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Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: October 4, 2024

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection31.7% ± 3.5%
Current number of MNA's4
Current seat projection63 [46-77]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | October 4, 2024 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 5.0 seat/% 63 [46-77] 32% ± 3% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | October 4, 2024

24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 28.2% ▼ 31.7% ± 3.5% ▼ Max. 35.2% ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | October 4, 2024

27 32 37 42 47 52 57 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 3% 2% 1% Min. 46 ▼ Majority 63 seats 63 ▼ Max. 77 ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: October 4, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ hold >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ hold >99%
3. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ hold >99%
4. Gaspé Safe PQ gain >99%
5. Joliette Safe PQ gain >99%
6. Bonaventure Safe PQ gain >99%
7. Richelieu Safe PQ gain >99%
8. Verchères Safe PQ gain >99%
9. Rimouski Safe PQ gain >99%
10. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ gain >99%
11. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ gain >99%
12. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ gain >99%
13. Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain >99%
14. Taillon Safe PQ gain >99%
15. Jean-Talon Safe PQ gain >99%
16. Bertrand Safe PQ gain >99%
17. Duplessis Safe PQ gain >99%
18. Berthier Safe PQ gain >99%
19. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ gain >99%
20. Prévost Safe PQ gain >99%
21. Labelle Safe PQ gain >99%
22. Iberville Safe PQ gain >99%
23. René-Lévesque Safe PQ gain >99%
24. Chambly Safe PQ gain >99%
25. Terrebonne Safe PQ gain >99%
26. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ gain >99%
27. Borduas Safe PQ gain >99%
28. Argenteuil Likely PQ gain 99%
29. Lac-Saint-Jean Likely PQ gain 99%
30. Sanguinet Likely PQ gain 99%
31. Vachon Likely PQ gain 99%
32. Masson Likely PQ gain 98%
33. Charlesbourg Likely PQ gain 98%
34. Deux-Montagnes Likely PQ gain 98%
35. Les Plaines Likely PQ gain 97%
36. Repentigny Likely PQ gain 96%
37. Beauharnois Likely PQ gain 96%
38. Dubuc Likely PQ gain 95%
39. Jonquière Likely PQ gain 92%
40. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 90%
41. Rousseau Leaning PQ gain 90%
42. Vanier-Les Rivières Leaning PQ gain 83%
43. Chicoutimi Leaning PQ gain 83%
44. Roberval Leaning PQ gain 82%
45. Taschereau Leaning PQ gain 81%
46. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Leaning PQ gain 79%
47. Montarville Leaning PQ gain 76%
48. Saint-Hyacinthe Leaning PQ gain 74%
49. Abitibi-Est Leaning PQ gain 73%
50. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Leaning PQ gain 71%
51. Mirabel Leaning PQ gain 71%
52. Maskinongé Toss up PQ/CAQ 66%
53. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS 66%
54. Drummond–Bois-Francs Toss up PQ/CAQ 65%
55. Côte-du-Sud Toss up PQ/CAQ 64%
56. Nicolet-Bécancour Toss up PQ/CAQ 62%
57. Jean-Lesage Toss up PQ/QS 61%
58. Blainville Toss up PQ/CAQ 54%
59. Montmorency Toss up PQ/CPQ 54%
60. Groulx Toss up PQ/CAQ 53%
61. Granby Toss up PQ/CAQ 52%
62. Ungava Toss up LIB/PQ 52%
63. Lévis Toss up PQ/CAQ 50%
64. Maurice-Richard Toss up PQ/QS 48%
65. Trois-Rivières Toss up PQ/CAQ 46%
66. Saint-François Toss up PQ/CAQ/QS 46%
67. Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ 44%
68. Arthabaska Toss up PQ/CAQ 43%
69. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 40%
70. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 38%
71. Huntingdon Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 33%
72. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 32%
73. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/PQ 31%
74. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 28%
75. Rosemont QS leaning hold 27%
76. Mégantic Leaning CAQ hold 26%
77. Richmond Leaning CAQ hold 25%
78. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 15%
79. La Prairie Leaning CAQ hold 13%
80. Laporte Leaning LIB gain 13%
81. La Peltrie PCQ leaning gain 10%
82. L’Assomption Likely CAQ hold 9%
83. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS likely hold 9%
84. Soulanges Toss up LIB/CAQ 8%
85. Gatineau Toss up LIB/CAQ 8%
86. Bellechasse Toss up CAQ/CPQ 7%
87. Chauveau Toss up CAQ/CPQ 6%
88. Laval-des-Rapides Likely LIB gain 4%
89. Châteauguay Leaning LIB gain 2%
90. Chapleau Leaning CAQ hold 2%
91. Lotbinière-Frontenac Toss up CAQ/CPQ 2%
92. Mille-Îles Likely LIB hold 1%
93. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely hold 1%
94. Vimont Likely LIB gain 1%
95. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain 1%
96. Sherbrooke QS likely hold 1%
97. Hull Likely LIB gain 1%
98. Viau Leaning LIB hold 1%