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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: June 17, 2024

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection32.0% ± 3.5%
Current number of MNA's4
Current seat projection61 [45-75]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | June 17, 2024 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 5.3 seat/% 61 [45-75] 32% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | June 17, 2024

24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 28.5% ▼ 32.0% ± 3.5% ▼ Max. 35.5% ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | June 17, 2024

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 3% 2% 1% Min. 45 ▼ 61 ▼ Majority 63 seats Max. 75 ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: June 17, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ hold >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ hold >99%
3. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ hold >99%
4. Gaspé Safe PQ gain >99%
5. Richelieu Safe PQ gain >99%
6. Bonaventure Safe PQ gain >99%
7. Joliette Safe PQ gain >99%
8. Verchères Safe PQ gain >99%
9. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ gain >99%
10. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ gain >99%
11. Rimouski Safe PQ gain >99%
12. Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain >99%
13. Taillon Safe PQ gain >99%
14. Jean-Talon Safe PQ gain >99%
15. Bertrand Safe PQ gain >99%
16. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ gain >99%
17. Duplessis Safe PQ gain >99%
18. Berthier Safe PQ gain >99%
19. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ gain >99%
20. Chambly Safe PQ gain >99%
21. Labelle Safe PQ gain >99%
22. Terrebonne Safe PQ gain >99%
23. Prévost Safe PQ gain >99%
24. Borduas Safe PQ gain >99%
25. René-Lévesque Safe PQ gain >99%
26. Iberville Safe PQ gain >99%
27. Vachon Likely PQ gain 99%
28. Abitibi-Ouest Likely PQ gain 99%
29. Sanguinet Likely PQ gain 99%
30. Masson Likely PQ gain 99%
31. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ gain 99%
32. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely PQ gain 99%
33. Argenteuil Likely PQ gain 99%
34. Les Plaines Likely PQ gain 99%
35. Repentigny Likely PQ gain 98%
36. Montarville Likely PQ gain 98%
37. Beauharnois Likely PQ gain 98%
38. Rousseau Likely PQ gain 94%
39. Dubuc Likely PQ gain 92%
40. Mirabel Likely PQ gain 90%
41. Charlesbourg Leaning PQ gain 89%
42. Jonquière Leaning PQ gain 88%
43. Chicoutimi Leaning PQ gain 76%
44. Roberval Leaning PQ gain 76%
45. Taschereau Leaning PQ gain 75%
46. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ gain 73%
47. Vanier-Les Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 68%
48. Blainville Toss up PQ/CAQ 67%
49. Abitibi-Est Toss up PQ/CAQ 66%
50. Saint-Hyacinthe Toss up PQ/CAQ 66%
51. Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ 64%
52. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Toss up PQ/CAQ 63%
53. Louis-Hébert Toss up PQ/CAQ 61%
54. Montmorency Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 59%
55. Maskinongé Toss up PQ/CAQ 57%
56. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 57%
57. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ 56%
58. Drummond–Bois-Francs Toss up PQ/CAQ 56%
59. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS 54%
60. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ 53%
61. Huntingdon Toss up PQ/CAQ 52%
62. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 45%
63. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 44%
64. Maurice-Richard Toss up PQ/QS 38%
65. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 38%
66. Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ 35%
67. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up PQ/CAQ 33%
68. Saint-François Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS 33%
69. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 31%
70. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/PQ 31%
71. Mégantic Toss up PQ/CAQ 31%
72. Richmond Toss up PQ/CAQ 31%
73. Lévis Leaning CAQ hold 28%
74. Arthabaska Leaning CAQ hold 28%
75. Rosemont QS leaning hold 25%
76. La Prairie Leaning CAQ hold 21%
77. Laporte Leaning LIB gain 21%
78. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 21%
79. L’Assomption Leaning CAQ hold 16%
80. Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 15%
81. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 14%
82. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning LIB gain 12%
83. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Leaning CAQ hold 10%
84. La Peltrie Toss up CAQ/CPQ 7%
85. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely hold 6%
86. Gatineau Toss up LIB/CAQ 5%
87. Châteauguay Toss up LIB/CAQ 4%
88. Mille-Îles Likely LIB hold 2%
89. Vimont Likely LIB gain 2%
90. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain 2%
91. Chauveau Toss up CAQ/CPQ 2%
92. Chapleau Leaning CAQ hold 2%
93. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up CAQ/CPQ 1%
94. Fabre Likely LIB gain 1%
95. Bellechasse Toss up CAQ/CPQ 1%
96. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely hold 1%
97. Papineau Likely CAQ hold 1%