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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: August 22, 2025

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection34.1% ± 3.7%
Current number of MNA's6
Current seat projection75 [66-78]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | August 22, 2025 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 2.0 seat/% 75 [66-78] 34% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | August 22, 2025

26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 30.5% ▼ 34.1% ± 3.7% ▼ Max. 37.8% ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | August 22, 2025

59 64 69 74 79 84 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 63 seats Min. 66 ▼ 75 ▼ Max. 78 ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: August 22, 2025
Dstricts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ >99%
3. Joliette Safe PQ >99%
4. Terrebonne Safe PQ >99%
5. Gaspé Safe PQ >99%
6. Berthier Safe PQ >99%
7. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ >99%
8. Labelle Safe PQ >99%
9. Bertrand Safe PQ >99%
10. René-Lévesque Safe PQ >99%
11. Bonaventure Safe PQ >99%
12. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ >99%
13. Rimouski Safe PQ >99%
14. Jonquière Safe PQ >99%
15. Prévost Safe PQ >99%
16. Richelieu Safe PQ >99%
17. Chicoutimi Safe PQ >99%
18. Dubuc Safe PQ >99%
19. Verchères Safe PQ >99%
20. Roberval Safe PQ >99%
21. Duplessis Safe PQ >99%
22. Masson Safe PQ >99%
23. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ >99%
24. Rousseau Safe PQ >99%
25. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ >99%
26. Les Plaines Safe PQ >99%
27. Repentigny Safe PQ >99%
28. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ >99%
29. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ >99%
30. Argenteuil Safe PQ >99%
31. Saint-Jean Safe PQ >99%
32. Chambly Safe PQ >99%
33. Deux-Montagnes Safe PQ >99%
34. Louis-Hébert Safe PQ >99%
35. Borduas Safe PQ >99%
36. Taillon Safe PQ >99%
37. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ >99%
38. Beauharnois Safe PQ >99%
39. Mirabel Safe PQ >99%
40. Sanguinet Safe PQ >99%
41. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Safe PQ >99%
42. Jean-Talon Safe PQ >99%
43. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ >99%
44. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Likely PQ >99%
45. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ >99%
46. Blainville Likely PQ >99%
47. Jean-Lesage Likely PQ >99%
48. Arthabaska-L’Érable Likely PQ >99%
49. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ >99%
50. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ >99%
51. Maskinongé Likely PQ >99%
52. Groulx Likely PQ >99%
53. Charlesbourg Likely PQ 99%
54. Lévis Likely PQ 99%
55. Taschereau Likely PQ 99%
56. Trois-Rivières Likely PQ 99%
57. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ 99%
58. Côte-du-Sud Likely PQ 97%
59. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ 95%
60. Vachon Likely PQ 95%
61. L’Assomption Likely PQ 95%
62. Johnson Likely PQ 93%
63. Montarville Likely PQ 92%
64. Granby Leaning PQ 89%
65. Richmond Leaning PQ 86%
66. Iberville Leaning PQ 84%
67. Mégantic Leaning PQ 83%
68. Champlain Leaning PQ 83%
69. Saint-François Leaning PQ 75%
70. La Prairie Leaning PQ 74%
71. Montmorency Toss up PQ/CPQ 69%
72. Maurice-Richard Toss up LIB/PQ 56%
73. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 52%
74. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CPQ 51%
75. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/PQ/QS 45%
76. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CPQ 40%
77. Ungava Leaning LIB 28%
78. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning 21%
79. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning 13%
80. La Peltrie PCQ likely 10%
81. Chauveau PCQ likely 8%
82. Orford Likely LIB 3%
83. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely 2%
84. Huntingdon Likely LIB 2%
85. Gatineau Likely LIB 2%
86. Bellechasse PCQ likely 1%
87. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 1%