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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: February 6, 2025

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection31.5% ± 3.4%
Current number of MNA's4
Current seat projection64 [52-76]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | February 6, 2025 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 4.1 seat/% 64 [52-76] 32% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | February 6, 2025

24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 28.1% ▼ 31.5% ± 3.4% ▼ Max. 34.9% ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | February 6, 2025

37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 52 ▼ Majority 63 seats 64 ▼ Max. 76 ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: February 6, 2025
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ hold >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ hold >99%
3. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ hold >99%
4. Gaspé Safe PQ gain >99%
5. Joliette Safe PQ gain >99%
6. Bonaventure Safe PQ gain >99%
7. Rimouski Safe PQ gain >99%
8. Verchères Safe PQ gain >99%
9. Duplessis Safe PQ gain >99%
10. Bertrand Safe PQ gain >99%
11. Berthier Safe PQ gain >99%
12. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ gain >99%
13. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ gain >99%
14. Jean-Talon Safe PQ gain >99%
15. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ gain >99%
16. Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain >99%
17. Taillon Safe PQ gain >99%
18. Richelieu Safe PQ gain >99%
19. Jonquière Safe PQ gain >99%
20. Prévost Safe PQ gain >99%
21. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ gain >99%
22. René-Lévesque Safe PQ gain >99%
23. Labelle Safe PQ gain >99%
24. Roberval Safe PQ gain >99%
25. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ gain >99%
26. Argenteuil Safe PQ gain >99%
27. Chicoutimi Likely PQ gain >99%
28. Chambly Likely PQ gain >99%
29. Dubuc Likely PQ gain 99%
30. Terrebonne Likely PQ gain 99%
31. Borduas Likely PQ gain 99%
32. Taschereau Likely PQ gain 99%
33. Sanguinet Likely PQ gain 98%
34. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely PQ gain 98%
35. Charlesbourg Likely PQ gain 97%
36. Masson Likely PQ gain 97%
37. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ gain 97%
38. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 97%
39. Vachon Likely PQ gain 97%
40. Jean-Lesage Likely PQ gain 96%
41. Les Plaines Likely PQ gain 96%
42. Repentigny Likely PQ gain 94%
43. Beauharnois Likely PQ gain 93%
44. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Likely PQ gain 91%
45. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ gain 91%
46. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning PQ gain 88%
47. Saint-Hyacinthe Leaning PQ gain 88%
48. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ gain 87%
49. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Leaning PQ gain 85%
50. Rousseau Leaning PQ gain 85%
51. Iberville Leaning PQ gain 85%
52. Côte-du-Sud Leaning PQ gain 85%
53. Drummond–Bois-Francs Leaning PQ gain 82%
54. Maskinongé Leaning PQ gain 82%
55. Saint-François Leaning PQ gain 80%
56. Nicolet-Bécancour Leaning PQ gain 79%
57. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ gain 78%
58. Lévis Toss up PQ/CAQ 70%
59. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 68%
60. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 68%
61. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 67%
62. Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ 62%
63. Mirabel Toss up PQ/CAQ 62%
64. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 52%
65. Blainville Toss up PQ/CAQ 48%
66. Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ 47%
67. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ 44%
68. Richmond Toss up PQ/CAQ 34%
69. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 33%
70. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 32%
71. Johnson Leaning CAQ hold 29%
72. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 25%
73. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning hold 25%
74. Montmorency PCQ leaning gain 25%
75. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 21%
76. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 20%
77. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 15%
78. Portneuf PCQ leaning gain 15%
79. Champlain Leaning CAQ hold 14%
80. La Prairie Likely CAQ hold 8%
81. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB gain 7%
82. L’Assomption Likely CAQ hold 6%
83. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely hold 5%
84. Sherbrooke QS likely hold 5%
85. Bellechasse PCQ likely gain 3%
86. Chauveau PCQ likely gain 2%
87. Papineau Likely CAQ hold 2%
88. La Peltrie PCQ likely gain 2%
89. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 2%
90. Soulanges Toss up LIB/CAQ 1%
91. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ likely gain 1%
92. Laporte Likely LIB gain 1%
93. Laval-des-Rapides Likely LIB gain 1%
94. Mercier QS likely hold 1%
95. Hull Likely LIB gain 1%