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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: March 18, 2025

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection31.8% ± 3.4%
Current number of MNA's5
Current seat projection65 [49-73]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | March 18, 2025 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 3.9 seat/% 65 [49-73] 32% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | March 18, 2025

24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 28.4% ▼ 31.8% ± 3.4% ▼ Max. 35.2% ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | March 18, 2025

34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 49 ▼ Majority 63 seats 65 ▼ Max. 73 ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: March 18, 2025
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ hold >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ hold >99%
3. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ hold >99%
4. Joliette Safe PQ gain >99%
5. Gaspé Safe PQ gain >99%
6. Terrebonne Safe PQ gain >99%
7. Bonaventure Safe PQ gain >99%
8. Bertrand Safe PQ gain >99%
9. Labelle Safe PQ gain >99%
10. Berthier Safe PQ gain >99%
11. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ gain >99%
12. Rimouski Safe PQ gain >99%
13. Prévost Safe PQ gain >99%
14. Duplessis Safe PQ gain >99%
15. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ gain >99%
16. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ gain >99%
17. Taillon Safe PQ gain >99%
18. Jean-Talon Safe PQ gain >99%
19. Verchères Safe PQ gain >99%
20. Argenteuil Safe PQ gain >99%
21. Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain >99%
22. Richelieu Safe PQ gain >99%
23. Jonquière Safe PQ gain >99%
24. René-Lévesque Safe PQ gain >99%
25. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ gain >99%
26. Roberval Safe PQ gain >99%
27. Masson Likely PQ gain >99%
28. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ gain >99%
29. Les Plaines Likely PQ gain >99%
30. Repentigny Likely PQ gain >99%
31. Taschereau Likely PQ gain 99%
32. Chicoutimi Likely PQ gain 99%
33. Abitibi-Ouest Likely PQ gain 99%
34. Chambly Likely PQ gain 99%
35. Dubuc Likely PQ gain 99%
36. Rousseau Likely PQ gain 98%
37. Jean-Lesage Likely PQ gain 97%
38. Vachon Likely PQ gain 97%
39. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely PQ gain 96%
40. Sanguinet Likely PQ gain 96%
41. Borduas Likely PQ gain 95%
42. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 95%
43. Mirabel Likely PQ gain 91%
44. Maurice-Richard Leaning PQ gain 89%
45. Beauharnois Leaning PQ gain 88%
46. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ gain 85%
47. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Leaning PQ gain 84%
48. Blainville Leaning PQ gain 82%
49. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ gain 80%
50. Groulx Leaning PQ gain 80%
51. Charlesbourg Leaning PQ gain 80%
52. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Leaning PQ gain 77%
53. Saint-Hyacinthe Leaning PQ gain 74%
54. Maskinongé Leaning PQ gain 72%
55. Drummond–Bois-Francs Leaning PQ gain 72%
56. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 68%
57. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ 61%
58. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CPQ 61%
59. Saint-François Toss up PQ/CAQ 60%
60. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ 59%
61. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 56%
62. Lévis Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 54%
63. Iberville Toss up PQ/CAQ 53%
64. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 50%
65. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 50%
66. Montarville Toss up PQ/CAQ 50%
67. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ 33%
68. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 33%
69. L’Assomption Leaning CAQ hold 26%
70. Richmond Leaning CAQ hold 26%
71. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 20%
72. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 20%
73. Johnson Leaning CAQ hold 18%
74. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 18%
75. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning hold 17%
76. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 13%
77. Champlain Likely CAQ hold 8%
78. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ leaning gain 7%
79. Sherbrooke QS likely hold 6%
80. Anjou–Louis-Riel Likely LIB gain 6%
81. La Prairie Likely CAQ hold 5%
82. Montmorency PCQ likely gain 4%
83. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely hold 2%
84. Chapleau Toss up LIB/CAQ 1%
85. Portneuf PCQ likely gain 1%
86. Papineau Likely CAQ hold 1%
87. Laporte Likely LIB gain 1%
88. Soulanges Toss up LIB/CAQ 1%
89. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning gain 1%
90. Laval-des-Rapides Likely LIB gain 1%