
43. Blainville Likely PQ >99%
44. Mirabel Likely PQ >99%
45. Maskinongé Likely PQ >99%
46. Beauharnois Likely PQ >99%
47. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ >99%
48. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ >99%
49. Trois-Rivières Likely PQ >99%
50. Charlesbourg Likely PQ 99%
51. Saint-François Likely PQ 99%
52. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ 99%
53. Groulx Likely PQ 99%
54. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ 99%
55. Lévis Likely PQ 99%
56. Arthabaska-L’Érable Likely PQ 99%
57. Sherbrooke Likely PQ 99%
58. Vachon Likely PQ 98%
59. Maurice-Richard Likely PQ 96%
60. Montarville Likely PQ 95%
61. Johnson Likely PQ 95%
62. Côte-du-Sud Likely PQ 95%
63. Taschereau Likely PQ 94%
64. Borduas Likely PQ 94%
65. Richmond Likely PQ 94%
66. Jean-Lesage Likely PQ 93%
67. Rosemont Leaning PQ 84%
68. Iberville Leaning PQ 75%
69. L’Assomption Leaning PQ 72%
70. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 67%
71. Montmorency Toss up PQ/CPQ 64%
72. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CPQ 63%
73. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 60%
74. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Toss up PQ/QS 55%
75. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 55%
76. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ 52%
77. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ 51%
78. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 49%
79. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ 43%
80. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 42%
81. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 41%
82. Laval-des-Rapides Toss up LIB/PQ 37%
83. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ 35%
84. Portneuf PCQ leaning 26%
85. Sainte-Rose Leaning LIB 21%
86. La Peltrie PCQ leaning 18%
87. Soulanges Leaning LIB 14%
88. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS leaning 14%
89. Chauveau PCQ leaning 13%
90. Chapleau Leaning LIB 10%
91. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely 7%
92. Bellechasse PCQ likely 2%
93. Mille-Îles Likely LIB 1%
94. Mercier QS likely 1%
95. Châteauguay Likely LIB 1%
96. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB 1%
97. Gouin QS likely 1%
98. Vimont Likely LIB 1%