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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: September 10, 2025

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection36.8% ± 3.8%
Current number of MNA's6
Current seat projection77 [70-81]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | September 10, 2025 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45% 46% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 1.6 seat/% 77 [70-81] 37% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | September 10, 2025

28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 33.0% ▼ 36.8% ± 3.8% ▼ Max. 40.7% ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | September 10, 2025

64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 70 ▼ 77 ▼ Max. 81 ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: September 10, 2025
Dstricts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ >99%
3. Joliette Safe PQ >99%
4. Terrebonne Safe PQ >99%
5. Gaspé Safe PQ >99%
6. Berthier Safe PQ >99%
7. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ >99%
8. Labelle Safe PQ >99%
9. René-Lévesque Safe PQ >99%
10. Bertrand Safe PQ >99%
11. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ >99%
12. Bonaventure Safe PQ >99%
13. Rimouski Safe PQ >99%
14. Jonquière Safe PQ >99%
15. Prévost Safe PQ >99%
16. Chicoutimi Safe PQ >99%
17. Richelieu Safe PQ >99%
18. Dubuc Safe PQ >99%
19. Roberval Safe PQ >99%
20. Verchères Safe PQ >99%
21. Duplessis Safe PQ >99%
22. Masson Safe PQ >99%
23. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ >99%
24. Rousseau Safe PQ >99%
25. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ >99%
26. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ >99%
27. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ >99%
28. Les Plaines Safe PQ >99%
29. Repentigny Safe PQ >99%
30. Argenteuil Safe PQ >99%
31. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ >99%
32. Borduas Safe PQ >99%
33. Deux-Montagnes Safe PQ >99%
34. Saint-Jean Safe PQ >99%
35. Beauharnois Safe PQ >99%
36. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Safe PQ >99%
37. Mirabel Safe PQ >99%
38. Chambly Safe PQ >99%
39. Saint-Hyacinthe Safe PQ >99%
40. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Safe PQ >99%
41. Louis-Hébert Safe PQ >99%
42. Drummond–Bois-Francs Safe PQ >99%
43. Maskinongé Safe PQ >99%
44. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Safe PQ >99%
45. Trois-Rivières Safe PQ >99%
46. Taillon Safe PQ >99%
47. Sanguinet Safe PQ >99%
48. Jean-Talon Safe PQ >99%
49. Nicolet-Bécancour Safe PQ >99%
50. Johnson Likely PQ >99%
51. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ >99%
52. Groulx Likely PQ >99%
53. Charlesbourg Likely PQ >99%
54. Blainville Likely PQ >99%
55. L’Assomption Likely PQ >99%
56. Jean-Lesage Likely PQ >99%
57. Lévis Likely PQ >99%
58. Iberville Likely PQ 99%
59. Taschereau Likely PQ 99%
60. Granby Likely PQ 99%
61. Arthabaska-L’Érable Likely PQ 99%
62. Côte-du-Sud Likely PQ 99%
63. Champlain Likely PQ 98%
64. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ 97%
65. Vachon Likely PQ 95%
66. Mégantic Likely PQ 94%
67. Richmond Likely PQ 93%
68. Montarville Likely PQ 92%
69. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ 89%
70. La Prairie Leaning PQ 86%
71. Rosemont Leaning PQ 85%
72. Saint-François Leaning PQ 84%
73. Montmorency Leaning PQ 80%
74. Sherbrooke Toss up LIB/PQ 64%
75. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CPQ 64%
76. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Toss up PQ/QS 56%
77. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CPQ 52%
78. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 45%
79. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning 23%
80. La Peltrie PCQ leaning 17%
81. Chauveau PCQ leaning 15%
82. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS leaning 15%
83. Orford Likely LIB 6%
84. Huntingdon Likely LIB 5%
85. Papineau Likely LIB 5%
86. Gatineau Likely LIB 4%
87. Mercier QS likely 4%
88. Brome-Missisquoi Likely LIB 3%
89. Bellechasse PCQ likely 3%
90. Gouin QS likely 1%