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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: May 16, 2025

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection33.4% ± 3.4%
Current number of MNA's5
Current seat projection74 [60-80]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | May 16, 2025 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 3.3 seat/% 74 [60-80] 33% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | May 16, 2025

26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 29.9% ▼ 33.4% ± 3.4% ▼ Max. 36.8% ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | May 16, 2025

48 53 58 63 68 73 78 83 88 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 60 ▼ Majority 63 seats 74 ▼ Max. 80 ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: May 16, 2025
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ >99%
3. Joliette Safe PQ >99%
4. Gaspé Safe PQ >99%
5. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ >99%
6. Bonaventure Safe PQ >99%
7. Bertrand Safe PQ >99%
8. Labelle Safe PQ >99%
9. Berthier Safe PQ >99%
10. Terrebonne Safe PQ >99%
11. René-Lévesque Safe PQ >99%
12. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ >99%
13. Rimouski Safe PQ >99%
14. Prévost Safe PQ >99%
15. Jonquière Safe PQ >99%
16. Duplessis Safe PQ >99%
17. Roberval Safe PQ >99%
18. Chicoutimi Safe PQ >99%
19. Argenteuil Safe PQ >99%
20. Verchères Safe PQ >99%
21. Jean-Talon Safe PQ >99%
22. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ >99%
23. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ >99%
24. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ >99%
25. Taillon Safe PQ >99%
26. Richelieu Safe PQ >99%
27. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ >99%
28. Saint-Jean Safe PQ >99%
29. Dubuc Safe PQ >99%
30. Louis-Hébert Safe PQ >99%
31. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ >99%
32. Masson Likely PQ >99%
33. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ >99%
34. Repentigny Likely PQ >99%
35. Les Plaines Likely PQ >99%
36. Taschereau Likely PQ >99%
37. Jean-Lesage Likely PQ 99%
38. Chambly Likely PQ 99%
39. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Likely PQ 99%
40. Charlesbourg Likely PQ 99%
41. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Likely PQ 99%
42. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ 99%
43. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ 99%
44. Rousseau Likely PQ 98%
45. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ 98%
46. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ 98%
47. Maskinongé Likely PQ 98%
48. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ 97%
49. Sanguinet Likely PQ 96%
50. Borduas Likely PQ 96%
51. Vachon Likely PQ 96%
52. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ 95%
53. Lévis Likely PQ 95%
54. Trois-Rivières Likely PQ 95%
55. Côte-du-Sud Likely PQ 95%
56. Saint-François Likely PQ 94%
57. Beauharnois Likely PQ 90%
58. Mirabel Likely PQ 90%
59. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ 84%
60. Richmond Leaning PQ 79%
61. Blainville Leaning PQ 79%
62. Groulx Leaning PQ 76%
63. Johnson Leaning PQ 73%
64. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 67%
65. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 66%
66. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 65%
67. Montmorency Toss up PQ/CPQ 60%
68. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 59%
69. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 58%
70. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 58%
71. Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ 56%
72. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 54%
73. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ 48%
74. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 47%
75. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ 46%
76. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CPQ 39%
77. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 38%
78. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 31%
79. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning 18%
80. Sherbrooke QS leaning 15%
81. Portneuf PCQ leaning 15%
82. Papineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 14%
83. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning 11%
84. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 9%
85. La Peltrie PCQ likely 6%
86. La Prairie Likely CAQ 6%
87. Bellechasse PCQ likely 4%
88. Chauveau PCQ likely 3%
89. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 2%
90. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB 2%
91. Hull Likely LIB 1%