logo
logo
Quebec

Parti Québécois





Last update: December 4, 2024

LeaderPaul Saint-Pierre-Plamondon
National popular vote in 202214.6%
Current vote projection34.7% ± 3.6%
Current number of MNA's4
Current seat projection75 [65-86]

Seat projection Popular vote projection | December 4, 2024 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% Majority: 63 seats Vote efficiency | PQ 338Canada ©2023 3.7 seat/% 75 [65-86] 35% ± 4% 2018 2022
Note: The seats-per-vote function, or vote efficiency, is not a linear function, but can be approximated as one over narrow vote intervals.


Vote projection | December 4, 2024

27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 41% 42% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Min. 31.1% ▼ 34.7% ± 3.6% ▼ Max. 38.3% ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Seat projection | December 4, 2024

51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Majority 63 seats Min. 65 ▼ 75 ▼ Max. 86 ▼ Probabilities % PQ

Ranked list of favourable electoral districts | Parti Québécois


Last update: December 4, 2024
Rank Electoral districts Current party Last projection Odds of winning
1. Matane-Matapédia Safe PQ hold >99%
2. Îles-de-la-Madeleine Safe PQ hold >99%
3. Camille-Laurin Safe PQ hold >99%
4. Gaspé Safe PQ gain >99%
5. Joliette Safe PQ gain >99%
6. Bonaventure Safe PQ gain >99%
7. René-Lévesque Safe PQ gain >99%
8. Richelieu Safe PQ gain >99%
9. Verchères Safe PQ gain >99%
10. Rimouski Safe PQ gain >99%
11. Duplessis Safe PQ gain >99%
12. Bertrand Safe PQ gain >99%
13. Labelle Safe PQ gain >99%
14. Berthier Safe PQ gain >99%
15. Marie-Victorin Safe PQ gain >99%
16. Pointe-aux-Trembles Safe PQ gain >99%
17. Saint-Jérôme Safe PQ gain >99%
18. Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré Safe PQ gain >99%
19. Abitibi-Ouest Safe PQ gain >99%
20. Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain >99%
21. Prévost Safe PQ gain >99%
22. Taillon Safe PQ gain >99%
23. Lac-Saint-Jean Safe PQ gain >99%
24. Jean-Talon Safe PQ gain >99%
25. Chambly Safe PQ gain >99%
26. Argenteuil Safe PQ gain >99%
27. Borduas Safe PQ gain >99%
28. Terrebonne Safe PQ gain >99%
29. Iberville Safe PQ gain >99%
30. Charlesbourg Safe PQ gain >99%
31. Vachon Safe PQ gain >99%
32. Sanguinet Safe PQ gain >99%
33. Masson Safe PQ gain >99%
34. Deux-Montagnes Safe PQ gain >99%
35. Dubuc Likely PQ gain >99%
36. Repentigny Likely PQ gain >99%
37. Les Plaines Likely PQ gain >99%
38. Jonquière Likely PQ gain >99%
39. Beauharnois Likely PQ gain >99%
40. Louis-Hébert Likely PQ gain 99%
41. Laviolette-Saint-Maurice Likely PQ gain 99%
42. Chicoutimi Likely PQ gain 99%
43. Rousseau Likely PQ gain 99%
44. Roberval Likely PQ gain 99%
45. Vanier-Les Rivières Likely PQ gain 99%
46. Saint-Hyacinthe Likely PQ gain 99%
47. Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata Likely PQ gain 98%
48. Côte-du-Sud Likely PQ gain 97%
49. Abitibi-Est Likely PQ gain 97%
50. Drummond–Bois-Francs Likely PQ gain 97%
51. Maskinongé Likely PQ gain 97%
52. Nicolet-Bécancour Likely PQ gain 96%
53. Mirabel Likely PQ gain 96%
54. Saint-François Likely PQ gain 96%
55. Montarville Likely PQ gain 96%
56. Granby Likely PQ gain 94%
57. Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue Likely PQ gain 94%
58. Trois-Rivières Likely PQ gain 93%
59. Blainville Likely PQ gain 91%
60. Taschereau Leaning PQ gain 90%
61. Groulx Leaning PQ gain 89%
62. Lévis Leaning PQ gain 88%
63. Jean-Lesage Leaning PQ gain 83%
64. Chutes-de-la-Chaudière Leaning PQ gain 82%
65. Mégantic Leaning PQ gain 81%
66. Huntingdon Leaning PQ gain 77%
67. Montmorency Leaning PQ gain 76%
68. Ungava Leaning PQ gain 73%
69. Richmond Leaning PQ gain 73%
70. Arthabaska Leaning PQ gain 72%
71. Johnson Toss up PQ/CAQ 68%
72. Maurice-Richard Toss up PQ/QS 67%
73. Portneuf Toss up PQ/CPQ 64%
74. Brome-Missisquoi Toss up LIB/PQ 56%
75. Anjou–Louis-Riel Toss up LIB/PQ 50%
76. Champlain Toss up PQ/CAQ 48%
77. Orford Toss up LIB/PQ 47%
78. La Prairie Toss up PQ/CAQ 46%
79. Rosemont Toss up PQ/QS 45%
80. L’Assomption Toss up PQ/CAQ 40%
81. Gatineau Toss up LIB/PQ 39%
82. Chauveau Toss up PQ/CAQ/CPQ 32%
83. Laporte Leaning LIB gain 27%
84. Bellechasse Toss up PQ/CPQ 25%
85. Soulanges Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 25%
86. La Peltrie PCQ leaning gain 24%
87. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve QS leaning hold 20%
88. Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ leaning gain 16%
89. Papineau Leaning CAQ hold 14%
90. Chapleau Toss up LIB/PQ/CAQ 13%
91. Châteauguay Leaning LIB gain 13%
92. Laval-des-Rapides Leaning LIB gain 12%
93. Sherbrooke QS likely hold 5%
94. Sainte-Rose Likely LIB gain 5%
95. Mille-Îles Likely LIB hold 4%
96. Hull Likely LIB gain 4%
97. Vimont Likely LIB gain 4%
98. Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques QS likely hold 3%
99. Fabre Likely LIB gain 2%
100. Viau Leaning LIB hold 2%