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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: December 8, 2024

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection33.2% ± 3.5%
Current number of MNA's4
Current seat projection70 [55-81]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 8, 2024 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 4.4 seat/% 70 [55-81] 33% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | December 8, 2024

25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 29.7% ▼ 33.2% ± 3.5% ▼ Max. 36.8% ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | December 8, 2024

39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 89 94 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 55 ▼ Majority 63 seats 70 ▼ Max. 81 ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: December 8, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ hold >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ hold >99%
3. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ hold >99%
4. Gaspé Safe PQ gain >99%
5. Joliette Safe PQ gain >99%
6. Bonaventure Safe PQ gain >99%
7. Richelieu Safe PQ gain >99%
8. Verchères Safe PQ gain >99%
9. Rimouski Safe PQ gain >99%
10. Duplessis Safe PQ gain >99%
11. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ gain >99%
12. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ gain >99%
13. Bertrand Safe PQ gain >99%
14. Berthier Safe PQ gain >99%
15. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ gain >99%
16. Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain >99%
17. Taillon Safe PQ gain >99%
18. Jean-Talon Safe PQ gain >99%
19. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ gain >99%
20. Prévost Safe PQ gain >99%
21. René-Lévesque Safe PQ gain >99%
22. Labelle Safe PQ gain >99%
23. Chambly Safe PQ gain >99%
24. Terrebonne Safe PQ gain >99%
25. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ gain >99%
26. Borduas Safe PQ gain >99%
27. Argenteuil Safe PQ gain >99%
28. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain >99%
29. Charlesbourg Likely PQ gain >99%
30. Iberville Likely PQ gain >99%
31. Sanguinet Likely PQ gain >99%
32. Vachon Likely PQ gain >99%
33. Masson Likely PQ gain >99%
34. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ gain >99%
35. Les Plaines Likely PQ gain 99%
36. Repentigny Likely PQ gain 99%
37. Beauharnois Likely PQ gain 99%
38. Dubuc Likely PQ gain 99%
39. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 98%
40. Jonquière Likely PQ gain 98%
41. Rousseau Likely PQ gain 97%
42. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ gain 96%
43. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Likely PQ gain 94%
44. Roberval Likely PQ gain 93%
45. Chicoutimi Likely PQ gain 93%
46. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ gain 91%
47. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ gain 89%
48. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Leaning PQ gain 89%
49. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ gain 88%
50. Montarville Leaning PQ gain 88%
51. Mirabel Leaning PQ gain 88%
52. Drummond–Bois-Francs Leaning PQ gain 86%
53. Maskinongé Leaning PQ gain 86%
54. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning PQ gain 86%
55. Taschereau Leaning PQ gain 83%
56. Nicolet-Bécancour Leaning PQ gain 83%
57. Saint-François Leaning PQ gain 83%
58. Blainville Leaning PQ gain 78%
59. Groulx Leaning PQ gain 76%
60. Lévis Leaning PQ gain 75%
61. Trois-Rivières Leaning PQ gain 73%
62. Granby Leaning PQ gain 72%
63. Jean-Lesage Leaning PQ gain 70%
64. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 66%
65. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 64%
66. Maurice-Richard Toss up PQ/QS 63%
67. Montmorency Toss up PQ/CPQ 62%
68. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 58%
69. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ 55%
70. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/PQ 46%
71. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CPQ 42%
72. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 41%
73. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 40%
74. Richmond Toss up PQ/CAQ 39%
75. Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ 34%
76. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 31%
77. La Prairie Leaning CAQ hold 27%
78. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 27%
79. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 23%
80. L’Assomption Leaning CAQ hold 22%
81. Laporte Leaning LIB gain 20%
82. Champlain Leaning CAQ hold 18%
83. Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 17%
84. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning hold 17%
85. La Peltrie PCQ leaning gain 14%
86. Chauveau Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 14%
87. Bellechasse PCQ leaning gain 11%
88. Laval-des-Rapides Likely LIB gain 8%
89. Châteauguay Leaning LIB gain 7%
90. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up CAQ/CPQ 6%
91. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 3%
92. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain 3%
93. Papineau Likely CAQ hold 3%
94. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely hold 3%
95. Mille-Îles Likely LIB hold 2%
96. Vimont Likely LIB gain 2%
97. Sherbrooke QS likely hold 2%
98. Hull Likely LIB gain 2%
99. Viau Leaning LIB hold 1%
100. Fabre Likely LIB gain 1%