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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: August 30, 2023

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection22.4% ± 3.3%
Current number of MNA's3
Current seat projection8 [2-19]

1. Matane-Matapédia 2. Camille-Laurin 3. Îles-de-la-Madeleine 4. Gaspé 5. Marie-Victorin 6. Charlesbourg 7. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 8. Jean-Talon 9. Louis-Hébert 10. Taschereau 11. Bonaventure 12. Montmorency 13. Vanier-Les Rivières 14. Duplessis 15. Jean-Lesage 16. Rimouski 17. La Peltrie 18. Joliette 19. Taillon 20. Abitibi-Ouest 21. Portneuf 22. Lévis 23. Bertrand 24. Rosemont 25. Saint-Jean 26. Laval-des-Rapides 27. Laporte 28. Prévost 29. Mille-Îles 30. Verchères 31. Lac-Saint-Jean 32. Chauveau 33. Berthier 34. Montarville 35. Ungava 36. Labelle 37. Saint-Jérôme 38. Maurice-Richard 39. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 40. Fabre 41. Argenteuil 42. Chambly 43. Côte-du-Sud 44. Vimont 45. Terrebonne 46. Hull 47. Sainte-Rose 48. Borduas 49. Nicolet-Bécancour 50. Deux-Montagnes 51. Châteauguay 52. Bellechasse 53. René-Lévesque 54. Orford 55. Mont-Royal -Outremont 56. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 57. Masson 58. Pointe-aux-Trembles 59. Rousseau 60. Roberval 61. Richelieu 62. Sanguinet 63. Groulx Majority: 63 seats 64. Repentigny 65. Mirabel 66. Anjou–Louis-Riel 67. Vaudreuil 68. Vachon 69. Lotbinière-Frontenac 70. Verdun 71. Blainville 72. Abitibi-Est 73. Les Plaines 74. Chomedey 75. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice 76. Richmond 77. Viau 78. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue 79. Mégantic 80. Bourassa-Sauvé 81. Beauharnois 82. La Pinière 83. Saint-Hyacinthe 84. Acadie 85. Brome-Missisquoi 86. Dubuc 87. Jonquière 88. Trois-Rivières 89. Drummond–Bois-Francs 90. Saint-François 91. Soulanges 92. Huntingdon 93. Iberville 94. Johnson 95. Pontiac 96. Sherbrooke 97. Maskinongé 98. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 99. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 100. Gatineau 101. Chicoutimi 102. Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 103. Marguerite-Bourgeoys 104. Marquette 105. La Prairie 106. Arthabaska 107. L’Assomption 108. Beauce-Nord 109. Papineau 110. Mercier 111. Champlain 112. Chapleau 113. Granby 114. Laurier-Dorion 115. Beauce-Sud 116. Westmount–Saint-Louis 117. Saint-Laurent 118. LaFontaine 119. Gouin 120. Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 121. Nelligan 122. Jeanne-Mance–Viger 123. D’Arcy-McGee 124. Robert-Baldwin 125. Jacques-Cartier PQ The path to 63 seats 338Canada Quebec projection August 30, 2023

× × PQ 8 [2-19] August 30, 2023 ✓ Projected net gain       × Projected net loss       Pale square = Toss up 338Canada ©2023 Montréal Montérégie Laval Laurentides Lanaudière Mauricie Outaouais Estrie Abitibi-T. Centre-du-Québec Capitale-Nationale Chaudière-App. Sag.-Lac. Côte-Nord Bas-St-Laurent-Gaspésie Nord-du-Québec

Vote projection | August 30, 2023

15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 19.1% 22.4% ± 3.3% Max. 25.7% Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | August 30, 2023

0 5 10 15 20 25 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 2 2022 3 seats 8 Max. 19 Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois



Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ hold >99%
2. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ hold >99%
3. Gaspé Likely PQ gain 96%
4. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Likely PQ hold 94%
5. Marie-Victorin Leaning PQ gain 76%
6. Charlesbourg Toss up PQ/CAQ 61%
7. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Toss up PQ/CAQ 53%
8. Jean-Talon Toss up PQ/CAQ 51%
9. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ 47%
10. Taschereau Toss up PQ/QS 47%
11. Bonaventure Toss up PQ/CAQ 39%
12. Duplessis Leaning CAQ hold 28%
13. Montmorency Leaning CAQ hold 27%
14. Vanier-Les Rivières Leaning CAQ hold 24%
15. Rimouski Leaning CAQ hold 23%
16. Jean-Lesage QS leaning hold 22%
17. Joliette Leaning CAQ hold 17%
18. Abitibi-Ouest Leaning CAQ hold 13%
19. Taillon Likely CAQ hold 10%
20. La Peltrie Toss up CAQ/QCP 8%
21. Lévis Likely CAQ hold 7%
22. Bertrand Likely CAQ hold 6%
23. Portneuf Leaning CAQ hold 4%
24. Rosemont QS likely hold 4%
25. Saint-Jean Likely CAQ hold 4%
26. Prévost Likely CAQ hold 3%
27. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely CAQ hold 3%
28. Ungava Leaning CAQ hold 1%
29. Verchères Likely CAQ hold 1%
30. Berthier Likely CAQ hold 1%
31. Labelle Likely CAQ hold 1%
Rank Electoral districts Projection
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ hold
2. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ hold
3. Gaspé Likely PQ gain
4. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Likely PQ hold
5. Marie-Victorin Leaning PQ gain
6. Charlesbourg Toss up PQ/CAQ
7. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Toss up PQ/CAQ
8. Jean-Talon Toss up PQ/CAQ
9. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ
10. Taschereau Toss up PQ/QS
11. Bonaventure Toss up PQ/CAQ
12. Duplessis Leaning CAQ hold
13. Montmorency Leaning CAQ hold
14. Vanier-Les Rivières Leaning CAQ hold
15. Rimouski Leaning CAQ hold
16. Jean-Lesage QS leaning hold
17. Joliette Leaning CAQ hold
18. Abitibi-Ouest Leaning CAQ hold
19. Taillon Likely CAQ hold
20. La Peltrie Toss up CAQ/QCP
21. Lévis Likely CAQ hold
22. Bertrand Likely CAQ hold
23. Portneuf Leaning CAQ hold
24. Rosemont QS likely hold
25. Saint-Jean Likely CAQ hold
26. Prévost Likely CAQ hold
27. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely CAQ hold
28. Ungava Leaning CAQ hold
29. Verchères Likely CAQ hold
30. Berthier Likely CAQ hold
31. Labelle Likely CAQ hold